Predict the Eastern Conference Standings

[hands11]

So in summary. Not really. Long ass post. lol

The entire team is actually up in the air long term but there is some talent here.
There are several pieces that are top athletes that look good as keepers. Mostly that is Wall and Beal.
There are several second tier pieces that could make it to first tier pieces. We will see.

By the trade deadline or even the end of the year, most of these questions should be answered. They will have a much better idea regarding who to keep. As for who they don't, they have lots of option for how to package the spare non-core pieces to add a piece or an asset, a trade up of their first round pick, that can turn into a piece.

But first they have to see what they have. Pretty much every player on the roster has something to prove. Most can start or back up and they have one extra piece at SG, SF and PF. Players need to separate themselves from the pack.

PG - Wall, Mack, Pargo, AJ, Crawford: We only need 2 core pieces
SG - Beal, Crawford, Martin, Webster: The can go 3 deep here as core pieces
SF - Trevor A, C Singleton, Webster, Martin, Booker: We only need 3 of those 5
PF - Nene, Ves, Booker, Kevin, Okafor: We only need 3 of those 5
C - Nene, Okafor, Kevin, Ves: We only need 2 or 3 to cover there

PG Its hard for me to see them keep both AJ and Pargo. I think AJ goes.
Wall, Pargo, Mack

SG Martin has a lot to prove. So does Crawford. They are in a battle. I think Webster sticks around.
Beal, Webster, Martin or Crawford

SF Trevor A is here for this year only most likely unless he totally steps up. Huge battle going on here.
Webster, Booker, C Singleton. Book need to show he can play SF this year. I think Trevor A or Chris goes.

PF Okafor is likely gone longer term. Ves has a ton to prove. Not sure if he sticks around or not.
Nene, Kevin, Ves, Booker

C Who know how this works out longer term. Is it Kev ? Maybe Ves ? Nene ?
Okafor, Kevin, Ves, Nene


So what could they get for Crawford, Trevor A or C Singleton, Okafor. Maybe not much more then a draft trade up. Who knows.

I guess Ves sticks around. They need his youth and height. But for the right player, you put Ves on the table along with even Nene or Booker.

So once Wall returns maybe they start and back up with

Wall/Pargo
Beal/Martin/Crawford
Webster/Trevor A
Nene/Booker
Okafor/Kevin

Ves backs up PF/C

Thats 11

Mack and C Singleton in reserve

Thats not so bad for a roster. I think Ves, Crawford, C Singleton end up taking a back set this year unless they show up big time. You can flip Okafor and Kev or Nene and Book but not both.

Mid term term we could see

Wall/Pargo
Beal/Webster
SF ?/ SF ?
Nene/Booker
Kevin/Ves

Longer term 2014/15

Wall/Pargo ?
Beal/Webster
SF ?/ SF ?
Kevin/Booker
Cousins/Ves

[payitforward]

...So once Wall returns maybe they start and back up with

Wall/Pargo
Beal/Martin/Crawford
Webster/Trevor A
Nene/Booker
Okafor/Kevin
...Ves backs up PF/C
...Mack and C Singleton in reserve

Thats not so bad for a roster. I think Ves, Crawford, C Singleton end up taking a back set this year unless they show up big time.

Oh man.... So the #6 and #18 pick in the draft 2 years ago "end up taking a back set this year", and this doesn't make you turn your gaze to the GM who picked them? Ditto the high round 2 pick that year (a *bunch* of guys picked after Mack are already flourishing in the league). And this is part of being optimistic? As in "...not so bad a roster"??

Over a period of 3 drafts in which we took (or one case acquired for nothing) a #1, #3, #6, #17, #18, #23, #28, #32 and #34 picks, you can point to two players, Wall and Beal, "that look good as keepers." You don't see a management problem in that?

...Mid term term we could see

Wall/Pargo
Beal/Webster
SF ?/ SF ?
Nene/Booker
Kevin/Ves

Pargo? He turned 33 3 weeks ago. You suggest keeping him over Price, who is a terrible player. Problem is that Pargo is an even worse player, substantially worse.

Webster? You have him penciled in straight through the years? He's never had a single good season. Not one. Not to mention that he's been injured several times. Not to mention that he is here on a one-year low cost contract. This makes you think they see him as someone to build on?

Longer term 2014/15

Wall/Pargo ?
Beal/Webster
SF ?/ SF ?
Kevin/Booker
Cousins/Ves

Now Pargo, whom we picked up only because Wall got hurt and there was no one else left, and who has never had even one year of average production as an NBA guard, and who by this time is 36, enters his 3d year as our backup point guard. Pargo !

And more years of Webster in your crystal ball. Most amazing of all, you have picked up Cousins and put him on our team. Why? Because he liked playing w/ John Wall 5 seasons earlier when they were college freshmen?

Wow. You can only re-arrange the same hand of cards so many times. It doesn't change.

[payitforward]

...So once Wall returns maybe they start and back up with

Wall/Pargo
Beal/Martin/Crawford
Webster/Trevor A
Nene/Booker
Okafor/Kevin
...Ves backs up PF/C
...Mack and C Singleton in reserve

Thats not so bad for a roster. I think Ves, Crawford, C Singleton end up taking a back set this year unless they show up big time.

Oh man.... So the #6 and #18 pick in the draft 2 years ago "end up taking a back set this year", and this doesn't make you turn your gaze to the GM who picked them? Ditto the high round 2 pick that year (a *bunch* of guys picked after Mack are already flourishing in the league). And this is part of being optimistic? As in "...not so bad a roster"??

Over a period of 3 drafts in which we took (or one case acquired for nothing) a #1, #3, #6, #17, #18, #23, #28, #32 and #34 picks, you can point to two players, Wall and Beal, "that look good as keepers." You don't see a management problem in that?

...Mid term term we could see

Wall/Pargo
Beal/Webster
SF ?/ SF ?
Nene/Booker
Kevin/Ves

Pargo? He turned 33 3 weeks ago. You suggest keeping him over Price, who is a terrible player. Problem is that Pargo is an even worse player, substantially worse.

Webster? You have him penciled in straight through the years? He's never had a single good season. Not one. Not to mention that he's been injured several times. Not to mention that he is here on a one-year low cost contract. This makes you think they see him as someone to build on?

Longer term 2014/15

Wall/Pargo ?
Beal/Webster
SF ?/ SF ?
Kevin/Booker
Cousins/Ves

Now Pargo, whom we picked up only because Wall got hurt and there was no one else left, and who has never had even one year of average production as an NBA guard, and who by this time is 36, enters his 3d year as our backup point guard. Pargo !

And more years of Webster in your crystal ball. Most amazing of all, you have picked up Cousins and put him on our team. Why? Because he liked playing w/ John Wall 5 seasons earlier when they were college freshmen?

Wow. No matter how or how often you re-arrange the same hand of cards, it doesn't change.

[hands11]

Hey Pay

Meds brother.

I'm just pulling crap out of my ass until we can watch some real ball games. lol

Relax. Try having some fun for once.

[montestewart]

We don't actually have any proof that payitforward isn't totally chilled. Posting might be his version of TM or hot yoga.

I'm not happy with the drafting either, but Seraphin and Booker look so far like they're pretty good values at their positions, and either (especially Seraphin) could still be a long term piece.

[DANNYLANDOVER]

Hello fellow Boulez/Wiz fans! I haven't posted in a while, but the new season is almost here. I really think we should try to make the playoffs this season even with Nene and Wall sidelined. There aren't really that many good players in next year's draft for us to tank for (Shabazz Muhammad should be the clear #1 pick). I also don't think that we have the young players we need to compete for a championship. If we don't look like we are getting that much better this coming season, I'm in favor of tanking the season after. The 2013 college freshman class could be the best draft class since the 2003 class. There's gonna be : Jabari Parker (my fav for now, the kid is a special talent), Andrew Wiggins (if he reclassifies), Nerlens Noel, Julius Randle (reminds me of Lebron James - a manchild), the Harrison twins, Jahlil Okafor (Emeka's cousin), and Aaron Gordon (this kid is crazy athletic, with mean handles, good shotblocking and a decent jumper - at 6'8, he can be a dominant wing). I hope Ernie and Ted change their stance of us having enough young players by then. I would even suggest trading Jan, Chris, and Jordan for a 2014 1st rd pick. Then again I'm not a GM and Ernie knows best . Can't wait to watch our boys play this season though!

[Nivek]

If Parker goes on a Mormon mission, it'll be 2015 at the earliest for him to enter the draft.

[hands11]

We don't actually have any proof that payitforward isn't totally chilled. Posting might be his version of TM or hot yoga.

I'm not happy with the drafting either, but Seraphin and Booker look so far like they're pretty good values at their positions, and either (especially Seraphin) could still be a long term piece.

One way of looking at your comment is this.

The two players you think might have long term value are two players who have played multiple years.
I remember posts by many here about Kevin being or looking like a bust. People even bashed on Booker. Even today some say trade him. Some think he is a core glue piece.

Ves isn't much different then Booker regarding his shooting while being a effort player. Booker had zero outside shoot and most here gave he no chance of ever gaining one. Well, he improved vastly in one year and from what I have seen in limited practice, he looks to have gotten a step better again.

So the two players in question here have played only part of one year and without a summer camp.
The two player that look like good value are coming into their 3rd years.

Its going to take most of this year to more fairly evaluate Ves and C Singleton's value. Ves as the 6th pick obviously has more to live up to.

Just saying.

[montestewart]

We don't actually have any proof that payitforward isn't totally chilled. Posting might be his version of TM or hot yoga.

I'm not happy with the drafting either, but Seraphin and Booker look so far like they're pretty good values at their positions, and either (especially Seraphin) could still be a long term piece.

One way of looking at your comment is this.

The two players you think might have long term value are two players who have played multiple years.
I remember posts by many here about Kevin being or looking like a bust. People even bashed on Booker. Even today some say trade him. Some think he is a core glue piece.

Ves isn't much different then Booker regarding his shooting while being a effort player. Booker had zero outside shoot and most here gave he no chance of ever gaining one. Well, he improved vastly in one year and from what I have seen in limited practice, he looks to have gotten a step better again.

So the two players in question here have played only part of one year and without a summer camp.
The two player that look like good value are coming into their 3rd years.

Its going to take most of this year to more fairly evaluate Ves and C Singleton's value. Ves as the 6th pick obviously has more to live up to.

Just saying.

Another way you could look at it was as a response to this post:

Over a period of 3 drafts in which we took (or one case acquired for nothing) a #1, #3, #6, #17, #18, #23, #28, #32 and #34 picks, you can point to two players, Wall and Beal, "that look good as keepers." You don't see a management problem in that?

I haven't bashed Seraphin or Booker, so there's no hypocrisy in calling them now good values for theirs draft positions. In case you've forgotten, Booker looked good his first year. And regardless of Vesely, Singleton, and Mack playing "only part of one year and without a summer camp," Leonard, Faried, and the other players payitforward and others compare them to played under the same conditions. You yourself in your posts seem to have relegated Vesely, Singleton, and Mack to a "backseat" (your word). I didn't know who to draft at #6 (not Vesely though) and I thought Singleton might be good value at #18, though I thought Faried would have been good value as well. Those who were more certain about Leonard and Faried have a right to bring that up, but regardless of who knew and who didn't know, EG has to answer for his drafts. He's had a lot of high draft picks over the last four.

look hands, time will tell, the past will be the present in the future, and then we will see what we will see when that happens, but for now we will just wait and see, and then we will see whatever we see, when we see it. But none of us have a crystal meth, and everything else is just speculation, and the future is very hazy. Can't wait for the season to stunt.

[payitforward]

We don't actually have any proof that payitforward isn't totally chilled. Posting might be his version of TM or hot yoga.

I'm not happy with the drafting either, but Seraphin and Booker look so far like they're pretty good values at their positions, and either (especially Seraphin) could still be a long term piece.

I come from a long long tradition of argumentation, interpretation and debate. Often the least important question is... "does this matter?"

It is said that a talented "yeshiva-bocher" (rabbinic student of Talmud) can give you at least a dozen citations proving it's ok to eat pork! I'm not a rabbinic student (and all the less a rabbi!), but that's the tradition I come from. I hope that at least it's entertaining. Occasionally. Sorry, hands....

[hands11]

I see what you are saying in general regarding them playing under the same conditions but more specifically, they didn't.

One played for SA. The other for Denver. Both were and have been playoff teams. Those are very different situations from what the Wizards were going through.

And just to be clear.. Lots of teams passed on those players. Not just the Wizards.

That said, I wanted the Wizards to trade down if they could and if they did, I had them also taking different players then they did. But that didn't happen. Had it happened, I don't believe they would have Beal now because they would likely have gotten just enough better.. faster..to not get a top 3 pick. Would those other two players be better vs Beal, C Singleton and Ves.... Maybe... Much of that will be determined by how good Beal is. If you had to decide today, you would rather have Faried and K Lenard for sure.

But it didn't go down like that and we really don't have that crystal ball to see how it will work out.

I like this.

Time will tell, the present will be the past in the future, and then we will see what we will see when that happens, but for now we will just wait and see, and then we will see whatever we see, when we see it.

[payitforward]

...

Over a period of 3 drafts in which we took (or one case acquired for nothing) a #1, #3, #6, #17, #18, #23, #28, #32 and #34 picks...

Seraphin or Booker, ...good values for theirs draft positions.

I agree -- in 2 senses: they both look like they'll have solid decade-long NBA careers (reasonably rare at #17/23) and when you compare them to who else was available and how those guys have done so far, you don't see much that would have been preferable. I think Damion James is going to turn out to be a very good NBA player, and obviously Landry Fields was an enormous bargain at #39.

...the past will be the present in the future, and then we will see what we will see when that happens, but for now we will just wait and see, and then we will see whatever we see, when we see it. But none of us have a crystal meth, and everything else is just speculation, and the future is very hazy. Can't wait for the season to stunt.

I'm with you -- wherever it is you are!!

[payitforward]

(Leonard and Faried played for) ...playoff teams. Those are very different situations from what the Wizards were going through.

And ...Lots of teams passed on those players. Not just the Wizards.

Had it happened (that we picked L and F), I don't believe they would have Beal now.... Would those other two players be better vs Beal, C Singleton and Ves.... Maybe... Much of that will be determined by how good Beal is. If you had to decide today, you would rather have Faried and K Lenard for sure.... But it didn't go down like that and we really don't have that crystal ball to see how it will work out.

So... this is the kind of thinking and (to me non)analysis that I'm often puzzled by, Hands.

Do you think that playoff teams exist independent of the players they draft and otherwise acquire? The opposite is true. Leonard and Faried are better than Ves and Singleton. Full stop. Better players. A better GM picks better players.

As to "we wouldn't have Beal..." this too is specious. It reduces to "it's better to be worse," which is nonsense. Moreover, who knows, we might have had to draft Andre Drummond, and who knows we might see him turn out to be a star, in which case we'd have Leonard, Faried and a star center.

And it's not "if you had to decide today...", it's not hindsight in which e.g. Faried looks like a better player than Singleton. I would have picked him *then* over Singleton. In a minute. I didn't like Vesely then either. I would have picked Leonard w/ a sense of disappointment, and then I would have been delighted by how he showed.

[montestewart]

hands, I was just talking about the strike-shortened season, but you're right that Leonard and Faried came into better situations (better systems and mix of players) than our draft picks. I'm not giving up on them after one year, but as a group, they have yet to show they were worth their picks.

[Zonkerbl]

"Over a period of 3 drafts in which we took (or one case acquired for nothing) a #1, #3, #6, #17, #18, #23, #28, #32 and #34 picks"

Lessee...
Wall #1, Beal #3, Ves #6, Seraphin #17, Singleton #18, Booker #23, Mack #34, Sato #32. Who was #28? Is that Crawford? He was 27.

Lessee... in the same three years, the Spurs picked Kawhi Leonard at #15, James Anderson at #20, Ryan Richards at #49, Cory Joseph at #29, Ádám Hanga at #59, and Marcus Denmon at #59.

The Spurs starting five consists of Duncan, drafted #1 in 1997, Tony Parker, drafted 28th in 2001, Manu Ginobili, the 28th pick of the 2nd round in 1999, Boris Diaw acquired in a trade, and Kawhi Leonard picked 15th in 2011. Other notables are Dejuan Blair, picked in the 2nd round playing backup center, Danny Green, acquired in a trade, and Stephen Jackson, acquired in a trade.

Duncan was luck. Tony Parker and Manu Ginobili are the main reason the Spurs have been successful for more than a decade. Kawhi Leonard and Dejuan Blair were good picks, but basically the Spurs have been milking one lucky pick and two amazing picks, one late first round and the other late second round, one picked in 1997, another in 1999, and a third in 2001, for ten years. I'm not dissing the Spurs -- it's one thing to follow the OKC model, have lots of high picks and make hay with them, and another to build a championship squad with one #1 overall, a late first rounder and a late late late second rounder. That's amazing.

Compared to OKC, we have not done as well. Wall is not as good as Kevin Durant and arguably never will be. We have Beal and Ves vs. Westbrook and Harden. That's not a totally fair comparison since Harden was a #3 and Westbrook a #4. Who in Ves' draft was as good as Westbrook at #6? Nobody. Even if we had the #4 we'd have what, Tristan Thompson? Would that even be an improvement?

Compared to the Spurs we have not done as well either, with Wall, Beal and Ves vs. Duncan, Parker, and Ginobili. But that squad was put together over 5 years, so it's not yet fair to compare how we did. Although if we are going to catch up to the Spurs we are going to have to come up with some solid late first round picks. Seraphin is a candidate. Are Ves and Seraphin equivalent to a Ginobili? Is Wall + Beal anything close to Duncan + Parker?

Anyway, of the players on that list at the beginning of the post, Wall and Beal are the only players you can imagine starting on a championship team. Seraphin and Booker are keepers, with Seraphin possibly being a starter, if he can improve his rebounding. Ves is looking like a relative bust -- he'll probably turn into a serviceable starter eventually, but value wise he looks like a 10-15 pick, not a #6.

I can see Wall, Beal, Seraphin, and Nene starting on a playoff team, if Nene can stay healthy. But given Wall's disappointing play so far, I just don't see the pathway to a championship. But the draft has been ok. Wall, Beal, Seraphin, Booker, maybe Ves -- that's ok. Not great, but not that bad either.

[nate33]

From the General Board:

http://philadelphia.cbslocal.com/2012/10/10/howard-eskin-bynums-injury-perhaps-more-serious-than-sixers-indicate/

PHILADELPHIA (CBS) – Andrew Bynum will miss all of Sixers training camp, and will likely not see any playing time during preseason games as he rests his knees. According to the team, Bynum not playing is a precautionary measure “in order to maximize the therapeutic effects of the Orthokine therapy he received earlier this month.”

The Sixers did also say that Bynum was “diagnosed with a bone bruise of the medial femoral chondyle of his right knee.”

94WIP’s Howard Eskin says that he is “getting the sense there is a more serious injury with Andrew Bynum’s knee than the Sixers are telling us. I will go as far as saying I think the Lakers may have given the Sixers damaged goods.”

[fishercob]

helps our playoff chances a lot.

[LyricalRico]

^ Also sheds light on why Orlando took the package they did.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

^ Also sheds light on why Orlando took the package they did.

Orlando did somewhat like Memphis did when they traded away Pau Gasol. They got picks, eventually drafted Marc Gasol, and they're looking better for not going for the quick replacement.

[montestewart]

^ Also sheds light on why Orlando took the package they did.

Orlando did somewhat like Memphis did when they traded away Pau Gasol. They got picks, eventually drafted Marc Gasol, and they're looking better for not going for the quick replacement.

It's funny, I saw this guy on the general board (or maybe the trade board) being ridiculed for contending that Memphis got the better of that deal. Granted, he made his case somewhat confusedly, but he did make the case that their current big rotation came from the Pau Gasol trade.