Predict the Eastern Conference Standings

[BruceO]

Miami
Indiana
Boston
Brooklyn
New York
Phiiladelphia
Atlanta
Washington

A bk ny playoffs match would be something phenomenal

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

If anyone is interested, this b r article has predictions of the record of every NBA team.

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1270 ... y-nba-team

Washington is predicted to go 30-52.

[nate33]

If anyone is interested, this b r article has predictions of the record of every NBA team.

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1270 ... y-nba-team

Washington is predicted to go 30-52.

The Wizards played at a 25-win pace overall last year. They played at a 36-win pace after the Nene trade despite Nene missing half the games. They added Okafor, Ariza and Beal and figure to get better-than-average improvement out of Wall and Vesely. And BR predicts just 30 wins? I'll take the over on that one.

EDIT: And God do I hate that slideshow style that they print their articles. I'm not going to hit "next" 32 freaking times just to read one article.

[closg00]

PROJECTION: Every year, the Wizards look like they have the young talent to make a quantum leap. And every year, they act the collective fool and end up back in the lottery. With apologies to The Who, I won’t get fooled again. Even in the Eastern Conference, Washington has a ton of work to do to even sniff the postseason.

http://www.sheridanhoops.com/2012/07/25 ... -analysis/

Sheridan Hoops

[2Mas]

1. Miami - Good & added Allen
2. Bos - Got younger, athletic & deep
3. Indy - More depth & much needed experience
4. NYK - Talented, knucklehead but seems like they'll be for real
5. BKN - Great 5, no depth, lots of excitement & good reg season team.
6. CHI - No Rose but still talented, deep & well coached.
7. PHI - Mature & experience are vital. Lost some talent but some back. Same result
8. ATL - No JJ but better off in future. Healthy beat front court will be solid & should be in.

9. ORL - No D12 for a bit & more drama then a girl, but have some talent. The rook big will be solid.
10. WAS - Really turned the franchise around. One more year & you guys will be in the playoffs.
11. TOR - Gonna be much better. Bargs healthy. Lowry, Ross, Fields, Jonas will be 4 new rotation players. If Ed Davis takes a big step this year, they can be even higher.
12. MIL - Good solid team. That's about it though. Need a scorer up front & too much young prospects.
13. DET - Last year of them stinking. AD & GM will be the future with Knight. Another wing rook & they're off.
14. CLE - Nice young core, doubt they make the jump though. Waiters is a stretch & need a front court.
15. CHA - Good pick ups, another year are being crappy & then we'll see much improvement.

[The Consiglieri]

If anyone is interested, this b r article has predictions of the record of every NBA team.

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1270 ... y-nba-team

Washington is predicted to go 30-52.

The Wizards played at a 25-win pace overall last year. They played at a 36-win pace after the Nene trade despite Nene missing half the games. They added Okafor, Ariza and Beal and figure to get better-than-average improvement out of Wall and Vesely. And BR predicts just 30 wins? I'll take the over on that one.

EDIT: And God do I hate that slideshow style that they print their articles. I'm not going to hit "next" 32 freaking times just to read one article.

It's hard to understand how or why they'd ever format articles that way. It has to cost them loads of readers. I don't read anything there unless its specifically about a team im interested in because its such a pain in the arse to read.

As for all of those factors you mention, the 25 win pace was built heavily upon a late winning streak, before that our pace was total arse, about 17-18 wins. When you run off 5 or 6 straight wins late it distorts things. So did playing a lot of teams resting players because we sucked, and/or they didnt need a win. I just don't buy it, at all. I do think we'll see an improvement, but it's going to be small, i believe a 30 win prediction is infinitely more reasonable than a 40 win prediction though I tend to slot in somewhere between 33 and 36.

[montestewart]

If anyone is interested, this b r article has predictions of the record of every NBA team.

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1270 ... y-nba-team

Washington is predicted to go 30-52.

The Wizards played at a 25-win pace overall last year. They played at a 36-win pace after the Nene trade despite Nene missing half the games. They added Okafor, Ariza and Beal and figure to get better-than-average improvement out of Wall and Vesely. And BR predicts just 30 wins? I'll take the over on that one.

EDIT: And God do I hate that slideshow style that they print their articles. I'm not going to hit "next" 32 freaking times just to read one article.

It's hard to understand how or why they'd ever format articles that way. It has to cost them loads of readers. I don't read anything there unless its specifically about a team im interested in because its such a pain in the arse to read.

As for all of those factors you mention, the 25 win pace was built heavily upon a late winning streak, before that our pace was total arse, about 17-18 wins. When you run off 5 or 6 straight wins late it distorts things. So did playing a lot of teams resting players because we sucked, and/or they didnt need a win. I just don't buy it, at all. I do think we'll see an improvement, but it's going to be small, i believe a 30 win prediction is infinitely more reasonable than a 40 win prediction though I tend to slot in somewhere between 33 and 36.

I think that format results in higher ad revenue, even though there are fewer readers, because all the click throughs result in so many additional pages of ads.

PS: I was figuring this team could hit mid to late 30s with last year's team and a decent 1st round pick (a scorer).

[nate33]

As for all of those factors you mention, the 25 win pace was built heavily upon a late winning streak, before that our pace was total arse, about 17-18 wins. When you run off 5 or 6 straight wins late it distorts things. So did playing a lot of teams resting players because we sucked, and/or they didnt need a win. I just don't buy it, at all. I do think we'll see an improvement, but it's going to be small, i believe a 30 win prediction is infinitely more reasonable than a 40 win prediction though I tend to slot in somewhere between 33 and 36.

You can discount the late winning streak if you want, but let's also acknowledge that Nene missed 14 out of 25 games. With Nene reasonably healthy, it would have been much better than a 36-win pace

This team, with Nene on the floor, is rock solid. It was more than just a few cheap wins against resting opponents.

But there's no sense arguing about it now. Time will tell.

[Kanyewest]

It's hard to understand how or why they'd ever format articles that way. It has to cost them loads of readers. I don't read anything there unless its specifically about a team im interested in because its such a pain in the arse to read.

As for all of those factors you mention, the 25 win pace was built heavily upon a late winning streak, before that our pace was total arse, about 17-18 wins. When you run off 5 or 6 straight wins late it distorts things. So did playing a lot of teams resting players because we sucked, and/or they didnt need a win. I just don't buy it, at all. I do think we'll see an improvement, but it's going to be small, i believe a 30 win prediction is infinitely more reasonable than a 40 win prediction though I tend to slot in somewhere between 33 and 36.

I think the Wizards played Miami twice without LeBron, Wade, and Bosh which were two gimme wins. The Wizards also played the Bobcats and the Bulls without Rose and Deng.

[The Consiglieri]

I was paying a lot of attention to that down the stretch as I was praying we'd suck enough to lock in a pick no lower than 5 as I thought it was a 4 to 5 elite draft. We nearly screwed the pooch w/that winning streak and it scared the hell out of me all along as I wondered if teams like Chicago and Miami would rest against us if the #1 seed was out of contention and w/other crummy teams in half of the last 12, the situation was ripe for a late season run. Sure enough it happened, but we still lande a top 3 pick.

Nene could make a huge diff, I didnotice that the team played exceptionally well with him, and were much better, I also felt it was way too small of a sample to project out from, and additionally Nene, Emeka, and Ariza have all been injury prone f memory serves in recent years so I tend to discount the idea that they equal anything necessairly. I think Im being pretty reasonable in projecting essentially an 8-12 win improvement versus our general, pre-run, pace from last year. I think that sort of improvement is deeply impressive, and with some (a few posters showed me that there were 1 or 2 examples of substantial improvement even w/o a franchise player added) evidence that teams can turn these sort of moves into 8-14 win differences, the team could certainly emerge much improved in 2012-2013. Hell I actually expect it, it's just that for me, we were on a 17-18 win pace for 90% of last season, so in my view, a major improvment on that is 33-36 wins, and a reasonable expectation is us to improve to somewhere between a floor of 27 or 28 wins, to a ceiling of 36-37. That's essetially a 10-15 win improvement. I view 40+ is substantially unreasonable as it suggests the team will essentially post a 20 win or more improvement on 2011-2012 without adding any player anyone would call a legit franchise differerence maker. Instead the improvements are all of the "good" to above average to averge sort. That should help, but 20 win difference help? Not remotely in my view, and I think I may actually be a bit too glass is half full even suggesting 36 or 37 wins is possible all thins considered. To me 40+? That would probably be he one of the most impresive one season improvements ever.

[montestewart]

It's hard to understand how or why they'd ever format articles that way. It has to cost them loads of readers. I don't read anything there unless its specifically about a team im interested in because its such a pain in the arse to read.

As for all of those factors you mention, the 25 win pace was built heavily upon a late winning streak, before that our pace was total arse, about 17-18 wins. When you run off 5 or 6 straight wins late it distorts things. So did playing a lot of teams resting players because we sucked, and/or they didnt need a win. I just don't buy it, at all. I do think we'll see an improvement, but it's going to be small, i believe a 30 win prediction is infinitely more reasonable than a 40 win prediction though I tend to slot in somewhere between 33 and 36.

I think the Wizards played Miami twice without LeBron, Wade, and Bosh which were two gimme wins. The Wizards also played the Bobcats and the Bulls without Rose and Deng.

When you trade players that suck the life out of the team late, and add a winner and leader late, and young players who had no training camp and are playing in a fiasco develop late, and the team coalesces late, it tends to eventually offer a more accurate view of the future.

With a hobbled Nene playing limited minutes, they beat the eventual NBA Champion Heat by 34 at home, and eked out a victory on the road too. And they didn't even have Nene when they edged tied-for-best-record Bulls. They won those six games by an average of nearly 15 points. A healthier Nene, a trending upward Wall, Seraphin, and Vesely, the addition of Beal, and the retaining of Almond, and I see no reason they won't continue that trend and finish 82-0.

[nate33]

Nene could make a huge diff, I didnotice that the team played exceptionally well with him, and were much better, I also felt it was way too small of a sample to project out from, and additionally Nene, Emeka, and Ariza have all been injury prone f memory serves in recent years so I tend to discount the idea that they equal anything necessairly. I think Im being pretty reasonable in projecting essentially an 8-12 win improvement versus our general, pre-run, pace from last year. I think that sort of improvement is deeply impressive, and with some (a few posters showed me that there were 1 or 2 examples of substantial improvement even w/o a franchise player added) evidence that teams can turn these sort of moves into 8-14 win differences, the team could certainly emerge much improved in 2012-2013. Hell I actually expect it, it's just that for me, we were on a 17-18 win pace for 90% of last season, so in my view, a major improvment on that is 33-36 wins, and a reasonable expectation is us to improve to somewhere between a floor of 27 or 28 wins, to a ceiling of 36-37. That's essetially a 10-15 win improvement.

I think a 10-15 win improvement is reasonable, but I fail to see why you consider the Wizard an 18-win team last year. They won 20 games in a 66-game season, which is equivalent to 25 wins.

Even if you ignore the 6 game win streak, the post-trade team still had a -3.1 point differential. I'm talking about the worst possible sampling of games: the 19-game stretch after the trade during which Nene missed 13 of the games, but before the win streak at the end of the year. That sampling of games excludes the two Miami wins, the Chicago win, and one of the Charlotte wins. It also incorporates the embarrassing 38-point loss to New York. Even in that awful, injury-depleted period of time with no Nene, no Booker (and no McGee or Young), the Wizards had an OffEff of 99.1 and a DefEff of 102.2. That's a -3.1 point differential. The Pythagorean Wins Formula says that a -3.1 point differential is a 32-win pace. (If you ignore the New York game, the Wizards had just a -1.0 differential, which is a 38-win pace.)

So we're talking about taking a 32-win team, and adding Nene, Okafor, Booker, Ariza and Beal; plus an improved Wall, Vesely and Seraphin. With reasonable health, I expect around 38-42 wins. This year, 38 wins might be enough to squeak into the playoffs.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

I think that format results in higher ad revenue, even though there are fewer readers, because all the click throughs result in so many additional pages of ads.

PS: I was figuring this team could hit mid to late 30s with last year's team and a decent 1st round pick (a scorer).

Me, too, monte. My consternation with the Okafor/Ariza trade is it didn't seem necessary. The young Wizards seemed to be creeping towards respectability already. I wondered initially if the deal actually didn't make the team regress when I looked at what those two players have done the past couple seasons.

As far as this season's prediction goes, a lot of the push at the end last season coincided with good play from James Singleton and the trio of Mason, Martin, and Evans hitting outside shots. Mo Almond wouldn't let them lose, either.

Should have brought Mo back, man. I would be predicting 45 wins if they did.

[GhostsOfGil]

It's hard to understand how or why they'd ever format articles that way. It has to cost them loads of readers. I don't read anything there unless its specifically about a team im interested in because its such a pain in the arse to read.

As for all of those factors you mention, the 25 win pace was built heavily upon a late winning streak, before that our pace was total arse, about 17-18 wins. When you run off 5 or 6 straight wins late it distorts things. So did playing a lot of teams resting players because we sucked, and/or they didnt need a win. I just don't buy it, at all. I do think we'll see an improvement, but it's going to be small, i believe a 30 win prediction is infinitely more reasonable than a 40 win prediction though I tend to slot in somewhere between 33 and 36.

I think the Wizards played Miami twice without LeBron, Wade, and Bosh which were two gimme wins. The Wizards also played the Bobcats and the Bulls without Rose and Deng.

Keep in mind the Wizards could have easily won those 3 games against ATL (x2) and DET (15+ point leads blown in the second half). Those are the the type of games that I expect the Wizards to easily close out next year.

[The Consiglieri]

Nene could make a huge diff, I didnotice that the team played exceptionally well with him, and were much better, I also felt it was way too small of a sample to project out from, and additionally Nene, Emeka, and Ariza have all been injury prone f memory serves in recent years so I tend to discount the idea that they equal anything necessairly. I think Im being pretty reasonable in projecting essentially an 8-12 win improvement versus our general, pre-run, pace from last year. I think that sort of improvement is deeply impressive, and with some (a few posters showed me that there were 1 or 2 examples of substantial improvement even w/o a franchise player added) evidence that teams can turn these sort of moves into 8-14 win differences, the team could certainly emerge much improved in 2012-2013. Hell I actually expect it, it's just that for me, we were on a 17-18 win pace for 90% of last season, so in my view, a major improvment on that is 33-36 wins, and a reasonable expectation is us to improve to somewhere between a floor of 27 or 28 wins, to a ceiling of 36-37. That's essetially a 10-15 win improvement.

I think a 10-15 win improvement is reasonable, but I fail to see why you consider the Wizard an 18-win team last year. They won 20 games in a 66-game season, which is equivalent to 25 wins.

Even if you ignore the 6 game win streak, the post-trade team still had a -3.1 point differential. I'm talking about the worst possible sampling of games: the 19-game stretch after the trade during which Nene missed 13 of the games, but before the win streak at the end of the year. That sampling of games excludes the two Miami wins, the Chicago win, and one of the Charlotte wins. It also incorporates the embarrassing 38-point loss to New York. Even in that awful, injury-depleted period of time with no Nene, no Booker (and no McGee or Young), the Wizards had an OffEff of 99.1 and a DefEff of 102.2. That's a -3.1 point differential. The Pythagorean Wins Formula says that a -3.1 point differential is a 32-win pace. (If you ignore the New York game, the Wizards had just a -1.0 differential, which is a 38-win pace.)

So we're talking about taking a 32-win team, and adding Nene, Okafor, Booker, Ariza and Beal; plus an improved Wall, Vesely and Seraphin. With reasonable health, I expect around 38-42 wins. This year, 38 wins might be enough to squeak into the playoffs.

The reason I believe they were a 17-18 win last year was because for the vast majority of the season they played like that. I've seen the team repeatedly distort it's overall record, and projections with late season runs in april in 2 of the past 3 years. The runs didn't mean squat. I do agree that this run has certainly qualities to recommend it, namely that the team improved as it ditched the last of the idiots, and benched Blatche permanently. The team as it currently is constructed, is definitively better in terms of chemistry, talent and leadership by miles than last years team. however, i agree w/Cuban that last years stats are largely bollocks, the schedule was nutty and resulted in a massive pile of abberations, so I tend to only value the thing the most sense to me, the teams track record during the meat of the schedule, which was a 17-18 win team. I then factor in the improvements that were made, and adjust my projection in terms of chemistry, growth of young players, and FA additions.

In my view last years team was basically a 17-49 team. I dont buy AT ALL the late season win streak. I think it was largely a product of team resting a ton of starters and throwing games, and a nice collection of weak sisters down the stretch inflating the record to a # that is not remotely reasonable. Even if I buy it, and the team is a 25 win team last year, which I dont, I would still say bumping them up 8-12 wins, which my ceiling of 33-37 suggests is their most promising possibility, is at its core, borderline homerism (in terms of 36-37 wins, not 33 or 34).

At the end of the day I suppose we're just not going to meet on this. I technically think its possible we could reach the heights you imagine, but that is the highest of the high end possibilities, and I don't typically believe its reasonable to expect such things. Granted the 17-18 win rate is as distorted as the 25 win rate, and that all the stats should be tossed, good and bad, but at the end of the day, to me, this is a classic 9-11 seed team, typically a team that wins between 30-37 games.

The only advantage i see is the chemistry additions and additions by subtractions, and the fact that the East is freaking horrific compared to the west.

I also tend to buy the views of people outside washington more than us, I tend to think Im too cynical, and others are a bit too hopeful, and I think some middle ground is the most reasonable. I haven't seen anyone, anywhere, other than this board projecting a playoff run, and that more or less dovetails with my expectations. I expect them to be improved, but i suspect the paucity of elite talent, and quality depth (in certain areas outside of the 4 and the 5) will prove telling. I would be shocked if we aren't in the lottery next year (barring some stupid youth for vets trade), and I am already slotting us in for a 7-13 pick on draft day (a draft that seems to have a lot of small forwards slotted to go right around there, which is nice).

[LyricalRico]

I haven't seen anyone, anywhere, other than this board projecting a playoff run, and that more or less dovetails with my expectations.

Well, I always take the media outlets with a grain of salt. Even when listening to some of the local media, you can tell that they don't watch many games and just fall back on generalizations based on the past in their "analysis". So I wouldn't expect many in the national media to really know anything substantive about the Wizards either.

But a number of fans of other teams, both on RealGM boards and those I interact with in my life, seem to think that the Wizards have taken a clear step forward with their moves since February. And when I mention "playoffs", they don't go all Jim Mora on me. They may not agree with me 100%, but (anecdotally) I do think that many outsiders are more positive about the team than some here.

[The Consiglieri]

It's hard to understand how or why they'd ever format articles that way. It has to cost them loads of readers. I don't read anything there unless its specifically about a team im interested in because its such a pain in the arse to read.

As for all of those factors you mention, the 25 win pace was built heavily upon a late winning streak, before that our pace was total arse, about 17-18 wins. When you run off 5 or 6 straight wins late it distorts things. So did playing a lot of teams resting players because we sucked, and/or they didnt need a win. I just don't buy it, at all. I do think we'll see an improvement, but it's going to be small, i believe a 30 win prediction is infinitely more reasonable than a 40 win prediction though I tend to slot in somewhere between 33 and 36.

I think the Wizards played Miami twice without LeBron, Wade, and Bosh which were two gimme wins. The Wizards also played the Bobcats and the Bulls without Rose and Deng.

Keep in mind the Wizards could have easily won those 3 games against ATL (x2) and DET (15+ point leads blown in the second half). Those are the the type of games that I expect the Wizards to easily close out next year.

You can always do that the other way though. We beat a bunch of elite teams last year, OKC, LA, Chicago, and Miami twice. All of these results were ridiculous, and highly unlikely if not for the schedule.

[Ruzious]

I haven't seen anyone, anywhere, other than this board projecting a playoff run, and that more or less dovetails with my expectations.

Well, I always take the media outlets with a grain of salt. Even when listening to some of the local media, you can tell that they don't watch many games and just fall back on generalizations based on the past in their "analysis". So I wouldn't expect many in the national media to really know anything substantive about the Wizards either.

But a number of fans of other teams, both on RealGM boards and those I interact with in my life, seem to think that the Wizards have taken a clear step forward with their moves since February. And when I mention "playoffs", they don't go all Jim Mora on me. They may not agree with me 100%, but (anecdotally) I do think that many outsiders are more positive about the team than some here.

Judging from the pre-season prediction threads we have every year, do us posters generally underestimate the wins the Wiz get or overestimate them... by a lot?

[GhostsOfGil]

Judging from the pre-season prediction threads we have every year, do us posters generally underestimate the wins the Wiz get or overestimate them... by a lot?

IIRC this forum is usually over optimistic about our win predictions. Even during the Gil era, there was talk about us being "dark horse contenders."

You can always do that the other way though. We beat a bunch of elite teams last year, OKC, LA, Chicago, and Miami twice. All of these results were ridiculous, and highly unlikely if not for the schedule.

Yes but our record against >= 500 teams last year was terrible. We will still lose to the top tier teams but our ability to close out sub 500 teams will be difference in this years win column and last years.

[Ruzious]

Judging from the pre-season prediction threads we have every year, do us posters generally underestimate the wins the Wiz get or overestimate them... by a lot?

IIRC this forum is usually over optimistic about our win predictions. Even during the Gil era, there was talk about us being "dark horse contenders."

And have we learned anything from that? I don't think so.