Predict the Eastern Conference Standings

[dobrojim]

I would not be surprised if their record was pretty good. I would assume there
is serious money involved.

[hands11]

Vegas over/under Win Projections

Code: Select all

EASTERN CONFERENCE
RANK    TEAM    O/U
1       MIA     60.5
2       BOS     51.5
3       IND     51.5
4       CHI     47.5
5       PHI     47.5
6       NYK     45.5
7       ATL     43.5
8       BRO     43.5
9       MIL     36.5
10      CLE     32.5
11      DET     32.5
12      TOR     31.5
13      WAS     31.5
14      ORL     24.5
15      CHA     21.5

WESTERN CONFERENCE
RANK    TEAM    O/U
1       OKC     60.5
2       LAL     59.5
3       SAS     55.5
4       DEN     49.5
5       LAC     48.5
6       MEM     48.5
7       DAL     45.5
8       UTA     42.5
9       MIN     39.5
10      POR     35.5
11      GSW     34.5
12      PHX     34.5
13      HOU     30.5
14      SAC     29.5
15      NOH     25.5



Wow. They have us below Detroit and Cleveland? I just don't get it. We had a superior SRS ranking than both teams last year, and we did much more in the offseason to improve. We had the higher pick and acquired a more NBA-ready player, and we added two NBA starters via trade, Okafor and Ariza. And that doesn't even factor the very high likelihood that our massive post-Nene-trade statistical improvement had at least some tangible foundation other than pure low-sample size error.

I think I my have to put some money down this year then. Hell they had 23 wins in 2010 with this roster.

http://espn.go.com/nba/team/stats/_/nam ... on-wizards

[Zonkerbl]

I don't know, with Wall out for the first month, 31.5 wins sounds about right.

[payitforward]

I don't know, with Wall out for the first month, 31.5 wins sounds about right.

They are likely incorporating some kind of odds on Nene being injured, Okafor ditto, and the actual time needed for Wall to return.

If I were betting against this prediction, I'd be looking for some other wager somewhere to protect myself against, in particular, Nene being out a lot.

Still, at this point on the cusp of the season, I'm ready to ride the hope vector, or at least the best scenario vector. And that despite my dissatisfaction w/ the direction Ernie's taken the team. IOW... still a fan!

[hands11]

No doubt the Wall and Nene stuff has some effect. Then add the fact they are just UNR.

No one is going to believe until they do it. This board should be proof of that.

[montestewart]

Then add the fact they are just UNR.

University of Nevada, Reno?

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Vegas over/under Win Projections

Code: Select all

EASTERN CONFERENCE
RANK    TEAM    O/U
1       MIA     60.5
2       BOS     51.5
3       IND     51.5
4       CHI     47.5
5       PHI     47.5
6       NYK     45.5
7       ATL     43.5
8       BRO     43.5
9       MIL     36.5
10      CLE     32.5
11      DET     32.5
12      TOR     31.5
13      WAS     31.5
14      ORL     24.5
15      CHA     21.5

WESTERN CONFERENCE
RANK    TEAM    O/U
1       OKC     60.5
2       LAL     59.5
3       SAS     55.5
4       DEN     49.5
5       LAC     48.5
6       MEM     48.5
7       DAL     45.5
8       UTA     42.5
9       MIN     39.5
10      POR     35.5
11      GSW     34.5
12      PHX     34.5
13      HOU     30.5
14      SAC     29.5
15      NOH     25.5



Wow. They have us below Detroit and Cleveland? I just don't get it. We had a superior SRS ranking than both teams last year, and we did much more in the offseason to improve. We had the higher pick and acquired a more NBA-ready player, and we added two NBA starters via trade, Okafor and Ariza. And that doesn't even factor the very high likelihood that our massive post-Nene-trade statistical improvement had at least some tangible foundation other than pure low-sample size error.

I totally get it. Varejao is healthy. He is as good or better than Nene IMO. He impacts games on the boards as well as defensively. The Cavs have an all star-talent PG, who is clearly a much better player than John Wall. The projection counts him as healthy from day one. Waiters may not be ready from day one, but Boobie Gibson, Alonzo Gee, and Kelenna Azubuike are skilled players. The other guys the Cavs drafted are very solid. Kevin Jones from West Virginia could have a Glen Davis stat line. Tyler Zeller is a much more complete player than Jan Vesely. Their draft was excellent. Tristan Thompson is a solid defender. I like the Cavs more than the Wizards and see why they're predicted to finish better.

It's just one game more according the Vegas odds. We shall see.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Jim: This is the line established by at least one Vegas oddsmaker before betting commences. Over at the APBRmetrics board, some of the members have been trying their own record-projection methods vs. Vegas for the past few years. The Vegas line usually comes closer to predicting final records than most of the stat-goober methods.

It really is amazing how well the folks who make the Vegas line do.

I'm betting and hoping they are wrong at least in a couple instances.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Vegas over/under Win Projections

Code: Select all

EASTERN CONFERENCE
RANK    TEAM    O/U
1       MIA     60.5
2       BOS     51.5
3       IND     51.5
4       CHI     47.5
5       PHI     47.5
6       NYK     45.5
7       ATL     43.5
8       BRO     43.5
9       MIL     36.5
10      CLE     32.5
11      DET     32.5
12      TOR     31.5
13      WAS     31.5
14      ORL     24.5
15      CHA     21.5

WESTERN CONFERENCE
RANK    TEAM    O/U
1       OKC     60.5
2       LAL     59.5
3       SAS     55.5
4       DEN     49.5
5       LAC     48.5
6       MEM     48.5
7       DAL     45.5
8       UTA     42.5
9       MIN     39.5
10      POR     35.5
11      GSW     34.5
12      PHX     34.5
13      HOU     30.5
14      SAC     29.5
15      NOH     25.5



The Bobcats will win more than 21.5. I don't bet but I will on that. The Hornets will win more than 25 games. I don't think the Suns will win 34 games. I don't think the Grizzlies will win 48.

I think Spurs will win far less games this season, just a hunch. It's over.

I think the Magic will win slightly less than 24 games. I also think the Wizards will win less than 31 games.

Our record last year extrapolated over 82 games was 25 wins. You don't think all the offseason changes are worth more than 5 wins?

We effectively traded McGee, Lewis and Young for Nene, Okafor, Ariza, Webster and Beal. We should also see some notable improvement from Wall, Vesely, Seraphin and Booker based on their age and work ethic. How can that not be worth 5 games?

Nene missed some games and appeared to be gimpy at the Olympics. Wrong side of thirty now to assume he's going to post the same numbers he did when he played for the Wizards. The better bet is he misses at least 10-15 games. Okafor's rebounding looked good before last year, when he really struggled and missed many games. He's coming to DC as a role player on the down side of his career. He has not played with a passion. He did not make the Hornets anything but worse than they were with Tyson Chandler. Okafor can rebound but is he and upgrade? (I actually think he's a wildcard who really could bounce back in a good way.) Betting money says expect the average of how he's played over the last 3 seasons. Average at best. Ariza played well for the Lakers and in a contract year. He has been average at his best and below average over much of the past three seasons. While he's an upgrade over Singleton, how much does Ariza help a team? He did not help the Hornets.

The improvements the Wizards made will help a lot if Nene and Okafor stay healthy, and if Ariza facilitates and plays efficiently. It really can happen. It really IS possible this team can be a surprise and win 40 games.

But if I were and oddsmaker, I would say what Vegas said. Look at the past performances of Nene (Denver traded him for a reason), Okafor, Ariza, and Webster. Note that Wall is out at least the first month of games. Look at the dearth of scorers on this team. Wittman is a coach I like and approve of, however, how has he handled adversity and not enough talent in the past. FINALLY, how much better will Beal make this team as a 19-year old?

I respect their prediction. I think Washington would have a better win projection had they brought back James Singleton, and signed a couple different FAs after buying out Lewis. I think some moves actually drove the prediction down.

[hands11]

CCJ

Why do you seem to marginalize when evaluating the Wizard. You seem to round down for the Wiz and round up for other teams.

I guess some fans would rather plan for the worst emotionally. That way it doesn't sting if things don't work out.

[nate33]

I totally get it. Varejao is healthy. He is as good or better than Nene IMO.

Age:
Varejao: 30
Nene: 30

Games played in the last 3 seasons:
Varejao: 132
Nene: 196

Minutes played in the last 3 seasons:
Varejao: 3945
Nene: 6156

Average PER over the last 3 seasons:
Varejao: 16.3
Nene: 19.4

Total win shares over the past 3 seasons:
Varejao: 12.4
Nene: 23.4

I'm struggling to see how you can consider Varejao to be either better or more durable than Nene.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Nate, WS/48 adjusts for actual playing time.

For his career, Varejao's WS/48 is 0.149. http://www.basketball-reference.com/pla ... jan01.html
For his career, Nene's WS/48 is 0.150. http://www.basketball-reference.com/pla ... rne01.html

Per-36, Varejao averages 10.2 rebounds for his career.
Per-36, Nene averages 8.5 rebounds for his career.

nate, I apologize and I recant what I typed above. Nene is a better player and I was wrong. Period.

When I typed what I said above, I thought about Varejao's on/off differential from when Lebron was with the Cavs. http://www.82games.com/0910/09CLE16.HTM Varejao killed the Wizards in spot appearances in the playoffs. I think he's a very effective player when healthy.

That said, Nene is a better offensive player by far and he's a much better passer than Varejao. He impacts a defense as well as Varejao, but I think Anderson is a very disruptive defender and a much better rebounder. I was wrong to say Varejao's better. I can make a case to say Varejao can really help the Cavs this season.

[DCZards]

The Cavs have an all star-talent PG, who is clearly a much better player than John Wall.

CCJ, I know you're not a John Wall fan. But Irving is a "much better player?" Really. I'd be the first to admit that Irving is a better shooter and all-around offensive player (although that could change). But John is a better passer, rebounder, shotblocker and defender. And, while I love Irving's polished floor game, I love John's superior size, speed and athleticism just as much, if not more.

[doclinkin]

I just think it's hilarious to see in the Vegas line the team abbreviation 'BRO", bro.

[nate33]

The Cavs have an all star-talent PG, who is clearly a much better player than John Wall.

CCJ, I know you're not a John Wall fan. But Irving is a "much better player?" Really. I'd be the first to admit that Irving is a better shooter and all-around offensive player (although that could change). But John is a better passer, rebounder, shotblocker and defender. And, while I love Irving's polished floor game, I love John's superior size, speed and athleticism just as much, if not more.

Nah. CCJ is right on that account. Irving is definitely better than Wall... at least he was last year. Your remarks about John's superior size, speed and athleticism are true and they give wall a higher "ceiling", but it's far from certain whether Wall will ever achieve that ceiling.

[DCZards]

The Cavs have an all star-talent PG, who is clearly a much better player than John Wall.

CCJ, I know you're not a John Wall fan. But Irving is a "much better player?" Really. I'd be the first to admit that Irving is a better shooter and all-around offensive player (although that could change). But John is a better passer, rebounder, shotblocker and defender. And, while I love Irving's polished floor game, I love John's superior size, speed and athleticism just as much, if not more.

Nah. CCJ is right on that account. Irving is definitely better than Wall... at least he was last year. Your remarks about John's superior size, speed and athleticism are true and they give wall a higher "ceiling", but it's far from certain whether Wall will ever achieve that ceiling.

I don't take issue with the "better" at least based on last season. It's the "much better" I totally disagree with.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

CCJ, I know you're not a John Wall fan. But Irving is a "much better player?" Really. I'd be the first to admit that Irving is a better shooter and all-around offensive player (although that could change). But John is a better passer, rebounder, shotblocker and defender. And, while I love Irving's polished floor game, I love John's superior size, speed and athleticism just as much, if not more.

Nah. CCJ is right on that account. Irving is definitely better than Wall... at least he was last year. Your remarks about John's superior size, speed and athleticism are true and they give wall a higher "ceiling", but it's far from certain whether Wall will ever achieve that ceiling.

I don't take issue with the "better" at least based on last season. It's the "much better" I totally disagree with.

Much better is a matter of opinion that we will disagree on, DCZ.

WS/48 for Irving was .125, three times Wall's rookie WS/48 rate, and better than Wall's 0.71 as a second year player. Irving's rookie PER of 21.6 is higher than either year for Wall, 15.6 and 17.7. Wall does have far better physical tools. His assists, steals, blocks are all better thasn Irving's.

[The Consiglieri]

I dont think anyone could deny that Irving was better last year than Wall has been either year, my area of disagreement would be that I think Wall IS right now, a better point guard for what Washington needs than Irving. We didn't want a scorer at the point, we wanted a pass first leader at the position who had a skill set that made him a potentially elite, and dynamic player that had to be accounted for. Irving does what he is best at now better than Wall, which is why his metrics are better than Wall's, but if, and that's a huge IF, Wall reaches his potential, he will definitively be a better, and more valuable player than Irving ever will be. If, in the end, he only lives up to 85-90% of expectations, he will at least be equal to Irving in terms of what he can offer us.

I've seen Irving's in the NBA, they come and go, they are dynamic, special players, but they are not difference makers in a game changing sense. instead they help a team that is bad, become subpar, or a team that is solid become good, but they only ever help a team become great, if they have loads of other great players around them to make it so.

Maybe Im generalizing a bi too much, but looking at Irving and at Wall this is what I see, in Irving a player who ive seen many many times, and who rarely wins it all, and in Wall a player ive rarely if ever seen, who could potentially be a game changer. But the game changer aspect depends on better personel that isnt composed entirely of knuckleheaded bricklayers, and a jump shot, and a 3 game that has to be honored. He's still missing a lot of this, and may never have it. As is, I'd still take him over Irving (pre-injury anyway).

As for the win total, i think i was arguing 32-37 pre injury, and generally projecting a 35+ win season). With Wall out for a month, and what looks like 14 games, I looked at the schedule, i think there are 4-5 possible wins.

I figure they go 3-11 or 4-10 without Wall. That leaves 68 games left to work with. If the squad is healthy by then, i suspect they'll 29-39 the rest of the way. Giving us a season that reads: 33-49. Generally speaking, 33 wins are if memory serves, a reliable projection for a draft pick around the 5-9 slot, pre-lottery. Likely our last high slot.

[closg00]

Since there has been discussion about the Cavs of-late, they are building their team the way we started to initially, but have not abandoned their build and blown their cap for short-term gains.

[barelyawake]

With a healthy Wall, I had little doubt we would be sixth in the East (as a floor). We were seeing the perfect storm of our players being underrated (as happened in 2004). But, Wall was the cornerstone of that prediction.

Now? I HOPE we miss the playoffs (because we need a high draft pick to develop into a championship team), but I believe we still sneak into the playoffs (if Wall comes back). I believe we will see a quicker development of Ves, Seraphin and Beal because of Wall's absence. And I believe most people's estimation that we were an eighth seed pre-injury was a drastic underrating of our depth, defense, talent and potential. I expect an eighth seed now, but hope to tank (and hope management sees this injury as an excuse to tank, where previously we HAD to win to boost morale). Keep Nene and Wall out, and allow Seraphin, Booker and Beal to develop. Then, we are primed for trades with a deep talent pool.

If we play it straight, and Wall comes back on time, we are an eighth seed.