The Consiglieri wrote:]
by The Consiglieri on Sat Jul 28, 2012 12:03 am
........... Tier 4: 10. Toronto 11. Washington 12. Cleveland 3 teams that have been struggling to rebuild for several years with middling success, all have squandered key high draft picks with suspect selections and/or trades, but all three teams are ahead of the game compared to Dumars' Pistons, and Jordan's Bobcats. I am wishy washy about where we slot in amongst the 3, I think we could finish anywhere between 9 and 12 next april, i definitely do not think we're playoff bound, i think our ceiling next year is 36-37 wins. Toronto could be a good site better, and I think Cleveland is one more year away from being a playoff contender. Tier 5: 13. Detroit 14. Orlando 15. Charlotte Orlando screwed the pooch last summer/winter when they didn't get rid of Howard at the first scent of trouble. They never should have kept him, should have moved him while he was worth something, now he has all the power, and they have none other than to make him miserable for 1 more year. They aren't going to get squat in a trade and will be worse than Charlotte in '13-'14. Detroits basically a bug slamming into a window, but were unbelievably lucky to land Drummond at their slot. That was the steal of the draft in terms of value versus slot. Charlotte is screwed till '14-'15 but they made the right pick......
I'm very comfortable with what I said back in July, and now having been dealt injuries to Wall that cost him at least 20 games, I downgraded my expectation to my original floor (32 wins at best) in an October post in this thread. I've missed many projections over the years, but like a lot of cynical fans here, I've consistently won big betting the low end of win totals with the Wizards/Boulez. Knights Honor, a few of the fans here are just wild optimists, and some of us probably appear geniuses now in our low expectations though admittedly there will be a year someday when we are surprised and totally off in our expectations, even a broken clock is right twice a day afterall, I just don't expect that to happen soon. Also like that I nailed Drummond
. Loved him and I was incensed that the Pistons got that freaking lucky. Got a guy with a 50/50 shot at being the 2nd best player out of this draft, maybe the best, and a legit franchise player in Drummond at that freaking slot? So insane. Why don't we ever get that lucky?
Never ceases to amaze me how all fan bases have that same dynamic, at the redskins forum we are all celebrating RG3, but while I and some others never got too low during the October slump, or too high with the wins, other sets either always stayed hypercynical, or compmletely ride the roller coaster of ups and downs that come with wins and losses and as a result, now have playoff stars in their eyes (pure fantasy, the Colts schedule was so friendly in the second half, that in an article i wrote for the sports jam three weeks ago, i argued the Colts would shock the world and finish with the 6 seed by seasons end, the redskins schedule was and is just too difficult, and the defense simply sucks far too much to allow it). I tend to be a realist who can run a little too cynical, but when we landed RG3, I became essentially a positivist. I don't care what the record is in '12, with RG3, the future is assured, so long as the offseason player hauls aren't complete disasters the next several years. Why? Simple, QB play now dominates and dictates who wins and who doesn't in the league. Rules changes the past 15 years or so have gifted teams with franchise QB's playoff runs like clockwork, and franchise QB's have owned the final four and the super bowl participants year in and year out (it's darn near impossible to think of any NFL team w/o a franchise QB that didn't immediately start making the playoffs consistently within 2 years of drafting him). So now, one of the most cynical redskin fans on the planet is one of the rare positivists.
Why not with the Boulez? Well, like the rest of the Chicken Little Cynical Contingent, when I see a team consistently unlucky with the lottery, dumber than hell with draft day decisions, and absolutely moronic with trades, I tend to have exceptionally low expectations until I consistently see proof that that view is logically unreasonable.
A franchise that dumped a first rounder for 4 games from Mark Price, that went old and small for young and big twice, in franchise busting, all world dumb arse trades (Webber for Richmond, Wallace for Strick), that even ditched a future elite big man for an AARP big man ready to pack it in (Wallace for Austin), that traded Rubio/Curry for Minnesota's trash, and traded a massive pile of cap room for two of the worst ten contracts in the NBA?!?!?! Why on earth would anyone be won over to pollyana-ish expectations with a team this moronic, and hopeless, where from the HC, to management, to possibly scouts, and definitely ownership is hapless and hopeless, and possibly even worse than the Pollin regime (at least the Pollin regime wasn't even really trying, the idiots running this titanic into an iceberg every offseason appear to actually be trying).
Nah, at the end of the day to have any decent expectations for this disaster, i need a second offseason where good decisions are made during the rebuild (so far we are 1 for 4 in rebuild offseasons, with '09 being camouflaged by a halfwitted idiot trade which sabotaged year 1, '11 botched by the Vesely pick, and '12 at least half-botched by an equally idiotic trade as '09), and the idiots who are sinking the good ship lollipop every year heaved overboard so we can build anew with a YOUNG, HUNGRY, INTELLIGENT, HIGHLY MOTIVATED front office. Until then I have no faith in this disaster period.
Yup. That's what I said. Great.