Predict the Wizards record in 2012-2013

[willbcocks]

Based on how they've been playing since Wall returned, they project to 33 wins. Dangit -- if only Wall had come back a couple weeks earlier, they'd be right on target for the 37 I predicted.

And, had they been healthy, they'd be right on target for the 44 I predicted.

I'd like it noted that I (moi) am the one who predicted the level they are playing at right now as the level their healthy team would be at.

And that I still didn't -- and don't -- like the Okariza trade or most of Ernie Ugfield's off-season moves.

(Edit: also worth noting that some of the biggest "homers" and EG supporters predicted way below what the team is capable of -- recognize yourself in that observation, Hands ?? )

Considering we knew Wall was hurt and Nene had planar fasciatis when we made the predictions, why would you make your prediction a full health prediction? This year we haven't been unexpectedly decimated by injuries like, say, the timberwolves.

[Shorty]

Based on how they've been playing since Wall returned, they project to 33 wins. Dangit -- if only Wall had come back a couple weeks earlier, they'd be right on target for the 37 I predicted.

And, had they been healthy, they'd be right on target for the 44 I predicted.

I'd like it noted that I (moi) am the one who predicted the level they are playing at right now as the level their healthy team would be at.

And that I still didn't -- and don't -- like the Okariza trade or most of Ernie Ugfield's off-season moves.

(Edit: also worth noting that some of the biggest "homers" and EG supporters predicted way below what the team is capable of -- recognize yourself in that observation, Hands ?? )

Considering we knew Wall was hurt and Nene had planar fasciatis when we made the predictions, why would you make your prediction a full health prediction? This year we haven't been unexpectedly decimated by injuries like, say, the timberwolves.

That statement caught my eye too, but I reread two of his posts at the time, and it's clear that he did not ignore Wall's injury, but rather underestimated the length of his absence in the WS48 numbers he ran. He explicitly assumed that Nene would be healthy enough for 1750+ minutes, but didn't account for the team playing him at significantly reduced effectiveness compared to last year. He also explicitly assumed that the team would be wise enough to limit Crawford's minutes.

That said, if anyone predicted 44 wins for this team before the season, there's a 50-50 chance that he wasn’t an informed analyst but rather an ignorant clown who just likes to see his pseudo-name at the top of the list.

FWIW, I'd say Dat2U was the most prescient about the story of the season, in predicting an epically bad beginning followed by enough wins to save the GM's job.

[tontoz]

No team has full health for a whole season. When you consider that (at the time this thread was made) both Wall and Nene were expected to miss a month, and also the teams lack of depth, a prediction of 44 was pretty far out there.

I am feeling a bit foolish for predicting 35 wins. Granted Wall was out far longer than was expected. At the time i thought he would miss a month and he missed over 2. Oh well.

Now i just want to keep the tank rolling.

[payitforward]

(pif) ...did not ignore Wall's injury, but rather underestimated the length of his absence in the WS48 numbers he ran. He explicitly assumed that Nene would be healthy enough for 1750+ minutes, but didn't account for the team playing him at significantly reduced effectiveness compared to last year. He also explicitly assumed that the team would be wise enough to limit Crawford's minutes.

That said, if anyone predicted 44 wins for this team before the season, there's a 50-50 chance that he wasn’t an informed analyst but rather an ignorant clown who just likes to see his pseudo-name at the top of the list....

There's some overlap between "informed analyst"s and "ignorant clown"s -- the dictionary has my picture next to that overlap.

[montestewart]

Injured Wizards out longer than expected. Boy, that sure came out of left field.

[hands11]

Yep -- you and I were in agreement on the Okariza trade. Didn't like it then, still don't like it now. Didn't like it when my preseason analysis projected 37 wins. Didn't like it when my "full health" projection would have had them at 44 wins.

It is interesting to see how many homers predicted fewer wins than some who didn't like the trade.

My prediction was based on injuries and a rookie Beal.

At full health, I clearly posted where I thought they would finish. 6th-8th seed. Maybe even as high as 5th if things all well perfect.

I knew they would start bad. They had no PG. Then get healthy eventually and start winning. Even started a thread about when I thought it would happen.

Sashae is cut from the list now with a prediction of 24

[hands11]

44 – Shorty, payitforward
43 – doclinkin
42
41 – nuposse04
40 – CaPtaiN eYeSaNo, Rafael122, Pancakes3
39 – dobrojim, Illuminaire
38 – Free Balling
37 – BarnabyJones, Nate33, Nivek
36 – fugop, JAR69
35 – Higga, Tontoz, AnotherFinn, LyricalRico, Severn Hoos
34 – DaRealHibachi, DCZards
33 – FAH1223, truwizfan4evr, Fishercob, dandridge 10, closg00
32 – MJG, Gesa2, Dangermouse, GhostsOfGil, The Consiglieri, hands11, miller31time
31 – Zonkerbl, willbcocks, bulletproof_32
30 – TheBigThree, montestewart, floydfan29
29 – CCJ, Benjamin, Dat2u, verbal8, benjamin
28 – hermitkid, Earth2Ted
27 – Halcyon
26
25 – Jay81
24 – sashae
23
22 – Upper Decker

Pulling for 38 – Free Balling to be right.

[doclinkin]

(pif) ...did not ignore Wall's injury, but rather underestimated the length of his absence in the WS48 numbers he ran. He explicitly assumed that Nene would be healthy enough for 1750+ minutes, but didn't account for the team playing him at significantly reduced effectiveness compared to last year. He also explicitly assumed that the team would be wise enough to limit Crawford's minutes.

That said, if anyone predicted 44 wins for this team before the season, there's a 50-50 chance that he wasn’t an informed analyst but rather an ignorant clown who just likes to see his pseudo-name at the top of the list....

There's some overlap between "informed analyst"s and "ignorant clown"s -- the dictionary has my picture next to that overlap.

At 43 wins I'm going with "informed clown".



I knew they'd play well when injuries healed, knew the fans would come around and support them despite the jibberjabber and hairshirt-wearing over Okariza. Liked that JWall was sent to expert advice on his rehab instead of keeping it in-house. But realistically I knew Ted would take the opportunity for a first half tank by promoting a take-it-slow approach on healing. The rest was allowing a scab knuckled optimism to muscle to the front of the pack and take the lead. I knew our defense would be good, liked our chances at adding an outside shooter or two.

[doclinkin]

I thought we'd get more production out of Seraphin, CSing, Ves and Booker though, despite the logjam in the front court. Figured at least one or two would make a strong case for themselves even given competition.

[dobrojim]

KSera is starting to play better basketball

less unforced mistakes, (seat of pants) better rebounding

more appropriate responses to how he's being defended...

I forget now what I predicted...34-36? [edit, actually 39 wins] But I was hopeful that
the initial timeframe that was given for John's return would be reasonably
close. That would have had him playing in early December. If
that had happened, we'd be a playoff team and I would have
underestimated the win total.

[Higga]

I predicted 35. We'd have to finish 9-3 to reach that #. That's definitely doable. I'd be very happy to finish with 35 wins considering how bad we started the year. We're definitely a playoff team with a healthy Wall.

[willbcocks]

With Wall's injury and Nene missing training camp, I was thinking probably just short of 30 wins. They'll be yet another miserable start to the season (8-32, around .250 winning percentage) and an extended yet utterly meaningless feel good late season run (around .500) that has a strong possibility of taking us out of the running for a high lottery pick this time around. And once again, that run will have the front office thinking, they're just a bit of good health & one player away from competing for the playoffs. And the reign of Ernie Grunfeld continues.

Of course I need to see some preseason games to get a real feel for things but I'm not overly optimistic about the season or long term.

I just wonder when the novelty of having older, professional players with marginal talent will wear off and the board begins to yearn for guys with "upside" on the roster once again.

Yeah, Dat absolutely nailed the prediction. I predicted a similar trajectory to the season, but I didn't predict our start would be as miserable or our finish as strong.

I thought we'd get more production out of Seraphin, CSing, Ves and Booker though, despite the logjam in the front court. Figured at least one or two would make a strong case for themselves even given competition.

Vesely's complete bust-out this year was my worst prediction. I thought he would continue his play from the end of last year and become a decent role-player. What a disaster that prediction was.

[hands11]

With the injuries they have late in the year to Beal, Webster, Nene and Price; them probably looking for a few more loses down the stretch; and a relatively tough schedule, its looking like 29-30 is going to be the number.

Looking at the schedule, hard to see more then 3-4 more wins.

I think I'm out of the running. I just don't see 6 wins left on the schedule.

[payitforward]

Yep -- you and I were in agreement on the Okariza trade. Didn't like it then, still don't like it now. Didn't like it when my preseason analysis projected 37 wins. Didn't like it when my "full health" projection would have had them at 44 wins.

It is interesting to see how many homers predicted fewer wins than some who didn't like the trade.

Equally interesting is that each person can now offer a set of reasons that explain the difference between what actually happened and his prediction. In other words, as always happens in hindsight, everyone is sure he was right.

This is also how we get people looking back at players and saying to themselves (and sometimes, astonishingly, to the rest of us): "Boy, I sure can pick 'em! I really should be a GM."

And this includes many who don't have any basis in data for their ability to "pick 'em" -- they can just tell who's going to be good because they are so very gifted. They don't need to look at numbers, and they're not trying to up their percentage above some base level. No they have the gift. They look at the guy, and they know.

Btw, that's also how Ernie Grunfield can "pick 'em" -- it's the old-time basketball guy's way of doing it. And, if you look back over large numbers to see how the curves turn out, why -- you'd be just as good using "pin the tail on the donkey."

[payitforward]

And, had they been healthy, they'd be right on target for the 44 I predicted.

I'd like it noted that I (moi) am the one who predicted the level they are playing at right now as the level their healthy team would be at.

And that I still didn't -- and don't -- like the Okariza trade or most of Ernie Ugfield's off-season moves.

(Edit: also worth noting that some of the biggest "homers" and EG supporters predicted way below what the team is capable of -- recognize yourself in that observation, Hands ?? )

Considering we knew Wall was hurt and Nene had planar fasciatis when we made the predictions, why would you make your prediction a full health prediction?...

I don't think we knew Nene would miss games when we made the predictions, and we certainly didn't think Wall would be out all that long.

More important, however -- I don't make prediction based on being "prescient." I make them based on the historical productivity levels of players (as much as I'm able -- e.g. I put Beal at "average" for a SG).

In other words, I predicted more or less accurately what this team could do. As did Nivek. We used analysis based on productivity numbers. Translated our numbers into the number of wins those kind of player numbers on a team usually lead to.

You want to have a chance to get it right? For a little chance, use pin the tail on the donkey. For a better chance figure out how productive the team's players are, quantitatively, and translate that into # of wins.

[tontoz]

I don't think we knew Nene would miss games when we made the predictions, and we certainly didn't think Wall would be out all that long.

More important, however -- I don't make prediction based on being "prescient." I make them based on the historical productivity levels of players (as much as I'm able -- e.g. I put Beal at "average" for a SG).

In other words, I predicted more or less accurately what this team could do.

Could do if what? If Wall/Nene came back quickly and they suffered no more injuries during the season? That was about as likely as EG winning executive of the year.

[Joe_Wiz]

My prediction of 37-45, posted back on page 2, is still barely alive. Next time someone updates the list, will you please add me at 37-45 where I should have been all along? Even if the first time I show up on the list my name and prediction are in red, I'd like them recorded along with the rest.

[Joe_Wiz]

I noticed after my post above that the list was slightly out of date (38 is now toast), so I'm updating it myself -- and finally getting myself on the list (in black, for at least a few hours).

44 – Shorty, payitforward
43 – doclinkin
42
41 – nuposse04
40 – CaPtaiN eYeSaNo, Rafael122, Pancakes3
39 – dobrojim, Illuminaire
38 – Free Balling
37 – Joe_Wiz, BarnabyJones, Nate33, Nivek
36 – fugop, JAR69
35 – Higga, Tontoz, AnotherFinn, LyricalRico, Severn Hoos
34 – DaRealHibachi, DCZards
33 – FAH1223, truwizfan4evr, Fishercob, dandridge 10, closg00
32 – MJG, Gesa2, Dangermouse, GhostsOfGil, The Consiglieri, hands11, miller31time
31 – Zonkerbl, willbcocks, bulletproof_32
30 – TheBigThree, montestewart, floydfan29
29 – CCJ, Benjamin, Dat2u, verbal8, benjamin
28 – hermitkid, Earth2Ted
27 – Halcyon
26
25 – Jay81
24 – sashae
23
22 – Upper Decker

[hands11]

With the injuries they have late in the year to Beal, Webster, Nene and Price; them probably looking for a few more loses down the stretch; and a relatively tough schedule, its looking like 29-30 is going to be the number.

Looking at the schedule, hard to see more then 3-4 more wins.

I think I'm out of the running. I just don't see 6 wins left on the schedule.

Hold the phone. Not sure its a good thing or not in the big picture, but the low 30s people are back in the race because Beal and Webster returned early. And no word on a return date Price is even back.

Still a really tough schedule ahead but this team with enough core pieces healthy is an unpredictable wild card.

Should be interesting to see what they can do against better teams with everyone but Nene. Should be a good test for the reserve bigs.

[hands11]

44 – Shorty, payitforward
43 – doclinkin
42
41 – nuposse04
40 – CaPtaiN eYeSaNo, Rafael122, Pancakes3
39 – dobrojim, Illuminaire
38 – Free Balling
37 – Joe_Wiz, BarnabyJones, Nate33, Nivek
36 – fugop, JAR69
35 – Higga, Tontoz, AnotherFinn, LyricalRico, Severn Hoos
34 – DaRealHibachi, DCZards
33 – FAH1223, truwizfan4evr, Fishercob, dandridge 10, closg00
32 – MJG, Gesa2, Dangermouse, GhostsOfGil, The Consiglieri, hands11, miller31time
31 – Zonkerbl, willbcocks, bulletproof_32
30 – TheBigThree, montestewart, floydfan29
29 – CCJ, Benjamin, Dat2u, verbal8, benjamin
28 – hermitkid, Earth2Ted
27 – Halcyon
26
25 – Jay81
24 – sashae
23
22 – Upper Decker[/quote]

Next up.... Hermitkid and Earth