Predict the Wizards record in 2012-2013

[pancakes3]

It's freaky how accurate the bell curve is.

[Zonkerbl]

It's freaky how accurate the bell curve is.

Right?

[Benjammin]

I need the tank to get rumbling again so we are in the 8th draft lottery spot, so 1-6 should take care of that and have me hit their win total on the nose.

[hands11]

44 – Shorty, payitforward
43 – doclinkin
42
41 – nuposse04
40 – CaPtaiN eYeSaNo, Rafael122, Pancakes3
39 – dobrojim, Illuminaire
38 – Free Balling
37 – Joe_Wiz, BarnabyJones, Nate33, Nivek
36 – fugop, JAR69
35 – Higga, Tontoz, AnotherFinn, LyricalRico, Severn Hoos
34 – DaRealHibachi, DCZards
33 – FAH1223, truwizfan4evr, Fishercob, dandridge 10, closg00
32 – MJG, Gesa2, Dangermouse, GhostsOfGil, The Consiglieri, hands11, miller31time
31 – Zonkerbl, willbcocks, bulletproof_32
30 – TheBigThree, montestewart, floydfan29
29 – CCJ, Benjamin, Dat2u, verbal8
28 – hermitkid, Earth2Ted
27 – Halcyon
26
25 – Jay81
24 – sashae
23
22 – Upper Decker[/quote]

[Benjammin]

I don't know why I'm listed twice at 29, but it's all good. I can still hope for a mini-tank to end the season, but that's hard to do with the way J. Wall is playing.

[montestewart]

I don't know why I'm listed twice at 29, but it's all good. I can still hope for a mini-tank to end the season, but that's hard to do with the way J. Wall is playing.

It's all about the Benjammins

[nate33]

Apparently, the second benjammin isn't worthy of capitalization.

[hands11]

I don't know why I'm listed twice at 29, but it's all good. I can still hope for a mini-tank to end the season, but that's hard to do with the way J. Wall is playing.

Not sure. I was just doing a cut and paste but I cleaned it up. Maybe you posted your numbers more then once.

[closg00]

This is the time of year where some teams may be mailing it in while waiting for the playoffs to start. I fully expect Miami to rest their trio when we play them. Therefore, it's hard to predict what our record will be over our last few games.

[GhostsOfGil]

Just had to repost this from the HOF thread:

This season could go down in history as the worst season ever. The team starts 4-28 to virtually eliminate any chance of the playoffs, then goes 37-13 to finish the season at 41-41, and then misses the playoffs because there are 8 teams in the east with better records, meaning the Wizards end up getting the worst player in the lottery.

[closg00]

Looks like the 29 wins group has the inside-track for winning the pool unless Brooklyn and Chicago have nothing to play-for and they rest their starters, but that doesn't guarantee a win for us either.

31 – Zonkerbl, willbcocks, bulletproof_32
30 – TheBigThree, montestewart, floydfan29
29 – CCJ, Benjamin, Dat2u, verbal8, benjamin

[hands11]

44 – Shorty, payitforward
43 – doclinkin
42
41 – nuposse04
40 – CaPtaiN eYeSaNo, Rafael122, Pancakes3
39 – dobrojim, Illuminaire
38 – Free Balling
37 – Joe_Wiz, BarnabyJones, Nate33, Nivek
36 – fugop, JAR69
35 – Higga, Tontoz, AnotherFinn, LyricalRico, Severn Hoos
34 – DaRealHibachi, DCZards
33 – FAH1223, truwizfan4evr, Fishercob, dandridge 10, closg00
32 – MJG, Gesa2, Dangermouse, GhostsOfGil, The Consiglieri, hands11, miller31time
31 – Zonkerbl, willbcocks, bulletproof_32
30 – TheBigThree, montestewart, floydfan29
29 – CCJ, Benjamin, Dat2u, verbal8
28 – hermitkid, Earth2Ted
27 – Halcyon
26
25 – Jay81
24 – sashae
23
22 – Upper Decker

hands11 on Fri Mar 29, 2013 9:50 am
With the injuries they have late in the year to Beal, Webster, Nene and Price; them probably looking for a few more loses down the stretch; and a relatively tough schedule, its looking like 29-30 is going to be the number.

Looking at the schedule, hard to see more then 3-4 more wins.

I think I'm out of the running. I just don't see 6 wins left on the schedule.

----

They have gone 3-6 since then and its looking like 3-8 is how the season will end. Hey, starting 4-26 was a huge hole. No sense and messing up lottery slotting on beating Philly last night. Its a tight race down the stretch.

[willbcocks]

And, had they been healthy, they'd be right on target for the 44 I predicted.

I'd like it noted that I (moi) am the one who predicted the level they are playing at right now as the level their healthy team would be at.

And that I still didn't -- and don't -- like the Okariza trade or most of Ernie Ugfield's off-season moves.

(Edit: also worth noting that some of the biggest "homers" and EG supporters predicted way below what the team is capable of -- recognize yourself in that observation, Hands ?? )

Considering we knew Wall was hurt and Nene had planar fasciatis when we made the predictions, why would you make your prediction a full health prediction?...

I don't think we knew Nene would miss games when we made the predictions, and we certainly didn't think Wall would be out all that long.

More important, however -- I don't make prediction based on being "prescient." I make them based on the historical productivity levels of players (as much as I'm able -- e.g. I put Beal at "average" for a SG).

In other words, I predicted more or less accurately what this team could do. As did Nivek. We used analysis based on productivity numbers. Translated our numbers into the number of wins those kind of player numbers on a team usually lead to.

You want to have a chance to get it right? For a little chance, use pin the tail on the donkey. For a better chance figure out how productive the team's players are, quantitatively, and translate that into # of wins.

It's clear you don't make your predictions based on being prescient--if you did you wouldn't have missed by 15 wins.

I love this post, though. You had a chance for humility and to examine the poor assumptions you made that led to your terrible estimate. Instead you said that you "more or less accurately predicted what this team could do" and then belittled those of us with better estimates by saying we were just lucky and made up our guesses without any evidence (not sure what your evidence for that conclusion was...)

Good on you for coming up with your own system, though--that tends to make the board more interesting.

[Nivek]

In my prediction, I anticipated Nene and Wall missing games. I misunderestimated how many games Wall would miss. And I misoverestimated how well Nene would play. Whether it was age-related decline or injuries (or nagging injuries due to aging), I don't know. But, I thought he'd play better.

I also expected better play from Seraphin and Vesely.

On the flip side, Webster was much better than I'd anticipated. Okafor was significantly better than I predicted; Price was a little better than I thought he'd be. Beal, Ariza and Booker were about what I'd expected.

Wall played better than I'd projected, but less so his overall production sorta netted out to about what I'd figured it would be when I prognosticated 37 wins.

[nate33]

Geez, is Dat2U ALWAYS right?

[Illuminaire]

Geez, is Dat2U ALWAYS right?

He missed on Leonard two years back, but that's all I can think of.

[tontoz]

Geez, is Dat2U ALWAYS right?

I hope he is right this time.

[gesa2]

Not that it matters, but my guess was 30 no 32. It wasn't even based on a system, though )-:

[Zonkerbl]

Oh, I predicted 31, not 30?

I'm crushed.

[dobrojim]

Geez, is Dat2U ALWAYS right?

Dat is a smart guy but he was also one of the ones, like me, who
didn't think Harden would be this good. Towards the end of his NCAA
career, he really didn't show that much.

almost no one is right or wrong all the time and the more you express
yourself, the more likely it is that there will be evidence of that fact.