Predict the Wizards record in 2012-2013

[closg00]

Grantland, just killing the Wizards.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_WYU-rmT ... r_embedded

Hard to argue with anything said here.

Wow, astute observations and an evisceration of Ernie Grunfeld, he got sliced and diced real good.

[closg00]

Grantland, just killing the Wizards.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_WYU-rmT ... r_embedded

Hard to argue with anything said here.

I gotta admit, Joe House had some very troubling comments about the injuries. He's right that it's usually a bad thing when the prescription for an injury is "rest". Inevitably, the injury flares up again until surgery is needed. Wall and Nene are the two best players on the team and there's a good chance that they may have nagging injuries all year long.

Unfortunately, Booker appears to be an injury-prone player, he left the game early due to ????

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

"He should have been fired after the Randy Foye, Mike Miller trade. That was the equivalent of pulling your pants down at work."

Bill Simmons on Ernie Grunfeld

[tontoz]

Unfortunately, Booker appears to an injury-prone player, he left the game early due to ????

I noticed that. When he came off the court he was looking down like something was bothering him.

[Jay81]

this is a 25-57 team. Its going to be a long year. too bad there is not a lockout that can shorten the agony

[Shorty]

Want to get this in before the power goes out:

44 wins, in honor of the Diesel, who would fit right in here, width-wise.

38 not-enough-time-on-the-clock-to wins.

I'll spout some nonsensical rationale for it in the optimism thread, if I get a chance tomorrow.

(Edited to add up to 82 games.)

[fugop]

36 wins.

[hands11]

I gotta admit, Joe House had some very troubling comments about the injuries. He's right that it's usually a bad thing when the prescription for an injury is "rest". Inevitably, the injury flares up again until surgery is needed. Wall and Nene are the two best players on the team and there's a good chance that they may have nagging injuries all year long.

That's one of the things that really resonated with me as well. Part of why I'm so pessimistic about this teams outlook.

I've been laboring with plantar fasciitis for some time now, which was in large part prompted by a stress injury to my achilles tendon that just won't go away.

It's extremely debilitating and while some days are better than others, it's damn near impossible to predict how long it's going to be to get over it according to the doctors. The only remedy is rest and immobilization, and even then you have to consider Nene's build and it's not hard to imagine this being a recurring issue all throughout the season. His participation in the Olympics was extremely irresponsible and I can't believe he did it with the blessing of this organization.

Wall's injury is pretty much in the same vein and was no doubt preceded by playing with patellar tendinitis. It's not quite as painful and an injury that one can play through, but it seems that in Walls case the weakening of the inflamed area finally resulted in a partial tear.

http://www.heel-that-pain.com/plantar_f ... urgery.php

http://www.webmd.com/a-to-z-guides/plan ... is-surgery

Seems rest is the recommended treatment for these injuries. Surgery may be the right solution for some things but not this these.

As for Wall, right now all we have to go on is the information we have which is, they caught it early and they know what it is. There was no reason for surgery. Rest was all that is required. If that is accurate, he should have a full recovery. As Wizard fans, we obviously have Gils injury in the back of our heads, so people are skeptical of knee injuries and projections of a full recovery. That's understandable. But there is nothing that we have learned that makes these two situation the same or similar other then the fact that both Wall and Gil seem to be gym rats. In Gils case, his gym ratness hurt him because he pushed it to hard to early. Wall appears to be smarter and more mature. He is getting the rest Gil should have taken. And Walls condition is no were near as sever as Gils.

[hands11]

Wall - My prediction is that Wall will have a full recovery. The damage to the Wizards record is that he will miss all of Nov which is 14 games. But lets put this in perspective. Its not like Wall wasn't able to play with his condition. He was just having discomfort. He was quick as every before they shut him down. What they are doing is preventative so he doesn't have a big injury down the road. But clearly this sets him back since he will have to get in game shape again and he missed time gelling with his teammates.

For Nene. I'm just pissed that he played in the Olympics given his condition. Sounds like he needed a full 6 months of rest and treatment and he could have gotten that. When a team is paying you 13M a year, you do what is right for that team and forgo other wants. He last played around August 6th so he has had around 3 months rest. Unless he is feeling great, they should sync his return with Walls and give him another full month.

My bigger concerns are Booker and Kevin. If they can get them healthy, they can buy time for Wall and Nene. I have heard no time table on Kevin S which leaves us all guessing and we are talking a calve injury on a big dude. My guess is two more weeks. And Booker is already fighting a hammy. I have no feel for if he is still fighting with that but given his injury history, I will wait till I see him playing consistently before believing his is recovered.

And whats with the sholder injury they said Okafor had ? Was that an excuse to play Barron ? Oak is schedule to play against Cleveland at least. But something to watch. Specially since Singleton missed games with a shoulder already.

Without the injuries, I would have said 39-41 wins and fighting for the playoffs. But they have a lot of injuries they are already dealing with and no clear time tables for their returns.

Nene, Webster, Booker and Okafors history is one thing but now add Wall and Kevin and that's critical mass. At least Webster seems to be recovered and Singleton is back out there after a little shoulder issue and looks like he is ready to take a step up in consistency and offensive productively from his year one numbers.

With the injuries and not being able to count on Booker staying healthy ( that is key for now ), I would guess more like 32-50 given everyone is projected to return eventually.

Anything better then that would mean one of the following. Nene returned before expected and stays healthy. Booker stays healthy and is a beast along with Webster and Singleton stepping it up.

Its just to hard to predict anything better then 32 wins given all the questions regarding injury issues.

We may want to do two predictions this year. One before the season WAG and one after a week into the season ( say a Fri, Nov 9 cut off - only 3 games played) because by them, we may actually have some information on Nene and Kevin. And we will know if Booker is healthy or not. That's important information that we just don't have. Hell, we don't even know what the rotations are either.

[Dat2U]

I'm really down on the team this year. The way the roster was assembled this offseason, you'd swear 30 wins was the goal. The Nene injury news was almost expected. I suspect as long as the Wizards are competitive, Nene will give it the good fight and try to be a team leader. If things get ugly early, Nene's injuries might become even more nagging.

The Wall injury was completely unexpected and that's the real killer, especially since he can't do anything other than throw up shots while resting (so he's not in basketball shape) and injury that has a high probability of needing much more medical attention than rest. Wall may have struggled offensively for the most part his first two seasons but for the Wizards to have any hope, he needed carry the entire load and raise his game significantly at the same time. That task becomes much harder now. And the risk of re-injury is prominent.

So with their two best weapons sidelined with injuries that carry major risk of re-aggravation and these same two players are being asked to lead a suspect supporting cast in a season where major improvement is expected, the potential for disappointment is quite high. The search for a 3rd option or leading option while Nene & Wall are out is on but the candidates are sketchy at best. The ideal situation is that Bradley Beal steps up as a rookie and lives up to his lofty draft status. But passiveness at Florida and in the preseason hints that he might not be ready to be relied upon at the level. Jordan Crawford is the de facto option but that would certainly lead to a great amount of lottery balls with his regrettable shot selection and terrible efficiency.

With Ariza already in "I couldn't care less" mode and needing draft flameout Martell Webster to relive his high school glory, the pickings are slim. One might think this would be an opportunity for Kevin Seraphin to really break out with Nene injured but Seraphin too, has been hurt and still has yet to show to improvement on the boards he'll need to make to truly make an impact.

Coaching wise, the players seem to respect Wittman and genuinely like playing for him. Wittman did a respectable job last season in a no win situation. But he's got a lot to prove and no one would have been really upset or shocked if the Wizards actually hired someone else this off-season. Wittman got the most out of his players last season (which wasn't much) and they played hard and showed some of the intensity that's part of Wittman's personality. Time will tell if that can last a whole season.

Without Nene & Wall to start the season it's going to be ugly. I don't believe Price/Pargo is a passable option at PG, especially considering the lack of offensive options around those two. Shots will be aplenty and Crawford will be sure to oblige but that's not a good thing. Same thing with Ariza. Expecting Webster & Booker to live up to their preseason successes is totally unrealistic. If those are the guys that opposing defenses must shut down to beat the Wizards, then winning will be a rare occurrence.

I see initial optimism over the way the team competes and hustles. We'll be competitive and ugly to watch. But it will be a breath of fresh air at first. Unfortunately, we'll lose a ton of close games because we simply can't score in the end. But that will wear off in time and Wall will struggle mightily when initially when he comes back because of rust and not being in ideal game shape. The losses will mount up and it might get ugly.

I see a desperate GM making some kind of in-season move to save face and Wall making a strong second half showing if not quite breaking out like people hoped (maybe something along the lines of 18 & 9 with an efg in the .520 or .530 range and PER around 19). So once again, we'll finish the season strong (.500 or better for about 30 games or so - maybe enough to save EG's job for one more season) but we won't sniff any race for the 8th seed this year.

29-53 (7th or 8th most lottery balls)

[dandridge 10]

Dat saved me a lot of typing because I have the same concerns as him. While I think this team could get over 40 wins if healthy, I don't see Nene healthy the entire season. I also think it will take Wall longer to come back and even when he does, it will take time to get in game shape. This team is going to have some moxy though and will put in the effort. For this, I'll give them a few more wins than Dat predicts.

33 - 49.

[montestewart]

I'm still working on the league standings prediction, but I've been going progressively lower from a high of possibly over 40 wins. Me and Obama could lose power any moment, so I'll put in 30 wins for now. The current lines helped decide it for me: the average of lines I could find was 29.5. Maybe they lean low on non marquee teams to attract money.

[DCZards]

Good and fair analysis, Dat.

My prediction...34 wins.

Beal will be the real deal by January (once he gets 20-25 games under his belt); the offense will be shaky but the D will tough and physical; M. Webster, if he stays healthy, will be a surprise contributor all season; Wall will struggle at first when he returns but will be making sweet music with Beal by the all-star break; Nene will play 50-55 games, which is not enough; and Seraphin and Booker will continue to improve and prove themselves to be a big part of the Zards future core.

[payitforward]

Good and fair analysis, Dat.

My prediction...34 wins.

Beal will be the real deal by January (once he gets 20-25 games under his belt); the offense will be shaky but the D will tough and physical; Mitch Butler, if he stays healthy, will be a surprise contributor all season; Wall will struggle at first when he returns but will be making sweet music with Beal by the all-star break; Nene will play 50-55 games, which is not enough; and Seraphin and Booker will continue to improve and prove themselves to be a big part of the Zards future core.

Mitch Butler?? You are right -- that would be a surprise!

I presume you mean Martell Webster, only it would no longer be a surprise, though it would still be very nice.

[hands11]

Interesting negative spin I what I wrote that gets you to basically the same win total I predicted.

Here is the difference.

Given the current known injuries and unknown return dates, I don't think exceptions are high so I don't think there will be huge disappointment. That disappoint already came when we learned about Walls injury and then later Kevin S. Oh, and Nene during the summer Olympics. That was the avoidable one that pisses me off. But it's not like Nene couldn't play in the opening game. They are just resting him with a bigger picture in mind.

Wall and Kevin's injuries are not on EG. Nene injury is nagging not disabling. They are resting him in hopes of a more full recovery for the future. If he needed to play Tuesday, he would. The situation is just that we don't know where he is along the lines of that full recovery so we don't know how many games he will miss. It just one of those injuries where continuous rest is better then playing through it. Its not a sprained finger or ankle so they are shooting for continuous rest.

I see in no way Randy's job will be in jeopardy this year. He coached them well last year. He is also a big part of the culture change and getting wins against MIL and Miami, given the players he had, shows what a good coach he is. They even played SA hard for three quarters with Barron starting and no Okafor. They could have easily gone winless this preseason with the injuries they had. Hell, they beat Cleveland playing Barron, Randolf, Cook and Mack 20 minutes each.

As for PG, they should be fine. Price has been getting increasingly better as the preseason went on and should serve as a better back up to Wall then Mack was. Plus, Crawford is going play defacto PG in half court sets when he is out so if he is out there without Price and if Pargo is struggling with turnovers, Crawford will help them get into the offense. Price and Crawford with Pargo sharing some PG duties should be enough to bring the ball up court and set the offense for a team that has decent passing players.

Expecting Booker to be a beast isn't a stretch. Booker has clearly shown he can be a force when healthy. The only question is.. is he healthy enough to stay out there. And Singleton has shown he is going to be more aggressive offensively this year. He is he shooting and making his outside shot with more confidence. And Webster seems to be a real find. Love his range and he is aggressive. I expect at least 15 a game from him.

So while you project Wall and Nene's injuries to be problematic, that is just your projection. From what we know, both are resting for preventative reasons and could go today if they really had to. Kevin S is the only one that pulled up completely lame with a pulled calve muscle and Booker is fighting a pulled hammy. I'm more concerned with those two then Wall and Nene.

None of these guy has blown out an ACL.

I think most of us expect them to struggle early if they have no Wall, Nene or Kevin so expectations are set low. Then we expect them to be a 45 to 50% team when everyone is activated to play. That would be success for Ted/EG and Randy.

I expect Nene to return for the Fri, Nov 9 MIL Game.
Kevin should be back around then or soon after given no set backs.

They should be 1-2 and ready to fight MIL at home to go 2-2
Say they loose at Indy 2-3 then bring back Kevin Tue, Nov 13 at Charlotte. 3-3

Thats what I'm hoping for. Once Kevin is back, they can give Nene more rest when needed and the team can start to gel.

Then they have just have 8 more games till Wall returns. Its a tough 8 game stretch though. How they handle those game will be key in determining if they win around 33 games or if they can get closer to the 37 and up win range.

So the biggest detriment to a 8th place playoff challenge is resting Wall to prevent a serious injury down the road. I hardly see that as a Ted/EG failure.

[AnotherFinn]

35 wins, same as my last 2 year predictions. Why change, maybe I am right this time ...

[LyricalRico]

^ I'm also leaning towards 35, although thinking of going in the 38-40 range. If my power goes out before I can up it, go with 35.

[nate33]

Dat2U makes a compelling argument, and I think the season will indeed progress much like he states. Early on, we won't be very good, and later we will improve when Wall and Nene get back and get healthy.

Where I differ with Dat2U is in my estimation of our performance during these two phases. Dat2U seems to think we will epically bad in the pre-Wall phase, and then not really all that good even when Wall and Nene get back. That's the only we he can get to 29 total wins.

I think that's overly pessimistic. I think we will be not-so-good early on and then play like a rock-solid mid-tier playoff team when Wall and Nene get back. So, assuming we play like a 24-win team for the first third of the season, and then play like a 43-win team for the last two-thirds of the season, that puts us at 37 wins overall.

That's my prediction: 37 wins. If Nene is actually in pretty good shape early on, and is only being held out of preseason as a precaution, then we can do even better. If Wall's injuries nag all the way through January, then we'll do worse.

[Dat2U]

Without Wall & Nene in the lineup, I think we have the worst collection of offensive talent in the league, even worse than Charlotte. We'll fight and claw to stay close in games but hitting 80 pts is going to be a struggle on many nights.

Anyone (yes, you hands11!) that states the backcourt is just fine with A.J. Price & Jannero Pargo is in denial. Pargo isn't even a real PG. He's a poor man's Juan Dixon! A.J. Price wasn't even all that good at UConn. No legit PG, no real offensive weapons, no way we can compete. Wall better get back into shape quickly if 30 wins is going to happen.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

I'm still working on the league standings prediction, but I've been going progressively lower from a high of possibly over 40 wins. Me and Obama could lose power any moment, so I'll put in 30 wins for now. The current lines helped decide it for me: the average of lines I could find was 29.5. Maybe they lean low on non marquee teams to attract money.

Great post, monte.

I still say 29 wins. Since I usually don't predict well, I hope I'm wrong and they sneak in the playoffs with 38 or 39 wins, which is possible.