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Predict the Wizards record in 2012-2013

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Post#121 Re: Predict the Wizards record in 2012-2013
Tue Oct 30, 2012 5:19 pm by Severn Hoos

montestewart wrote:
Severn Hoos wrote:This is such a depressing annual exercise. Kind of like a Bergman film....

EG can't win chess matches with fellow GMs. Can't be any worse with Death, eh?


Dude, I can't believe we just Melvined Death!


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Post#122 Re: Predict the Wizards record in 2012-2013
Tue Oct 30, 2012 6:03 pm by doclinkin

I was looking at 39 but nate snaked that one. Anybody have 40 wins? I guess I'll take that spot. Wait no I'm supposed to be optimistic. I'll give a winning record: 43, sure that's it.
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Post#123 Re: Predict the Wizards record in 2012-2013
Tue Oct 30, 2012 6:32 pm by Spence

I think they're going to suck a lot without Wall and Nene and Seraphin. Gives me no pleasure to write that.
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Post#124 Re: Predict the Wizards record in 2012-2013
Tue Oct 30, 2012 6:59 pm by FreeBalling

I think the future is bright for the Wizards. I see us winning between 15 and 20 more games this year because of the additions in the off season.

Put me down for 38-44

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Post#125 Re: Predict the Wizards record in 2012-2013
Tue Oct 30, 2012 7:04 pm by Nivek

With power out until a few minutes ago, I haven't had a chance to do real analysis.

I'm going to predict 33 wins.
"A lot of what we call talent is the desire to practice."
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Post#126 Re: Predict the Wizards record in 2012-2013
Tue Oct 30, 2012 7:08 pm by Illuminaire

BASKETBALL IS BACK!!!! WOOOOOO!!!!

Time for another painfully optimistic prediction. 39 wins, 7-8th seed.
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Post#127 Re: Predict the Wizards record in 2012-2013
Wed Oct 31, 2012 2:09 pm by tontoz

Illuminaire wrote:BASKETBALL IS BACK!!!! WOOOOOO!!!!

Time for another painfully optimistic prediction. 39 wins, 7-8th seed.



Could have sworn it was you that had the lowest prediction last year.
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Post#128 Re: Predict the Wizards record in 2012-2013
Wed Oct 31, 2012 3:59 pm by Illuminaire

You're right Tontoz, but I was trying to reverse jinx them into a playoff run while consoling my actual expectations with a high lottery pick.

Considering how the season ended, it's like the team knew exactly what I wanted to tried desperately to thwart it.
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Post#129 Re: Predict the Wizards record in 2012-2013
Fri Nov 2, 2012 11:33 am by Nivek

Got around to doing a more in-depth projection and came up with...37 wins. So, that's my official prediction. Details here.

Projected average to above-average performers:

- Nene
- Okafor
- Wall
- Seraphin
- Booker
"A lot of what we call talent is the desire to practice."
-- Malcolm Gladwell

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Post#130 Re: Predict the Wizards record in 2012-2013
Fri Nov 2, 2012 11:50 am by Chocolate City Jordanaire

I would add Webster, Singleton, Beal, and possibly even Ariza to the projected average to above-average.

Nivek, don't tell anyone but I still secretly believe a perfect storm, (is it too early for that reference?), of unlikely events could cause the Wizards to win as much as 45 games.

Webster, Ariza, and Okafor could all have bounce back years while both Nene and Wall defy the odds and heal completely pretty early in the season. Seraphin could continue his ascent and Wall could hit threes with confidence. Before Wall comes back, Pargo and Price can hit from outside and manage the game well enough that Wall's presence won't be terribly missed. Not every PG is as dynamic as Kyrie Irving.

I will stick with my usual doom and gloom, because that is what I think will happen with the Wizards. I said 29, but 39 is possible. Heck, 45 is possible but very unlikely only because of Nene being out. As IIRC, nate pointed out they played like a better-than-.500 team after the trade last season. If not for injuries, they still could.
Will the Wizards' success be sustained or was it fool's gold?
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Post#131 Re: Predict the Wizards record in 2012-2013
Fri Nov 2, 2012 12:10 pm by Upper Decker

I've tabulated everyone's predictions, if I missed one please repost with the edit. There were 51 submissions with a mean win prediction of 33.5, a median of 33, and a mode of 32. Historically the average projection of the board is 8-9 higher than actual. We shall see...

44 – Shorty, payitforward
43 – doclinkin
42
41 – nuposse04
40 – CaPtaiN eYeSaNo, Rafael122, Pancakes3
39 – dobrojim, Illuminaire
38 – DaRealHibachi, Free Balling
37 – BarnabyJones, Nate33, Nivek
36 – fugop, JAR69
35 – Higga, Tontoz, AnotherFinn, LyricalRico, Severn Hoos
34 – DCZards
33 – FAH1223, truwizfan4evr, Fishercob, dandridge 10, closg00
32 – MJG, Gesa2, Dangermouse, GhostsOfGil, The Consiglieri, hands11, miller31time
31 – Zonkerbl, willbcocks, bulletproof_32
30 – TheBigThree, montestewart, floydfan29
29 – CCJ, Benjamin, Dat2u, verbal8, benjamin
28 – hermitkid, Earth2Ted
27 – Halcyon
26
25 – Jay81
24 – sashae
23
22 – Upper Decker
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Post#132 Re: Predict the Wizards record in 2012-2013
Fri Nov 2, 2012 12:18 pm by Nivek

Chocolate City Jordanaire wrote:I would add Webster, Singleton, Beal, and possibly even Ariza to the projected average to above-average.


Beal I could see being average or better. Same with Ariza, who was about average last season, and he's rated average for his career. My projection for him is close to average (94 where average = 100).

Webster -- wonderful preseason, good guy, but he's never sniffed average in an NBA season. Closest he got was back in 2009-10. I just re-ran my win projection calculator using Webster's career average instead of my projection and it added 0.2 wins.

Singleton -- dubious. He was AWFUL as a rookie, but had a solid preseason. His first game was bad, not that I read much into a single game. I've projected him improving to replacement level

Nivek, don't tell anyone but I still secretly believe a perfect storm, (is it too early for that reference?), of unlikely events could cause the Wizards to win as much as 45 games.


Your secret is safe with me. ;)

Webster, Ariza, and Okafor could all have bounce back years while both Nene and Wall defy the odds and heal completely pretty early in the season. Seraphin could continue his ascent and Wall could hit threes with confidence. Before Wall comes back, Pargo and Price can hit from outside and manage the game well enough that Wall's presence won't be terribly missed. Not every PG is as dynamic as Kyrie Irving.

I will stick with my usual doom and gloom, because that is what I think will happen with the Wizards. I said 29, but 39 is possible. Heck, 45 is possible but very unlikely only because of Nene being out. As IIRC, nate pointed out they played like a better-than-.500 team after the trade last season. If not for injuries, they still could.


A perfect storm would be Wall coming back like Rondo, Nene performing at the level he did when he was actually able to play (which was better than he's played at any point in his career), Okafor returning to the level he was at 3-4 years ago, Beal being above average, Singleton improving a bunch, Webster suddenly playing waaaaaay better than he ever has (after 9000+ career minutes), and so on.

Some of that might happen. It's unlikely that all of it will. If it ALL happens, they could get to 42-45 wins.
"A lot of what we call talent is the desire to practice."
-- Malcolm Gladwell

Check out my blog about the Wizards, movies, writing, music, TV, sports, and whatever else comes to mind.
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Post#133 Re: Predict the Wizards record in 2012-2013
Fri Nov 2, 2012 12:24 pm by dandridge 10

I find it ironic that payitforward is one of EG's biggest critics (most of it justified), yet he has the most optimism for this season. I'm not being critical, it just surprised me when I saw his prediction. Was his prediction in jest?
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Post#134 Re: Predict the Wizards record in 2012-2013
Fri Nov 2, 2012 12:28 pm by montestewart

dandridge 10 wrote:I find it ironic that payitforward is one of EG's biggest critics (most of it justified), yet he has the most optimism for this season. I'm not being critical, it just surprised me when I saw his prediction. Was his prediction in jest?

It surprised me too, payitforward, but you're a combination of enthusiastic fan optimism and loyal fan expectation that management could and should do better. Maybe I need to get a little more of the former.
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Post#135 Re: Predict the Wizards record in 2012-2013
Fri Nov 2, 2012 12:38 pm by Nivek

I'm kinda surprised at the overall tabulation. I hate the offseason, but project more wins than the board average.
"A lot of what we call talent is the desire to practice."
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Post#136 Re: Predict the Wizards record in 2012-2013
Fri Nov 2, 2012 1:29 pm by queridiculo

Nivek wrote:I'm kinda surprised at the overall tabulation. I hate the offseason, but project more wins than the board average.


To me it all comes down to health.

With everybody on board I still feel like this could be a 40+ win team, but given the nature of Wall and Nene's injury I simply don't have any faith in them playing in more than 65% of the games this year.
..let's keep in mind that while the Wizards were trading for Okafor and Ariza, giving away a draft pick and cap room, bypassing the free agent market and rejecting a trade for Harden, Leonsis was publicly congratulating himself for being smart. - Nivek
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Post#137 Re: Predict the Wizards record in 2012-2013
Fri Nov 2, 2012 4:30 pm by verbal8

Nivek wrote:I'm kinda surprised at the overall tabulation. I hate the offseason, but project more wins than the board average.


What is really funny to me is Lyrical Rico, has them as being 2 games worse than your prediction.
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Post#138 Re: Predict the Wizards record in 2012-2013
Fri Nov 2, 2012 4:37 pm by Nivek

And here's the thing -- in my projection, I factor in health. Games played. Minutes played. All that. Still came up with 37 wins.
"A lot of what we call talent is the desire to practice."
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Check out my blog about the Wizards, movies, writing, music, TV, sports, and whatever else comes to mind.
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Post#139 Re: Predict the Wizards record in 2012-2013
Fri Nov 2, 2012 5:38 pm by montestewart

Nivek wrote:And here's the thing -- in my projection, I factor in health. Games played. Minutes played. All that. Still came up with 37 wins.

You should factor in the relentless Injurio Telly-O-Tally-O Count machine that keeps ripping and cracking in my head. It could pull a lot of projections down.
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Post#140 Re: Predict the Wizards record in 2012-2013
Fri Nov 2, 2012 8:52 pm by tontoz

Nivek wrote:And here's the thing -- in my projection, I factor in health. Games played. Minutes played. All that. Still came up with 37 wins.



Interesting that Hollinger predicted 38. You two are probably looking at a lot of the same things.
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