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Predict the Wizards record in 2012-2013

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Post#136 Re: Predict the Wizards record in 2012-2013
Fri Nov 2, 2012 1:29 pm by queridiculo

Nivek wrote:I'm kinda surprised at the overall tabulation. I hate the offseason, but project more wins than the board average.


To me it all comes down to health.

With everybody on board I still feel like this could be a 40+ win team, but given the nature of Wall and Nene's injury I simply don't have any faith in them playing in more than 65% of the games this year.
..let's keep in mind that while the Wizards were trading for Okafor and Ariza, giving away a draft pick and cap room, bypassing the free agent market and rejecting a trade for Harden, Leonsis was publicly congratulating himself for being smart. - Nivek
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Post#137 Re: Predict the Wizards record in 2012-2013
Fri Nov 2, 2012 4:30 pm by verbal8

Nivek wrote:I'm kinda surprised at the overall tabulation. I hate the offseason, but project more wins than the board average.


What is really funny to me is Lyrical Rico, has them as being 2 games worse than your prediction.
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Post#138 Re: Predict the Wizards record in 2012-2013
Fri Nov 2, 2012 4:37 pm by Nivek

And here's the thing -- in my projection, I factor in health. Games played. Minutes played. All that. Still came up with 37 wins.
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Post#139 Re: Predict the Wizards record in 2012-2013
Fri Nov 2, 2012 5:38 pm by montestewart

Nivek wrote:And here's the thing -- in my projection, I factor in health. Games played. Minutes played. All that. Still came up with 37 wins.

You should factor in the relentless Injurio Telly-O-Tally-O Count machine that keeps ripping and cracking in my head. It could pull a lot of projections down.
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Post#140 Re: Predict the Wizards record in 2012-2013
Fri Nov 2, 2012 8:52 pm by tontoz

Nivek wrote:And here's the thing -- in my projection, I factor in health. Games played. Minutes played. All that. Still came up with 37 wins.



Interesting that Hollinger predicted 38. You two are probably looking at a lot of the same things.
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Post#141 Re: Predict the Wizards record in 2012-2013
Sat Nov 3, 2012 9:26 am by payitforward

montestewart wrote:
dandridge 10 wrote:I find it ironic that payitforward is one of EG's biggest critics (most of it justified), yet he has the most optimism for this season. I'm not being critical, it just surprised me when I saw his prediction. Was his prediction in jest?

It surprised me too, payitforward, but you're a combination of enthusiastic fan optimism and loyal fan expectation that management could and should do better. Maybe I need to get a little more of the former.

Using last season WP48 numbers for all players on the roster (giving Beal a straw man average score), and projecting at least one possible spread of minutes, then assuming health sufficient to support those minutes, I came up with that shocking estimate.

Webster looked like a much better player than in the past, and had been saying that he was healthy for the first time in years, I thought and still think that his variance was more likely to be up then down. Ditto Singleton off his preseason (and given that last year was a tough one to be a rookie). And I thought we'd be keeping Mack not Pargo but had projected few enough minutes at that spot not to matter a whole bunch.

In retrospect, I underestimated the time it now looks like it'll take for Wall to come back -- meaning more minutes for Price/Pargo and therefore fewer wins for the team. And I fear that Nene too will be out for quite a while. His ability to come back, and to play at or near last year's level, is the single softest spot in the thinking behind my projection.

But from the responses above it seems I may not have communicated quite where I stand in re: the team. Even if we were to win 44 games I really don't care. I have no interest in us going back to the 40+ wins, one playoff series and out team that defines the best Ernie Grunfield can offer. And especially I don't want to do it based on veterans in the last 1/3 of their career -- meaning that this exalted number 44 wouldn't be easy to duplicate, would require us to get even more such veterans.

Screw mediocrity; I want to contend for a title. I'd rather fail at that effort than succeed at the current one. I detest the choices Ernie makes. I feel contempt for him, because he places the bar so low then gloats because he thinks he knows how to reach it.

Hence, I would have drafted Leonard (or maybe Motiejunas or somehow traded up for Valenciunas whom I loved) #6 in 2011. I would have drafted Faried (tho I also found Tobias Harris tempting) at #18. I would have traded McGee for some combo of expiring salary, and/or youth and/or picks. I would have paid off Rashard and signed Brand if possible, I would have landed Landry Fields or Kareem Rush as an FA, if the $$ made it at all possible I would have pursued Ilyasova, I would have used our #32 and 46 picks and signed an undrafted (e.g. Machado).

Perhaps you remember that I proposed (in jest because it would have been impossible to execute) a "radical trade-down strategy" for this year's draft that gave us I think it was 6 or 7 rookies. I was being humorous as I say, but that reflects my actual preference.

Hence, for me, 44 wins is not a happy prediction. It's back to the Ernie Grunfield BS era.
People say I'm mellowing with age. Nah.

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Post#142 Re: Predict the Wizards record in 2012-2013
Sat Nov 3, 2012 10:04 am by montestewart

I assumed you had actual numbers rather than optimism behind your projection, payitforward. For me, your optimism (or my pessimism) relates entirely to which good players will or will not miss games due to injury, and which not-so-good players will take their minutes. And many of us relate to why 44 wins isn't necessarily a good thing long term. (Although I kind of liked the Arenas-led and Webber-led teams at that level.)

Still it's worth noting that three posters who draw much from advanced metrics (you, Nivek, and Nate33), who have to varying degrees offered withering criticisms of many/most of the team's recent moves, also have projections on the upper end of the prediction spectrum. Such harsh critiques are as easily higher (and not unrealistic) fan expectation as they are pessimism. Seemingly a contradiction on its face, but really not so much that the greater critiques/critics can offer higher win projections.
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Post#143 Re: Predict the Wizards record in 2012-2013
Sat Nov 3, 2012 2:04 pm by Nivek

montestewart wrote:Still it's worth noting that three posters who draw much from advanced metrics (you, Nivek, and Nate33), who have to varying degrees offered withering criticisms of many/most of the team's recent moves, also have projections on the upper end of the prediction spectrum. Such harsh critiques are as easily higher (and not unrealistic) fan expectation as they are pessimism. Seemingly a contradiction on its face, but really not so much that the greater critiques/critics can offer higher win projections.


This is interesting. For me, it was easy to recognize that the team would likely have a better record this year than in previous years based on the moves they'd made. But, like payitforward posted, that's a low bar. Tripping over it with 30+ year olds playing key roles and then proclaiming it a step forward in the rebuild -- I find that disingenuous.

Like payitforward, I wanted to see the team build toward being a contender. They could likely have gotten to the same place (33-38 wins) while bringing in younger players who could be part of something. But, we've been through all this before.

So, I'll be rooting for the team to win. I'm hoping it'll be fun for them to be at least in contention for that 8th playoff spot. But, I'd really hoped after last season that it would actually mean something -- that they'd be building toward something. They'll pretend it means something, but the way the roster is constructed, it's going to need significant retooling in a couple years. So, maybe squeaking into the playoffs the next couple years will be kinda like eating cotton candy.
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Post#144 Re: Predict the Wizards record in 2012-2013
Sat Nov 3, 2012 3:38 pm by montestewart

I'm pretty sure I posted a few times a preliminary projection in that range (33-38 wins) based only on the last year's season ending roster, plus draft picks and reasonable short term additions, without discounting the value of adding Ilyasova, Danny Green, or some others longer term, if the chance arose. I didn't think Okafor/Ariza was necessarily a step backward as far as wins, and might bump them into the 40 range, but I gradually picked up a nagging fear that injuries would come crashing down, and my projection plummeted. Maybe that's irrational, but I've been a Bullets/Wizards fan for a long time, and I can't swear that all my responses to the team are necessarily rational.

I want the team to do better than my projection, watching a win is much more fun. I share the fear that they will do better yet be stuck outside serious contender status, stuck with too much salary tied to older players who will not help them get beyond that middling status. If the guys in the middle can be semi-healthy and on the court, it will be a nice change to see the Wizards defend the rim and the paint, but even that brings out an irrational fear ("Protect the paint") that they will lead the league in opponent 3P attempts and %. Hopefully, Singleton, Ariza, Beal, etc. don't let that happen.
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Post#145 Re: Predict the Wizards record in 2012-2013
Sat Nov 3, 2012 4:48 pm by Shorty

montestewart wrote:
payitforward wrote:Here's a shocker: barring significant injuries, I predict 44 wins.

(Looking for 1750 minutes from Nene and 1500 or fewer minutes from Crawford to support that notion. At some point the truth about Crawford has to break through)

Hats off to you. You're a true fan!


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Post#146 Re: Predict the Wizards record in 2012-2013
Sat Nov 3, 2012 5:16 pm by montestewart

Shorty wrote:
montestewart wrote:
payitforward wrote:Here's a shocker: barring significant injuries, I predict 44 wins.

(Looking for 1750 minutes from Nene and 1500 or fewer minutes from Crawford to support that notion. At some point the truth about Crawford has to break through)

Hats off to you. You're a true fan!


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Post#147 Re: Predict the Wizards record in 2012-2013
Sat Nov 3, 2012 8:47 pm by Chocolate City Jordanaire

Nivek wrote:
montestewart wrote:Still it's worth noting that three posters who draw much from advanced metrics (you, Nivek, and Nate33), who have to varying degrees offered withering criticisms of many/most of the team's recent moves, also have projections on the upper end of the prediction spectrum. Such harsh critiques are as easily higher (and not unrealistic) fan expectation as they are pessimism. Seemingly a contradiction on its face, but really not so much that the greater critiques/critics can offer higher win projections.


This is interesting. For me, it was easy to recognize that the team would likely have a better record this year than in previous years based on the moves they'd made. But, like payitforward posted, that's a low bar. Tripping over it with 30+ year olds playing key roles and then proclaiming it a step forward in the rebuild -- I find that disingenuous.

Like payitforward, I wanted to see the team build toward being a contender. They could likely have gotten to the same place (33-38 wins) while bringing in younger players who could be part of something. But, we've been through all this before.

Adding Okafor and Ariza was especially dumb in that it took away minutes from Seraphin, Singleton, and Vesely that they needed to be playing to get better. It put worse players, high priced veterans but worse, in front of young guys who at the end of last season had energy and enthusiasm and who last year won games together.

Mindless bad trade.
So, I'll be rooting for the team to win. I'm hoping it'll be fun for them to be at least in contention for that 8th playoff spot. But, I'd really hoped after last season that it would actually mean something -- that they'd be building toward something. They'll pretend it means something, but the way the roster is constructed, it's going to need significant retooling in a couple years. So, maybe squeaking into the playoffs the next couple years will be kinda like eating cotton candy.


I feel as if the Wizards would have been a 40-win team if they brought back the very same guys who won the last 6 games last season, plus they drafted Beal. That group with Nene, James Singleton, Kevin Seraphin, Jan Vesely, Cartier Martin, Shelvin Mack, Chris Singleton, Brian Cook and Morris Almond would have won 33-38 game just by adding Beal. They could have done that with a FA PG addition to the roster IMO.
It's not fool's gold. The Wizards are for real! Otto Porter is going to be a good one.
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Post#148 Re: Predict the Wizards record in 2012-2013
Sun Nov 4, 2012 12:42 am by nate33

Chocolate City Jordanaire wrote:I feel as if the Wizards would have been a 40-win team if they brought back the very same guys who won the last 6 games last season, plus they drafted Beal. That group with Nene, James Singleton, Kevin Seraphin, Jan Vesely, Cartier Martin, Shelvin Mack, Chris Singleton, Brian Cook and Morris Almond would have won 33-38 game just by adding Beal. They could have done that with a FA PG addition to the roster IMO.

Beal and Webster. That team last year was desperate for some competence from the SF spot. Webster (or somebody like him, like Danny Green for instance) was necessary.
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Post#149 Re: Predict the Wizards record in 2012-2013
Sun Nov 4, 2012 11:49 am by Chocolate City Jordanaire

How good would Washington be if competent management had acquired Danny Green and Ryan Anderson, along with Beal, who fell into their lap?

nate, you're right about the SF spot. Imagine D. Green/Webster/Singleton at SF and no Ariza. That's a huge upgrade. Add Cartier to that mix of players and at least the Wizards can compete. Salaries combined they might make what Ariza makes, too.
It's not fool's gold. The Wizards are for real! Otto Porter is going to be a good one.
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Post#150 Re: Predict the Wizards record in 2012-2013
Sun Nov 4, 2012 5:12 pm by closg00

Upper Decker wrote:I've tabulated everyone's predictions, if I missed one please repost with the edit. There were 51 submissions with a mean win prediction of 33.5, a median of 33, and a mode of 32. Historically the average projection of the board is 8-9 higher than actual. We shall see...

44 – Shorty, payitforward
43 – doclinkin
42
41 – nuposse04
40 – CaPtaiN eYeSaNo, Rafael122, Pancakes3
39 – dobrojim, Illuminaire
38 – DaRealHibachi, Free Balling
37 – BarnabyJones, Nate33, Nivek
36 – fugop, JAR69
35 – Higga, Tontoz, AnotherFinn, LyricalRico, Severn Hoos
34 – DCZards
33 – FAH1223, truwizfan4evr, Fishercob, dandridge 10, closg00
32 – MJG, Gesa2, Dangermouse, GhostsOfGil, The Consiglieri, hands11, miller31time
31 – Zonkerbl, willbcocks, bulletproof_32
30 – TheBigThree, montestewart, floydfan29
29 – CCJ, Benjamin, Dat2u, verbal8, benjamin
28 – hermitkid, Earth2Ted
27 – Halcyon
26
25 – Jay81
24 – sashae
23
22 – Upper Decker


Thanks for the recap, I assume you captured the various updates, some people understandably wavered.
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Post#151 Re: Predict the Wizards record in 2012-2013
Sun Nov 4, 2012 8:16 pm by hands11

Chocolate City Jordanaire wrote:I would add Webster, Singleton, Beal, and possibly even Ariza to the projected average to above-average.

Nivek, don't tell anyone but I still secretly believe a perfect storm, (is it too early for that reference?), of unlikely events could cause the Wizards to win as much as 45 games.

Webster, Ariza, and Okafor could all have bounce back years while both Nene and Wall defy the odds and heal completely pretty early in the season. Seraphin could continue his ascent and Wall could hit threes with confidence. Before Wall comes back, Pargo and Price can hit from outside and manage the game well enough that Wall's presence won't be terribly missed. Not every PG is as dynamic as Kyrie Irving.

I will stick with my usual doom and gloom, because that is what I think will happen with the Wizards. I said 29, but 39 is possible. Heck, 45 is possible but very unlikely only because of Nene being out. As IIRC, nate pointed out they played like a better-than-.500 team after the trade last season. If not for injuries, they still could.


So you really a closet optimist that gives into the mountain of negative pressure of a doom and gloomers. lol
Just a friendly poke CCJ. Nothing to over react about. :)

Well one part of the perfect storm has happened. Kevin S returned a week early and he looked awesome. He picked up right where he left off last year. Now we have to get him into the starting line up next game.

And as some of us have pointed out, Ves is continuing to develop. Nice to see him starting to shoot. I think over the next 5 games we are going to see him hit often enough that defenses have to cover him beyond just under the rim or cutting to it.

Now, the starting line ups has looked like ass the last two games but I don't think anyone though the Wizard would start the season looking anything but rough. But while there weren't a lot of good options, there were options better then what we saw. Those line up showed very little imagination or balls to do what needed to be done. Of the little I know about Randy's coaching style, I have to believe next game Kevin will be starting at a min. Hopefully Crawford will as well. At PG. They just have to have both out there. Crawford is their best ball handler and Kevin is their best healthy post player. And Beal needs a ball handling passing PG so he can get his game going. That leaves only one answer. Start Beal at PG.

The Wall injury really set this team back this year. Finally they had a starting quality PG and then poof. Then Kevin pulls up lame about out nowhere. At least Kevin was only out for 1 game. But with Nene already out, that was devastating.

With Wall out, they defiantly have their challenges. And its nothing Mack would have solved.

Mack, Beal, Trevor A, Booker and Okafor ... That line up would have sucked as well. Short term, it would have been marginally better because Mack is a better ball handler, but he isn't the answer.

The answer at PG is getting Livingston or moving Crawford to PG. By doing that, now Beal can play his game. Thats two positions that would be upgraded. Now they have Kevin as a post option. From there I could tolerate them giving Trover A a few more opportunities. But if he doesn't show up in the next game or two, move on. Try something else. Roll in C Singleton to start at SF. He did it all last year and he looks like his shot and driving ability is better this year. Trevor A has done nothing to show me he has beaten C Singleton for the spot. And if they need a better outside shot up shooter, but in Webster.

Again, The Wall injury hosed them to start the year. It put them into a cycle of trying to find a PG that was better then a back up PG which was all they were looking to upgrade. And not starting quality PG is hurting Beal. Its all connected. Losing Kevin just make it 2x as bad since Nene was out.

They can unravel this. But they have to do something boldish to do it. Either get Livingston or start Crawford at PG and play him 40-42 minutes a game.
Step by Step - viewtopic.php?f=35&t=1269473&start=45&p=36843686&view=show#p36843686

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Post#152 Re: Predict the Wizards record in 2012-2013
Sun Nov 4, 2012 8:21 pm by hands11

Upper Decker wrote:I've tabulated everyone's predictions, if I missed one please repost with the edit. There were 51 submissions with a mean win prediction of 33.5, a median of 33, and a mode of 32. Historically the average projection of the board is 8-9 higher than actual. We shall see...

44 – Shorty, payitforward
43 – doclinkin
42
41 – nuposse04
40 – CaPtaiN eYeSaNo, Rafael122, Pancakes3
39 – dobrojim, Illuminaire
38 – DaRealHibachi, Free Balling
37 – BarnabyJones, Nate33, Nivek
36 – fugop, JAR69
35 – Higga, Tontoz, AnotherFinn, LyricalRico, Severn Hoos
34 – DCZards
33 – FAH1223, truwizfan4evr, Fishercob, dandridge 10, closg00
32 – MJG, Gesa2, Dangermouse, GhostsOfGil, The Consiglieri, hands11, miller31time
31 – Zonkerbl, willbcocks, bulletproof_32
30 – TheBigThree, montestewart, floydfan29
29 – CCJ, Benjamin, Dat2u, verbal8, benjamin
28 – hermitkid, Earth2Ted
27 – Halcyon
26
25 – Jay81
24 – sashae
23
22 – Upper Decker


Thanks for taking the time to do that.
Step by Step - viewtopic.php?f=35&t=1269473&start=45&p=36843686&view=show#p36843686

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Post#153 Re: Predict the Wizards record in 2012-2013
Sun Nov 4, 2012 8:40 pm by hands11

dandridge 10 wrote:I find it ironic that payitforward is one of EG's biggest critics (most of it justified), yet he has the most optimism for this season. I'm not being critical, it just surprised me when I saw his prediction. Was his prediction in jest?


Either it was or he really is very optimistic and he might be trying to protect himself against the let down of it not happening by being overly negative outwardly. My guess is that more people are like that then openly optimistic people.

Being hopeful or being optimistic inside has nothing to do with how people act on the outside.

Some like me, I see the glass as half full until it is proven beyond a doubt to not be. I figure, why deal with the negative stuff until I am forced to by the reality on something not working out.

Some act negative the whole why there and then if things don't work out, they are emotionally protect from from the let down. If they do work out, then its just a pleasant surprise. And since failure is easier then success, they are right more often then not. And its easier to argue because the current failure is the reality. Basically, its much easier to be negative outwardly even if you are hopefully internally which is what most people are. Thats just the way people are wired. Most people hope for the best deep inside.

Truly being a negative person inside and out is more rare.

What I wrote isn't about payit specifically, Just people in general.
Step by Step - viewtopic.php?f=35&t=1269473&start=45&p=36843686&view=show#p36843686

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Post#154 Re: Predict the Wizards record in 2012-2013
Sun Nov 4, 2012 10:33 pm by hands11

tontoz wrote:
Nivek wrote:And here's the thing -- in my projection, I factor in health. Games played. Minutes played. All that. Still came up with 37 wins.



Interesting that Hollinger predicted 38. You two are probably looking at a lot of the same things.


Its a crap shoot until we knew something about Kevin, Nene and Wall. There is at least a 10 game swing depending on the health of those players.

Kevin coming back a week early was a surprise to most of us. If he was out another week or two, that's up to 6 more games that they would not have had any reasonable chance of winning.

News on Nene and Kevin were two biggest reasons I suggested doing a prediction II after three games. I figured it would take that long min for us to learn more about Nene and Kevin. Well the Kevin situation appears to be answered. Still waiting on learning when Nene will return.
Step by Step - viewtopic.php?f=35&t=1269473&start=45&p=36843686&view=show#p36843686

Why so many poster have hotties as avatars. If anything screams can't get any, that would be it.
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Post#155 Re: Predict the Wizards record in 2012-2013
Mon Nov 5, 2012 12:29 pm by sashae

Upper Decker wrote:I've tabulated everyone's predictions, if I missed one please repost with the edit. There were 51 submissions with a mean win prediction of 33.5, a median of 33, and a mode of 32. Historically the average projection of the board is 8-9 higher than actual. We shall see...

(..snip..)
24 – sashae



I'm not a pessimist, I'm a realist that follows our historical trends!

(oy vey.)
the wizards are good?!??
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