Predict the Wizards record in 2012-2013

[queridiculo]

I'm kinda surprised at the overall tabulation. I hate the offseason, but project more wins than the board average.

To me it all comes down to health.

With everybody on board I still feel like this could be a 40+ win team, but given the nature of Wall and Nene's injury I simply don't have any faith in them playing in more than 65% of the games this year.

[verbal8]

I'm kinda surprised at the overall tabulation. I hate the offseason, but project more wins than the board average.

What is really funny to me is Lyrical Rico, has them as being 2 games worse than your prediction.

[Nivek]

And here's the thing -- in my projection, I factor in health. Games played. Minutes played. All that. Still came up with 37 wins.

[montestewart]

And here's the thing -- in my projection, I factor in health. Games played. Minutes played. All that. Still came up with 37 wins.

You should factor in the relentless Injurio Telly-O-Tally-O Count machine that keeps ripping and cracking in my head. It could pull a lot of projections down.

[tontoz]

And here's the thing -- in my projection, I factor in health. Games played. Minutes played. All that. Still came up with 37 wins.

Interesting that Hollinger predicted 38. You two are probably looking at a lot of the same things.

[payitforward]

I find it ironic that payitforward is one of EG's biggest critics (most of it justified), yet he has the most optimism for this season. I'm not being critical, it just surprised me when I saw his prediction. Was his prediction in jest?

It surprised me too, payitforward, but you're a combination of enthusiastic fan optimism and loyal fan expectation that management could and should do better. Maybe I need to get a little more of the former.

Using last season WP48 numbers for all players on the roster (giving Beal a straw man average score), and projecting at least one possible spread of minutes, then assuming health sufficient to support those minutes, I came up with that shocking estimate.

Webster looked like a much better player than in the past, and had been saying that he was healthy for the first time in years, I thought and still think that his variance was more likely to be up then down. Ditto Singleton off his preseason (and given that last year was a tough one to be a rookie). And I thought we'd be keeping Mack not Pargo but had projected few enough minutes at that spot not to matter a whole bunch.

In retrospect, I underestimated the time it now looks like it'll take for Wall to come back -- meaning more minutes for Price/Pargo and therefore fewer wins for the team. And I fear that Nene too will be out for quite a while. His ability to come back, and to play at or near last year's level, is the single softest spot in the thinking behind my projection.

But from the responses above it seems I may not have communicated quite where I stand in re: the team. Even if we were to win 44 games I really don't care. I have no interest in us going back to the 40+ wins, one playoff series and out team that defines the best Ernie Grunfield can offer. And especially I don't want to do it based on veterans in the last 1/3 of their career -- meaning that this exalted number 44 wouldn't be easy to duplicate, would require us to get even more such veterans.

Screw mediocrity; I want to contend for a title. I'd rather fail at that effort than succeed at the current one. I detest the choices Ernie makes. I feel contempt for him, because he places the bar so low then gloats because he thinks he knows how to reach it.

Hence, I would have drafted Leonard (or maybe Motiejunas or somehow traded up for Valenciunas whom I loved) #6 in 2011. I would have drafted Faried (tho I also found Tobias Harris tempting) at #18. I would have traded McGee for some combo of expiring salary, and/or youth and/or picks. I would have paid off Rashard and signed Brand if possible, I would have landed Landry Fields or Kareem Rush as an FA, if the $$ made it at all possible I would have pursued Ilyasova, I would have used our #32 and 46 picks and signed an undrafted (e.g. Machado).

Perhaps you remember that I proposed (in jest because it would have been impossible to execute) a "radical trade-down strategy" for this year's draft that gave us I think it was 6 or 7 rookies. I was being humorous as I say, but that reflects my actual preference.

Hence, for me, 44 wins is not a happy prediction. It's back to the Ernie Grunfield BS era.

[montestewart]

I assumed you had actual numbers rather than optimism behind your projection, payitforward. For me, your optimism (or my pessimism) relates entirely to which good players will or will not miss games due to injury, and which not-so-good players will take their minutes. And many of us relate to why 44 wins isn't necessarily a good thing long term. (Although I kind of liked the Arenas-led and Webber-led teams at that level.)

Still it's worth noting that three posters who draw much from advanced metrics (you, Nivek, and Nate33), who have to varying degrees offered withering criticisms of many/most of the team's recent moves, also have projections on the upper end of the prediction spectrum. Such harsh critiques are as easily higher (and not unrealistic) fan expectation as they are pessimism. Seemingly a contradiction on its face, but really not so much that the greater critiques/critics can offer higher win projections.

[Nivek]

Still it's worth noting that three posters who draw much from advanced metrics (you, Nivek, and Nate33), who have to varying degrees offered withering criticisms of many/most of the team's recent moves, also have projections on the upper end of the prediction spectrum. Such harsh critiques are as easily higher (and not unrealistic) fan expectation as they are pessimism. Seemingly a contradiction on its face, but really not so much that the greater critiques/critics can offer higher win projections.

This is interesting. For me, it was easy to recognize that the team would likely have a better record this year than in previous years based on the moves they'd made. But, like payitforward posted, that's a low bar. Tripping over it with 30+ year olds playing key roles and then proclaiming it a step forward in the rebuild -- I find that disingenuous.

Like payitforward, I wanted to see the team build toward being a contender. They could likely have gotten to the same place (33-38 wins) while bringing in younger players who could be part of something. But, we've been through all this before.

So, I'll be rooting for the team to win. I'm hoping it'll be fun for them to be at least in contention for that 8th playoff spot. But, I'd really hoped after last season that it would actually mean something -- that they'd be building toward something. They'll pretend it means something, but the way the roster is constructed, it's going to need significant retooling in a couple years. So, maybe squeaking into the playoffs the next couple years will be kinda like eating cotton candy.

[montestewart]

I'm pretty sure I posted a few times a preliminary projection in that range (33-38 wins) based only on the last year's season ending roster, plus draft picks and reasonable short term additions, without discounting the value of adding Ilyasova, Danny Green, or some others longer term, if the chance arose. I didn't think Okafor/Ariza was necessarily a step backward as far as wins, and might bump them into the 40 range, but I gradually picked up a nagging fear that injuries would come crashing down, and my projection plummeted. Maybe that's irrational, but I've been a Bullets/Wizards fan for a long time, and I can't swear that all my responses to the team are necessarily rational.

I want the team to do better than my projection, watching a win is much more fun. I share the fear that they will do better yet be stuck outside serious contender status, stuck with too much salary tied to older players who will not help them get beyond that middling status. If the guys in the middle can be semi-healthy and on the court, it will be a nice change to see the Wizards defend the rim and the paint, but even that brings out an irrational fear ("Protect the paint") that they will lead the league in opponent 3P attempts and %. Hopefully, Singleton, Ariza, Beal, etc. don't let that happen.

[Shorty]

Here's a shocker: barring significant injuries, I predict 44 wins.

(Looking for 1750 minutes from Nene and 1500 or fewer minutes from Crawford to support that notion. At some point the truth about Crawford has to break through)

Hats off to you. You're a true fan!

Marcia, Marcia, Marcia!

[montestewart]

Here's a shocker: barring significant injuries, I predict 44 wins.

(Looking for 1750 minutes from Nene and 1500 or fewer minutes from Crawford to support that notion. At some point the truth about Crawford has to break through)

Hats off to you. You're a true fan!

Marcia, Marcia, Marcia!

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Still it's worth noting that three posters who draw much from advanced metrics (you, Nivek, and Nate33), who have to varying degrees offered withering criticisms of many/most of the team's recent moves, also have projections on the upper end of the prediction spectrum. Such harsh critiques are as easily higher (and not unrealistic) fan expectation as they are pessimism. Seemingly a contradiction on its face, but really not so much that the greater critiques/critics can offer higher win projections.

This is interesting. For me, it was easy to recognize that the team would likely have a better record this year than in previous years based on the moves they'd made. But, like payitforward posted, that's a low bar. Tripping over it with 30+ year olds playing key roles and then proclaiming it a step forward in the rebuild -- I find that disingenuous.

Like payitforward, I wanted to see the team build toward being a contender. They could likely have gotten to the same place (33-38 wins) while bringing in younger players who could be part of something. But, we've been through all this before.

Adding Okafor and Ariza was especially dumb in that it took away minutes from Seraphin, Singleton, and Vesely that they needed to be playing to get better. It put worse players, high priced veterans but worse, in front of young guys who at the end of last season had energy and enthusiasm and who last year won games together.

Mindless bad trade.
So, I'll be rooting for the team to win. I'm hoping it'll be fun for them to be at least in contention for that 8th playoff spot. But, I'd really hoped after last season that it would actually mean something -- that they'd be building toward something. They'll pretend it means something, but the way the roster is constructed, it's going to need significant retooling in a couple years. So, maybe squeaking into the playoffs the next couple years will be kinda like eating cotton candy.

I feel as if the Wizards would have been a 40-win team if they brought back the very same guys who won the last 6 games last season, plus they drafted Beal. That group with Nene, James Singleton, Kevin Seraphin, Jan Vesely, Cartier Martin, Shelvin Mack, Chris Singleton, Brian Cook and Morris Almond would have won 33-38 game just by adding Beal. They could have done that with a FA PG addition to the roster IMO.

[nate33]

I feel as if the Wizards would have been a 40-win team if they brought back the very same guys who won the last 6 games last season, plus they drafted Beal. That group with Nene, James Singleton, Kevin Seraphin, Jan Vesely, Cartier Martin, Shelvin Mack, Chris Singleton, Brian Cook and Morris Almond would have won 33-38 game just by adding Beal. They could have done that with a FA PG addition to the roster IMO.

Beal and Webster. That team last year was desperate for some competence from the SF spot. Webster (or somebody like him, like Danny Green for instance) was necessary.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

How good would Washington be if competent management had acquired Danny Green and Ryan Anderson, along with Beal, who fell into their lap?

nate, you're right about the SF spot. Imagine D. Green/Webster/Singleton at SF and no Ariza. That's a huge upgrade. Add Cartier to that mix of players and at least the Wizards can compete. Salaries combined they might make what Ariza makes, too.

[closg00]

I've tabulated everyone's predictions, if I missed one please repost with the edit. There were 51 submissions with a mean win prediction of 33.5, a median of 33, and a mode of 32. Historically the average projection of the board is 8-9 higher than actual. We shall see...

44 – Shorty, payitforward
43 – doclinkin
42
41 – nuposse04
40 – CaPtaiN eYeSaNo, Rafael122, Pancakes3
39 – dobrojim, Illuminaire
38 – DaRealHibachi, Free Balling
37 – BarnabyJones, Nate33, Nivek
36 – fugop, JAR69
35 – Higga, Tontoz, AnotherFinn, LyricalRico, Severn Hoos
34 – DCZards
33 – FAH1223, truwizfan4evr, Fishercob, dandridge 10, closg00
32 – MJG, Gesa2, Dangermouse, GhostsOfGil, The Consiglieri, hands11, miller31time
31 – Zonkerbl, willbcocks, bulletproof_32
30 – TheBigThree, montestewart, floydfan29
29 – CCJ, Benjamin, Dat2u, verbal8, benjamin
28 – hermitkid, Earth2Ted
27 – Halcyon
26
25 – Jay81
24 – sashae
23
22 – Upper Decker

Thanks for the recap, I assume you captured the various updates, some people understandably wavered.