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Predict the Wizards record in 2012-2013

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Post#151 Re: Predict the Wizards record in 2012-2013
Sun Nov 4, 2012 8:16 pm by hands11

Chocolate City Jordanaire wrote:I would add Webster, Singleton, Beal, and possibly even Ariza to the projected average to above-average.

Nivek, don't tell anyone but I still secretly believe a perfect storm, (is it too early for that reference?), of unlikely events could cause the Wizards to win as much as 45 games.

Webster, Ariza, and Okafor could all have bounce back years while both Nene and Wall defy the odds and heal completely pretty early in the season. Seraphin could continue his ascent and Wall could hit threes with confidence. Before Wall comes back, Pargo and Price can hit from outside and manage the game well enough that Wall's presence won't be terribly missed. Not every PG is as dynamic as Kyrie Irving.

I will stick with my usual doom and gloom, because that is what I think will happen with the Wizards. I said 29, but 39 is possible. Heck, 45 is possible but very unlikely only because of Nene being out. As IIRC, nate pointed out they played like a better-than-.500 team after the trade last season. If not for injuries, they still could.


So you really a closet optimist that gives into the mountain of negative pressure of a doom and gloomers. lol
Just a friendly poke CCJ. Nothing to over react about. :)

Well one part of the perfect storm has happened. Kevin S returned a week early and he looked awesome. He picked up right where he left off last year. Now we have to get him into the starting line up next game.

And as some of us have pointed out, Ves is continuing to develop. Nice to see him starting to shoot. I think over the next 5 games we are going to see him hit often enough that defenses have to cover him beyond just under the rim or cutting to it.

Now, the starting line ups has looked like ass the last two games but I don't think anyone though the Wizard would start the season looking anything but rough. But while there weren't a lot of good options, there were options better then what we saw. Those line up showed very little imagination or balls to do what needed to be done. Of the little I know about Randy's coaching style, I have to believe next game Kevin will be starting at a min. Hopefully Crawford will as well. At PG. They just have to have both out there. Crawford is their best ball handler and Kevin is their best healthy post player. And Beal needs a ball handling passing PG so he can get his game going. That leaves only one answer. Start Beal at PG.

The Wall injury really set this team back this year. Finally they had a starting quality PG and then poof. Then Kevin pulls up lame about out nowhere. At least Kevin was only out for 1 game. But with Nene already out, that was devastating.

With Wall out, they defiantly have their challenges. And its nothing Mack would have solved.

Mack, Beal, Trevor A, Booker and Okafor ... That line up would have sucked as well. Short term, it would have been marginally better because Mack is a better ball handler, but he isn't the answer.

The answer at PG is getting Livingston or moving Crawford to PG. By doing that, now Beal can play his game. Thats two positions that would be upgraded. Now they have Kevin as a post option. From there I could tolerate them giving Trover A a few more opportunities. But if he doesn't show up in the next game or two, move on. Try something else. Roll in C Singleton to start at SF. He did it all last year and he looks like his shot and driving ability is better this year. Trevor A has done nothing to show me he has beaten C Singleton for the spot. And if they need a better outside shot up shooter, but in Webster.

Again, The Wall injury hosed them to start the year. It put them into a cycle of trying to find a PG that was better then a back up PG which was all they were looking to upgrade. And not starting quality PG is hurting Beal. Its all connected. Losing Kevin just make it 2x as bad since Nene was out.

They can unravel this. But they have to do something boldish to do it. Either get Livingston or start Crawford at PG and play him 40-42 minutes a game.
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Post#152 Re: Predict the Wizards record in 2012-2013
Sun Nov 4, 2012 8:21 pm by hands11

Upper Decker wrote:I've tabulated everyone's predictions, if I missed one please repost with the edit. There were 51 submissions with a mean win prediction of 33.5, a median of 33, and a mode of 32. Historically the average projection of the board is 8-9 higher than actual. We shall see...

44 – Shorty, payitforward
43 – doclinkin
42
41 – nuposse04
40 – CaPtaiN eYeSaNo, Rafael122, Pancakes3
39 – dobrojim, Illuminaire
38 – DaRealHibachi, Free Balling
37 – BarnabyJones, Nate33, Nivek
36 – fugop, JAR69
35 – Higga, Tontoz, AnotherFinn, LyricalRico, Severn Hoos
34 – DCZards
33 – FAH1223, truwizfan4evr, Fishercob, dandridge 10, closg00
32 – MJG, Gesa2, Dangermouse, GhostsOfGil, The Consiglieri, hands11, miller31time
31 – Zonkerbl, willbcocks, bulletproof_32
30 – TheBigThree, montestewart, floydfan29
29 – CCJ, Benjamin, Dat2u, verbal8, benjamin
28 – hermitkid, Earth2Ted
27 – Halcyon
26
25 – Jay81
24 – sashae
23
22 – Upper Decker


Thanks for taking the time to do that.
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Post#153 Re: Predict the Wizards record in 2012-2013
Sun Nov 4, 2012 8:40 pm by hands11

dandridge 10 wrote:I find it ironic that payitforward is one of EG's biggest critics (most of it justified), yet he has the most optimism for this season. I'm not being critical, it just surprised me when I saw his prediction. Was his prediction in jest?


Either it was or he really is very optimistic and he might be trying to protect himself against the let down of it not happening by being overly negative outwardly. My guess is that more people are like that then openly optimistic people.

Being hopeful or being optimistic inside has nothing to do with how people act on the outside.

Some like me, I see the glass as half full until it is proven beyond a doubt to not be. I figure, why deal with the negative stuff until I am forced to by the reality on something not working out.

Some act negative the whole why there and then if things don't work out, they are emotionally protect from from the let down. If they do work out, then its just a pleasant surprise. And since failure is easier then success, they are right more often then not. And its easier to argue because the current failure is the reality. Basically, its much easier to be negative outwardly even if you are hopefully internally which is what most people are. Thats just the way people are wired. Most people hope for the best deep inside.

Truly being a negative person inside and out is more rare.

What I wrote isn't about payit specifically, Just people in general.
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Post#154 Re: Predict the Wizards record in 2012-2013
Sun Nov 4, 2012 10:33 pm by hands11

tontoz wrote:
Nivek wrote:And here's the thing -- in my projection, I factor in health. Games played. Minutes played. All that. Still came up with 37 wins.



Interesting that Hollinger predicted 38. You two are probably looking at a lot of the same things.


Its a crap shoot until we knew something about Kevin, Nene and Wall. There is at least a 10 game swing depending on the health of those players.

Kevin coming back a week early was a surprise to most of us. If he was out another week or two, that's up to 6 more games that they would not have had any reasonable chance of winning.

News on Nene and Kevin were two biggest reasons I suggested doing a prediction II after three games. I figured it would take that long min for us to learn more about Nene and Kevin. Well the Kevin situation appears to be answered. Still waiting on learning when Nene will return.
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Post#155 Re: Predict the Wizards record in 2012-2013
Mon Nov 5, 2012 12:29 pm by sashae

Upper Decker wrote:I've tabulated everyone's predictions, if I missed one please repost with the edit. There were 51 submissions with a mean win prediction of 33.5, a median of 33, and a mode of 32. Historically the average projection of the board is 8-9 higher than actual. We shall see...

(..snip..)
24 – sashae



I'm not a pessimist, I'm a realist that follows our historical trends!

(oy vey.)
otto porter is depressing.
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Post#156 Re: Predict the Wizards record in 2012-2013
Tue Nov 6, 2012 1:33 am by hands11

http://www.nba.com/wizards/video/2012/1 ... ov-2278411

Worth watching just to check out Casey's legs, pretty face and sexy slender body for 20 minutes.

Nice discussion about the team.

Love the bone Randy got thrown. A baby Pop. Nice. Thats something I said I saw some of as well. Lets hope he keep it up. So far, this year he hasn't. But its only been two games. I expect adjustments in the starting line up next game.
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Post#157 Re: Predict the Wizards record in 2012-2013
Tue Nov 6, 2012 1:43 pm by GhostsOfGil

hands11 wrote:http://www.nba.com/wizards/video/2012/11/05/PressBox110512webmov-2278411

Worth watching just to check out Casey's legs, pretty face and sexy slender body for 20 minutes.

Nice discussion about the team.

Love the bone Randy got thrown. A baby Pop. Nice. Thats something I said I saw some of as well. Lets hope he keep it up. So far, this year he hasn't. But its only been two games. I expect adjustments in the starting line up next game.


Im kinda tired of watching these Wizards.com videos. IMO the Culture change is overstated and was changed as soon as Mcgee and Blatche got the boot. Wizards analysts love to justify the Okafor and Ariza traded with this crap and frankly I'm tired of it.

Good to see Mike Prada (and Casey Phillips) out there though.
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Post#158 Re: Predict the Wizards record in 2012-2013
Fri Nov 16, 2012 10:29 am by queridiculo

It's only seven games, but is anybody willing to adjust their predictions based on what we've seen from this squad so far?

28 wins seems like a pretty lofty proposition right now.
..let's keep in mind that while the Wizards were trading for Okafor and Ariza, giving away a draft pick and cap room, bypassing the free agent market and rejecting a trade for Harden, Leonsis was publicly congratulating himself for being smart. - Nivek
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Post#159 Re: Predict the Wizards record in 2012-2013
Fri Nov 16, 2012 10:41 am by Chocolate City Jordanaire

Chocolate City Jordanaire wrote:The Wizards are feeling confident about Jordan Crawford's improvement. He has stood out so far in training camp.

I think they'll go 29-53.

I believe there will be significant games missed by Nene to curb any enthusiasm. Wall missing games will probably not be as traumatic or costly to the win total as most think. I think Shelvin might do better than most imagine. I don't see enough offense and star power to win games any other way than defensively.

If Nene plays 70 games, I would up the record to 37-45; but I think he's going to miss a good bit of the season.


I wouldn't change one word, other than to say Shelvin might do better in Europe. :)

Kid is better off away from a group that doesn't appreciate class, effort, and numerical analysis that shows a player effective.
Will the Wizards' success be sustained or was it fool's gold?
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Post#160 Re: Predict the Wizards record in 2012-2013
Fri Nov 16, 2012 12:52 pm by Higga

hermitkid wrote:It's only seven games, but is anybody willing to adjust their predictions based on what we've seen from this squad so far?

28 wins seems like a pretty lofty proposition right now.


I predicted 35. As bad as we are right now, I could see us going on a run late in the year(like we always do)to inflate our win total once we're playing meaningless games and win 35 instead of like 28 or 29.
Eric Maynor is the worst basketball player I've ever seen.
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Post#161 Re: Predict the Wizards record in 2012-2013
Fri Nov 16, 2012 2:38 pm by AFM

Can I give my prediction? I know I'm late, but please put me down for 25 wins.
WizarDynasty wrote:Ted is trying to transform you from a bullet .....piece of metal shot from a gin into a wizard....wise.... wisest fans in the .ba. board has a long way to go but ee have wise wizard posters to guide into Ted the savior rescue operation.
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Post#162 Re: Predict the Wizards record in 2012-2013
Fri Nov 16, 2012 3:01 pm by rockymac52

I unfortunately missed out on making my prediction.

I texted my friend about a week before the season started that I thought we'd get 37-40 wins this season, even with the injuries. So since I'm late, go ahead and put me down for a record of 40-42.

Don't quite see that happening as much now that we're 0-7 and the pessimism is growing day by day, but oh well, that's what I said to my friend, so that's all I have to go off of, so that's what I'll be sticking to I suppose. Then again, if Wall and Nene can return in the next 2-3 weeks, I still believe we can be a .500 team or so. We'd need to go 40-35 from here on out for my prediction to be correct. Seems like a bit of a stretch, but it's within reach.
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Post#163 Re: Predict the Wizards record in 2012-2013
Fri Nov 16, 2012 3:10 pm by Zonkerbl

If the zards go 0-16 before Nene and Wall get back, they'll have 66 games left to play. If they play .500 ball the rest of the year they'd have 33 wins and miss the playoffs.

God, this franchise sucks.
Comparing Rose to Wall is like asking which is a more impressive cat: A cheetah or a wolf? Dude, Wall ain’t no damn cat!
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Post#164 Re: Predict the Wizards record in 2012-2013
Fri Nov 16, 2012 3:28 pm by AFM

You shouldn't really begin that sentence with "if".
WizarDynasty wrote:Ted is trying to transform you from a bullet .....piece of metal shot from a gin into a wizard....wise.... wisest fans in the .ba. board has a long way to go but ee have wise wizard posters to guide into Ted the savior rescue operation.
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Post#165 Re: Predict the Wizards record in 2012-2013
Sat Nov 17, 2012 9:22 pm by closg00

closg00 wrote:Injury issues and scoring problems, put me down for 33 wins.


Is it too-late to change our win-total to that of last years Bobcats?
Guys on a message board could do a better job managing the Wizards than Ernie Grunfeld.
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Post#166 Re: Predict the Wizards record in 2012-2013
Sun Nov 25, 2012 2:25 pm by Joe_Wiz

It looks like my prediction way back on page 2 of this thread never got put into the final list. While I'm pointing this out, I'd like to add that there was a typo in my original prediction. Whereas I typed "37-45", what I REALLY meant was 17-65 (or maybe I meant 7-75 . . . I'm having trouble remembering -- ask me in March).
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Post#167 Re: Predict the Wizards record in 2012-2013
Sun Nov 25, 2012 2:38 pm by montestewart

Yeah, but 17-65 or 7-75, it'll be the best ever!
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Post#168 Re: Predict the Wizards record in 2012-2013
Sun Nov 25, 2012 4:53 pm by Halcyon

I think mid-20 wins is doable. I'm feeling good about my prediction...

:(
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Post#169 Re: Predict the Wizards record in 2012-2013
Fri Jan 11, 2013 7:58 pm by JAR69

Bump. If Wall comes back against Atlanta, that is the start of the rest of the season. Predictions for the last 49 games? I'm going to optimistically say they are a .500 team, and will go 25-24.
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Post#170 Re: Predict the Wizards record in 2012-2013
Fri Jan 11, 2013 8:23 pm by mohammed10

JAR69 wrote:Bump. If Wall comes back against Atlanta, that is the start of the rest of the season. Predictions for the last 49 games? I'm going to optimistically say they are a .500 team, and will go 25-24.


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