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Looking at the numbers . . .

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Post#1 Looking at the numbers . . .
Sat Nov 10, 2012 6:28 pm by penbeast0

looking at the stats for the 1st 4 games, a few things jump out.

(a) As a team the offense has truly been suck. The 4 factor test leaves us in the mid 20s in everything with efg and foul draw as the biggest problem. The defense has been good at creating turnovers and defensive rebounding (despite underwhelming rebounding numbers for individual players) although it is still well below average at opp efg.

(b) the 3 best players on the team so far per minute have been Cartier Martin, Earl Barron, and Chris Singleton in that order . . . they are the players who have played the least minutes in that order. A.J. Price has the highest minutes . . . and might just be the player who has played the worst.

(c) Kevin Seraphin hasn't been as good as all that; he's scored well but he's leading the team in turnover rate. Doesn't mean he isn't the guy with the biggest upside except maybe Beal but it's a problem to work on. Okafor is the opposite; he doesn't do much but has easily the lowest TOV giving him a higher PER than Seraphin.

(d) Martell Webster needs to start looking for his shot. He's shooting the least on the team (and of course, he would be the one with the highest efg and ts% except for Barron and Martin who have a total of 22 minutes between them).

By PER, the 5 starters should be
Okafor
Singleton
Ariza
Crawford
and whoever of Cartier Martin or Earl Barron is on the squad; otherwise Brad Beal by a hair over Webster and Seraphin. Vesely, Booker and the PGs have been suck.
[quote="Nivek"] This post could come only from a Wizards fan. It somehow combines delusional optimism with soul-crushing pessimism.
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Post#2 Re: Looking at the numbers . . .
Sat Nov 10, 2012 7:28 pm by payitforward

penbeast0 wrote:...Kevin Seraphin hasn't been as good as all that....

Agreed. A lot of hot air is being used to inflate a balloon about him. Hope he becomes a really good player. So far, that's not the case.

penbeast0 wrote:By PER, the 5 starters should be
Okafor
Singleton
Ariza
Crawford
and whoever of Cartier Martin or Earl Barron is on the squad; otherwise Brad Beal by a hair over Webster and Seraphin. Vesely, Booker and the PGs have been suck

Why would you pick a starting 5 based on PER, which doesn't correlate nearly as well w/ wins and losses as it should.

Crawford isn't playing well or anything, but he's playing better than last year. Given the low level performance of Price and the absolutely abysmal minutes we are getting from Jannero Pargo (no surprise either), I'd probably start Crawford and Beal and then give Webster almost all the minutes backing them up. Don't know how that'd work but our current guard rotation sure won't.
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Post#3 Re: Looking at the numbers . . .
Sat Nov 10, 2012 8:28 pm by penbeast0

This post was about the raw stats; PER is basically a counting stat that tries to total up everything across the board so it's a decent first cut even if you have to take it with a large grain of salt (otherwise Jose Calderon makes an All-Star team).

For a real starting rotation, I'd post in that thread and yeah, I'd try Crawford and Beal starting together -- more to try to get Crawford to think about passing less than taking those long contested shots early in the shot clock than because I think he's an NBA PG. For what it's worth, Price is having a good game in IND so far.
[quote="Nivek"] This post could come only from a Wizards fan. It somehow combines delusional optimism with soul-crushing pessimism.
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Post#4 Re: Looking at the numbers . . .
Sun Nov 11, 2012 4:04 pm by payitforward

penbeast0 wrote:This post was about the raw stats; PER is basically a counting stat that tries to total up everything across the board so it's a decent first cut....

PER is a weighting and counting stat -- not a counting stat. It gives certain numbers more value than others. In particular, the more you shoot the higher your PER climbs (unless you shoot under 30% I believe).
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Post#5 Re: Looking at the numbers . . .
Sun Nov 11, 2012 4:58 pm by AFM

No way has AJ Price been our worst player.
I'd like you to meet our 2 all stars, Jannero Pargo and Jan Vesely.
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Post#6 Re: Looking at the numbers . . .
Mon Nov 12, 2012 9:37 am by Nivek

Correct across the board, payitforward. I used to think PER was okay as a first look, approximate value thing, but the efficiency problem with that stat is HUGE. I'm going to take a look at the numbers on my blog today (and I'll just add on to this thread once I've had a chance to do some analysis).
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Post#7 Re: Looking at the numbers . . .
Mon Nov 12, 2012 10:21 am by fishercob

Nivek wrote:Correct across the board, payitforward. I used to think PER was okay as a first look, approximate value thing, but the efficiency problem with that stat is HUGE. I'm going to take a look at the numbers on my blog today (and I'll just add on to this thread once I've had a chance to do some analysis).



When I do a first look, I now look at ORtg and usage rate. I agree that PER is not a very useful metric and am really surprised that a seemingly smart guy like Hollinger clings to it.
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Post#8 Re: Looking at the numbers . . .
Mon Nov 12, 2012 1:37 pm by Nivek

My look at the numbers is here.

Caveat: it's only 5 games.

Summary of what I blogged:

- Wiz have 4th worst scoring margin vs. the league's easiest schedule thus far
- They're 2nd to last in SRS (a team-strength measure combining scoring margin and strength of schedule)
- Ariza has been the team's most productive player thus far despite horrific offensive efficiency
- I don't trust Crawford's above-average rating
- Beal has bounced back from a rough start to a near-average rating
- Booker, Vesely and Seraphin have been awful
- It's going to be difficult to turn things around without Nene

Click here for a more detailed look.
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Post#9 Re: Looking at the numbers . . .
Mon Nov 12, 2012 5:19 pm by blazinskillz

AJ price has been decent. If you were expecting him to come in an be an allstar or anything better than an average PG, your expectations were crazy. To me he's been better than expected actually.


Beal has picked up his play like I knew he would. I wish he had better handles to take his defender off the dribble, but hopefully that's something he'll work on

Ariza has been productive and a good defender. I really didn't expect much from him this year. 9pts, 5rebs, 1.5 stl's in 30 mins a game is what I came into the season thinking

Okafor has been ho-hum. I just expected him to give a Perkins like Presence out there. Grab a few rbs, block a shot or two and defend the rim.

Crawford is in the perfect role for him. My expectations for him is on point. I actually think he should play a few more minutes together with Beal

Webster has slightly disappoint me. His pre season numbers had me thinking he'll perform a lil better but it's still early

Kevin S. is playing mind games with himself. I still think those end of game To's are in his head and he's playing hard not to disappoint.

I truely think that if Wall and Nene was healthy, we would at least be 3-2. We were competitive with out two best players out, for a team like the wizards that doesnt have that many decent players to begin with, that's huge.
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Post#10 Re: Looking at the numbers . . .
Mon Nov 12, 2012 5:33 pm by Nivek

AJ Price rated a 77 in my system last season. So far this season: 77. (100 = average; higher is better) I projected him to finish the season at 67, which is probably about where he was after 4 games.

His performance has been okay for a backup PG. Wiz need Wall back for better overall play, although Wall isn't going to help the offense a ton -- unless he comes back with an improved jumper and fewer turnovers. He might help with some transition looks, if he plays under control. For them to make a jump on offense, I think they need Nene back.
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Post#11 Re: Looking at the numbers . . .
Mon Nov 12, 2012 5:34 pm by Nivek

I put up my first power ratings of the season.

Combination of efficiency, four factors and strength of schedule. Wiz have 4th worst efficiency differential against league's easiest schedule so far. I have them ranked 29th -- Detroit is 30th.
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Post#12 Re: Looking at the numbers . . .
Mon Nov 12, 2012 10:28 pm by closg00

Guys on a message board could do a better job managing the Wizards than Ernie Grunfeld.
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Post#13 Re: Looking at the numbers . . .
Mon Nov 12, 2012 11:41 pm by blazinskillz

Nivek wrote:AJ Price rated a 77 in my system last season. So far this season: 77. (100 = average; higher is better) I projected him to finish the season at 67, which is probably about where he was after 4 games.

His performance has been okay for a backup PG. Wiz need Wall back for better overall play, although Wall isn't going to help the offense a ton -- unless he comes back with an improved jumper and fewer turnovers. He might help with some transition looks, if he plays under control. For them to make a jump on offense, I think they need Nene back.


I disagree. Jumper or no jumper, Wall is gonna drive and cause teams to pack it in the paint, opening better looks for Beal and other shooters. We do need Nene back but Wall is Rondo-lite in a sense. Some advance statistics doesn't past the eye test and the overall flow of the game. Wall in the 4th quarter these past few games would of helped us tremendously. Outside of Crawford, nobody else on the team that plays with that fire and intensity.
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Post#14 Re: Looking at the numbers . . .
Tue Nov 13, 2012 12:16 am by Chocolate City Jordanaire

Nivek, I bet the numbers show Chris Singleton is the best PF on the team.

I think it is a pity he's playing PF.
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Post#15 Re: Looking at the numbers . . .
Tue Nov 13, 2012 4:02 am by rockymac52

Chocolate City Jordanaire wrote:Nivek, I bet the numbers show Chris Singleton is the best PF on the team.

I think it is a pity he's playing PF.


I'm confused by these two sentences. Are you saying Singleton is better at PF than at SF, or the opposite? I can't tell.

Regardless, the numbers show that Singleton is a much better SF than PF so far in his career. That applies to both last season and this season. This is based on the NBA Geek's website and statistics.
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Post#16 Re: Looking at the numbers . . .
Tue Nov 13, 2012 9:56 am by payitforward

Chocolate City Jordanaire wrote:Nivek, I bet the numbers show Chris Singleton is the best PF on the team.

I think it is a pity he's playing PF.

I think it's a pity he's not playing a lot more minutes. He's fouling at a high rate, that's true -- so play him until he fouls out.
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Post#17 Re: Looking at the numbers . . .
Tue Nov 13, 2012 10:00 am by payitforward

Nivek wrote:My look at the numbers is here.

Caveat: it's only 5 games.

Summary of what I blogged:

- Wiz have 4th worst scoring margin vs. the league's easiest schedule thus far
- They're 2nd to last in SRS (a team-strength measure combining scoring margin and strength of schedule)
- Ariza has been the team's most productive player thus far despite horrific offensive efficiency
- I don't trust Crawford's above-average rating
- Beal has bounced back from a rough start to a near-average rating
- Booker, Vesely and Seraphin have been awful
- It's going to be difficult to turn things around without Nene

Click here for a more detailed look.

Very interesting -- obviously you're adjusting for PT in deciding who to call most productive. Otherwise, I can't see how Singleton wouldn't come out on top. Certainly he's had the biggest jump from last year, yes?
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Post#18 Re: Looking at the numbers . . .
Wed Nov 14, 2012 9:23 am by Nivek

No playing time adjustment -- those are per minute numbers. And they're pretty close. Singleton more efficient and more rebounds; Ariza with more assists, steals, and blocks, as well as fewer turnovers and fouls. Singleton has a high foul rate.
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Post#19 Re: Looking at the numbers . . .
Wed Nov 14, 2012 4:41 pm by Nivek

So far this season, 23% of Wizards field goal attempts have been at-rim -- lowest proportion in the league. 59% of their FGA have been long jumpers (shots from beyond 16 feet) -- highest proportion in the league.
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Post#20 Re: Looking at the numbers . . .
Mon Nov 19, 2012 12:45 pm by Nivek

Updated the numbers at my blog.

Also took a look at other teams that started 0-8.

Wiz one of only two teams to start consecutive seasons 0-8.

Improvers since last week:

- Okafor
- Price (a little)
- Booker
- Seraphin (a little)

Decliners:
- Ariza
- Crawford
- Webster
- Singleton
- Beal
- Vesely
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