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Washington Wizards Roster Composition

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Beal, Bradley

Porter, Otto

Singleton, Chris

Wall, John

Booker, Trevor

Rice, Glen

Seraphin, Kevin

Ariza, Trevor

Gortat, Marcin

Miller, Andre

Nene, Maybyner

Gooden, Drew

Harrington, Al

Temple, Garrett

Webster, Martell

See detailed Washington Wizards roster composition

Looking at the numbers . . .

Moderators: WizStorm, miller31time, nate33, LyricalRico

Post#141 Re: Looking at the numbers . . .
Tue Jan 8, 2013 8:56 pm by hands11

Nivek wrote:What if this works?

What does that even mean?

"It's" already failed. If the Wizards play .500 ball the rest of the way, they'd finish with 30 wins. If they win 60% of their remaining games (31-21) they'd finish 35-47. They'd need to go 37-15 (.711) to reach .500 this season.

I thought they could win 37 games this season. They'd have to go 33-19 (.634) to reach that "lofty" goal.


Just so I get what you are suggesting. Finishing 31-21 and winning 60% of their remaining games once healthy would be not working ?
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Post#142 Re: Looking at the numbers . . .
Tue Jan 8, 2013 9:21 pm by montestewart

I had low expectations for the Wizards, because all their moves and non-moves said "don't expect much," and they made no other moves, and everyone was looking pretty injured, and my expectation just kept going lower and lower. I think I ended up predicting 30 wins or thereabouts, but it was plummeting number that was frozen in time, capable of going lower with a few more days.

For all those low expectations, the team EG put together is worse than I expected, and they would have to have a likely unprecedented turnaround to reach some of our preseason predictions. If they do that, I'll say "Wow, this teams actually pretty average when everyone's healthy and they're all on top of their games. If they play at a 60% clip, someone's probably about to be suspended for steroids.
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Post#143 Re: Looking at the numbers . . .
Wed Jan 9, 2013 8:09 am by Nivek

montestewart wrote: If they play at a 60% clip, someone's probably about to be suspended for steroids.


Indeed. The chances of it happening aren't zero, but they'd be hard to distinguish from zero.
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Post#144 Re: Looking at the numbers . . .
Wed Jan 9, 2013 8:26 am by Nivek

Just because...

In the 2011 draft, the Wizards selected Jan Vesely, Chris Singleton and Shelvin Mack. The most productive player per minute from those three: Mack. Who they've cut twice.

Both Vesely and Singleton have more total production of course because they played more minutes. Singleton has about 40% more total "credits" in double the playing time. Vesely has about 25% more credits in about 55% more minutes.

Have started running an unadjusted PPA (meaning not adjusting for pace or defense) on former Wizards/Bullets. It's obviously not as precise as the full PPA, but that takes time and I'm only looking for approximate values anyway.

Saddest numbers I ran were for John "Hot Plate" Williams and Pervis Ellison. Both had seasons in Washington where they produced like top 15-20 players in the league. Both had major injuries and never fully recovered.

Taking requests here or on Twitter, for anyone who's interested.
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Post#145 Re: Looking at the numbers . . .
Wed Jan 9, 2013 9:59 am by Nivek

MikeG over at the APBRmetrics board has a handy way of estimating how many starters a player faces during his minutes on the floor. A low-minute starter would face more starters than a reserve playing the same number of minutes.

The current high is Willie Green who has started every game for the Clippers, but averages just 18.6 mpg. His "starter percentage" (Sta%) is 87%.

On the low end for players with at least 200 minutes is Joel Anthony -- averaging 8.8 minutes, all off the bench -- at 39%.

Full roster:

Code: Select all
PLAYER          GMS     MPG     STA%
Emeka Okafor    33      23.9    82%
Trevor Ariza    16      24.3    77%
Bradley Beal    31      31.3    77%
A.J. Price      18      27.1    76%
Trevor Booker   9       24.1    76%
Garrett Temple  8       31.9    72%
Martell Webster 32      27.1    68%
Jordan Crawford 31      29.8    64%
Nene Hilario    20      23.8    63%
Shelvin Mack    7       20.1    58%
Kevin Seraphin  32      25.3    58%
Chris Singleton 28      17.2    57%
Shaun Livngston 17      18.8    56%
Jan Vesely      26      13.2    50%
Earl Barron     11      11.1    46%
Cartier Martin  23      17.6    45%
Jannero Pargo   7       14.6    43%


League average STA% is about 66%.
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Post#146 Re: Looking at the numbers . . .
Wed Jan 16, 2013 11:05 am by Nivek

Comprehensive rookie ratings over at the blog.

Drummond is atop the list. Beal ranks 16th -- right at average for this class of rookies (minimum 200 total minutes). Needs to continue his recent improvement.
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Post#147 Re: Looking at the numbers . . .
Wed Jan 16, 2013 11:52 am by AFM

Interesting. He's 2nd on NBA's rookie ladder. Not sure someone averaging 11 MPG deserves to be on that list.
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Post#148 Re: Looking at the numbers . . .
Wed Jan 16, 2013 12:11 pm by nate33

Nivek wrote:Comprehensive rookie ratings over at the blog.

Drummond is atop the list. Beal ranks 16th -- right at average for this class of rookies (minimum 200 total minutes). Needs to continue his recent improvement.

I'm a big believer in per-minute numbers, but only up to a point. Guys that are playing 15 minutes per game or fewer really get their numbers skewed because they are so often playing against backups and/or playing only in garbage time. I would pretty much disregard any of these rookies playing 16 minutes or less.

With that in mind, Beal looks considerably better, ranking 8th behind only Drummond, Davis, Kidd-Gilchrist, Lillard, Sullinger, Valanciunas, and Barnes. Beal has been coming on strong lately. If he keeps it up, I'd like to see a new study utilizing only January numbers. My guess is Beal would rank in the top 4 or 5.

From my own, completely unscientific observations, ranking recent play more heavily than play in November and early December, I'd say Beal is somewhere between the 4th and 6th best rookie, behind Lilliard, Drummond and Davis, and somewhere among Kidd Gilchrist, Sullinger and Valanciunas. Given the respective ages and experience of all players mentioned, the only player who I might potentially regret not drafting at #3 is Drummond.
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Post#149 Re: Looking at the numbers . . .
Wed Jan 16, 2013 12:16 pm by Nivek

AFM wrote:Interesting. He's 2nd on NBA's rookie ladder. Not sure someone averaging 11 MPG deserves to be on that list.


I've paid very little attention to the NBA Rookie Ladder. Looks absurd to me. :D Looks to be some combination of per game pts, reb and ast, as well as minutes played.

If I re-sort my rookie rankings using total credits (instead of per minute), the top 10 would look like this:

  1. Lillard
  2. Drummond
  3. MKG
  4. Davis
  5. Barnes
  6. Beal
  7. Shved
  8. Sullinger
  9. Valanciunas
  10. Singler

But, at that point the results are pretty overwhelmed by minutes.
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Post#150 Re: Looking at the numbers . . .
Wed Jan 16, 2013 12:17 pm by Nivek

nate33 wrote:
Nivek wrote:Comprehensive rookie ratings over at the blog.

Drummond is atop the list. Beal ranks 16th -- right at average for this class of rookies (minimum 200 total minutes). Needs to continue his recent improvement.

I'm a big believer in per-minute numbers, but only up to a point. Guys that are playing 15 minutes per game or fewer really get their numbers skewed because they are so often playing against backups and/or playing only in garbage time. I would pretty much disregard any of these rookies playing 16 minutes or less.


Already accounted for in PPA. The numbers include an adjustment based on that Starter% term.
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Post#151 Re: Looking at the numbers . . .
Wed Jan 16, 2013 12:19 pm by nate33

Nivek wrote:
nate33 wrote:
Nivek wrote:Comprehensive rookie ratings over at the blog.

Drummond is atop the list. Beal ranks 16th -- right at average for this class of rookies (minimum 200 total minutes). Needs to continue his recent improvement.

I'm a big believer in per-minute numbers, but only up to a point. Guys that are playing 15 minutes per game or fewer really get their numbers skewed because they are so often playing against backups and/or playing only in garbage time. I would pretty much disregard any of these rookies playing 16 minutes or less.


Already accounted for in PPA. The numbers include an adjustment based on that Starter% term.

Wow. Nice!
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Post#152 Re: Looking at the numbers . . .
Wed Jan 16, 2013 12:26 pm by Nivek

I normally use 500 minutes as the cutoff for reliability in per minute stats. (Research from some of the stat guys suggest per minute stats stabilize around 150 total minutes, but I've always preferred 500.) I used 200 for the rookies because the season isn't even to the halfway point yet.

But, out of curiosity, I went to the 500-minute cutoff point. So far, 23 rookies have played at least 500 minutes. Beal ranks 11th in PPA among that group. Rookies with 500+ minutes have an average PPA of 80 so far -- a little better than Beal's 75.
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Post#153 Re: Looking at the numbers . . .
Wed Jan 16, 2013 12:31 pm by AFM

I know it's a small sample size but what's Beal's PPA in the last month?
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Post#154 Re: Looking at the numbers . . .
Wed Jan 16, 2013 12:59 pm by Nivek

AFM wrote:I know it's a small sample size but what's Beal's PPA in the last month?


Here are Beal's PPA scores by month:

Oct/Nov -- 52
December -- 65
January -- 124

The January number IS encouraging, but when I drill down, I do see things that make me...well..."nervous" isn't quite the right word, but it'll do. Specifically, Beal's improvement is almost exclusively in the category of 3pt shooting. His 2pt% is .397 in January -- down from .447 in December, which was up from .333 in Oct/Nov.

In January, his per minute numbers are down if fta, reb, and ast. He's a little better in steals, turnovers and fouls. All his numbers are at least decent for a SG, so no real worries. More of an observation, really.
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Post#155 Re: Looking at the numbers . . .
Wed Jan 16, 2013 1:14 pm by tontoz

A few weeks ago Beal tried to dunk on Josh Smith and got punked so badly he ended up missing a couple of games. Against OKC he tried to dunk on Ibaka. He definitely has a lot to learn as far as finishing in/near the paint.

It also seems like too often he will go up for a jumper when a defender is in a good position to block/contest it.
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Post#156 Re: Looking at the numbers . . .
Wed Jan 16, 2013 1:28 pm by montestewart

tontoz wrote:A few weeks ago Beal tried to dunk on Josh Smith and got punked so badly he ended up missing a couple of games. Against OKC he tried to dunk on Ibaka. He definitely has a lot to learn as far as finishing in/near the paint.

It also seems like too often he will go up for a jumper when a defender is in a good position to block/contest it.

It's those types of shortcomings that I don't worry much about right now. He seems smart and capable of working, adapting, and learning, and those seem the type of things a 19-year-old rookie would still be learning about the NBA.
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Post#157 Re: Looking at the numbers . . .
Wed Jan 16, 2013 1:58 pm by tontoz

montestewart wrote:
tontoz wrote:A few weeks ago Beal tried to dunk on Josh Smith and got punked so badly he ended up missing a couple of games. Against OKC he tried to dunk on Ibaka. He definitely has a lot to learn as far as finishing in/near the paint.

It also seems like too often he will go up for a jumper when a defender is in a good position to block/contest it.

It's those types of shortcomings that I don't worry much about right now. He seems smart and capable of working, adapting, and learning, and those seem the type of things a 19-year-old rookie would still be learning about the NBA.



Agreed. Harden's 2 point percentage was pretty bad as a rookie. He only shot 47% at the rim compared to Beals current 59%.

Now that Beal seems to be past his rookie jitters i am hoping that he just makes his open jumpers at a good rate. These other things will probably take more time.
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Post#158 Re: Looking at the numbers . . .
Wed Jan 16, 2013 9:00 pm by GhostsOfGil

tontoz wrote:
montestewart wrote:
tontoz wrote:A few weeks ago Beal tried to dunk on Josh Smith and got punked so badly he ended up missing a couple of games. Against OKC he tried to dunk on Ibaka. He definitely has a lot to learn as far as finishing in/near the paint.

It also seems like too often he will go up for a jumper when a defender is in a good position to block/contest it.

It's those types of shortcomings that I don't worry much about right now. He seems smart and capable of working, adapting, and learning, and those seem the type of things a 19-year-old rookie would still be learning about the NBA.



Agreed. Harden's 2 point percentage was pretty bad as a rookie. He only shot 47% at the rim compared to Beals current 59%.

Now that Beal seems to be past his rookie jitters i am hoping that he just makes his open jumpers at a good rate. These other things will probably take more time.


The big reason for this was because Harden was blocked at the rim nearly 20% of the time... I had concernes about Beals shot blocked % until I saw that number.
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Post#159 Re: Looking at the numbers . . .
Fri Jan 18, 2013 1:35 am by hands11

http://espn.go.com/nba/statistics/playe ... fied/false

If they had only drafted NIkola like I wanted.

Not bad for a 22 year old in his second year. That would have been some nice center depth.
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Post#160 Re: Looking at the numbers . . .
Mon Jan 21, 2013 2:18 pm by Nivek

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