Looking at the numbers . . .

[Nivek]

So, I see the Wiretap story about Kwame Brown modeling his career on players who have had long careers -- which would include him at this point -- and I decided to check my spreadsheet to see what he's been doing this season. Half expected to see him at least "not bad" considering the article mentions his "solid productivity" at center for the Sixers and the complimentary quotes from Doug Collins.

What did I find: Kwame has a 63 in my system (100 = average; 60 = replacement level).

Nick Young is another one I've heard about playing well for Philly. He's at 68.

As long as I'm looking up former Wizards, here are a few others:

- Antawn Jamison -- 101
- Deshawn Stevenson -- 71
- Andray Blatche -- 139 (would lead the Wizards if he was playing this well in Washington)
- Brendan Haywood -- 77
- Kirk Hinrich -- 40
- Jerry Stackhouse -- 112
- Alonzo Gee -- 62
- Javale McGee -- 164
- Caron Butler -- 69
- Mike Miller -- 111
- Rashard Lewis -- 98

Anyone else you're interested in?

[Illuminaire]

Stephen Curry. Because I always want more reasons to hate EG.

[Illuminaire]

And from the small sample size department:

In games Nene has played, we have a -0.33 point differential. And it's actually +.66 if you only count regulation minutes. Basically, we are a .500 team when Nene plays.

He did make us quite a bit better last year too. Nene's overall effect on our team continues to surprise me. I'm never sure that he's putting out 100% effort, but that doesn't seem to keep him from being remarkably effective.

Which only means that with Nene and Wall playing, we probable will play somewhere around .500 ball and shoot ourselves out of a good pick. Huzzah! Futility in motion, that should be our tag line.

[GhostsOfGil]

Kev, how about some other "almost Wizards"

Aaron Afllalo
Jeff Green
Courtney Lee
CJ watson

[Zonkerbl]

- Javale McGee -- 164

Wait... whut?

[nate33]

- Javale McGee -- 164

Wait... whut?

McGee posted fantastic numbers in Washington as well. His stats are great. His impact stinks. He does lots of bad things that don't show up in the box score.

[fishercob]

I'd love to see what your system says for "OkaRiza Opportunity Cost" guys:

Scola, Brand, Haywood, Ryan Anderson, Kirilenko, Mayo, COllison, Jarrett Jack, Dorell Wright, Korver, Lou Williams, Hickson, Bayless, etc.

http://www.bulletsforever.com/2012/11/2 ... on-wizards

[hands11]

Updated the numbers over at the blog. http://broomonthewarpath.sportsblog.com ... ecord.html

Summary: It's ugly.

Only "rotation" players rating above average are Webster and Okafor -- and Okafor declined. Ariza and Crawford continue their slides. Vesely somehow got even worse (-3 to -16 -- recall that AVERAGE is 100).

In his playing time decisions, Wittman is stuck choosing between bad and worse. He could make "better" choices, but "better" in this context means marginally less bad. This team sucks.

I looks to me like one truly obvious move is to play Webster a lot more. There is no reason he shouldn't be starting and playing 34+ minutes a game. The other obvious no-brainer is to park Vesely all the way at the end of the bench. He shouldn't play a minute unless it's garbage time. I also agree with playing Martin some more, but I think it should come at the expense of Beal, not Crawford. As much as I hate Crawford, his ability to bail out the offense is more desperately needed now because we don't appear to have any offensive options other than Nene. It might mean that Beal gets benched for a while but I think he's a bit rattled anyhow. It might help him to watch the game from the sidelines for a little while.

So go like this:

PG Price/Livingston
SG Martin/Crawford
SF Webster/Ariza
PF Nene/Singleton
C Okafor/Seraphin

Our PF play is terrible.

Some combination those players should be the focus. I know it doesn't look like we are focusing a lot on the younger players but that changes once you put Wall in that group. Price and Martin are the two of that group that I would have on really short leash and I agree Beal needs to be used less in spot duty right now. Webster would get 30 + minutes a game between the SG and SF. I wouldn't give Martin the start but it could get a chance in the game in the middle.

Can't wait till Wall returns. That will help the rotations and the a lot. He brings a total different type of game then any of the PG they have now. His speed will really open things up.

What Randy really needs to get established is who he can have out there to close quarters and more importantly, 5 minutes and forward in the 4th.

PG Livingston/Crawford
SG Crawford/Webster
SF Webster/Ariza
PF Seraphin/Singleton
C Nene/Okafor

If he uses good combination of those players, they should look a lot better. And only Okafor is spot duty.
Wall, Singleton and Kevin is enough in regards to working in younger players. Beal and Ves can be brought along more slowly. Price is someone I would mostly use in the middle minutes. He is to up and down to count on right now.

He needs to shorten the rotation.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

And from the small sample size department:

In games Nene has played, we have a -0.33 point differential. And it's actually +.66 if you only count regulation minutes. Basically, we are a .500 team when Nene plays.

Let's say by some good fortune, Nene plays 60 of the next 69 games and starts at least 55. The Wizards will probably win 30 of those games, possibly more IMO. The Wizards should have had about 3 wins before their first win. With Nene back, I think order is restored to the team. With them starting poorly but not pointing fingers, I think this team will come back really tougher than most.

Who's to say that Wall won't play 50 games this season? If Wall is with Nene the Wizards might be closer to a .600 team. They could be 30-20 or so with him. If over the next 17 games or so without Wall, the Wizards win 8 games they would be 9-23 before Wall.

Washington could still end up 39-43 and make the playoffs. (It would take 38-31 the rest of the way.)

The improved defense, improved backups at PG, improvements by Singleton and I think in time Seraphin, improved depth, plus what I think is GOOD COACHING; can make this a tough team by the end of the season. All it would take is Nene to play 60-65 games and Wall to play 50.

[Illuminaire]

I'd love to see what your system says for "OkaRiza Opportunity Cost" guys:

Scola, Brand, Haywood, Ryan Anderson, Kirilenko, Mayo, COllison, Jarrett Jack, Dorell Wright, Korver, Lou Williams, Hickson, Bayless, etc.

http://www.bulletsforever.com/2012/11/2 ... on-wizards

That sounds like a fannnnnnntastic idea for Kevin's next blog post. Make it happen, bro!

[Illuminaire]

The improved defense, improved backups at PG, improvements by Singleton and I think in time Seraphin, improved depth, plus what I think is GOOD COACHING; can make this a tough team by the end of the season. All it would take is Nene to play 60-65 games and Wall to play 50.

Yep. And then if Beal and Wall both keep improving, that should offset the declining production of Nene/Okafor/Ariza over the next two years, possibly leading us to the lofty heights of 44-38 basketball, the 6-7th seed, and a first round out. That's probably enough for EG to keep his job through 2020.

I hate everything.

[Nivek]

- Javale McGee -- 164

Wait... whut?

McGee posted fantastic numbers in Washington as well. His stats are great. His impact stinks. He does lots of bad things that don't show up in the box score.

Through Tuesday's games, McGee is averaging (pace-adjusted per 40 minutes) 21.8 pts, 11.9 rebounds, and 3.8 blocks. He's been both efficient and high usage. That said, Nate's point about McGee's impact has been a fair one. His on/off impact so far this season hasn't been bad for Denver -- they're about the same whether he's on or off (which is progress for him). One potential warning sign -- their team defensive efg is worse when he plays. That's the way it's usually been with him.

This early in the season, I use a relatively simple defensive measure. As the season goes on, and the sample size increases, the measure gets better. If McGee ends up having the kind of defensive impact he's typically had during his career, his overall rating will drop.

[Nivek]

I like that OkaRiza opportunity costs idea. I'll post it on the blog with some analysis next week -- have other stuff that needs doing today. Here are the numbers from the guys listed, sorted by my rating:

Code: Select all

PLAYER          G       MPG     RTG
R.Andrsn        13      32.9    173
Kirilenko       13      36.4    164
LouWllms        12      23.7    153
JJ Hickson      13      29.1    139
OJ Mayo         15      34.6    134
K.Korver        12      29.8    131
D.Wright        15      23.1    121
L.Scola         15      27.5    120
D.Green         15      30.8    110
S.Curry         14      35.9    104
D.Collison      15      32.7    99
Crowder         14      19.0    96
Jack            14      24.6    85
Brand           14      21.8    80
CJ Watson       13      20.4    78
Afflalo         13      34.5    64
C.Lee           14      22.7    38
J.Green         14      21.9    25



[fishercob]

Good thing Orlando got Afflalo for Dwight Howard!

[nate33]

Hickson's play has surprised me. I wonder how long that will last.

[Nivek]

Hickson last season in SAC rated a 57. In 600 minutes with Portland: 138. What he's doing in Portland is a marked change in form. Still a young guy.

[hands11]

I have been arguing for line up and rotation changes and shortening the rotation. This crap Randy is doing is total suck and it isn't working. Bad staring line ups. Bad second line ups. To many changed line ups. What he is doing is making the sum total worst then the individual parts and confusing the crap out of his players.

We have enough games in the books to "look at some numbers"

The team struggle for continuity and points. If you want pts, lets look at eFG and TS and FG%. Also, lets get this down to 8 or so players who are ready and best suited to get it done. Randy's starting line up have been crap all year. Yeah, I know many here want to focus on the crap players but its a coaches job to do the best job he can with what he has. Randy isn't doing it so until he does, its hard to tell exactly how crappy or not this team is.

So what should he be doing instead.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/WAS/2013.html

I would set the bars for FG% for the starters at these min. and then look for the better defenders in that grouping. Once you see what meets the standards, line them up in rotations that works.

Min FG% shooting standards I am setting. I think they are pretty reasonable.

Guards have to have at least .400
SF at least .420
PF at least .450
Centers at least .500

By these standards evaluating Randy's starting line up
Price FG .354 eFG .438 TS% .461 - career back up
Beal FG .336 eFG .404 TS% .468 - 19 year old kid
Trevor A FG .350 eFG .390 TS% .437 - was good on a champ team a while ago
Okafor FG .404 eFG .404 TS% .450 - his teams always sucked.

So 4 of the starter fail this measure. Any wonder they suck on offense. But there are better options on this team and Randy isn't using them.

This is complete failure on Randys part. The Wizards bench as of the NY game ranked first in the league in scoring. Something is very wrong with what Randy is deciding. Now I know these are some of the defensive player so we can compare each against other in their position and find the more efficient scorers who can also defend. I would refer starters to be able to do both. Seems Randy is going with the idea of going with the defensive starting team and then bring in the better scorers to miss match with the other teams back ups. That might work with Wall was starting since he is a one man fast break, but it isn't working with Price, Beal, Trevor A, Kevin and Okafor. Beal is a kid and not ready. Kevin is the only true offensive player out there so he shoots every time he touches it. Trevor is a 3rd wheel forced to be a 2nd wheel. And Price and Okafor are back ups. So you are playing 4 on 5 mostly with 2 back ups starting. Pure Suck.

Who should the starters be ( feel free to use what I started as the template of stats to make your own line ups )

PG - Min FG % least .400
Livingston FG .483 eFG .483 TS% .520 with a Drtg 108 Ast % 16.3 TOV 16.3 3P% .000
Crawford FG .412 eFG .455 TS% .500 with a Drtg 110 Ast % 28.8 TOV 14.9 3P% .280
Price FG .354 eFG .438 TS% .461 with a Drtg 107 Ast % 30.6 TOV 13.9 3P% .328

This is only a temporary problem because once Wall returns he will clearly start. Livingston is the most mature established player. I have seem some good ball from Price so I am not totally hating on him. Price is showing some promise but he is not consistent nor effective enough and he doesn't even meet the min standard for FG%. Livingston has a higher TOV and lower Ast % and doesn't shoot the 3, but I have Webster starting with him so Web will shoot the 3 balls.

I would start Livingston and bring Price off the bench to start the game then use Price and Crawford interchangeably as needed as the back ups.

Livingston/Price/Crawford

SG - Min FG % least .400
Webster FG .457 eFG .571 TS% .652 with a Drtg 105 Ast % 9.4 3P% .410
Crawford FG .412 eFG .455 TS% .500 with a Drtg 110 Ast % 28.8 3P% .280
Martin FG .345 eFG .448 TS% .488 with a Drtg 103 Ast % 2.9 3P% .316
Beal FG .336 eFG .404 TS% .468 with a Drtg 107 Ast % 11.0 3P% .339

Webster is the best TS and eFG on the team. Start him already and play him max minutes (32-38min) between SG and SF. Sure with more minutes and more shots those numbers will likely come down some but he has proven he knows a good shot and he can convert. His Drty is 105 with is better then Beal 107 or Crawford 110. And Webster is mental mature enough to handle it. He has some fire and focus and acts as a leader and this team needs it. Start him with Livingston and bring in Crawford with Price. This starting role is not to big for Webster to handle. Stop pressing Beal into action so much. He doesn't have to be the man right now. He is a kid.

Webster/Crawford/Martin/Beal

SF Min FG % least .420
Webster FG .457 eFG .571 TS% .652 with a Drtg 105 Ast % 9.4 TRB % 9.3 3P% .410
Singleton FG .458 eFG .466 TS% .494 with a Drtg 102 Ast % 6.1 TRB % 12.4 3P% .125
Trevor A FG .350 eFG .390 TS% .437 with a Drtg 100 Ast % 12.8 TRB % 11.4 3P% .256

Again, Webster is the best scoring option here but the worst of them defending and besides, I have him at SG starting. Trevor A and Singleton are almost interchangeable defensively but given Singleton is playing well and the more efficient on offense. Plus he is younger with more upside. I would give him the nod and give him a chance to show he can hit the 3 ball better. Plus Trevor doesn't pass the min FG% of .420 Now maybe that is because Randy is starting him with a suck line up where he is 2nd option. Trevor A or Singleton. Try one then try the other.

Singleton/Trevor A/Webster

PF Min FG % least .450
Nene FG .517 eFG .517 TS% .595 with a Drtg 101 Ast % 11.4 TRB % 12.6 3P% .000 BLK % 0.9
Kevin FG .461 eFG .461 TS% .468 with a Drtg 106 Ast % 10.1 TRB % 12.7 3P% .000 BLK % 3.0
Singleton FG .458 eFG .466 TS% .494 with a Drtg 102 Ast % 6.1 TRB % 12.4 3P% .125 BLK % 0.7
Booker FG .453 eFG .453 TS% .461 with a Drtg 102 Ast % 10.8 TRB % 13.1 3P% .000 BLK % 1.9
Ves FG .433 eFG .433 TS% .406 with a Drtg 105 Ast % 8.6 TRB % 9.9 3P% .000 BLK % 1.9

All these players pass the min FG% but Nene is clearly the best. Nene at this point even with only playing 20 minutes a game needs to start. He doesn't have to be out there for long. But like NY does with Kurt Thomas, he needs to start. Bring him out after 5 minutes but he needs to be out there to set the tone and get get the offense working. Kevin is the first sub off the bench. Nene, should also be put back in to end the 2nd, start the 3rd and end the 4th. After 5 minutes to start the game, bring in Kevin for some longer burn and you spell him with Booker when he returns. Until then, you spell him with Singleton who would have started at SF but would have gotten rest on the bench when Trevor A came in for him. Ves should remain on the bench unless they need a tall player when Kevin is in foul trouble or until Wall returns and you have Ves out there with Nene.

Nene/Kevin/Singleton/Booker/Ves

C Min FG % least .500
Barron FG .526 eFG .526 TS% .517 with a Drtg 100 Ast % 6.6 TRB % 19.3 BLK % 1.4
Nene FG .517 eFG .517 TS% .595 with a Drtg 101 Ast % 11.4 TRB % 12.6 BLK % 0.9
Okafor FG .404 eFG .404 TS% .450 with a Drtg 101 Ast % 7.6 TRB % 15.4 BLK % 5.8
Ves FG .433 eFG .433 TS% .406 with a Drtg 105 Ast % 8.6 TRB % 9.9 BLK % 1.9

I know it is in limited minutes but Barron has played well in several games, preseason and regular and he is a more mobile vet then Okafor. Besides, Okafor doesn't pass the FG% test for a starter and he is to inconsistant as a player. The difference in defensive rating is 100 vs 101. Oak is a good defender and he can block shots but we need more option on offense. Nene would be best but I have him at PF with Kevin backing him up and he is only playing 20 minutes so he can't do both. Barron is an efficient scorer with a decent mid range and can even drive some. Nene will find him and he will help on the boards. He has better handles then Okafor. He is an efficient rebounder and his Drtg is 100. So start him. I don't care who gets paid what or who was drafted where. Then bring in Okafor as the sub and throw Ves a crumb here and there.

Barron/Okafor/Ves

So this is what I think they should do and why.

Livingston/Price/Crawford
Webster/Crawford/Martin/Beal
Singleton/Trevor A/Webster
Nene/Kevin/Singleton/Booker/Ves
Barron/Okafor/Ves

If you line them up like that, its really not a bad team. Those starters would gel quickly and the bench would know what to expect so they can step in as well.

Start
Livingston, Webster, Singleton, Nene, Barron ( only 2x 3 pt shooter but a vet PG who is an efficient scorer and can post up some. The team can driving and has a post game with interior passing. And it can defend)

Nene plays 5 minutes and comes out for Kevin who steps into a better situation.
Livingston, Webster, Singleton, Kevin, Barron ( same as above)

Singleton comes out next for Trevor A so Singleton is rested to come back in with Nene to end the half.
Livingston, Webster, Trevor A, Kevin, Barron ( still about the same as above )

Then you go to the second group.
Price, Crawford, Trevor A, Kevin, Okafor ( more 3 pts shooting but still driving and post game )

From there you can do some Crawford and Webster at the 1 and 2 if needed. Some Booker and Kevin.
But keep the rotations tight.

When you want to bring Beal in, do with with a more solid vet line up.
Livingston, Beal, Singleton, Nene, Barron or
Livingston, Beal, Webster, Nene, Okafor

Then go back to
Livingston, Webster, Singleton, Nene, Barron To close out the half.

I think this is a much more effective and balanced way to line them up.

[pancakes3]

You could have probably said that in 1/10 of the words, Hands.

"Our starting lineup's fg is crap. Shouldn't a team at least be able to field starters that don't shoot sub-40%? We should start Livingston, Webster, Singleton, Nene, and Barron, and have that squad close out the half. I think this is a much more effective and balanced way to line them up."

And you'd probably would have a lot more people read it and agree with the abridged version too. I agree except for the Barron part. Nene/Seraphin is a must and I wouldn't be opposed to Nene/Okafor even with fg% considered. Another question is if Livingston can handle starters minutes. Starting Webster is a no-brainer - and taking the pressure off Beal wouldn't hurt.

[nate33]

Eyes glazed over 3 sentences into Hands' post. Thanks pancakes for the synopsis.

[Nivek]

If I gather this correctly, the sentiment expressed seems to be that Wittman should decide his lineup based on FG%. If so, it's just one more nonsensical rabbit hole for the Wizards to go down -- right along with drafting "if only" players, bringing in "veterans" to change "the culture" and picking players based on a narrowly specific subset of skills.

The team does need to shoot better, but the best PLAYERS should be the ones in the lineup the most.