Looking at the numbers . . .

[AFM]

What's the deal with Price?

[nate33]

What's the deal with Price?

Same as Webster. He's an UFA and we have no Bird Rights or cap room. We can only offer him the MLE, the LLE, or the vet minimum. Presumably, Webster will be our priority and he cost most if not all of the MLE. So Price is gone unless he wants to play for the LLE ($1.75M) or the vet minimum (about $850K IIRC).

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Speaking of numbers, my brother was just in Vegas and alerted me that the Wizards are the best team in the NBA against the number. Someone ought to tell Ted. That's probably worth a blog post -- maybe even a banner (do they still have the Mystics' WNBA attendance championship cloth hanging from the rafters?)

The Wizards with better health and (no offense, I really like Randy Wittman) better coaching are a 50+ win team.

They're getting picked on by refs to the tune of (just a guess) about 2.5 points a game. I think they're a tough defensive team that if they had a marquee coach and one marquee player (besides THIS John Wall) would get calls. Washington plays tough teams tough despite their record. They only lose on the road to bad teams (particularly due to officiating at times).

fisher, I'm not into gambling but my gut says Washington consistently plays tough and they're predictably so in a way they are good to bet on against the number.

[nate33]

Speaking of numbers, my brother was just in Vegas and alerted me that the Wizards are the best team in the NBA against the number. Someone ought to tell Ted. That's probably worth a blog post -- maybe even a banner (do they still have the Mystics' WNBA attendance championship cloth hanging from the rafters?)

The Wizards with better health and (no offense, I really like Randy Wittman) better coaching are a 50+ win team.

They're getting picked on by refs to the tune of (just a guess) about 2.5 points a game. I think they're a tough defensive team that if they had a marquee coach and one marquee player (besides THIS John Wall) would get calls. Washington plays tough teams tough despite their record. They only lose on the road to bad teams (particularly due to officiating at times).

fisher, I'm not into gambling but my gut says Washington consistently plays tough and they're predictably so in a way they are good to bet on against the number.

For the most part, I don't feel like the Wizards have been jobbed by the refs, at least in comparison to other seasons. The Charlotte game was real bad, but I haven't noticed a trend. We lack superstars so we're always going to have a disadvantage when going against Lebron, Melo, Kobe, Paul, Griffin and Wade, but that's to be expected.

[Nivek]

Home-Away splits for the Wizards this season:

Code: Select all

STAT    HOME    AWAY
ortg    104.9   94.0
drtg    102.7   101.9
pace    91.7    92.4
efg     .493    .458
defg    .484    .472
orb%    .254    .237
drb%    .750    .738
tov%    .150    .145
dtov%   .153    .162
ftr     .205    .162
dftr    .203    .205


ftr = free throw rate, which is calculated by FTM/FGA

Summary: Wizards fall apart offensively on the road because they shoot worse and make fewer trips to the FT line. They compound their bad shooting with poor offensive rebounding.

[hands11]

Looking at Webster comps, they scream no more then about 4M/year.

But many of his comps are coming due for new contracts so who knows what the new number will be.

Also, some of them are older.

Webby is 26 but he still does have a injury history. Even right now he is battling a hernia which was mentioned in last nights game.

4M/year a year for 3 years seems like a solid offer. I think he is worth this extra because he is a leader.
If we could get him for 3.5M/year I would consider that good deal for the Wizards.

At least that is how it looks right now.

[Nivek]

Latest update over at the blog. Weekly PPA update. Plus a look at the silly "9th place goal."

[Zonkerbl]

Latest update over at the blog. Weekly PPA update. Plus a look at the silly "9th place goal."

Hm. Nine players above replacement level. I guess that's ok.

So we have five players at 100 or higher. 100 is average overall, right, not just the average among starters?

So, to see where your team stands overall, you want PPA weighted by total minutes played. Calculating it that way, 100 would be an average team. Higher than 100 gets you over .500 and a good chance at the playoffs, depending on which conference your in. Ours would be 94.8 since the start of the season. That includes the games before Wall came back where we sucked, sucked, sucked. And makes intuitive sense since we're finishing up around 10th in the East.

Can't do this calculation for the games since Wall came back without knowing games played and average minutes for just that subset. But the average PPA of the starting five of Okafor, Nene, Webster, Beal, and Wall, weighted by average playing time, is 121.6. Would be lower once you factor in the minutes played by lousy players. Yeah, would be interesting to see where that puts us - fourth or fifth in the east, I bet.

Would you know off the top of your head where we rank offensively and defensively since Wall came back?

[Nivek]

Since Wall returned (41 games), the Wizards ortg is 104.0 and their drtg is 101.3. Those numbers over the full season would have them ranked 22nd on offense and 3rd on defense. That differential translates to 48-49 wins over an 82-game schedule. They'd be contending for 4th or 5th in the East if they'd played like this all season.

[Nivek]

Final Wizards PPA numbers for the Wizards are up at the blog.

Wizards narrowly avoid placing 3 among the league's 10 least productive players (Singleton was 11th).

Started two lists at the blog -- goals they failed to reach and genuine positives.

[nate33]

For what it's worth, since Wall's return on January 12th, the team ranked 21st on offense with an ORtg of 104. Their defense was 5th with a DRtg of 102.7. Their 1.3 point differential would have ranked them as the 11th best team in the league, tied with Atlanta.

Some other oddities:

* The Wizards managed to post a 14-16 record against the West, but only a 15-37 record against the East.

* The Wizards were blown out by 10 or more points only 17 times. Only 10 teams were blown out on fewer occasions. There were 12 teams with better records than us that were blown out more often than us.

* We were a combined 0-9 against 3 of the teams just below us in the standings: Detroit, Sacramento and Cleveland. If we did our job against those teams and went, say, 6-3, we would have been within 2 games of Milwaukee down the stretch and may elected not to tank against Philly, Brooklyn and Chicago.

* We beat every playoff team at least once except Boston, Golden State, and San Antonio.

[penbeast0]

Whatifsports.com numbers for 2012-2013 just came out and I started playing with them last night. Every build I try seems to come up the same inside . . . Bosh, Anthony Davis, and one of the Lopez brothers. Surprised me a bit.

[Nivek]

Whatifsports.com numbers for 2012-2013 just came out and I started playing with them last night. Every build I try seems to come up the same inside . . . Bosh, Anthony Davis, and one of the Lopez brothers. Surprised me a bit.

Build?

[penbeast0]

Creating fantasy teams using the 2013 player stats for free 10 game exhibition leagues to test out different strengths and weaknesses . . . I waste a lot more time doing this than I probably should.

[Nivek]

Over at the blog today, I have similarity scores up for Okafor and Nene.

Nene looks like a throwback player in his comps. Only similar from the 2000s was Shareef Abdur-Rahim (at age 29). Anyone remember Mickey Johnson from the 70s and 80s? Ruz? He shows up 3 times as a similar to Nene.

The post-injury Bill Walton in San Diego (age 31) shows up as a comp for Okafor.

[penbeast0]

Mickey Johnson? May have had similar stats but got them differently. Mickey's nickname was "Rubber Bank Man," great hops with average skills at best; no real go to post move but good movement.