Looking at the numbers . . .

[mhd]

There are a few Webster like players available that should lower the market rate like Mike Dunleavy and Reddick also as FAs. The fact that Webster can play both SF and SG is a plus.

[DCZards]

The fact that Webster is a personable team leader is a plus as well.

[nate33]

Since January 1st (the day Beal transformed from an awful shooter to an awesome one), the Wizards have shot .411 from 3-point range. That leads the league by a country mile. The next highest team, the Warriors, are at .396 and everyone else is below .390. No team has shot that well since the 2009-2010 season.

Since January 1st, Beal is shooting .500 from 3 on 4.2 attempts per game; Webster is shooting .474 on 5.2 attempts per game; and Ariza is shooting .369 on 3.8 attempts per game. Webster's and Beal's numbers are so ridiculously insane that it's hard to believe it's actually happening. In the history of the league, only 4 players have ever shot .470 or better with at least 4.0 attempts per game, and nobody has exceeded .480. We've got two players exceeding .470, with Beal at an unprecedented .500. (Of course, they've only done it over a 37 game stretch, not the entire season. A few other players have probably managed it over 37 games.)

[GhostsOfGil]

Since January 1st (the day Beal transformed from an awful shooter to an awesome one), the Wizards have shot .411 from 3-point range. That leads the league by a country mile. The next highest team, the Warriors, are at .396 and everyone else is below .390. No team has shot that well since the 2009-2010 season.

Since January 1st, Beal is shooting .500 from 3 on 4.2 attempts per game; Webster is shooting .474 on 5.2 attempts per game; and Ariza is shooting .369 on 3.8 attempts per game. Webster's and Beal's numbers are so ridiculously insane that it's hard to believe it's actually happening. In the history of the league, only 4 players have ever shot .470 or better with at least 4.0 attempts per game, and nobody has exceeded .480. We've got two players exceeding .470, with Beal at an unprecedented .500. (Of course, they've only done it over a 37 game stretch, not the entire season. A few other players have probably managed it over 37 games.)

I posted something similar to this last night on the Rookie thread. The only person I found that was as similarly impressive is Stephen Curry. Last season he attempted 4.7 threes and hit them at a .455 rate. He only played 26 games however.

Also just saw that he's currently averaging 7.2 attempts on .450 shooting

[Nivek]

Weekly update over at the blog.

Wall's PPA over the past 5 games: 308. For the season, he's gone from 92 at the last update to 119. That's a helluva surge.

[Ruzious]

There are a few Webster like players available that should lower the market rate like Mike Dunleavy and Reddick also as FAs. The fact that Webster can play both SF and SG is a plus.

Unfortunately, I think Milw is going to overpay for Redick. Word is that he and the Bucks may agree to a multi year deal at 8 mil per year. Dunleavy is an older player, so Webster should get more than him.

[nate33]

There are a few Webster like players available that should lower the market rate like Mike Dunleavy and Reddick also as FAs. The fact that Webster can play both SF and SG is a plus.

Unfortunately, I think Milw is going to overpay for Redick. Word is that he and the Bucks may agree to a multi year deal at 8 mil per year. Dunleavy is an older player, so Webster should get more than him.

Yeah, they almost have to resign him to justify the trade. Fortunately, he's a RFA so they may be able to keep his price down by broadcasting to the league that they intend to match any offer (and thereby scare everyone else out of offering a contract at all)>

[Dat2U]

I'm okay with Webster getting either Brandon Rush or Danny Green money at this point. But I wouldn't go beyond 3 yrs or $12 million. I can see that 3 yr deal with a player option on the 3rd. He's been great for us. But he's still replaceable. I wouldn't be interested in a full MLE deal because there are similar and cheaper fits out there and we have other needs to fill this offseason. Basically looking at the numbers, Martell is pretty much the dark-skinned version of Kyle Korver. Who's also a FA by the way.

Mike Dunleavy may not bring the defense but offensively he's extremely versatile and a good shooter. Don't forget Chase Budinger although he might be overpriced because of his youth.

Then you have credible backup options like Matt Barnes or Marvin Williams.

So I don't think losing Martell would be a momentum stopper. The key is the development of Wall and Beal. Finding a complementary shooter at the 3 isn't that hard. We found Martell off the scrap heap last offseason. Addressing the 4/5 positions for the future & a finding a 3rd guard behind Wall & Beal are the bigger issues to address.

[fishercob]

I'm okay with Webster getting either Brandon Rush or Danny Green money at this point. But I wouldn't go beyond 3 yrs or $12 million. I can see that 3 yr deal with a player option on the 3rd. He's been great for us. But he's still replaceable. I wouldn't be interested in a full MLE deal because there are similar and cheaper fits out there and we have other needs to fill this offseason. Basically looking at the numbers, Martell is pretty much the dark-skinned version of Kyle Korver. Who's also a FA by the way.

Mike Dunleavy may not bring the defense but offensively he's extremely versatile and a good shooter. Don't forget Chase Budinger although he might be overpriced because of his youth.

Then you have credible backup options like Matt Barnes or Marvin Williams.

So I don't think losing Martell would be a momentum stopper. The key is the development of Wall and Beal. Finding a complementary shooter at the 3 isn't that hard. We found Martell off the scrap heap last offseason. Addressing the 4/5 positions for the future & a finding a 3rd guard behind Wall & Beal are the bigger issues to address.

Lots in here I agree with and Green/Rush money seems right. Green would appear to have taken a bit less to stay in SA; we'll see how much Webster values the right situation or if his "it's a business comment" means he's going to take whomever offers him the most money.

And while I agree that he's "replaceable" and heed NIvek's caution about the variability of year-to-year shooting, I also think that letting him walk and replacing him with one of the guys you mention carries its own set of risks. To your point about Wall's and Beal's development, I think they stand to benefit from stability as opposed to a revolving door of scrap heap FA shooters. Webster also appears to be a great leader and locker room guy -- much more than one would expect from a guy on a one-year deal.

I hope they can get the money right and make a commitment to Webster. He makes sense for this team at this stage of development. At the same time, if someone came along and offered the full MLE (4/$20M, right?) we're probably best off letting him go. Given what the market will look like, I think it's unlikely that someone offers money that big.

[nate33]

I'm okay with Webster getting either Brandon Rush or Danny Green money at this point. But I wouldn't go beyond 3 yrs or $12 million. I can see that 3 yr deal with a player option on the 3rd. He's been great for us. But he's still replaceable. I wouldn't be interested in a full MLE deal because there are similar and cheaper fits out there and we have other needs to fill this offseason. Basically looking at the numbers, Martell is pretty much the dark-skinned version of Kyle Korver. Who's also a FA by the way.

Good call on the Kyle Korver comparison. Their numbers are practically identical. Of course, I would be remiss if I failed to point out that Korver has been paid $5M a year for each of the last 4 years. Maybe prices will go down under the new CBA. Maybe not.

It's also worth noting that, Webster is 26 and Korver is 31. Webster could get a bit better. Korver is sure to get worse.

I'd happily pay Webster $4M a year and that would be my opening offer. But if push came to shove and I ended up choosing between paying Webster $5M a year versus paying Korver, Buddinger or Dunleavy $4M a year, I'd go ahead and resign Webster. I just don't think that $1M a year is a huge issue when we're talking about a starter. I'd pay the man and then look to save money in other ways like cutting Vesely.

[tontoz]

What is the MLE now anyway?

At this point i wouldn't mind overpaying slightly for Webster. I think there is something to be said for the chemistry he has here.

[Nivek]

The non-luxury tax payer MLE is $5.0 million for this year. It rises a bit each year going forward. Next season, it'll be $5.15 million. I'd be willing to pay Webster on a 3-year MLE contract. Depending on what other moves the team is able to make.

Man, I wish they'd done something to add good young players this past offseason instead of making that OkAriza deal.

[DCZards]

And while I agree that he's "replaceable" and heed NIvek's caution about the variability of year-to-year shooting, I also think that letting him walk and replacing him with one of the guys you mention carries its own set of risks. To your point about Wall's and Beal's development, I think they stand to benefit from stability as opposed to a revolving door of scrap heap FA shooters. Webster also appears to be a great leader and locker room guy -- much more than one would expect from a guy on a one-year deal.

Stability, leadership, chemistry. Those things have a value of their own. I agree that we need to be careful about ignoring them because we think we can save a few dollars by letting Webster walk and signing a so-called comparable free agent.

It will be interesting to see what offers Webster might get from other teams, but I'd expect him get an offer of at least 3 yrs, $15 mil.

[fishercob]

Yeah, JAR -- I can understand your reasoning. I don't view Webster as a "must keep" player. Only guy in that category (for me) is Beal. But, I'd be willing to give Webster a deal similar to what Danny Green got.

That would be nice, but I think (and fear) his price is going to be a bit higher.

Here's a comparison of Webster this year versus Brandon Rush and Danny Green of last year. I picked them because both were sharpshooting 3&D guard/forwards last year who got new contracts last summer.

The numbers are surprisingly similar. The scoring rate and 3-point shooting is practically identical. Rush and Green rebound a bit better, Webster has a slightly higher assist percentage. Rush and Green posted a higher PER than Webster, mostly thanks to better numbers in steals and blocks. Green was definitely notable for being a good defender, I don't recall if Rush was considered to be anything better than an average defender.

Overall, I'd say Rush and Green had better seasons than Webster. Webster may get bonus points for being an inch taller though. Rush was given a 2-year contract worth $4M a year. Green was given a 3-year contract worth $3.75M a year. That's a lot less than what those guys probably would have gotten 2 summers ago under the old CBA. Hopefully, it's an indication of what the market will be like for these types of players going forward.

I'd happily pay Webster a salary in that range. I'd go up to $4.5M a year without concern.

Thanks for posting the comparison. A couple of other notes: Webster plays the most minutes (though Green's have increased to 27 this yr). Webster's ORtg was the highest by a good margin. Also, Rush's team was terrible defensively. That probably has more to do with the bigs, but Webster has at least demonstrated he can play starter minutes on an very good defensive team. Once Rush left Indy, they went from being average/good defensively to elite. I'm not implying direction causation, but I imagine that would come in a negotiation too.

[DCZards]

Man, I wish they'd done something to add good young players this past offseason instead of making that OkAriza deal.

It looks to me like the Zards did add a good young players last offseason and pretty cheaply at this point. I'd put Webster and maybe even Temple and Price in that category.

[tontoz]

The non-luxury tax payer MLE is $5.0 million for this year. It rises a bit each year going forward. Next season, it'll be $5.15 million. I'd be willing to pay Webster on a 3-year MLE contract. Depending on what other moves the team is able to make.

Man, I wish they'd done something to add good young players this past offseason instead of making that OkAriza deal.

Thanks. I guess that prevents EG from getting too carried away overpaying to keep him.

[fishercob]

Man, I wish they'd done something to add good young players this past offseason instead of making that OkAriza deal.

It looks to me like the Zards did add a good young players last offseason and pretty cheaply at this point. I'd put Webster and maybe even Temple and Price in that category.

Please -- PLEASE -- can we not rehash this discussion?

[Nivek]

Man, I wish they'd done something to add good young players this past offseason instead of making that OkAriza deal.

It looks to me like the Zards did add a good young players last offseason and pretty cheaply at this point. I'd put Webster and maybe even Temple and Price in that category.

Temple is not a good player.

Price is exactly what I anticipated -- a competent backup. He's had some stretches where he played well, but he's still solidly below average. I like him, but I wouldn't pay him more than the minimum.

Webster is the only youngish (26 isn't exactly young in NBA years -- more like mid-life) find of the offseason. He's a guy I'd like to keep around, but it has to be at the right price. I would have given Green an MLE-type contract, so I'd have no problem doing the same for Webster.

I was referring more to the PF/C position where they have Okafor and Nene and nothing else. Well, Booker is rounding into form, and he's not bad. I'd feel better about the team's future if they were having this kind of run with Ryan Anderson (for example) and Nene up front instead of a couple 30 year olds. Ah well, I'll enjoy the team winning some games and competing while it lasts.

Good thing about basketball players: they're always making more.

[fishercob]

Speaking of numbers, my brother was just in Vegas and alerted me that the Wizards are the best team in the NBA against the number. Someone ought to tell Ted. That's probably worth a blog post -- maybe even a banner (do they still have the Mystics' WNBA attendance championship cloth hanging from the rafters?)

[Ruzious]

I'm okay with Webster getting either Brandon Rush or Danny Green money at this point. But I wouldn't go beyond 3 yrs or $12 million. I can see that 3 yr deal with a player option on the 3rd. He's been great for us. But he's still replaceable. I wouldn't be interested in a full MLE deal because there are similar and cheaper fits out there and we have other needs to fill this offseason. Basically looking at the numbers, Martell is pretty much the dark-skinned version of Kyle Korver. Who's also a FA by the way.

Good call on the Kyle Korver comparison. Their numbers are practically identical. Of course, I would be remiss if I failed to point out that Korver has been paid $5M a year for each of the last 4 years. Maybe prices will go down under the new CBA. Maybe not.

It's also worth noting that, Webster is 26 and Korver is 31. Webster could get a bit better. Korver is sure to get worse.

I'd happily pay Webster $4M a year and that would be my opening offer. But if push came to shove and I ended up choosing between paying Webster $5M a year versus paying Korver, Buddinger or Dunleavy $4M a year, I'd go ahead and resign Webster. I just don't think that $1M a year is a huge issue when we're talking about a starter. I'd pay the man and then look to save money in other ways like cutting Vesely.

Korver is having his best year, and he just turned 32. I wonder if it's the corner 3 effect? I've always been a Buddinger fan. I think Minny really wants to see what he can do when healthy for them, but I wouldn't mind getting him instead of Webster. Dorell Wright is another player in the Webster mold that I could see them settle for, but I'd rather not settle in that case.