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Looking at the numbers . . .

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Post#121 Re: Looking at the numbers . . .
Tue Dec 18, 2012 3:43 pm by Zonkerbl

So when Sacto finally turned things around, it was by acquiring Webber in a trade, Bibby in a trade, and Divac as a FA pickup. They also had that kid Christie who was a good defender, I think they drafted him. But they didn't draft their big three. It's just having Webber and Divac, who are both great passers, on the floor at the same time turned out to be a brilliant idea.

Really goes against the grain, doesn't it? Lakers and Celts rivalry was based on Magic and Bird, both playing for the teams that drafted them. Detroit won two with Isaiah Thomas, who they drafted. Houston won two 'ships with Hakeem who they drafted. San Antone has Duncan and Parker and Ginobili, all picked up in the draft. OKC has Durant and Westbrook. So it really shows what a crazy thing they had going in Sacto. Almost as weird as what Detroit did with all our castoffs. And really shows how important it is that your #1 pick turn into an all-world superstar.

Now I'm really, really, really depressed. I'm gonna go lie down and cry now.
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Post#122 Re: Looking at the numbers . . .
Tue Dec 18, 2012 3:58 pm by montestewart

It doesn't have to be an overall #1 (Jordan, Bryant, Nash, Wade, Nowitzki), but usually someone has to turn into an all-world superstar. Who's our world beater?
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Post#123 Re: Looking at the numbers . . .
Tue Dec 18, 2012 4:06 pm by Nivek

Zonkerbl wrote:So when Sacto finally turned things around, it was by acquiring Webber in a trade, Bibby in a trade, and Divac as a FA pickup. They also had that kid Christie who was a good defender, I think they drafted him. But they didn't draft their big three. It's just having Webber and Divac, who are both great passers, on the floor at the same time turned out to be a brilliant idea.

Really goes against the grain, doesn't it? Lakers and Celts rivalry was based on Magic and Bird, both playing for the teams that drafted them. Detroit won two with Isaiah Thomas, who they drafted. Houston won two 'ships with Hakeem who they drafted. San Antone has Duncan and Parker and Ginobili, all picked up in the draft. OKC has Durant and Westbrook. So it really shows what a crazy thing they had going in Sacto. Almost as weird as what Detroit did with all our castoffs. And really shows how important it is that your #1 pick turn into an all-world superstar.

Now I'm really, really, really depressed. I'm gonna go lie down and cry now.


Nope, didn't draft Christie. Christie was well-traveled by the time he got to the Kings -- stints with the Lakers, Knicks and Toronto. He was 30 years old when the Kings traded for him from Toronto (for Cuttino Mobley and Michael Bradley).

I think what it shows is that smart decision-making can build a good team in ways other than just lucking out in the draft.
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Post#124 Re: Looking at the numbers . . .
Tue Dec 18, 2012 4:28 pm by closg00

Don't know if this has already been posted, but it's a good read.
http://dc.sbnation.com/2012/12/17/37763 ... statistics
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Post#125 Re: Looking at the numbers . . .
Wed Dec 19, 2012 2:46 pm by tontoz

The Wizards current offensive efficiency of 93.2 is 4.1 points lower than the team in 29th place. Getting close to last years 92.3 mark by the Bobcats.
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Post#126 Re: Looking at the numbers . . .
Fri Jan 4, 2013 9:41 am by tontoz

The Wizards are currently 11th in defensive efficiency and 10th in defensive rebounding rate. Too bad their offense is a train wreck.

I think the defensive rating is especially impressive given how many fast break opportunities the opposing teams get off the Wizards missed shots.
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Post#127 Re: Looking at the numbers . . .
Fri Jan 4, 2013 10:17 am by Nivek

I've had an update on the individual stats for the past couple days waiting for the techno guys to fix a problem with the blog. Hopefully they'll have things repaired today. The basic information is what it has been -- they have a lot of unproductive players. Crawford is back up to league average, which is cause for celebration on this team. Four players rate average or better: Nene, Okafor, Crawford and Ariza.

Of their 6 players on rookie contracts, two rate above my current replacement level (hypothetical 10th man for the worst team) -- Crawford and Booker. I've been researching whether that replacement level might be too high. My preliminary findings suggest that a hypothetical 11th man might make more sense. Even at that more "lenient" replacement level, three of their six on rookie contracts would remain below replacement level (Singleton, Seraphin and Vesely).
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Post#128 Re: Looking at the numbers . . .
Fri Jan 4, 2013 10:59 am by LyricalRico

Nivek wrote:I've had an update on the individual stats for the past couple days waiting for the techno guys to fix a problem with the blog. Hopefully they'll have things repaired today. The basic information is what it has been -- they have a lot of unproductive players. Crawford is back up to league average, which is cause for celebration on this team. Four players rate average or better: Nene, Okafor, Crawford and Ariza.

Of their 6 players on rookie contracts, two rate above my current replacement level (hypothetical 10th man for the worst team) -- Crawford and Booker. I've been researching whether that replacement level might be too high. My preliminary findings suggest that a hypothetical 11th man might make more sense. Even at that more "lenient" replacement level, three of their six on rookie contracts would remain below replacement level (Singleton, Seraphin and Vesely).


So you're saying that once Wall returns, Ernie would have successfully put together a somewhat above average 7 man rotation?

Okafor
Nene/Booker
Ariza
Crawford/Beal
Wall

Add in another high lottery pick (which clearly was the plan all along) and we'll be set. Take that, doubters! :D
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Post#129 Re: Looking at the numbers . . .
Fri Jan 4, 2013 12:31 pm by Zonkerbl

Hooray mediocrity!
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Post#130 Re: Looking at the numbers . . .
Fri Jan 4, 2013 12:36 pm by tontoz

Zonkerbl wrote:Hooray mediocrity!



That gave me a flashback to those old Red Stripe commercials.
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Post#131 Re: Looking at the numbers . . .
Fri Jan 4, 2013 2:26 pm by Nivek

Posted the article. Read it if you're willing to be depressed. :)
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Post#132 Re: Looking at the numbers . . .
Fri Jan 4, 2013 2:38 pm by hands11

LyricalRico wrote:
Nivek wrote:I've had an update on the individual stats for the past couple days waiting for the techno guys to fix a problem with the blog. Hopefully they'll have things repaired today. The basic information is what it has been -- they have a lot of unproductive players. Crawford is back up to league average, which is cause for celebration on this team. Four players rate average or better: Nene, Okafor, Crawford and Ariza.

Of their 6 players on rookie contracts, two rate above my current replacement level (hypothetical 10th man for the worst team) -- Crawford and Booker. I've been researching whether that replacement level might be too high. My preliminary findings suggest that a hypothetical 11th man might make more sense. Even at that more "lenient" replacement level, three of their six on rookie contracts would remain below replacement level (Singleton, Seraphin and Vesely).


So you're saying that once Wall returns, Ernie would have successfully put together a somewhat above average 7 man rotation?

Okafor/Kevin
Nene/Booker/Singleton
Ariza/Webster
Crawford/Beal
Wall/Price/Temple

Add in another high lottery pick (which clearly was the plan all along) and we'll be set. Take that, doubters! :D


And per my recent post in the Wall thread, that doesn't take into account that a Wall type PG is exactly what the team is missing so I fully expect players numbers to go up once Wall returns. Look how much better Okafor is already looking just by being able to start with Nene next to him. 4 double doubles in 6 games.

I also think Webster's numbers are going to go up as the back up SF getting open corner 3 looks. And Temple/Price is a decent pair of back up PGs. Price fast to cover quicker players. Temple long for taller players.

And it should help Beal who may already be turning the corner even without Wall.

Healthy, I expect they will look a lot better. Maybe even Ves.

Scary times for the die hard Ted/EG haters. I mean. What if this actually works.
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Post#133 Re: Looking at the numbers . . .
Fri Jan 4, 2013 3:15 pm by nate33

hands11 wrote:And per my recent post in the Wall thread, that doesn't take into account that a Wall type PG is exactly what the team is missing so I fully expect players numbers to go up once Wall returns. Look how much better Okafor is already looking just by being able to start with Nene next to him. 4 double doubles in 6 games.

I also think Webster's numbers are going to go up as the back up SF getting open corner 3 looks. And Temple/Price is a decent pair of back up PGs. Price fast to cover quicker players. Temple long for taller players.

And it should help Beal who may already be turning the corner even without Wall.

Healthy, I expect they will look a lot better. Maybe even Ves.

Scary times for the die hard Ted/EG haters. I mean. What if this actually works.

There is scant evidence to suggest that Wall makes his teammates that much better. Two years ago, the team was 1.5 points per 100 possessions worse on offense when Wall was on the floor. Last year, they were 2.5 points per 100 possessions better. And I suspect nearly all of that was thanks to Wall's ability to successfully execute one or two 1-man fast breaks per game.

The team almost surely will improve when Wall returns because Wall is a much better player than Price or Mack, but I have doubts as to whether he will help to dramatically boost the production of his teammates. Or rather, Wall must improve significantly over last year if he expects to boost the production of his teammates.

The one reason I have hope is that last year's team was so poorly constructed to play alongside Wall. None among McGee, Vesely, Blatche, Seraphin or Singleton could hit an outside shot if their lives depended on it, and even Jordan Crawford was pretty terrible as a catch-and-shoot player. The only time the floor was well spaced for Wall was when we went in a small ball configuration with Young or Martin at SF, and even those lineups had question marks with the shooting from our bigs. This year, the team at least appears to be built to play with Wall. Nene and Okafor will set better picks than McGee; Nene, Seraphin and Booker can hit a midrange jumper from the PF spot; Webster is a quality catch-and-shoot player at SF; Ariza is a passable shooter, at least he's better than Singleton; and Crawford is improved as a catch-and-shoot player. We are by no means stocked with good shooters, but we should be better than last year.

It would be nice to have James Singleton back.
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Post#134 Re: Looking at the numbers . . .
Fri Jan 4, 2013 3:25 pm by Nivek

I agree nate. If Wall comes back making jumpers, it might help his teammates because it'll change how teams have to defend him. Until then, Wall's all-around game will make the Wizards better because, as you point out, he's better than the guys they currently have running the point.
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Post#135 Re: Looking at the numbers . . .
Fri Jan 4, 2013 3:27 pm by tontoz

hands11 wrote:Scary times for the die hard Ted/EG haters. I mean. What if this actually works.



If it actually works then they will be a mediocre team (instead of the worst in the league) with no cap space.
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Post#136 Re: Looking at the numbers . . .
Fri Jan 4, 2013 3:42 pm by Nivek

What if this works?

What does that even mean?

"It's" already failed. If the Wizards play .500 ball the rest of the way, they'd finish with 30 wins. If they win 60% of their remaining games (31-21) they'd finish 35-47. They'd need to go 37-15 (.711) to reach .500 this season.

I thought they could win 37 games this season. They'd have to go 33-19 (.634) to reach that "lofty" goal.
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Post#137 Re: Looking at the numbers . . .
Fri Jan 4, 2013 3:58 pm by Nivek

Just to give a sense for the productivity of the Wizards roster, here's where the players rank among the entire league using my stat (PPA) (minimum 180 minutes):

36. Nene
107. Okafor
129. Crawford
137. Ariza
202. Price
206. Booker
207. Webster
262. Martin
268. Beal
302. Livingston
308. Singleton
313. Seraphin
331. Vesely

Through my last stat update (Wednesday, I think), there were 338 players with at least 180 minutes.

Dead last: former Wizard Jared Jeffries. In 198 minutes, his PPA is -49.
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Post#138 Re: Looking at the numbers . . .
Fri Jan 4, 2013 4:34 pm by montestewart

Nivek wrote:Just to give a sense for the productivity of the Wizards roster, here's where the players rank among the entire league using my stat (PPA) (minimum 180 minutes):

36. Nene
107. Okafor
129. Crawford
137. Ariza
202. Price
206. Booker
207. Webster
262. Martin
268. Beal
302. Livingston
308. Singleton
313. Seraphin
331. Vesely

Through my last stat update (Wednesday, I think), there were 338 players with at least 180 minutes.

Dead last: former Wizard Jared Jeffries. In 198 minutes, his PPA is -49.

On the plus side, these numbers illustrate the stiff competition at the end of the bench.
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Post#139 Re: Looking at the numbers . . .
Tue Jan 8, 2013 6:47 pm by Nivek

My latest numbers update.

Vesely out of negative territory. Beal inching up -- it's going to take a longer stretch of good play to dramatically change his rating because he's played so may minutes.
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Post#140 Re: Looking at the numbers . . .
Tue Jan 8, 2013 8:52 pm by hands11

nate33 wrote:
hands11 wrote:And per my recent post in the Wall thread, that doesn't take into account that a Wall type PG is exactly what the team is missing so I fully expect players numbers to go up once Wall returns. Look how much better Okafor is already looking just by being able to start with Nene next to him. 4 double doubles in 6 games.

I also think Webster's numbers are going to go up as the back up SF getting open corner 3 looks. And Temple/Price is a decent pair of back up PGs. Price fast to cover quicker players. Temple long for taller players.

And it should help Beal who may already be turning the corner even without Wall.

Healthy, I expect they will look a lot better. Maybe even Ves.

Scary times for the die hard Ted/EG haters. I mean. What if this actually works.

There is scant evidence to suggest that Wall makes his teammates that much better. Two years ago, the team was 1.5 points per 100 possessions worse on offense when Wall was on the floor. Last year, they were 2.5 points per 100 possessions better. And I suspect nearly all of that was thanks to Wall's ability to successfully execute one or two 1-man fast breaks per game.

The team almost surely will improve when Wall returns because Wall is a much better player than Price or Mack, but I have doubts as to whether he will help to dramatically boost the production of his teammates. Or rather, Wall must improve significantly over last year if he expects to boost the production of his teammates.

The one reason I have hope is that last year's team was so poorly constructed to play alongside Wall. None among McGee, Vesely, Blatche, Seraphin or Singleton could hit an outside shot if their lives depended on it, and even Jordan Crawford was pretty terrible as a catch-and-shoot player. The only time the floor was well spaced for Wall was when we went in a small ball configuration with Young or Martin at SF, and even those lineups had question marks with the shooting from our bigs. This year, the team at least appears to be built to play with Wall. Nene and Okafor will set better picks than McGee; Nene, Seraphin and Booker can hit a midrange jumper from the PF spot; Webster is a quality catch-and-shoot player at SF; Ariza is a passable shooter, at least he's better than Singleton; and Crawford is improved as a catch-and-shoot player. We are by no means stocked with good shooters, but we should be better than last year.

It would be nice to have James Singleton back.


We are really close in agreeing on most points except for one thing, I don't think Wall must improve significantly over last year to help. His 5-6 FTA a game along with his assists and one man fast break would do it. All he really needs to do is remember how he learned to change pace and pick when to fast break to limit turnovers. Hopefully all the games he has watch and a year of maturity helps him there.

I think that alone would do it. Now if he can actually shoot better and he learned a post game, which he said he worked on, then I think all the better. That's going to help them close out games because then defenders have to go over picks and that will move the defense and open more lanes for him to pass if needed.

I know it isn't a popular position on this board because a lot of people hate the moves they made and want to blow it up and fire EG, but I can see how this could actually all come together with everyone healthy. The pieces actually kind of compliment each other. Defense everywhere. Runners for Wall. Webster as a corner 3 shooter. Good rebounding and two post options in Nene and Kevin for half court. Now if Beal is going to ball like he has been lately and hit the 3 ball like that. That is the real piece that brings it all together. Wall can just do what he mostly did last year but a little smarter. Beal is the Deal changer. And he is only 19. How sweet is that.
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