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Looking at the numbers . . .

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Re: Looking at the numbers . . . 

Post#151 » by nate33 » Wed Jan 16, 2013 5:19 pm

Nivek wrote:
nate33 wrote:
Nivek wrote:Comprehensive rookie ratings over at the blog.

Drummond is atop the list. Beal ranks 16th -- right at average for this class of rookies (minimum 200 total minutes). Needs to continue his recent improvement.

I'm a big believer in per-minute numbers, but only up to a point. Guys that are playing 15 minutes per game or fewer really get their numbers skewed because they are so often playing against backups and/or playing only in garbage time. I would pretty much disregard any of these rookies playing 16 minutes or less.


Already accounted for in PPA. The numbers include an adjustment based on that Starter% term.

Wow. Nice!
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Re: Looking at the numbers . . . 

Post#152 » by Nivek » Wed Jan 16, 2013 5:26 pm

I normally use 500 minutes as the cutoff for reliability in per minute stats. (Research from some of the stat guys suggest per minute stats stabilize around 150 total minutes, but I've always preferred 500.) I used 200 for the rookies because the season isn't even to the halfway point yet.

But, out of curiosity, I went to the 500-minute cutoff point. So far, 23 rookies have played at least 500 minutes. Beal ranks 11th in PPA among that group. Rookies with 500+ minutes have an average PPA of 80 so far -- a little better than Beal's 75.
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Re: Looking at the numbers . . . 

Post#153 » by AFM » Wed Jan 16, 2013 5:31 pm

I know it's a small sample size but what's Beal's PPA in the last month?
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Re: Looking at the numbers . . . 

Post#154 » by Nivek » Wed Jan 16, 2013 5:59 pm

AFM wrote:I know it's a small sample size but what's Beal's PPA in the last month?


Here are Beal's PPA scores by month:

Oct/Nov -- 52
December -- 65
January -- 124

The January number IS encouraging, but when I drill down, I do see things that make me...well..."nervous" isn't quite the right word, but it'll do. Specifically, Beal's improvement is almost exclusively in the category of 3pt shooting. His 2pt% is .397 in January -- down from .447 in December, which was up from .333 in Oct/Nov.

In January, his per minute numbers are down if fta, reb, and ast. He's a little better in steals, turnovers and fouls. All his numbers are at least decent for a SG, so no real worries. More of an observation, really.
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Re: Looking at the numbers . . . 

Post#155 » by tontoz » Wed Jan 16, 2013 6:14 pm

A few weeks ago Beal tried to dunk on Josh Smith and got punked so badly he ended up missing a couple of games. Against OKC he tried to dunk on Ibaka. He definitely has a lot to learn as far as finishing in/near the paint.

It also seems like too often he will go up for a jumper when a defender is in a good position to block/contest it.
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Re: Looking at the numbers . . . 

Post#156 » by montestewart » Wed Jan 16, 2013 6:28 pm

tontoz wrote:A few weeks ago Beal tried to dunk on Josh Smith and got punked so badly he ended up missing a couple of games. Against OKC he tried to dunk on Ibaka. He definitely has a lot to learn as far as finishing in/near the paint.

It also seems like too often he will go up for a jumper when a defender is in a good position to block/contest it.

It's those types of shortcomings that I don't worry much about right now. He seems smart and capable of working, adapting, and learning, and those seem the type of things a 19-year-old rookie would still be learning about the NBA.
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Re: Looking at the numbers . . . 

Post#157 » by tontoz » Wed Jan 16, 2013 6:58 pm

montestewart wrote:
tontoz wrote:A few weeks ago Beal tried to dunk on Josh Smith and got punked so badly he ended up missing a couple of games. Against OKC he tried to dunk on Ibaka. He definitely has a lot to learn as far as finishing in/near the paint.

It also seems like too often he will go up for a jumper when a defender is in a good position to block/contest it.

It's those types of shortcomings that I don't worry much about right now. He seems smart and capable of working, adapting, and learning, and those seem the type of things a 19-year-old rookie would still be learning about the NBA.



Agreed. Harden's 2 point percentage was pretty bad as a rookie. He only shot 47% at the rim compared to Beals current 59%.

Now that Beal seems to be past his rookie jitters i am hoping that he just makes his open jumpers at a good rate. These other things will probably take more time.
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Re: Looking at the numbers . . . 

Post#158 » by GhostsOfGil » Thu Jan 17, 2013 2:00 am

tontoz wrote:
montestewart wrote:
tontoz wrote:A few weeks ago Beal tried to dunk on Josh Smith and got punked so badly he ended up missing a couple of games. Against OKC he tried to dunk on Ibaka. He definitely has a lot to learn as far as finishing in/near the paint.

It also seems like too often he will go up for a jumper when a defender is in a good position to block/contest it.

It's those types of shortcomings that I don't worry much about right now. He seems smart and capable of working, adapting, and learning, and those seem the type of things a 19-year-old rookie would still be learning about the NBA.



Agreed. Harden's 2 point percentage was pretty bad as a rookie. He only shot 47% at the rim compared to Beals current 59%.

Now that Beal seems to be past his rookie jitters i am hoping that he just makes his open jumpers at a good rate. These other things will probably take more time.


The big reason for this was because Harden was blocked at the rim nearly 20% of the time... I had concernes about Beals shot blocked % until I saw that number.
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Re: Looking at the numbers . . . 

Post#159 » by hands11 » Fri Jan 18, 2013 6:35 am

http://espn.go.com/nba/statistics/playe ... fied/false

If they had only drafted NIkola like I wanted.

Not bad for a 22 year old in his second year. That would have been some nice center depth.
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Re: Looking at the numbers . . . 

Post#160 » by Nivek » Mon Jan 21, 2013 7:18 pm

"A lot of what we call talent is the desire to practice."
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Re: Looking at the numbers . . . 

Post#161 » by Jay81 » Mon Jan 21, 2013 7:21 pm

Nivek wrote:Latest stats update, including a look at Beal's January and Wall's start to the season.


what the heck is AJ price doing on that over 100 list? Did Ernie actually make a good move?
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Re: Looking at the numbers . . . 

Post#162 » by Nivek » Mon Jan 21, 2013 7:23 pm

Price has played well recently. We'll see where he ends up, but at present put Price in the "Ernie found one" column.

Need to go back and re-run the numbers on Price with some of the tweaks I've made to PPA this season.
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Re: Looking at the numbers . . . 

Post#163 » by hands11 » Tue Jan 22, 2013 1:09 am

Nivek wrote:Price has played well recently. We'll see where he ends up, but at present put Price in the "Ernie found one" column.

Need to go back and re-run the numbers on Price with some of the tweaks I've made to PPA this season.


Along with Webster.

Webster is at TS% .581
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Re: Looking at the numbers . . . 

Post#164 » by Nivek » Mon Jan 28, 2013 7:43 pm

Latest stat update looking at the full season, and at the last 10 games. For those past 10 games, Okafor playing like a top 10 player in the league, Webster like a top 15 player, Price like a top 50. Beal, Wall and Nene are the other players producing at an average or better rate, according to PPA over the past 10.
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Re: Looking at the numbers . . . 

Post#165 » by Zonkerbl » Mon Jan 28, 2013 8:18 pm

I see you've changed "replacement level" from 70 to 45...
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Re: Looking at the numbers . . . 

Post#166 » by MJG » Mon Jan 28, 2013 9:30 pm

Zonkerbl wrote:I see you've changed "replacement level" from 70 to 45...

It used to be 10th man, and was changed to 11th man. And I think that it was 60, rather than 70.
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Re: Looking at the numbers . . . 

Post#167 » by LyricalRico » Mon Jan 28, 2013 11:30 pm

Nice to Vesely's rating improve.
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Re: Looking at the numbers . . . 

Post#168 » by hands11 » Tue Jan 29, 2013 3:57 am

http://espn.go.com/nba/player/gamelog/_ ... eka-okafor

After that game, Okafor is now averaging a double double for January.

10.7 rebounds 10.1 pts

His last two games have been awesome.

15 rbs and 23 pts
16 rbs and 15 pts
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Re: Looking at the numbers . . . 

Post#169 » by mohammed10 » Tue Jan 29, 2013 4:41 am

hands11 wrote:http://espn.go.com/nba/player/gamelog/_/id/2399/emeka-okafor

After that game, Okafor is not averaging a double double for January.

10.7 rebounds 10.1 pts

His last two games have been awesome.

15 rbs and 23 pts
16 rbs and 15 pts


Woah...those are Cousins' type numbers
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Re: Looking at the numbers . . . 

Post#170 » by B-easy » Tue Jan 29, 2013 8:55 am

Wall shooting 45% from the field now, pretty good.

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