RealGM

pancakes3 wrote:You could have probably said that in 1/10 of the words, Hands.

"Our starting lineup's fg is crap. Shouldn't a team at least be able to field starters that don't shoot sub-40%? We should start Livingston, Webster, Singleton, Nene, and Barron, and have that squad close out the half. I think this is a much more effective and balanced way to line them up."

And you'd probably would have a lot more people read it and agree with the abridged version too. I agree except for the Barron part. Nene/Seraphin is a must and I wouldn't be opposed to Nene/Okafor even with fg% considered. Another question is if Livingston can handle starters minutes. Starting Webster is a no-brainer - and taking the pressure off Beal wouldn't hurt.

I wanted to post something that was data driven so I wanted to include all the numbers. Once the numbers where there, I wanted to walk through the logic of the choices and pairings and see where it lead.

Now that the outline of the data is there, it can more easily get updated to support one view or another.

By the numbers.

As for Livingston handling start minutes why would be be able to ? Besides, Price will get his share of minutes also. Its just about when each gets the minutes and with who.

I see no reason not to try Baron like that. When you go position by position and see what the number tell, it works. Nene and Barron starting gives you what you need in the post. Then Kevin comes in for Nene after 5 minutes and you see how he plays with Baron. If it still works, stay with it, If it isn't, you roll in Okafor.

The key driving force is that Nene has to start but he can't log more then 20 minutes right now. You could start Okafor with Nene but numbers didn't point to that being the better option.

C Min FG % least .500
Barron FG .526 eFG .526 TS% .517 with a Drtg 100 Ast % 6.6 TRB % 19.3 BLK % 1.4
Nene FG .517 eFG .517 TS% .595 with a Drtg 101 Ast % 11.4 TRB % 12.6 BLK % 0.9
Okafor FG .404 eFG .404 TS% .450 with a Drtg 101 Ast % 7.6 TRB % 15.4 BLK % 5.8
Ves FG .433 eFG .433 TS% .406 with a Drtg 105 Ast % 8.6 TRB % 9.9 BLK % 1.9

Nivek wrote:If I gather this correctly, the sentiment expressed seems to be that Wittman should decide his lineup based on FG%. If so, it's just one more nonsensical rabbit hole for the Wizards to go down -- right along with drafting "if only" players, bringing in "veterans" to change "the culture" and picking players based on a narrowly specific subset of skills.

The team does need to shoot better, but the best PLAYERS should be the ones in the lineup the most.

FG% was one factor. Starters should be your best two way players. Scoring and defending. Back ups can be good at one or the other or less good at both given better options.

Nivek wrote:If I gather this correctly, the sentiment expressed seems to be that Wittman should decide his lineup based on FG%. If so, it's just one more nonsensical rabbit hole for the Wizards to go down -- right along with drafting "if only" players, bringing in "veterans" to change "the culture" and picking players based on a narrowly specific subset of skills.

The team does need to shoot better, but the best PLAYERS should be the ones in the lineup the most.

+1

Here's a chart of our players in order of their WP48 this season: http://www.thenbageek.com/teams/was?dir ... %22WP48%22

Make up your own mind about who should be playing how many minutes. Basic info is that we suck!

payitforward wrote:

Nivek wrote:If I gather this correctly, the sentiment expressed seems to be that Wittman should decide his lineup based on FG%. If so, it's just one more nonsensical rabbit hole for the Wizards to go down -- right along with drafting "if only" players, bringing in "veterans" to change "the culture" and picking players based on a narrowly specific subset of skills.

The team does need to shoot better, but the best PLAYERS should be the ones in the lineup the most.

+1

Here's a chart of our players in order of their WP48 this season: http://www.thenbageek.com/teams/was?dir ... %22WP48%22

Make up your own mind about who should be playing how many minutes. Basic info is that we suck!

Based on WP48 vs the data I posted ? Why ? The data I posted is much more complete.

My weekly numbers update at the blog.

Summary:

- I find Leonsis disingenuous or clueless.
- Leonsis says the team is building around 6 youngsters it has acquired over the past 2-3 years. All 6 rate below average this season; 4 of the 6 rate below replacement level; 1 is in negative territory
- Washington has 4 players who have produced at an above-average rate -- all player fewer than 22 minutes per game.

I think I'll take a break from watching the wizards play. GF hates it, I hate it, less time for me to do other, more fun things.

Too depressing.

Sad, because I really like basketball, and only really like to watch local pro teams play. But this team is just... ugh.

Nivek, can you explain the negative rating for Vesely? What exactly does a negative rating signify, besides that he sucks.

Zonkerbl wrote:I think I'll take a break from watching the wizards play. GF hates it, I hate it, less time for me to do other, more fun things.

Too depressing.

Sad, because I really like basketball, and only really like to watch local pro teams play. But this team is just... ugh.

Instead of obsessing about the Wizards, Zonker, listen to your GF and (EDITED -- He's alive and probably still strokin') the great Clarence Carter.

Clarence offers many interesting ideas besides watching the Wizards.

WARNING: NSFW! (Unless you work where I first heard this song, at a post office in the hood.)

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P7gMkiOPSeA[/youtube]

Have you ever been doing something in a car and had the pohleece flash a light on you? I have. I long for those days.

hands11 wrote:

payitforward wrote:

Nivek wrote:If I gather this correctly, the sentiment expressed seems to be that Wittman should decide his lineup based on FG%. If so, it's just one more nonsensical rabbit hole for the Wizards to go down -- right along with drafting "if only" players, bringing in "veterans" to change "the culture" and picking players based on a narrowly specific subset of skills.

The team does need to shoot better, but the best PLAYERS should be the ones in the lineup the most.

+1

Here's a chart of our players in order of their WP48 this season: http://www.thenbageek.com/teams/was?dir ... %22WP48%22

Make up your own mind about who should be playing how many minutes. Basic info is that we suck!

Based on WP48 vs the data I posted ? Why ? The data I posted is much more complete.

fg% doesn't include defense.

AFM wrote:Nivek, can you explain the negative rating for Vesely? What exactly does a negative rating signify, besides that he sucks.

The idea behind "replacement level" is that it's the level of performance an average team can expect when trying to replace a player at minimal cost -- freely available talent. In NBA parlance, that'd be D-League talent or a street free agent.

In my system, I've set replacement level at 60. That's a positive number. The player is well below average, but still contributing something. Vesely in negative territory signifies that he "produces" would be easily replaced by freely available talent.

Chocolate City Jordanaire wrote:

Zonkerbl wrote:I think I'll take a break from watching the wizards play. GF hates it, I hate it, less time for me to do other, more fun things.

Too depressing.

Sad, because I really like basketball, and only really like to watch local pro teams play. But this team is just... ugh.

Instead of obsessing about the Wizards, Zonker, listen to your GF and the late, great Clarence Carter.

Clarence offers many interesting ideas besides watching the Wizards.

WARNING: NSFW! (Unless you work where I first heard this song, at a post office in the hood.)

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P7gMkiOPSeA[/youtube]

Have you ever been doing something in a car and had the pohleece flash a light on you? I have. I long for those days.

Man, I walked right into that one, didn't I?

Zonkerbl wrote:

Chocolate City Jordanaire wrote:

Zonkerbl wrote:I think I'll take a break from watching the wizards play. GF hates it, I hate it, less time for me to do other, more fun things.

Too depressing.

Sad, because I really like basketball, and only really like to watch local pro teams play. But this team is just... ugh.

Instead of obsessing about the Wizards, Zonker, listen to your GF and the late, great Clarence Carter.

Clarence offers many interesting ideas besides watching the Wizards.

WARNING: NSFW! (Unless you work where I first heard this song, at a post office in the hood.)

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P7gMkiOPSeA[/youtube]

Have you ever been doing something in a car and had the pohleece flash a light on you? I have. I long for those days.

Man, I walked right into that one, didn't I?

If you're lucky you did! Send those girls right over....

Posted my latest power ranking (Wiz rank last, of course) plus an awards watch and the first look at my "Diamond" rating, which compares a player's per game production to his per minute production.

Andray Blatche made the Diamond list. Sigh.

Nivek wrote:Posted my latest power ranking (Wiz rank last, of course) plus an awards watch and the first look at my "Diamond" rating, which compares a player's per game production to his per minute production.

Andray Blatche made the Diamond list. Sigh.

The Nets' alchemical staff are truly masters of their craft.

It's good to be alive ….



CORRECTION: Clarence Carter is very much alive. http://www.clarencecarter.net/

When I was a boy, my mom sometimes called me "Patches". A line in one of his songs went, "Patches, I'm depending on you, son". He also sang a song called "Slip Away" that was real big in my dad's day.

To get back on topic, Nivek, of course Blatche made the diamond list.

If the Wizards trade Vesely, he'll do well on another roster, too. Bradley Beal would soon be a diamond if they trade him. This type of thing is the norm with Washington.

Not surprised at all by Blatche's productivity.

Chocolate City Jordanaire wrote:To get back on topic, Nivek, of course Blatche made the diamond list.

If the Wizards trade Vesely, he'll do well on another roster, too. Bradley Beal would soon be a diamond if they trade him. This type of thing is the norm with Washington.

People keep saying this, but it's really not true. As a rule, former Wizards tend to play worse after they have been traded or allowed to depart via free agency:

Blatche - better after departing
McGee - same
Young - terrible in LA. Not so good in Philly either
Hinrich - worse in Atlanta
Gee - better after departing, but does his 22 total games as a Wizard really count?
Jamison - worse in Cleveland and LA
Butler - worse in Dallas and horrible in LA
Haywood - worse in Dallas and about the same in Charlotte
Miller - worse in Miami
McGuire - about the same (useful bench player)

and going back a little further
Jeffries - terrible in New York
Hughes - terrible in Cleveland

With the exception of Blatche in a small sample size, you really have to go back to the days of Rip, B.Wallace, R.Wallace and Webber to find a time when this assertion was actually true.

remember this saying

"Once a player leaves the Wizards, they become Star Talent!"

Nivek wrote:My weekly numbers update at the blog.

Summary:

- I find Leonsis disingenuous or clueless.
- Leonsis says the team is building around 6 youngsters it has acquired over the past 2-3 years. All 6 rate below average this season; 4 of the 6 rate below replacement level; 1 is in negative territory
- Washington has 4 players who have produced at an above-average rate -- all player fewer than 22 minutes per game.

No, no, you are missing the point. Let's assume Wall comes back and plays at the same slightly below average level he did at the end of last year, but can only go for 20+ minutes per game. That means we can put five players on the court who are, in the aggregate, above-average. The catch is that we can only do so for 20+ minutes per game. So EG just needs to make the league shorten the games by half. Voila, playoffs.

Took a look at the Leonsis claim that the Wizards will be better when they get Wall back and can play at a faster pace. Shockingly, the evidence doesn't support that assertion.

nate33 wrote:

Chocolate City Jordanaire wrote:To get back on topic, Nivek, of course Blatche made the diamond list.

If the Wizards trade Vesely, he'll do well on another roster, too. Bradley Beal would soon be a diamond if they trade him. This type of thing is the norm with Washington.

People keep saying this, but it's really not true. As a rule, former Wizards tend to play worse after they have been traded or allowed to depart via free agency:

Blatche - better after departing
McGee - same
Young - terrible in LA. Not so good in Philly either
Hinrich - worse in Atlanta
Gee - better after departing, but does his 22 total games as a Wizard really count?
Jamison - worse in Cleveland and LA
Butler - worse in Dallas and horrible in LA
Haywood - worse in Dallas and about the same in Charlotte
Miller - worse in Miami
McGuire - about the same (useful bench player)

and going back a little further
Jeffries - terrible in New York
Hughes - terrible in Cleveland

With the exception of Blatche in a small sample size, you really have to go back to the days of Rip, B.Wallace, R.Wallace and Webber to find a time when this assertion was actually true.

You can add Pecherov to that list too, as he essentially played himself out of the league.