Official 2013 Draft Thread - Part I

[BruceO]

what guards have scored well in your system in the past? seems like bigs are scoring consistently well in it. which isn't a bad thing

[Mizerooskie]

I'm particularly interested in Poythress, though I imagine we're going to be looking at Len/Shabazz/Noel/Zeller as well. I'm intrigued about Noel's shotblocking, in particularly -- usually collegiate shotblocking translates pretty well, and he's certainly elite thus far this season.

Ran the numbers on these guys. Here's what YODA would say about each based on their performance this season:

1. Zeller -- score is consistent with a #1-#1 pick in most drafts.
2. Noel -- rating is good enough to be the top pick in some drafts; top 5 pick in most
3. Len -- top 10 pick in most drafts
4. Muhammad & Poythress -- identical scores thus far; consistent with mid-first round picks -- after 15

Quick clarification question:

When you say something like #1 in most drafts, does that mean he's got a similar YODA score to the guy who went #1, or similar score to the guy with the #1 YODA score in most drafts?

[Nivek]

what guards have scored well in your system in the past? seems like bigs are scoring consistently well in it. which isn't a bad thing

Remember, the look at this year's players was strictly on request. Not a comprehensive look by any means.

In terms of how guards done in YODA... recent highly rated guards include Kyrie Irving, Marcus Denmon, Brandon Knight did pretty well, Wall's rating was consistent with a top 5 pick in most drafts, Ty Lawson, Stephen Curry, Derrick Rose...

The highest rated guard in YODA is Michael Jordan's junior season -- 7th highest score in the database. Ray Allen's junior year is effectively tied for that spot. Highest rated PG was Ty Lawson's junior year, which was just a notch behind Jordan and Allen.

[Nivek]

I'm particularly interested in Poythress, though I imagine we're going to be looking at Len/Shabazz/Noel/Zeller as well. I'm intrigued about Noel's shotblocking, in particularly -- usually collegiate shotblocking translates pretty well, and he's certainly elite thus far this season.

Ran the numbers on these guys. Here's what YODA would say about each based on their performance this season:

1. Zeller -- score is consistent with a #1-#1 pick in most drafts.
2. Noel -- rating is good enough to be the top pick in some drafts; top 5 pick in most
3. Len -- top 10 pick in most drafts
4. Muhammad & Poythress -- identical scores thus far; consistent with mid-first round picks -- after 15

Quick clarification question:

When you say something like #1 in most drafts, does that mean he's got a similar YODA score to the guy who went #1, or similar score to the guy with the #1 YODA score in most drafts?

The latter. Although, in many years, the former would also be true. What I meant, though, was that Zeller's score in YODA is in the same general range as the top-ranked player in most of the seasons I have in the database.

[BruceO]

My follow up question. Would you rather take a big who's maybe the fifth best rated big ( or possibility B way below the vest bigs ) vs a guard who's rated first among guards or ahead by a margin but rated lower than the big.

I have been thinking about availability. Availability now and in the future and if it's better to get the rarer commodity assuming in a few years all the other guys will hit the market and provide more optionality vs all of you guys with a certain need only having few choices. Demand supply I guess and the economics involved in player selection and free agency

How's Archie goodwin doing in yoga. His stats seem ok. And Ben mclemore seems really liked by nbadraft.net

[pancakes3]

Not to speak for Nivek but

a) it's YODA
b) you know it's bad when people are pining for YODA in mid-December
c) it's a bit tiresome to run numbers constantly for guys especially before the conference play gets into full swing.

I think we should all cool it with asking Kev for YODA projections until after March Madness so he can make a clean sweep and minimize the work.

Plus we get to declare our draft crushes before Nivek pulls back the curtain and validates/shames us with his legit research. I think it's more fun that way.

Hop on the Noel/Plumlee train now while there's room. I have a feeling Zeller's stock is going to drop like a rock much like Sullinger's did.

[Halcyon]

Yup, right now they're playing non-conference scrubs mostly, inflating the stats. Really no point in heavy stat analysis (especially with young guys) until the end of the college season.

[gambitx777]

Well, for the first round pick if it's as high as we think it might be.
Alex Len should be our guy.

For our second round pick . If these guys are there we take a look at them for sure.

Sean Kilpatrick

CJ Leslie

Lorenzo Brown

Rodney Williams

Doug McDermott

Robert Covington

[hands11]

Time for the Tanksters to start sweating.

These next 5 games are going to be tough.

But not to worry. The following 7 should be much easier.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Not to speak for Nivek but

a) it's YODA
b) you know it's bad when people are pining for YODA in mid-December
c) it's a bit tiresome to run numbers constantly for guys especially before the conference play gets into full swing.

I think we should all cool it with asking Kev for YODA projections until after March Madness so he can make a clean sweep and minimize the work.

Plus we get to declare our draft crushes before Nivek pulls back the curtain and validates/shames us with his legit research. I think it's more fun that way.

Hop on the Noel/Plumlee train now while there's room. I have a feeling Zeller's stock is going to drop like a rock much like Sullinger's did.

Plumlee made an excellent decision to return for his senior season. He is stronger and will have a lot more opportunities to improve his offensive skills. Early on in the season he appears to be doing just what you want to see. He's converting free throws and scoring a lot more.

As high as Alex Len projects in this draft, I believe he would be much better with one more season of college ball to improve his strength. I know he's coming out this season and I wonder how he Len fare in the post in the NBA.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Well, for the first round pick if it's as high as we think it might be.
Alex Len should be our guy.

For our second round pick . If these guys are there we take a look at them for sure.

Sean Kilpatrick

CJ Leslie

Lorenzo Brown

Rodney Williams

Doug McDermott

Robert Covington

Doug McDermott is a no-brainer good pick for the Wizards. Forget about his defense, the guy can shoot lights out. If Singler can make in the league as a SF so can McDermott. He even plays at the same school as Kyle Korver. Hate to go stereotype to death. Chris Copeland for the Knicks is the kind of player I envision McDermott becoming.

I think McDermott might end up going in round one by the time all is said and done.

[Mizerooskie]

The latter. Although, in many years, the former would also be true. What I meant, though, was that Zeller's score in YODA is in the same general range as the top-ranked player in most of the seasons I have in the database.

Much appreciated. That's what I figured, just wanted to be clear.

Ever considered starting a draft site separate from your blog?

[Mizerooskie]

McDermott's a good shout for the second rounder. I bet we see another Euro stash, however. For as bad as this team is, there aren't many open roster spots for next season.

On Plumlee, He'd be a good pick for the Wizards if the pick falls later in the top 10. I bet he'll have a Kris Humphries-type career.

Some games in the next couple of weeks I'm really looking forward to watching:

12/22 - Kansas vs. OSU -- Ben McLemore and Jeff Withey vs. Deshaun Thomas and Aaron Craft
12/28 - UCLA vs. Missouri -- Big test for Muhammed against a potential Elite 8 team.
12/29 - Kentucky vs. Lousville -- Hopefully Dieng is healthy by then. I'd love to see the Dieng-Noel battle. T'll also be interesting to see how Poythress and Goodwin do against that defense.
12/29 - UNLV vs. UNC -- Anthony Bennett vs. a very athletic Tar Heel front court. Easily his biggest test to date. It should give us a better idea how he measures up against strong competition.

[AWIZZINGBULLET]

McDermott's a good shout for the second rounder. I bet we see another Euro stash, however. For as bad as this team is, there aren't many open roster spots for next season.
On Plumlee, He'd be a good pick for the Wizards if the pick falls later in the top 10. I bet he'll have a Kris Humphries-type career.

Some games in the next couple of weeks I'm really looking forward to watching:

12/22 - Kansas vs. OSU -- Ben McLemore and Jeff Withey vs. Deshaun Thomas and Aaron Craft
12/28 - UCLA vs. Missouri -- Big test for Muhammed against a potential Elite 8 team.
12/29 - Kentucky vs. Lousville -- Hopefully Dieng is healthy by then. I'd love to see the Dieng-Noel battle. T'll also be interesting to see how Poythress and Goodwin do against that defense.
12/29 - UNLV vs. UNC -- Anthony Bennett vs. a very athletic Tar Heel front court. Easily his biggest test to date. It should give us a better idea how he measures up against strong competition.

Martin, Barron, Price, Livingston, and Webster are all signed to one-year deals I believe. Then there are trades, I don't think Okafor is coming back for another season.

[BigA]

Ran the numbers on these guys. Here's what YODA would say about each based on their performance this season:

1. Zeller -- score is consistent with a #1-#1 pick in most drafts.
2. Noel -- rating is good enough to be the top pick in some drafts; top 5 pick in most
3. Len -- top 10 pick in most drafts
4. Muhammad & Poythress -- identical scores thus far; consistent with mid-first round picks -- after 15

Nivek, could you clarify the relationship between your YODA and ASS systems? Are they completely independent of each other, or did you pull YODA out of your ASS somehow? Thanks.

[Severn Hoos]

I'm torn on Zeller - can't tell if he'll have the same type of impact in the NBA or if his current advantages will be negated playing against bigger (or at least as big) players, most of whom are stronger than he is.

If we don't take him or Noel at the top of the draft, I REALLY like Withey as a later 1st round guy. Don't think he'd make it to the 2nd, but if they could do a deal like the Booker one where they move up from the top of the 2nd into the early 20s, I'd be all over Withey. He seems like the perfect complement to our stable of kinda-sorta C/PFs, all of whom are between 6'8 and 6'10. He could be the shotblocker & defensive specialist who comes in and may play 10 minutes one night and 30 the next, depending on the matchups.

As for anyone else, this draft kind of scares me. No one jumps out as a guy I'd just love to have, especially an explosive/scoring wing, which is what I think we need the most. Alas, we always seem to pick the wrong years to really suck.

[Mizerooskie]

McDermott's a good shout for the second rounder. I bet we see another Euro stash, however. For as bad as this team is, there aren't many open roster spots for next season.
On Plumlee, He'd be a good pick for the Wizards if the pick falls later in the top 10. I bet he'll have a Kris Humphries-type career.

Some games in the next couple of weeks I'm really looking forward to watching:

12/22 - Kansas vs. OSU -- Ben McLemore and Jeff Withey vs. Deshaun Thomas and Aaron Craft
12/28 - UCLA vs. Missouri -- Big test for Muhammed against a potential Elite 8 team.
12/29 - Kentucky vs. Lousville -- Hopefully Dieng is healthy by then. I'd love to see the Dieng-Noel battle. T'll also be interesting to see how Poythress and Goodwin do against that defense.
12/29 - UNLV vs. UNC -- Anthony Bennett vs. a very athletic Tar Heel front court. Easily his biggest test to date. It should give us a better idea how he measures up against strong competition.

Martin, Barron, Price, Livingston, and Webster are all signed to one-year deals I believe. Then there are trades, I don't think Okafor is coming back for another season.

For 2013/14, They've got: Wall, Crawford, Beal, Ariza, Singleton, Vesely, Booker, Seraphin, Nene, Okafor, 2013 1st rounder.

That's 11. Plus, I bet they bring back Webster and add a vet PG. That's 13.

I mean, I'm hopeful they pare down the depth, but I'm just speculating what EG's thinking will be (because I'm assuming TL doesn't have the balls to can him).

[Nivek]

Ran the numbers on these guys. Here's what YODA would say about each based on their performance this season:

1. Zeller -- score is consistent with a #1-#1 pick in most drafts.
2. Noel -- rating is good enough to be the top pick in some drafts; top 5 pick in most
3. Len -- top 10 pick in most drafts
4. Muhammad & Poythress -- identical scores thus far; consistent with mid-first round picks -- after 15

Nivek, could you clarify the relationship between your YODA and ASS systems? Are they completely independent of each other, or did you pull YODA out of your ASS somehow? Thanks.

YODA was originally was part of my ASS. It wasn't a good fit. I finally removed YODA from my ASS using a procedure known as DRE.

[Nivek]

Here's the list of freshman centers or PFs who had YODA scores higher than Cody Zeller:

- Anthony Davis
- Kevin Love
- Michael Beasley
- Elton Brand
- Chris Webber
- Zach Randolph
- Joe Smith
- Chris Bosh
- Greg Oden
- Shaquille O'Neal
- Patrick Ewing
- Demarcus Cousins

Some notable freshman PF or C who had LOWER scores in YODA:

- Hakeem
- Mutombo
- Camby
- Drummond
- Hibbert
- T. Zeller
- Boozer
- Duncan
- Rasheed Wallace
- Sullinger
- Millsap
- Aldridge
- Barkley
- Jamison
- Karl Malone
- Faried
- Taj Gibson
- Sweetney
- Mason Plumlee

Too early to say what his sophomore score means. And, it doesn't include athletic tests and physical measurements from the combine, which are a factor in the overall score. In terms of production, what he's done in college so far suggests someone who will be a successful pro.

[AWIZZINGBULLET]

McDermott's a good shout for the second rounder. I bet we see another Euro stash, however. For as bad as this team is, there aren't many open roster spots for next season.
On Plumlee, He'd be a good pick for the Wizards if the pick falls later in the top 10. I bet he'll have a Kris Humphries-type career.

Some games in the next couple of weeks I'm really looking forward to watching:

12/22 - Kansas vs. OSU -- Ben McLemore and Jeff Withey vs. Deshaun Thomas and Aaron Craft
12/28 - UCLA vs. Missouri -- Big test for Muhammed against a potential Elite 8 team.
12/29 - Kentucky vs. Lousville -- Hopefully Dieng is healthy by then. I'd love to see the Dieng-Noel battle. T'll also be interesting to see how Poythress and Goodwin do against that defense.
12/29 - UNLV vs. UNC -- Anthony Bennett vs. a very athletic Tar Heel front court. Easily his biggest test to date. It should give us a better idea how he measures up against strong competition.

Martin, Barron, Price, Livingston, and Webster are all signed to one-year deals I believe. Then there are trades, I don't think Okafor is coming back for another season.

For 2013/14, They've got: Wall, Crawford, Beal, Ariza, Singleton, Vesely, Booker, Seraphin, Nene, Okafor, 2013 1st rounder.

That's 11. Plus, I bet they bring back Webster and add a vet PG. That's 13.

I mean, I'm hopeful they pare down the depth, but I'm just speculating what EG's thinking will be (because I'm assuming TL doesn't have the balls to can him).

That would still leave two spots open. I don't think there's any chance Okafor comes back, he seems real frustrated playing for Washington, I think the Wizards try to package him to another team instead of just letting him walk without getting anything in return.

Even though the team could use another perimeter shooter I don't think McDermott woud be a good fit in Washington. He's not athletic and is a non-factor defensively.