Official 2013 Draft Thread - Part I

[nuposse04]

The more I've seen Poythress, the less I like his chances in the NBA. Physically, he's impressive, and he seems to have a good attitude, but he's really struggling. Part of the problem is KY is trying to get him to adjust to the 3, and he's used to having his way down low - not on the perimeter. But when you're playing with 2 guys around 7' tall, you can't stay in the paint. He is nowhere near ready for the NBA.

Here's a link to Ed Weiland's thoughts and rankings through 12/31/12. http://hoopsanalyst.com/blog/?p=965 It's a fun read for all draft geeks - with lots of interesting insights on how he rates players, but as he says - his rankings are very fluid when he did them. Some are really way off, imo - but hey, it's preliminary.

well statistically, he seems to be decent, at least from what I've seen, although I'm not sure how to interpret college stats
http://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/pla ... ess-1.html

I mean obviously he won't maintain that level of dominance but where are the red flags? I don't see why he can't have K. Leonard type potential for us.

[Rafael122]

So Jay Williams was on Sportscenter last night and he said Doug McDermott has Larry Bird like tendencies. I immediately felt like I was having a moment of deja vu. He's the next Adam Morrison.

[Ruzious]

The more I've seen Poythress, the less I like his chances in the NBA. Physically, he's impressive, and he seems to have a good attitude, but he's really struggling. Part of the problem is KY is trying to get him to adjust to the 3, and he's used to having his way down low - not on the perimeter. But when you're playing with 2 guys around 7' tall, you can't stay in the paint. He is nowhere near ready for the NBA.

Here's a link to Ed Weiland's thoughts and rankings through 12/31/12. http://hoopsanalyst.com/blog/?p=965 It's a fun read for all draft geeks - with lots of interesting insights on how he rates players, but as he says - his rankings are very fluid when he did them. Some are really way off, imo - but hey, it's preliminary.

well statistically, he seems to be decent, at least from what I've seen, although I'm not sure how to interpret college stats
http://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/pla ... ess-1.html

I mean obviously he won't maintain that level of dominance but where are the red flags? I don't see why he can't have K. Leonard type potential for us.

You're absolutely right that his stats look good. But watching him - it's a case where the stats don't tell the story, imo.

[Ruzious]

So Jay Williams was on Sportscenter last night and he said Doug McDermott has Larry Bird like tendencies. I immediately felt like I was having a moment of deja vu. He's the next Adam Morrison.

I'll go out on a limb and project him somewhere between Bird and Novak. Physically, he is a lot stronger than Morrison. I'd have no problem with the Wiz taking him early 2nd.

[pancakes3]

FWIW Poythress got lit up on Saturday by some dude from A&M. 9 points in the starting 6 minutes. Of course he was on fire the whole game but it doesn't bode well. Nerlens Noel finished with 15 Pts, 11 Reb, 6 Ast, 4 Stl, 7 Blk.

[nuposse04]

The more I've seen Poythress, the less I like his chances in the NBA. Physically, he's impressive, and he seems to have a good attitude, but he's really struggling. Part of the problem is KY is trying to get him to adjust to the 3, and he's used to having his way down low - not on the perimeter. But when you're playing with 2 guys around 7' tall, you can't stay in the paint. He is nowhere near ready for the NBA.

Here's a link to Ed Weiland's thoughts and rankings through 12/31/12. http://hoopsanalyst.com/blog/?p=965 It's a fun read for all draft geeks - with lots of interesting insights on how he rates players, but as he says - his rankings are very fluid when he did them. Some are really way off, imo - but hey, it's preliminary.

well statistically, he seems to be decent, at least from what I've seen, although I'm not sure how to interpret college stats
http://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/pla ... ess-1.html

I mean obviously he won't maintain that level of dominance but where are the red flags? I don't see why he can't have K. Leonard type potential for us.

You're absolutely right that his stats look good. But watching him - it's a case where the stats don't tell the story, imo.

Not that I don't believe you, but I'll try to catch some Kentucky games to see what you're getting at. If we're picking around 5-8 and we aren't getting any good offers for our pick via trading out, I don't see Poythress as a bad gamble, I mean hell we drafted vesely.

If we manage to trade down some while shedding some contract and move to like 11-15 range I wouldn't taking a shot at someone like Otto or Tony Mitchell.

[Ruzious]

nuposse, you're right to not take my word for it. I'd like to hear what you think after watching them - and what position you think he should play in the NBA. Luckily, KY's games are usually televised. I think he looks lost at both ends when he plays on the perimeter. When Cauley-Stein sits, and he gets to play inside, he's much better. We were talking about Derrick Williams in another thread. Poythress reminds me of a poor man's Derrick Williams.

[tontoz]

I have only seen Poythress a couple of times. On offense he looks lost, kind of the opposit of Beal.

When Beal gets the ball he reacts quickly (shoot,pass, drive) usually making the right play. When Poythress gets the ball it is almost like you can see the wheels turning "WTF do i do now?".

I think he will be a good defender and maybe even be able to defend both the 3 and 4 fairly well. But his offense has a long way to go from what i have seen. I don't even think it is poor skills necessarily, he just doesn't know what he is doing on the perimeter.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Would you trade Beal for Lillard? (In fairness, Lillard is 22 and Beal 19)

I would not, because of their respective ages. At age 22, I'm pretty confident Beal will be dominating as much as Lillard is now.

I wouldn't have, either. However, I thought #6 and #11 would get Lillard and Zeller.

At draft time, I thought Zeller was potentially a stretch 4/5 like Pau Gasol, but not quite that good. I thought Lillard with Tyler Zeller instead of Beal was a good trade off. Washington could use a big guy who can make an 8-12 footer.

Now, I'm happy with Beal because he gets it. He's young but I can tell he's very poised at both ends of the court.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Anyone like Poythress ?

Definitely.

In my wildest hopes and dreams, the Wizard trades Crawford or Singleton--even both--for a pick that gets a player like Poythress. He has a solid perimeter game and he's a very, very intelligent guy. I think he's too unselfish. I wonder how much different from Martell Webster Alex Poythress is. Poythress is a high-character, accurate shooter.

Having said that, I would rather have Doug McDermott over Poythress. McDermott never stops moving and he's a better passer. He's more assertive than Poythress IMO.

[TheBigThree]

Didn't see the game and the numbers aren't particularly good, but Len had the final 6 points, including the game winner, in the Terps win over NC State.

[Floater]

Didn't see the game and the numbers aren't particularly good, but Len had the final 6 points, including the game winner, in the Terps win over NC State.

I have to imagine Len would look much, much better in a decent offense with a good PG

[Ruzious]

Didn't see the game and the numbers aren't particularly good, but Len had the final 6 points, including the game winner, in the Terps win over NC State.

You're lucky you didn't see it - unless you enjoy watching horrible offensive play. Even though MD won in dramatic fashion, I didn't enjoy it. Len obviously played well at the end, but he also put up some shots that looked like he was just throwing the ball towards the rim. MD does need to get him the ball more often and probably should run their offense through him - since they don't have a legit point guard.

[Ruzious]

Anyone like Poythress ?

Definitely.

In my wildest hopes and dreams, the Wizard trades Crawford or Singleton--even both--for a pick that gets a player like Poythress. He has a solid perimeter game and he's a very, very intelligent guy. I think he's too unselfish. I wonder how much different from Martell Webster Alex Poythress is. Poythress is a high-character, accurate shooter.

Having said that, I would rather have Doug McDermott over Poythress. McDermott never stops moving and he's a better passer. He's more assertive than Poythress IMO.

I have not seen that part of his game. But he is a very good interior scorer - that's where his comfort zone is.

[pancakes3]

I think last night was the nail in the coffin for me in choosing between BPA and need. Even though we've got Nene, Okafor, Seraphin, and Ves, we need a C. Dump Okafor, Seraphin, and Ves, we need a guy down low with hands and springs and can score on dump-offs and putbacks. We need a guy down low who can grab rebounds, pass with his back to the basket, and draw fouls. We need a guy down low who's not looking for shots but converts at a high % when he does get the ball.

Shabazz isn't good enough of a player to be taken without need taken into consideration. 3 assists and 0 blocks, 0 steals in the last 5 games just reinforces the fact that the kid only knows how to score. The Howland effect is in play, so he may not be as bad as advertised but the point remains - he's 1 dimensional and isn't even that good at his one dimension.

Then look at Noel. Clearly the best player on that Kentucky squad. In their loss against A&M, he led the team in rebounds, assists, blocks, steals, and was 2nd in scoring, dropping 15 points on 6 shots. Goodwin scored 17 on 16 shots. I mean, as raw as he is, how is he averaging 2 apg when only getting 7 fga's? How is he shooting 4 FT's a game on such limited touches? And on top of the video game block/steal numbers? 4 blocks, 3 steals a game? To me he's hands down the #1 pick and he's as good a prospect as Anthony Davis.

[nate33]

I'm not sure if our need is greater in the post or on the wing. They are both long term needs. But I would tend to agree with the sentiment to go after a big, but for a different reason.

The way I see it, really good bigs are only available in the mid-to-high lottery (think Horford, Noah, Drummond, Cousins, etc.). Wings can be found anytime. Also, bigs often take a little longer to develop. If we can acquire a big this summer with our number 5ish pick, he'll have a year as an understudy behind Okafor before being relied upon for major minutes. In 2014, we'll probably be a bit better and play close to .500 ball. Our pick will be in the 13-18 range where we will be unlikely to find a starting-caliber big, but wings might still be available.

I don't feel too strongly either way though. Certainly, we should be picking the best player available assuming he isn't a PG or SG.

[fishercob]

I wouldn't turn down a great PG prospect were he available. Unpopular as it may be, going in a different direction at the point and trading Wall before we commit big money to him at least has to be considered.

[tontoz]

I have not seen that part of his game. But he is a very good interior scorer - that's where his comfort zone is.

From the perimeter all I have seen are standstill jumpers and straight line drives (that frequently don't end well).

I think the predraft workouts will be important for him. If he shows some offensive skills he could get picked pretty high.

[Nivek]

I wouldn't turn down a great PG prospect were he available. Unpopular as it may be, going in a different direction at the point and trading Wall before we commit big money to him at least has to be considered.

I agree. The Wizards roster is in a state where BPA is what they need to take.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

The BPA/need thing gets me every time. Who was the best player (not named Jordan) in the draft which also featured Hakeem, Charles Barkley, Sam Bowie, Mel Turpin, Alvin Robertson, Otis Thorpe, Leon Wood, Kevin Willis, John Stockton, Michael Cage, Vern Fleming, and at #70 Rick Carlisle.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1984_NBA_Draft

Maybe I'm being a contrarian but how can you tell BPA when there is no Anthony Davis and the rest kind of draft? (Right now Andre Drummond says hello to BPA AD).

This 2013 draft is giving me fits trying to figure it out. Noel is a tremendous defender. Cody Zeller at PF is downright smooth. Alex Len has no guard and he's weak, sometimes brings the ball low, can get knocked off balance, appears to be coasting along -- but then turns it on and plays like a BEAST. He's got fire. He's HUGE. Maryland's defense is great with him as its anchor. Muhammed is a prototypical scoring wing and can score through contact, but he's just a scorer and not always dominant. McLemore looks like MJ at times, when he's not looking like Ray Allen, but what about his handles?

Marcus Smart seems to me to be a flat out winner. I said I like him better than Beal (and then Beal hit 6 threes!!!!)

There's guys in this draft nobody's talking about who like darn good to me. Jamaal Franklin can hoop.

I don't know about BPA.

I do know the Wizards could use Len. I know they could use McDermott. Lorenzo Brown impressed me against Maryland. If Ruz likes Trey Burke, I like him to at least be solid. Nobody's talking about Nate Woltjers, but he can play, too.

Sorry for the rant, but I think this draft is going to be somewhat like 1984. Goubert or Austin might be the Sam Perkins type players. Those players above were really good. I think this draft has a bunch of really good players.

Personally, I said needs of the team should be put foremost. Pick a good player, too. Who got the better player in the draft above between John Stockton and Alvin Robertson? I can tell you that Robertson did once record a quadruple double! I think Malone with Stockton was a devastatingly good pairing. Would Stockton have been a better pick for San Antonio, who took Roberson? Sam Perkins went before Barkley, and I recall Perkins having quite a bit of playoff success for a team that needed his defense and perimeter shooting. But he was no Barkley. However, I am pretty sure Sam was considered BPA over Barkley in the same way a couple years later Brad Daugherty was drafted ahead of Len Bias.

I rant, but I don't understand BPA that well.