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Official 2013 Draft Thread - Part I

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Post#1276 Re: Official 2013 Draft Thread - Part I
Fri Feb 22, 2013 5:13 pm by Super2477

by AFM on Fri Feb 22, 2013 4:41 pm

How about Shabazz?


I like his game a lot. His game is a little PP34 and Harden. I wonder could he coexist with Beal and WAll though
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Post#1277 Re: Official 2013 Draft Thread - Part I
Fri Feb 22, 2013 5:17 pm by nate33

stevemcqueen1 wrote:
GhostsOfGil wrote:Beals defense has actually been a pleasant surprise. Here's the short list of rookie guards who had a dRTG under 105 that played 30+ mpg


That is pleasantly surprising and it shows Beal is ahead of the curve. His dRating is better, by far, than MKG's, Lillard's, and Waiters's. Better than Kyrie's last season and this season. Better than Wall's was his first two years.

Drummond has the best ratings in the class but he's not played comparable minutes. Davis has the best ratings in the class among the guys who've played starters minutes and Beal's dRTG is just behind Davis's. You can argue he's been the second best rookie defender in the class.

He works hard on D. He fights through screens and works to stay in front of his man and contest every shot in his area. I think he's got the ability the be a very high perimeter quality defender down the line.

I don't trust the DRtg stat. It's too dependent on the defensive ability of the team as a whole, and team defense is predicated on having good defensive big men. As Exhibit A, I point to Jordan Crawford. Last year he had a DRtg of 110. This year it's 105. Did he really improve defensively? What about John Wall? Last year, it was a 107. This year, a 102. I think the good defensive ratings are primarily due to the presence of Okafor and Nene.

Beal looks to me to be a pretty good defender except when overmatched by size, but I'm unmoved by the use of DRtg to prove it.
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Post#1278 Re: Official 2013 Draft Thread - Part I
Fri Feb 22, 2013 8:23 pm by Nivek

Nate's right INDIVIDUAL drtg isn't a good stat. I wish they'd take it off b-r. It's basically a series of estimates, which have been shown to be not very accurate when compared to hand-tracked data. Better stats for defense are defensive on/off and RAPM.
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Post#1279 Re: Official 2013 Draft Thread - Part I
Fri Feb 22, 2013 8:25 pm by Nivek

AFM wrote:How about Shabazz?


When I ran Shabazz earlier in the season, he graded out as a later lottery pick, if I recall correctly. McLemore rated better. That was a few weeks back, though.
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Post#1280 Re: Official 2013 Draft Thread - Part I
Fri Feb 22, 2013 8:28 pm by Nivek

stevemcqueen1 wrote:
Nivek wrote:Ran the numbers on McDermott. He rates highly -- actually a shade ahead of Porter, BUT without the physical part included. High usage, extremely efficient. Shoots well from everywhere. High 2pt%. Adequate rebounder. I see that DX has him at #46 right now in their mock. Seems like he'd be a good pickup in the 2nd round, depending how his measurements go. Seems like a future role player for the Spurs.


Have you already run the numbers on Zeller? If so, what do they say?


It was a few weeks ago, and it didn't incude any physical attributes, but he had a score consistent with being a #1 overall pick in most drafts.
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Post#1281 Re: Official 2013 Draft Thread - Part I
Fri Feb 22, 2013 8:29 pm by stevemcqueen1

True nate, but that's the nature of defense in general. To play well you have to be able to switch and help out and trust that your teammates will be on the same page. Plus the great defenders will take some gambles to make big plays when they sense the opportunity is there but you need good teammates to help you out.

dRTG is telling when the number is really high IMO. Defensive win shares is another good metric to combine to try and create a picture through the numbers to match what you see on the court. Most of Beal's win share production has come from the defensive side.
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Post#1282 Re: Official 2013 Draft Thread - Part I
Fri Feb 22, 2013 8:34 pm by Nivek

Defensive win shares is based on individual drtg. The team part of iDrtg is okay in a theoretical way. The problem with idrtg is the inaccuracy in assinging individual responsibility for stops and defensive possessions.
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Post#1283 Re: Official 2013 Draft Thread - Part I
Fri Feb 22, 2013 8:37 pm by stevemcqueen1

Nivek wrote:It was a few weeks ago, and it didn't incude any physical attributes, but he had a score consistent with being a #1 overall pick in most drafts.


Wow! I don't know how big a factor physical attributes are. What if you assume Zeller has physical attributes about like Joakim Noah? Maybe a little faster? Off hand, do you think that would negatively effect his rating?

Just from the eye test he looks like he's got pretty good physical attributes. He's a true 7 footer that's a pretty good leaper, likes to play above the rim. Looks like he has quick feet. Runs the floor extremely well.

I'm a fan of him. I'm hoping we come away with either him or Noel.
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Post#1284 Re: Official 2013 Draft Thread - Part I
Fri Feb 22, 2013 8:39 pm by stevemcqueen1

Nivek wrote:Defensive win shares is based on individual drtg. The team part of iDrtg is okay in a theoretical way. The problem with idrtg is the inaccuracy in assinging individual responsibility for stops and defensive possessions.


I see what you mean. Sounds like a similar problem for the sacks allowed stat in the NFL. Who tracks the responsibility for each possession?
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Post#1285 Re: Official 2013 Draft Thread - Part I
Fri Feb 22, 2013 9:08 pm by Nivek

In YODA I have statistical measures and then the physical stuff and a section I call "intangibles." I've attempted to calibrate the measures so that neither production nor physical tools is overwhelmed. I go back and forth on the physical stuff. Sometimes I think it's too big a factor, other times I think it doesn't carry enough weight. What i've found is little relationship between any physical attribute and success in the NBA.

Re: Zeller. Please remind me on Monday. Crazy busy weekend, and I know I won't get to it before then. I don't remember Noah's scores. I sorta remember he came out as a good athlete. If Zeller is that good an athlete, he'll carry a high rating, I think.
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Post#1286 Re: Official 2013 Draft Thread - Part I
Fri Feb 22, 2013 10:00 pm by Ruzious

stevemcqueen1 wrote:
Nivek wrote:It was a few weeks ago, and it didn't incude any physical attributes, but he had a score consistent with being a #1 overall pick in most drafts.


Wow! I don't know how big a factor physical attributes are. What if you assume Zeller has physical attributes about like Joakim Noah? Maybe a little faster? Off hand, do you think that would negatively effect his rating?

Just from the eye test he looks like he's got pretty good physical attributes. He's a true 7 footer that's a pretty good leaper, likes to play above the rim. Looks like he has quick feet. Runs the floor extremely well.

I'm a fan of him. I'm hoping we come away with either him or Noel.

Glad to hear Zeller has that YODA rating before physical attributes. His length is the only thing that's a legit issue, imo - and I have seen that be a limiting factor, but I'm with you - he's still #2 on my list. I love the way he plays.
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Post#1287 Re: Official 2013 Draft Thread - Part I
Fri Feb 22, 2013 10:26 pm by stevemcqueen1

Ruzious wrote:Glad to hear Zeller has that YODA rating before physical attributes. His length is the only thing that's a legit issue, imo - and I have seen that be a limiting factor, but I'm with you - he's still #2 on my list. I love the way he plays.


I love the way he plays too. Superb feel for the game. He doesn't look like a typical freak athlete NBA star type. But neither do a lot of good players in the NBA, Kyrie Irving and James Harden and Carmelo Anthony for example.

I don't think his length will limit him too much on offense except he does have that low release point on his face up jumper. But Blake Griffin isn't a very long player and it doesn't limit him all that much either as a scorer or defender. Although Blake does have ridiculous leaping ability to make up for his lack of length on defense.

I think his length will mainly be a factor on the glass and in contesting shots outside of the lane. He's been a terrific defender in college and I think it's a tribute to his cognizance and his ability to come up with steals and cover a surprising amount of territory. He could fashion himself into a good NBA positional defender by getting stronger.

I'm feeling good about him as my #2 for us. Watching Oak play tonight, it's clear the impact having a good center has. We need to have a credible plan to replace him when he leaves. And if we do have to let Wall walk and rebuild from scratch, it sure would be nice to have an excellent center already on hand.

This is a big man year. There are at least four or five centers who could potentially start in the class. It might be several years before this kind of opportunity comes up again. I would love to get one of the top two.
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Post#1288 Re: Official 2013 Draft Thread - Part I
Fri Feb 22, 2013 10:39 pm by Chocolate City Jordanaire

Nivek wrote:Ran the numbers on McDermott. He rates highly -- actually a shade ahead of Porter, BUT without the physical part included. High usage, extremely efficient. Shoots well from everywhere. High 2pt%. Adequate rebounder. I see that DX has him at #46 right now in their mock. Seems like he'd be a good pickup in the 2nd round, depending how his measurements go. Seems like a future role player for the Spurs.


With a team with Wall, Beal, and bruisers you don't need athletes you need more shooters.

The Wizards could draft a guy like McDermott as the anti-Jan Vesely and put them both in together off the bench because both are excellent moving without the ball. Both have high basketball IQs and neither hurt a team.

**** Vesely has a Shelvin Mack quality in that no matter how bad the guy appears to play the team he's on does better when he is on the court. Jan is a net plus in points per 100 possessions on vs off the court this season and last. I have a feeling high basketball IQ players have that effect on their teams. *****

McDermott is a player I can't see hurting a team because he takes the ball inside and scores outside. He would really help the Wizards IMO because he is a high basketball IQ player with the skill set the Wizards could use. Any team could use a player like McDermott IMO.
1. Game 1 win over Chicago was NOT a fluke.
2. Bulls best hope is for the officials to keep on homering.
3. Attention on Nene will open driving lanes for Wall.
4. Wizards should win game 2, rather convincingly.
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Post#1289 Re: Official 2013 Draft Thread - Part I
Fri Feb 22, 2013 10:53 pm by Chocolate City Jordanaire

Nivek wrote:In YODA I have statistical measures and then the physical stuff and a section I call "intangibles." I've attempted to calibrate the measures so that neither production nor physical tools is overwhelmed. I go back and forth on the physical stuff. Sometimes I think it's too big a factor, other times I think it doesn't carry enough weight. What i've found is little relationship between any physical attribute and success in the NBA.

Re: Zeller. Please remind me on Monday. Crazy busy weekend, and I know I won't get to it before then. I don't remember Noah's scores. I sorta remember he came out as a good athlete. If Zeller is that good an athlete, he'll carry a high rating, I think.


Sometimes NCAA studs like Adam Morrison or even Morris Almond put up big numbers despite lacking some athleticism, but their great NCAA success does not translate to the pros.

Joseph Treutlein, a scout with Draft Express, was right when he shared with me his assessment of Almond. I like to be right and to more than occasionally remind folks what I was right about but a lot of times I am wrong, too. Joe T emailed me back after I emailed him proclaiming how great Morris Almond would be. Seems to me I might have been right about Millsap, though. :lol: Joe T said Morris wasn't all that athletic. It took me something like 5 years, and Mo being on the Wizards, to physically see the difference in quickness and explosiveness between Mo and someone like Cartier Martin. I got the feeling Mo was nervous, but not naturally as quick/strong and that's the entire explanation for why he doesn't dominate the NBA. I don't know if that's right or not. I think Morris had to alter his shot mechanics because of the quickness and athleticism of NBA defenders.

(That said I still think the guy can play! He's not quite as good as Martin, I don't think, but I don't know.)

Nivek, I think it must be a whole lot more art than science when it comes to predicting whose physical limitations will prevent them from excelling at the next level and whose won't.
1. Game 1 win over Chicago was NOT a fluke.
2. Bulls best hope is for the officials to keep on homering.
3. Attention on Nene will open driving lanes for Wall.
4. Wizards should win game 2, rather convincingly.
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Post#1290 Re: Official 2013 Draft Thread - Part I
Fri Feb 22, 2013 10:58 pm by Chocolate City Jordanaire

I got off track on Morris Almond and athleticism …

I think Cody Zeller is going to be a really good NBA player. Charles Smith out of Pitt and Tom Chambers are the players Cody reminds me off. He doesn't have Chambers' perimeter game but Cody does attack the rim. Zeller's got a lot of fluidity at his height.

I don't know how he's going to be defensively, but C Zeller will score a lot of points in the NBA.
1. Game 1 win over Chicago was NOT a fluke.
2. Bulls best hope is for the officials to keep on homering.
3. Attention on Nene will open driving lanes for Wall.
4. Wizards should win game 2, rather convincingly.
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Post#1291 Re: Official 2013 Draft Thread - Part I
Sat Feb 23, 2013 7:39 am by Ruzious

One player who's fallen out of top 10 consideration imo is Isaiah Austin. 3 straight bad games when he needed to step up. I was hoping he'd develop his offense and become a Chris Bosh type, but that's not going to happen. The 7' beanpole is simply just not that good with the ball in his hands and doesn't do a whole lot on defense.
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Post#1292 Re: Official 2013 Draft Thread - Part I
Sat Feb 23, 2013 8:34 am by BruceO

how does olynnk (sp) rate in yoda? his per last i checked was a ridiculous 39. I hear he's slow but very innovative.
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Post#1293 Re: Official 2013 Draft Thread - Part I
Sat Feb 23, 2013 8:45 am by Nivek

Chocolate City Jordanaire wrote:
Nivek wrote:In YODA I have statistical measures and then the physical stuff and a section I call "intangibles." I've attempted to calibrate the measures so that neither production nor physical tools is overwhelmed. I go back and forth on the physical stuff. Sometimes I think it's too big a factor, other times I think it doesn't carry enough weight. What i've found is little relationship between any physical attribute and success in the NBA.

Re: Zeller. Please remind me on Monday. Crazy busy weekend, and I know I won't get to it before then. I don't remember Noah's scores. I sorta remember he came out as a good athlete. If Zeller is that good an athlete, he'll carry a high rating, I think.


Sometimes NCAA studs like Adam Morrison or even Morris Almond put up big numbers despite lacking some athleticism, but their great NCAA success does not translate to the pros.

Joseph Treutlein, a scout with Draft Express, was right when he shared with me his assessment of Almond. I like to be right and to more than occasionally remind folks what I was right about but a lot of times I am wrong, too. Joe T emailed me back after I emailed him proclaiming how great Morris Almond would be. Seems to me I might have been right about Millsap, though. :lol: Joe T said Morris wasn't all that athletic. It took me something like 5 years, and Mo being on the Wizards, to physically see the difference in quickness and explosiveness between Mo and someone like Cartier Martin. I got the feeling Mo was nervous, but not naturally as quick/strong and that's the entire explanation for why he doesn't dominate the NBA. I don't know if that's right or not. I think Morris had to alter his shot mechanics because of the quickness and athleticism of NBA defenders.

(That said I still think the guy can play! He's not quite as good as Martin, I don't think, but I don't know.)

Nivek, I think it must be a whole lot more art than science when it comes to predicting whose physical limitations will prevent them from excelling at the next level and whose won't.


The names you mention are interesting. Morrison had a bad rating in YODA. I don't remember Almond's off thr top of my head. Millsap I remember because he had a very high rating -- a top 5 pick score, if I remember right.

If a player's athleticism is meaningful, it generally shows up in their production.
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Post#1294 Re: Official 2013 Draft Thread - Part I
Sat Feb 23, 2013 9:49 am by Chocolate City Jordanaire

The consensus the year Millsap came out was that Shelden Wlliams was the top PF/C. He went 5th and Millsap went 47. I remember specifically saying Millsap should be picked in the lottery and that he was better than Williams, Alexander Johnson, and very much better than Pecherov. I thought Millsap was a no-brainer pick for the Wizards at 17. What shocked me was Millsap slipped all the way to #47.

I was certain about Millsap because not only did he break rebounding records belonging to Tim Duncan among other great stars, and not only did he lead the nation in rebounding three straight seasons, Millsap also had very high blocks and steals at LA Tech. With that, he also scored well against NCAA powerhouse programs. Millsap's athleticism was on display with everything he could do on the basketball court in NCAA play.

To not see how good Millsap was made me seriously question a lot of NBA GMs and scouts. Just like with Faried, how could they NOT SEE how good Kenneth Faried would be?

Nivek, this year's Millsap/Faried player, who I think will be drafted far too low: Andre Roberson

He's projected to go in round two. When you have the time I wonder how YODA rates Roberson? I think Roberson is a lottery-level athlete. Colorado has defeated teams like Arizona and Oregon, and Roberson is a BEAST on the boards. Roberson is a tremendous defender who I think, like Kawhi Leonard, can guard on the perimeter and make the transition from NCAA PF to NBA SF. I hope the Wizards at least work out Roberson, but I know they won't.
1. Game 1 win over Chicago was NOT a fluke.
2. Bulls best hope is for the officials to keep on homering.
3. Attention on Nene will open driving lanes for Wall.
4. Wizards should win game 2, rather convincingly.
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Post#1295 Re: Official 2013 Draft Thread - Part I
Sat Feb 23, 2013 10:03 am by Chocolate City Jordanaire

I lot of guys can play in this draft. Arizona State's Carrick Felix is intriguing.

Image

Looking forward, Felix is an intriguing prospect due to his physical tools and groundwork of two-way skills, but he's definitely a late bloomer who still is rough around the edges in most areas despite turning 22 before his senior season. Still, he's shown a very steep learning curve in the past three years and that, combined with his high motor and athletic abilities make him a player a team could be willing to invest development in.


From DraftExpress.com http://www.draftexpress.com#ixzz2LjaqNvFC
http://www.draftexpress.com

I bet his draft stock would be through the roof had he been a Dukie.
1. Game 1 win over Chicago was NOT a fluke.
2. Bulls best hope is for the officials to keep on homering.
3. Attention on Nene will open driving lanes for Wall.
4. Wizards should win game 2, rather convincingly.
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