Official 2013 Draft Thread - Part I

[Ruzious]

One player who's fallen out of top 10 consideration imo is Isaiah Austin. 3 straight bad games when he needed to step up. I was hoping he'd develop his offense and become a Chris Bosh type, but that's not going to happen. The 7' beanpole is simply just not that good with the ball in his hands and doesn't do a whole lot on defense.

[BruceO]

how does olynnk (sp) rate in yoda? his per last i checked was a ridiculous 39. I hear he's slow but very innovative.

[Nivek]

In YODA I have statistical measures and then the physical stuff and a section I call "intangibles." I've attempted to calibrate the measures so that neither production nor physical tools is overwhelmed. I go back and forth on the physical stuff. Sometimes I think it's too big a factor, other times I think it doesn't carry enough weight. What i've found is little relationship between any physical attribute and success in the NBA.

Re: Zeller. Please remind me on Monday. Crazy busy weekend, and I know I won't get to it before then. I don't remember Noah's scores. I sorta remember he came out as a good athlete. If Zeller is that good an athlete, he'll carry a high rating, I think.

Sometimes NCAA studs like Adam Morrison or even Morris Almond put up big numbers despite lacking some athleticism, but their great NCAA success does not translate to the pros.

Joseph Treutlein, a scout with Draft Express, was right when he shared with me his assessment of Almond. I like to be right and to more than occasionally remind folks what I was right about but a lot of times I am wrong, too. Joe T emailed me back after I emailed him proclaiming how great Morris Almond would be. Seems to me I might have been right about Millsap, though. Joe T said Morris wasn't all that athletic. It took me something like 5 years, and Mo being on the Wizards, to physically see the difference in quickness and explosiveness between Mo and someone like Cartier Martin. I got the feeling Mo was nervous, but not naturally as quick/strong and that's the entire explanation for why he doesn't dominate the NBA. I don't know if that's right or not. I think Morris had to alter his shot mechanics because of the quickness and athleticism of NBA defenders.

(That said I still think the guy can play! He's not quite as good as Martin, I don't think, but I don't know.)

Nivek, I think it must be a whole lot more art than science when it comes to predicting whose physical limitations will prevent them from excelling at the next level and whose won't.

The names you mention are interesting. Morrison had a bad rating in YODA. I don't remember Almond's off thr top of my head. Millsap I remember because he had a very high rating -- a top 5 pick score, if I remember right.

If a player's athleticism is meaningful, it generally shows up in their production.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

The consensus the year Millsap came out was that Shelden Wlliams was the top PF/C. He went 5th and Millsap went 47. I remember specifically saying Millsap should be picked in the lottery and that he was better than Williams, Alexander Johnson, and very much better than Pecherov. I thought Millsap was a no-brainer pick for the Wizards at 17. What shocked me was Millsap slipped all the way to #47.

I was certain about Millsap because not only did he break rebounding records belonging to Tim Duncan among other great stars, and not only did he lead the nation in rebounding three straight seasons, Millsap also had very high blocks and steals at LA Tech. With that, he also scored well against NCAA powerhouse programs. Millsap's athleticism was on display with everything he could do on the basketball court in NCAA play.

To not see how good Millsap was made me seriously question a lot of NBA GMs and scouts. Just like with Faried, how could they NOT SEE how good Kenneth Faried would be?

Nivek, this year's Millsap/Faried player, who I think will be drafted far too low: Andre Roberson

He's projected to go in round two. When you have the time I wonder how YODA rates Roberson? I think Roberson is a lottery-level athlete. Colorado has defeated teams like Arizona and Oregon, and Roberson is a BEAST on the boards. Roberson is a tremendous defender who I think, like Kawhi Leonard, can guard on the perimeter and make the transition from NCAA PF to NBA SF. I hope the Wizards at least work out Roberson, but I know they won't.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

I lot of guys can play in this draft. Arizona State's Carrick Felix is intriguing.

Looking forward, Felix is an intriguing prospect due to his physical tools and groundwork of two-way skills, but he's definitely a late bloomer who still is rough around the edges in most areas despite turning 22 before his senior season. Still, he's shown a very steep learning curve in the past three years and that, combined with his high motor and athletic abilities make him a player a team could be willing to invest development in.

From DraftExpress.com http://www.draftexpress.com#ixzz2LjaqNvFC
http://www.draftexpress.com

I bet his draft stock would be through the roof had he been a Dukie.

[SUPERBALLMAN]

Looking at some mocks... kinda interesting http://www.nbadraft.net has Wizards taking Zeller #3, while Noel drops to Cleveland at 4. Draftexpress still has Noel going 1st.

[SUPERBALLMAN]

What do you all think about Glenn Robinson III ?

From NBADraft.net :

NBA Comparson: Andre Iguodala

Strengths: Not to be confused with NFL's RG3, "GR3" is an above the rim athlete with star potential ... Smooth. Makes everything look easy. Wing player who attacks the basket and makes highlight finishes ... Quick, explosive leaping ability. Gets to the rim in a hurry ... Has a good feel for the game and solid perimeter skills ...Versatile wing with the ISO ability to create shots off the dribble as well as the vision to find teammates ... Runs the floor well and has the fluidity and body control to make acrobatic plays at the rim in transition ... Surprising all around skills for a freshman ... NBA ready body. Focused. Shows strong maturity, both mentally and physically, for a first year college player ... Good decision maker ... Very efficient scorer. 59% from the floor ... Competitive ... Unselfish. Team player. Excellent form on his shot, and shows range to knock down the college three ball consistently. Father was known for being a deadly pull up shooter, and GR3 shows potential to develop the same skill ... Understands spacing. Adept scorer with the ability to find cracks in the defense and moves well to get open ... Solid defender. Gets low, good fundamentals and effort ... Slashes to the basket well for rebounds. Understands positioning and boxing out ... Physical strength and explosiveness allow him to out-rebound bigger opponents. Good anticipation. Very good second leaper allows him to grab a board and make a follow up dunk ... Good length. Wingspan likely in the 6'10 range ...

[nate33]

Porter having a monster night against Syracuse. He has 26 of the team's 41 points. He also has 7 boards, 2 assists, 4 steals and 0 turnovers. The way he moves so smoothly and effortlessly kinda reminds me of Scottie Pippen. He doesn't have Pippen's handle, but other than that, they are quite similar, only Porter shoots better.

[jivelikenice]

How about we tell the nba we bypass the #1 pick as long as we're guaranteed Porter

[SUPERBALLMAN]

At this point I'm just expecting Porter to be a Wizard next season. Just seems almost too good a fit. His skillset, his demeanor & personality. Local player & Leonsis a big Gtown fan icing on the cake.

[hands11]

Porter having a monster night against Syracuse. He has 26 of the team's 41 points. He also has 7 boards, 2 assists, 4 steals and 0 turnovers. The way he moves so smoothly and effortlessly kinda reminds me of Scottie Pippen. He doesn't have Pippen's handle, but other than that, they are quite similar, only Porter shoots better.

Yeep. And that was against the 8th seed. Not bad.

Withey was POTG though they only played TCU.

Plenty of targets in this draft. Just have to find the right fit like Beal was.

Gotta find that talented player that fits who is smart, mature and driven. Seems there are several in this draft.

I question if McLemore makes that list. He hasn't made mine so far. But I will keep an open mind. Same with Shabazz. They just don't fit the mold I like which is more toward players like

Otto, Victor, CJM, Withey, maybe Zeller. Maybe Bennett. I need to watch more.

Go for the can't miss pieces that will fits in and can produce in their first year if needed. Solid floor with upside.

Clearly a center makes the most sense with the top pick. I gotta watch more Zeller and Len. Austin reminds me of McGee to much to want to take him. Not sold on Smart at all and we have other needs. If anything, get a vet back up PG or find one in the 2nd.

I don't see them using the pick on Victor which is a shame. He needs to go to a team that will start him and we have Beal. But man I I loved him from the start. Might just need to add him anyway regardless of need.

Otto and Withey would be a good draft. Lots of time to think about it. We will see.

[Earth2Ted]

Porter having a monster night against Syracuse. He has 26 of the team's 41 points. He also has 7 boards, 2 assists, 4 steals and 0 turnovers. The way he moves so smoothly and effortlessly kinda reminds me of Scottie Pippen. He doesn't have Pippen's handle, but other than that, they are quite similar, only Porter shoots better.

Wow. Phenomenal performance in the Carrier Dome against a Syracuse team bringing some serious defensive intensity.

I don't think he's nearly the athlete that Pippen was, but with his length, skill set, and smarts he'd fit very well with Wall, Beal, and Nene (as everyone else is saying).

The question is, does ernie pick Porter or Alex Len?

[Dat2U]

Porter was already in my top 5. Outside of Noel, he's probably my favorite choice. Smart fills out my top 3.

[SUPERBALLMAN]

hands11, agree a Porter/Withey draft would make me happy.

Keep Webster, keep team as currently constructed with those 2 added, and I like it. Wall, Beal, Porter would be a foundation worth building on.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

At this point I'm just expecting Porter to be a Wizard next season. Just seems almost too good a fit. His skillset, his demeanor & personality. Local player & Leonsis a big Gtown fan icing on the cake.

Probably so, SUPERBALLMAN. If it comes down between Zeller, Porter, Len, Smart, and Oladipo …

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ted_Leonsis

Leonsis is currently on the board of directors at Georgetown University, his alma mater.

His daughter, Elle, is a student at Georgetown University.

The good news is Porter would be a very good addition.

I think he makes a ton of sense for the Wizards.