Countdown to Ernie Grunfeld Firing

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

When the bottom line is affected, Ted Leonsis will make a move.

[Nivek]

The other thread went off course.

Enough is enough.

10th season as GM.

No playoffs since 2008.

Squandered lotto picks

Wasted 2nd round picks

Knee jerk trades

Mediocrity even when the Wizards were a playoff team in a WEAK Eastern conference.

Why can't we have a real GM?

You left some live rounds in the chamber. During Ernie's tenure, the Wizards have compiled:

- the league's 3rd worst winning percentage (.392)
- the league's 2nd worst SRS (combination of scoring margin and strength of schedule) -- only Charlotte has been worse
- Out of his 9 full seasons as GM, they've won 26 or fewer games 5 times
- They've won 26 or fewer games in each of the past 4 seasons

Just think:

- Mike Brown: okay job last season; rough start this season -- FIRED.
- Ernie Grunfeld: one of the league's 3 worst franchises over the past decade -- CONTRACT EXTENSION.

[fishercob]

There is no chance that EG gets fired this year. EG's biggest mistake of the offseason was the Okariza acquisition, which was something that Ted clearly signed off on. If you throw out that blunder, (which I certainly wouldn't, but Ted will,) the rest of his offseason was decent. He drafted Beal and signed Webster for cheap. Squandering 2nd round picks is rarely a fireable offense.

Don't get me wrong. I want him fired. I'm just sure it won't happen.

Ted said high lottery in "unacceptable." If we start something hellacious like 3-19, I can see Ted giving Ernie the axe.

At some point someone is going to point out that Ernie's decisions have meant us missing out on the likes of Faried, Kawhi, Crowder, Scola, Brand, Haywood, Mayo, Jarrett Jack, Kirilenko, etc., and hopefully the light bulb goes on for Ted.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

At some point I really do expect to speak to Ted Leonsis or Ernie Grunfeld. Ted's people should know I am 100% serious when I say I have known what the Wizards should do for a long, long time.

I say some hurtful things about Mr. Leonsis for keeping Ernie Grunfeld. I have said this owner is a bad one because of his loyalty to Grunfeld. I also blame them for repeatedly not treating players right. I wouldn't expect him to like me at all, but he should recognize I love the Wizards and will give the best advice I can. I also want each player to have a successful career.

This season is not lost. However, every game they lose morale goes lower. More and more doubt about Wittman's coaching will arise. He will be the next to get fired. It needn't be that way. Randy is a good coach. He never ends up with talent to coach, but the man gets the most out of his roster. The Wizard roster needs some key subtractions, and the addition of two type players.

They are really close in every game, but the Okafor/Ariza trade and veteran additions created choke points and unnecessary redundancy in their lineup. Playing certain players out of position and keep better players on the bench too long, while losing, is inevitably going to create a very toxic situation. It doesn't need to remain this way.

The biggest problem for Washington is any move they make, EG is likely to not get value in return. Ted needs to bring in a consultant who will see things totally objectively, and who will make some honest suggestions.

[Dat2U]

I'd be shocked if Randy was fired. That would be admitting a mistake, especially if it happens this season. Something Ernie does not do is admit any type of failure. For now, it's the injury excuse and I expect Ernie to ride that as far as it takes him.

Personally I have no problem with Randy. I don't think he's the guy your going to win playoff series with. But that's never been the goal. He's been tasked with just making the team competitive and get to 30+ wins (in my opinion 30+ wins likely means free cake for everyone at the Verizon Center and makes this season a qualified success in the front office's eyes).

I suspect everything will remain status quo unless were not competitive or the losses mount up to the point of embarrassment. If were 9-20, nothing will change, if were 3-26, then Ted will probably start to feel the heat to make a move.

[truwizfan4evr]

I really hope Witt is not fired that just a bail out for Ernie like he do almost every coach we have when we suck. I expect 2 more losses Witt to be fired and that will suck because he's been a very good coach for us.

[rockymac52]

Is there much of a precedent for GMs being fired mid-season in the NBA? Frankly I don't see much of a point of doing so. Especially when we'd most likely just promote an assistant GM from within the organization on an interim status.

[truwizfan4evr]

Is there much of a precedent for GMs being fired mid-season in the NBA? Frankly I don't see much of a point of doing so. Especially when we'd most likely just promote an assistant GM from within the organization on an interim status.

Long as Ernie gone!

[Nivek]

Is there much of a precedent for GMs being fired mid-season in the NBA? Frankly I don't see much of a point of doing so. Especially when we'd most likely just promote an assistant GM from within the organization on an interim status.

In my interactions with the front office, a couple of Ernie's assistants are WAY smarter than he is. I think the team would have been better off with either Tommy Sheppard or Milt Newton running the show.

That said, most of the time coaches and executives are permitted to change teams -- even in-season -- for a promotion. So, the Wiz could fire Ernie and hire Troy Weaver, for example.

The problem with leaving Ernie in place, of course, is that he's the guy making deals for the Wiz until they're able to replace him. I don't think that's a good thing. The sooner he's gone, the better.

[MJ7]

Ernie's Nene trade was the only decent trade he's made in quite some time. Even that's debatable, as Nene is technically overpaid, but produces.

[rockymac52]

Is there much of a precedent for GMs being fired mid-season in the NBA? Frankly I don't see much of a point of doing so. Especially when we'd most likely just promote an assistant GM from within the organization on an interim status.

In my interactions with the front office, a couple of Ernie's assistants are WAY smarter than he is. I think the team would have been better off with either Tommy Sheppard or Milt Newton running the show.

That said, most of the time coaches and executives are permitted to change teams -- even in-season -- for a promotion. So, the Wiz could fire Ernie and hire Troy Weaver, for example.

The problem with leaving Ernie in place, of course, is that he's the guy making deals for the Wiz until they're able to replace him. I don't think that's a good thing. The sooner he's gone, the better.

The problem I see with a mid-season GM firing/hiring is that it wouldn't give the new GM any time to implement his "system" or make any large-scale organization changes. The offseason is the perfect time to do that. Mid-season would be chaotic. Promoting an assistant from within is more plausible in that sense, because even if they see things differently than Grunfeld, chances are that many of their beliefs are similar, and wouldn't require large-scale organizational changes.

I'd still like them to wait until the offseason, or at least after the trade deadline, to make such a move, however. If we're that concerned with Ernie having control over trades in the meantime, then just simply handcuff him and don't sign off on any deals (if you're Ted).

And as far as Wittman, I feel bad for the guy, and I think he's making the most of a really bad situation, but I still don't think he's ideally our coach of the future. If we go on a losing streak that's so bad it demands an organizational change, I think the go-to response in this league is to fire the coach. But the problem is we've fired our coaches too often in years past. Not saying any of them deserved to keep the job, but at some point we just need to slow down and stop changing for the sake of changing, especially when our replacements aren't going to do the job any better. I do NOT want to see Ed Tapscott taking over mid-season again. That was atrocious. Just tough it out this season with Wittman, even if we know we're going to give him the axe. Too much change is often a bad thing.

Bottom line is we're in a really terrible situation on many fronts, and there clearly needs to be multiple significant changes made. I just think the time to do that is in the offseason.

[rockymac52]

Ernie's Nene trade was the only decent trade he's made in quite some time. Even that's debatable, as Nene is technically overpaid, but produces.

It's not helping that he currently isn't even producing, because he has a chronic injury and can't get on the court. Really frustrating these days.

[MJ7]

Ernie's Nene trade was the only decent trade he's made in quite some time. Even that's debatable, as Nene is technically overpaid, but produces.

It's not helping that he currently isn't even producing, because he has a chronic injury and can't get on the court. Really frustrating these days.

Was going for a glass half full approach, but the team is run by Ernie Grunfeld. The glass is shattered, and all that is left are tears and memories.

[rockymac52]

Just to be devil's advocate real quick, in defense of Ernie, and to point out something that's been bothering me for a while...

Please stop arguing that Ernie should be fired because he didn't draft the likes of Paul Millsap, Kenneth Faried, Kawhi Leonard, Jae Crowder, or DeJuan Blair (or anybody else we didn't take that is now good).

Yes, I understand that several people on this board were big advocates for these players before the draft and before they proved to be good NBA players. But please try to understand this, or at least not to ignore this... it wasn't just Wizards fans on this board that wanted those players. Basketball "stat-heads" across the country were pointing to these same guys. They were hyping up these players months in advance of the draft as well, saying that they would be good in the NBA and that they were very undervalued. They weren't just saying these guys would be good picks for the Wizards, they were saying they'd be good picks for ANY NBA team.

So don't blame Ernie for not taking them. Blame GMs league-wide for being stubborn to a certain extent, and possibly being slow to accept advanced basketball statistics/analytics. This tide is turning in the NBA these days, and teams are slowly starting to accept the value of these advanced metrics. It's not just Ernie who missed on these guys.

Literally every single team passed on Paul Millsap, Jae Crowder, and DeJuan Blair (maybe there's 1 or 2 teams that didn't have a draft pick those years and technically didn't pass on them, but they clearly would have). So don't blame Ernie for that.

Let's look at the 2011 draft. The Wizards had the 6th pick, the 18th pick, and the 32nd pick. With those picks we selected Jan Vesely, Chris Singleton, and Shelvin Mack, respectively. First of all, I'd like to point out that it honestly is simply too early to label any of these players as "busts" yet, because they're all young and haven't even played 82 games yet. We can have our doubts about any/all of these guys, but there's still plenty of time for them to develop and improve. I'm not saying I expect any/all of these guys to improve dramatically and become good NBA players necessarily, but I just wanted to point out that the fact of the matter is that it really is too early to close the book on their careers, and we can't ignore that.

The two players in the 2011 draft that everybody (note: again, not just Wizards fans) likes to point out as steals are Kawhi Leonard and Kenneth Faried. Leonard was drafted 15th overall by the Pacers and was immediately traded to the Spurs for the 42nd pick (Davis Bertans) and George Hill. Faried was drafted 22nd overall by the Nuggets.

That means 12 other teams (13 if you count the Pacers) (and 2 teams TWICE) passed on Leonard. Some of those teams probably made the right choice there, because they drafted a player better than Leonard (ex: Kyrie Irving). But there's plenty of players drafted after Kyrie (1st overall) and before Leonard that aren't as good as Leonard (arguably ALL of them). So I guess the Timberwolves, Jazz, Cavaliers, Raptors, Wizards, Kings, Pistons, Bobcats, Bucks, Warriors, Suns, Rockets, and Pacers all have idiot GMs too, right? Honestly, to be fair, I do think the vast majority of those teams do actually have terrible GMs, but certainly not all of them are (see: Daryl Morey).

Then for Faried, in addition to those teams I already mentioned, you can add the 76ers, Knicks, and Blazers to the list of teams that made a mistake by passing on him.

My point is, it's not just Ernie. It's the vast MAJORITY of NBA GMs that passed on these guys. Even if several people on this Wizards board and many NBA experts around the Internet were advocating drafting these guys higher than they were expected to go, the reality is most NBA GMs didn't listen/agree. Does this mean there are people out there on the Internet who do, in fact, know more about how to manage an NBA team than the current NBA GMs? Quite possibly, yeah. But we can't only look at our ("our" meaning the stat-heads who wanted to draft these guys) successes and ignore our mistakes. Because even the best of us have been wrong about guys. So why can't NBA GMs be wrong about guys too? We can't win 'em all. For every A+ draft where we steal Faried late in the 1st, we'd get an F for drafting Morris Almond top 10 (no offense and nothing personal, CCJ, it was just the first one that came to mind).

With that said, yes, I think NBA GMs (and Ernie) need to be more accepting of advanced basketball statistics, because in recent years they've clearly predicted the successes of several undervalued prospects, and more often than not. But I'm just saying, 1. it's not just Ernie, and 2. it's not a perfect science.

But with that said, in the grand scheme of things, it's hard to ignore how long Ernie's had the job and how little success our organization has had in that time, and I'd support going in a new direction from a management standpoint this offseason.

[Nivek]

Is there much of a precedent for GMs being fired mid-season in the NBA? Frankly I don't see much of a point of doing so. Especially when we'd most likely just promote an assistant GM from within the organization on an interim status.

In my interactions with the front office, a couple of Ernie's assistants are WAY smarter than he is. I think the team would have been better off with either Tommy Sheppard or Milt Newton running the show.

That said, most of the time coaches and executives are permitted to change teams -- even in-season -- for a promotion. So, the Wiz could fire Ernie and hire Troy Weaver, for example.

The problem with leaving Ernie in place, of course, is that he's the guy making deals for the Wiz until they're able to replace him. I don't think that's a good thing. The sooner he's gone, the better.

The problem I see with a mid-season GM firing/hiring is that it wouldn't give the new GM any time to implement his "system" or make any large-scale organization changes. The offseason is the perfect time to do that. Mid-season would be chaotic. Promoting an assistant from within is more plausible in that sense, because even if they see things differently than Grunfeld, chances are that many of their beliefs are similar, and wouldn't require large-scale organizational changes.

I'd still like them to wait until the offseason, or at least after the trade deadline, to make such a move, however. If we're that concerned with Ernie having control over trades in the meantime, then just simply handcuff him and don't sign off on any deals (if you're Ted).

And as far as Wittman, I feel bad for the guy, and I think he's making the most of a really bad situation, but I still don't think he's ideally our coach of the future. If we go on a losing streak that's so bad it demands an organizational change, I think the go-to response in this league is to fire the coach. But the problem is we've fired our coaches too often in years past. Not saying any of them deserved to keep the job, but at some point we just need to slow down and stop changing for the sake of changing, especially when our replacements aren't going to do the job any better. I do NOT want to see Ed Tapscott taking over mid-season again. That was atrocious. Just tough it out this season with Wittman, even if we know we're going to give him the axe. Too much change is often a bad thing.

Bottom line is we're in a really terrible situation on many fronts, and there clearly needs to be multiple significant changes made. I just think the time to do that is in the offseason.

I understand your reasoning. It makes some sense. My thinking is that if you decide Ernie needs to go, AND you can bring in a real long-term replacement, there's no point in waiting. The new guy might not be able to implement system changes in terms of how the team plays, but he could immediately start revamping the front office's approach to talent evaluation, begin pro/college/international scouting, and so on.

Plus, handcuffing Ernie could prevent the team from making moves that might be to its benefit. If you can't trust the guy to make roster moves, I think you just move him out.

[fishercob]

rocky, I disagree on two points you're making.

1) Timing: Kevin alluded to it, but waiting until the off season will just put our new guy further behind than he would be if he could get in now and roll up his sleeves to see what he can do with this mess. Ernie is in love with all of his draft picks. We need a new guy to come and make a sober assessment of the entire -- yes, enitre -- roster and find out if there's a market for anyone beyond what he determines their worth to be. Is there a team out there who loves Seraphin and is willing to trade more for him than we truly think he is or will be worth? Then make that move.

One thing that is clear is that our methodology of player evaluation is in need of complete overhaul. A new GM should be working on that NOW, so when decisions need to be made in the draft and free agency they new systems are in place.

2) "It's not just Ernie's fault; everyone else missed on these guys." This to me is further indictment of Ernie than it is a mitigation of his shortcomings. This says there were market inefficiencies to exploit and instead of doing so, we were exploited. The goal isn't to not be worse than the conventional wisdom. The goal is to WIN -- to beat the other guys; to be smarter, more creative, more opportunistic. I just don't see that undying hunger from Ernie -- or close.

[rockymac52]

rocky, I disagree on two points you're making.

1) Timing: Kevin alluded to it, but waiting until the off season will just put our new guy further behind than he would be if he could get in now and roll up his sleeves to see what he can do with this mess. Ernie is in love with all of his draft picks. We need a new guy to come and make a sober assessment of the entire -- yes, enitre -- roster and find out if there's a market for anyone beyond what he determines their worth to be. Is there a team out there who loves Seraphin and is willing to trade more for him than we truly think he is or will be worth? Then make that move.

One thing that is clear is that our methodology of player evaluation is in need of complete overhaul. A new GM should be working on that NOW, so when decisions need to be made in the draft and free agency they new systems are in place.

2) "It's not just Ernie's fault; everyone else missed on these guys." This to me is further indictment of Ernie than it is a mitigation of his shortcomings. This says there were market inefficiencies to exploit and instead of doing so, we were exploited. The goal isn't to not be worse than the conventional wisdom. The goal is to WIN -- to beat the other guys; to be smarter, more creative, more opportunistic. I just don't see that undying hunger from Ernie -- or close.

Great points. I agree. With my post about everybody else missing out on those guys as well, I tried to make it clear that it wasn't necessarily an excuse for Ernie at all, but it was worth mentioning. To be a championship contender, we have to be considerably better than the rest of the NBA teams and their front offices. No doubt we SHOULD have drafted those guys.

I also agree with what you're saying about bringing in the new GM as soon as possible. Like you said, if we're convinced Ernie is not getting the job done, then a change needs to be made. And it's illogical to keep him around for the rest of the season if we know we're going to fire him anyways. There are certainly trades to be made between now and then. And you're right, it does give the new GM more time to implement his organizational changes, even if it takes a longer period of time to do so than it would if he was hired during the offseason. It may take longer to make all of the changes, but most likely, they will all be made before the season ends, and thus, before they would have been made had we waited until the offseason.

My concern, is the practicality of a mid-season GM firing/hiring. Is there any precedent of that happening in the NBA? I'm curious. And if so, was the new GM hired on an interim basis originally, and if so, did he ultimately end up the "permanent" GM? Was the new GM hired from within, or brought in from another organization, or elsewhere? These are the questions I'd love to get an answer to.

My gut feeling is that while it may be possible and legal to hire a new GM mid-season from another organization, it would be very hard to do. Once the postseason and offseason begin, it's an easy time for teams to make front office and coaching changes. Everyone is available, in a sense. Now, if a GM position opened up mid-season because we fired Ernie, then surely some assistant GMs around the league would be interested in the job, and they might make some extra time in their schedules to meet with us and consider the possibility. But it seems almost impractical. So, again, any information on any precedent of this?

[closg00]

rocky, I disagree on two points you're making.

1) Timing: Kevin alluded to it, but waiting until the off season will just put our new guy further behind than he would be if he could get in now and roll up his sleeves to see what he can do with this mess. Ernie is in love with all of his draft picks. We need a new guy to come and make a sober assessment of the entire -- yes, enitre -- roster and find out if there's a market for anyone beyond what he determines their worth to be. Is there a team out there who loves Seraphin and is willing to trade more for him than we truly think he is or will be worth? Then make that move.

One thing that is clear is that our methodology of player evaluation is in need of complete overhaul. A new GM should be working on that NOW, so when decisions need to be made in the draft and free agency they new systems are in place.

2) "It's not just Ernie's fault; everyone else missed on these guys." This to me is further indictment of Ernie than it is a mitigation of his shortcomings. This says there were market inefficiencies to exploit and instead of doing so, we were exploited. The goal isn't to not be worse than the conventional wisdom. The goal is to WIN -- to beat the other guys; to be smarter, more creative, more opportunistic. I just don't see that undying hunger from Ernie -- or close.

Excellent post, on Rico's behalf I give you a

[MikeTheKid]

GRUNFELD MUST GO!!!

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lypec7N-9i0[/youtube]

[payitforward]

Just to be devil's advocate ...

Please stop arguing that Ernie should be fired because he didn't draft the likes of Paul Millsap, Kenneth Faried, Kawhi Leonard, Jae Crowder, or DeJuan Blair (or anybody else we didn't take that is now good).

s... it wasn't just Wizards fans on this board that wanted those players. Basketball "stat-heads" across the country were pointing to these same guys. ...

So don't blame Ernie for not taking them. Blame GMs league-wide... It's not just Ernie who missed on these guys.

But ...it's hard to ignore how long Ernie's had the job and how little success our organization has had....

No one has said Ernie should be fired because he didn't draft e.g. Kenneth Faried. He should be fired because of what you point out in your last sentence -- his record shows that he's no good at his job, plain and simple.

What people have said about Faried et. al. is that we'd be a better team if we'd drafted them. If we were a better team, a good team, maybe there'd be no reason to fire Ernie. Hence....

A simple example: Go take a look at how Chandler Parsons is developing. He was taken a few picks after Shelvin Mack. Of the players drafted after Shelvin in 2011, a dozen or more are playing in NBA rotations. We've waived Mack. It's indictable ineptitude, pure and simple.

Not to mention that we waived him to keep one of the worst players I've ever watched in an NBA uniform -- Jannero Pargo (32 years old to boot -- no development there, no future value).