Countdown to Ernie Grunfeld Firing

[montestewart]

That's actually not a bad transition plan CCJ, as long as it seemed credible enough that the position appeared enticing to quality candidates. If Leonsis can start making moves before the end of the season that look toward the future, and make known that a new candidate will have broad control over management and personnel, subject to reasonable monetary limits but otherwise free from Leonsis' and particular EG's (if he remains) interference.

Making a change while keeping EG in some senior capacity could maintain Leonsis' sense of loyalty to EG while limiting ongoing damage to the trust relationship with fans. Making changes to scouting, analytics, medical staff, training, coaching, etc. would advertise a willingness to change, but maybe a new GM would be better suited to making those changes, which might be why some here (myself included) are quite open to a mid-season change of GMs. Of the various replacement candidates discussed, are any likely available mid-season?

[Alfred]

Raptors fan here. I feel your pain.

[closg00]

Raptors fan here. I feel your pain.

At-least you guys nabbed Jonas, the Ross pick was very puzzling.

[closg00]

Ryan (Virginia beach)

are the Wizards the new Clippers? I'm an optimist, and the only thing I can be optimistic about is the chance for another high draft pick. This is just a horrible and horribly put together team.
Chad Ford(1:13 PM)

Don't think so for the simple fact that I think they have a much better owner who will do what it takes to turn this team around. However, I am a bit surprised at the blueprint early on. I'm not sure what the Wizard front office has done to keep their jobs. Even with a healthy John Wall, a healthy Nene and a more mature Brad Beal (give him time folks) they aren't that good.

[payitforward]

I suppose another reason why Ernie is still employed might be that he had quite a good off-season right after Ted took over.

He got the #1 pick (chance not skill, but still...). He picked the consensus guy; okay we're still waiting to see whether he turns out, but the pick doesn't yet look like an obvious mistake. He traded nothing, and in return got #17 in 2010, #18 in 2011 and a guy who had just been a round 1 pick. Can't argue with that sequence of trades, even if Crawford has turned out to be terrible. And he traded up to get Booker, definitely one of the steals of that draft, without giving up anything noticeable (not a strong round 2 that year).

The following year he managed to shorten our salary obligations going forward by finding someone willing to take Gil.

Without a doubt, that was good work. I can imagine that sequence of moves gave Ted the impression that Ernie was a heck of a wheeler-dealer. Ok, I can understand that.

But what would it take to undo that impression? I mean, he proceeded to botch all three 2011 draft picks, undo the benefits of the Gil trade, acquire an enormously long-term salary guy who may have been damaged goods (which we might have been able to know) and certainly seems unlikely to be a 30-minute-a-game player, acquire two over-paid and underperforming veterans, waste the 2012 round 2, deepest of any draft in quite a while ('09, which he also wasted, was pretty good too), fill out his roster with guys who are over-paid at the veteran minimum, throw away his high Rd2 pick from '11, sign the absolutely horrendous Jannero Pargo, and recover from that move w/ a below-average feel-good story in Shaun Livingston. Oh, and he didn't bring back James Singleton, but he did bring back Cartier Martin.

Based on this sequence of startling brilliance, we are 0-11. We are to feel that the return of "our best player" John Wall (??? -- an average NBA point guard in production who led us to a 20-46 record last year) would have made a difference?

I'm starting to wonder whether Ted had any role whatever in the success of AOL or was it all Steve Case? You can be sure Steve Case would have fired Ernie Grunfield by now!

[dangermouse]

Faried should be a DPOY candidate every year for the next few years, might win it once or twice.

WE COULD HAVE HAD FARIED.

[closg00]

When you start to see stories like this in the Post, reporters are starting to be not afraid of getting cut-off from access .

http://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/wi ... story.html

[Nivek]

When you start to see stories like this in the Post, reporters are starting to be not afraid of getting cut-off from access .

http://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/wi ... story.html

I didn't like this article from Lee.

I tweeted about it last night. Lee DM-ed me to say the article was about the Wizards compounding the Arenas contract blunder by making a bad trade. Hence, Wizards haunted by specter of Arenas contract. Basically, Wiz went from blunder to blunder. I can sorta see where he's going with it, but...

...the bad decision to trade for Okafor and Ariza had nothing to do with the Arenas contract -- except maybe in the facacta thinking of Leonsis and Grunfeld. They felt the need to be clever and "get SOMETHING" for Lewis. What's haunting the Wizards is bad decision-making NOW -- not things that didn't work out 4-5 years ago.

This goes back to a point I've made a few times -- the Wizards front office fundamentally misdiagnosed what's wrong with the team and set about fixing the wrong problems. They weren't bad because they were young, they were bad because their players weren't good NBA players AND many of those players were immature and irresponsible. The solution wasn't "veterans" it was better players who are mature and responsible.

The offseason "plan" -- add veterans and avoid opportunities to acquire young players would be logically the same as deciding not to acquire black players because the team has had trouble with black players not performing well. Why didn't the Wizards want more youngsters after picking Beal -- They already had "enough" of that kind.

The problem with the Wizards is that they're not evaluating players on their own merits -- they're evaluating them based on pre-determined "types" and "kinds." And because they're looking for "types" instead of BALLERS, they're missing opportunities to improve the team. Lots of guys fit into the "veterans" category. If you're looking for "veterans" almost anyone will do.

[keynote]

I hear you Kev, but any article that shines a light on the fact that the Okafor/Ariza trade was a bad one (a) in terms of production, and (b) in terms of lost opportunity to pursue far cheaper, freshly-amnestied veterans that were available few weeks later is a plus in my book. The finger of blame would have been more directly pointed at Ernie had Lee left Arenas out of the narrative entirely, but I'm happy for baby steps.

[Nivek]

See, that inclusion of Arenas is what I didn't like. It made it seem like the Wizards were doing the best they could considering that albatross of a contract. But that's not the case at all. It's similar to Lee including Blatche's salary in the section about the team's payroll. Blatche's contract is irrelevant when talking about payroll because they amnestied him. They have to pay him, but he doesn't count against the cap. From a player acquisition perspective, Blatche's contract means absolutely nothing.

Arenas is a red herring -- a distraction from the real issue. And whether Lee it meant it this way or not, it's yet another excuse for Grunfeld's bad decisions.

Plus, the Arenas contract turned out bad, but I don't think it was a blunder. Arenas was one of the top guards in the league -- an elite offensive weapon. He'd suffered a knee injury that thousands of athletes return from 100%. And, Arenas didn't get the max -- he took something like $2-3 million per season less than he could have gotten (and that amount less than he was offered by Golden State). The result was terrible because Arenas didn't recover, because he re-injured it, and because he flaked out. But, even putting all that aside, even if we agree that signing Arenas at that point was indeed a blunder, it had nothing to do with the Okafor/Ariza trade.

By including Arenas, Lee rendered virtually toothless the analysis that the Wizards are being hurt by Grunfeld's decisions.

[closg00]

I hear you Kev, but any article that shines a light on the fact that the Okafor/Ariza trade was a bad one (a) in terms of production, and (b) in terms of lost opportunity to pursue far cheaper, freshly-amnestied veterans that were available few weeks later is a plus in my book. The finger of blame would have been more directly pointed at Ernie had Lee left Arenas out of the narrative entirely, but I'm happy for baby steps.

+1 Baby steps indeed. For the casual hoops observer cruising though their newspaper, this kind of article shines a light on a giant mis-step that the casual fan might remember. Unfortunately, there are enough organizational mis-steps to write that kind of article daily. Kevin listed them nicely.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

I guessed the day they signed Arenas that it was a tremendous blunder. Too bad I didn't have that hunch the day I met my ex-wife. I had my reasons and so did the Wizards, I guess, but the road to perdition is paved with good intentions.

[nate33]

I've said this before, but I'm not sure if I've explained it well.

To me the biggest indictment of Ernie Grunfeld is the completely haphazard way he handled the offseason. He clearly had no plan.

When the Okariza acquisition was made, the premise was that we only had $5M in cap room after factoring Lewis' buyout; and that by trading Lewis for Okafor and Ariza, we could put better talent on the floor that what we could acquire with that $5M in cap room. I can even buy that premise. The problem was that AFTER he made the trade, he turned around and amnestied Blatche. THAT'S the inexcusable part, because with Blatche gone and no Lewis trade, we would have had $12M in cap room. But since he already acquired Okariza, the Blatche amnesty gave us no additional flexibility. EG DIDN'T KNOW WHAT HE WAS DOING!

I'm still struggling to comprehend how Ted let EG get away with this without firing him. Missing on a draft pick is forgivable. It happens to everyone. But this kind of blatant mismanagement of resources is inexcusable. If EG knew he was going to amnesty Blatche, then he would have known that the Okariza acquisition would deprive us of $12M in cap flexibility, not $5M. I don't think even EG would have made the Okariza acquisition if it meant $12M in lost cap room. Any fool can see that we can do better with $12M than Okafor plus Ariza.

[closg00]

Andray Blatche to reporters in BKN locker room: "Anybody see how the Wizards are doing?"

[dandridge 10]

My seats are diagonally from where Ted Leonsis sits. I don't think I have ever seen Ted look as disgusted as he did tonight. At one point, he threw a piece of paper on the ground and mouthed the word "f***". I sense a change is coming. Although I hope it will be Grunfeld, my guess is Wittman will be a goner by the end of the week.

[dandridge 10]

BTW, here is a shout out to dobrjim who I believe called in to Glenn Consor's post game show to express the opinion of many that Ernie should get his "walking papers". Glenn is such a tool. His response was that he doesn't wish anyone would get fired in this economy. Well, I'm sure EG will be just fine Glenn.

[queridiculo]

He really said that without a hint of sarcasm? Lol, that's rich.

[dandridge 10]

He really said that without a hint of sarcasm? Lol, that's rich.

No sarcasm at all.

[montestewart]

He really said that without a hint of sarcasm? Lol, that's rich.

No sarcasm at all.

**** that donkey **** it's guaranteed through the end of next year. That's a paid vacation!

[pancakes3]

The door for a successful build (rebuild implies that we were built at some point recently) is still open though.

When EG gets fired and we end up with either Shabazz or Zeller, it'll be a very flexible hand to play with for any half-competent GM to pick up and run with.

We've got young talents in place in Wall, Beal, Shabazz/Zeller, and Webster, talented hustle bench players in Booker, Singleton, and Seraphin, an expiring in Okafor, 7 million dollars instantly in not picking up Ariza's option, and the perfect timing to go after SVG as a new coach.

The 2013 free agent list could potentially net us any/some of: Dalembert, Millsap, Dejuan Blair, McBob, Luke Babbit, McRoberts, Budinger, Dorrell Wright, or Anthony Morrow.

A team of Wall, Morrow, Webster, Nene, Dalembert with Beal, Singleton, Booker, Zeller, and Seraphin for the 2nd unit is a team better than the Grizzlies, who by some estimates, are the best team in the league right now. Plus it's a young team.