Countdown to Ernie Grunfeld Firing

[truwizfan4evr]

We have a horrible front office its that simple. And with Grunfail running the show we will continue to stay at the bottom of the nba standing. There were other gm out there for Ted to sign he didn't even look at other options. What did Ernie do so well to earn him a contract beside make us a lottery team? Why be loyal to a loser like Ernie? A gm who makes the team you own the jokes of the nba every year. Ernie last hope is wait to Wall and Nene come back even with them back the wizards not going any where. Wall and Nene coming back would ruin us getting a lottery pick and we will miss the playoff so we be stuck in mediocrity.

[fishercob]

[GhostsOfGil]

[MikeTheKid]

[nate33]

Please stop arguing that Ernie should be fired because he didn't draft the likes of Paul Millsap, Kenneth Faried, Kawhi Leonard, Jae Crowder, or DeJuan Blair (or anybody else we didn't take that is now good).

Yes, I understand that several people on this board were big advocates for these players before the draft and before they proved to be good NBA players. But please try to understand this, or at least not to ignore this... it wasn't just Wizards fans on this board that wanted those players. Basketball "stat-heads" across the country were pointing to these same guys. They were hyping up these players months in advance of the draft as well, saying that they would be good in the NBA and that they were very undervalued. They weren't just saying these guys would be good picks for the Wizards, they were saying they'd be good picks for ANY NBA team.

So don't blame Ernie for not taking them. Blame GMs league-wide for being stubborn to a certain extent, and possibly being slow to accept advanced basketball statistics/analytics. This tide is turning in the NBA these days, and teams are slowly starting to accept the value of these advanced metrics. It's not just Ernie who missed on these guys.

I think you have a point in not indicting a GM for missing out on the few "steals" in every draft. You can't always draft the best player remaining on the board. But I think your defense of EG on these grounds doesn't hold up to scrutiny. We're not talking about missing Paul Millsap here. Pecherov was drafted 17th, Millsap was drafted 47th. 30 other GM's missed on Millsap too. I get it. But Crowder, Leonard and Faried were different.

Leonard was a top 10 pick in most mock drafts. We had the 6th selection and most on this board had it narrowed down to Leonard or Kemba Walker. I think Ruzious liked Marcus Morris. CCJ liked Faried. Nobody, and I mean NOBODY wanted Vesely. Everyone could see that he was a project player without a position; and even after several years in professional leagues in Europe, it was extremely disappointing that he still couldn't shoot or dribble.

Then, at the 18th pick, Faried was still on the board. At that point, EVERYONE wanted Faried and couldn't believe that he hadn't been picked yet. EG can definitely be blamed for missing him then. That's definitely not a mistake that every GM would have made. Faried went just 4 picks later.

Likewise, in 2012, nobody is angry that EG missed on Crowder at #3. The problem is that he whiffed again when Crowder was still there at #32.

[FAH1223]

The 2011 draft was one of the most depressing... I kind of think it was more depressing than 2009 in retrospect just cause we had 2 picks in the top 20 and we didn't even get a starter

[KennyGreen]

Must admit...caught myself thinking during game last night..."How good would it feel to have a Faried, Seraphin, Crowder frontcourt right now?"...to go w/ Wall and Beal in the backcourt?...also, it has become painfully apparent that Vesley is not an NBA player and probably will never be one...well I guess technically he is since he's drawing a paycheck but you know what I mean...

[FAH1223]

Must admit...caught myself thinking during game last night..."How good would it feel to have a Faried, Seraphin, Crowder frontcourt right now?"...to go w/ Wall and Beal in the backcourt?...also, it has become painfully apparent that Vesley is not an NBA player and probably will never be one...well I guess technically he is since he's drawing a paycheck but you know what I mean...

Vesley has regressed since he had a good 2 months or so to end the 2012 season... if thats possible to say

[JAR69]

I think you have a point in not indicting a GM for missing out on the few "steals" in every draft. You can't always draft the best player remaining on the board. But I think your defense of EG on these grounds doesn't hold up to scrutiny. We're not talking about missing Paul Millsap here. Pecherov was drafted 17th, Millsap was drafted 47th. 30 other GM's missed on Millsap too. I get it. But Crowder, Leonard and Faried were different.

Leonard was a top 10 pick in most mock drafts. We had the 6th selection and most on this board had it narrowed down to Leonard or Kemba Walker. I think Ruzious liked Marcus Morris. CCJ liked Faried. Nobody, and I mean NOBODY wanted Vesely. Everyone could see that he was a project player without a position; and even after several years in professional leagues in Europe, it was extremely disappointing that he still couldn't shoot or dribble.

Then, at the 18th pick, Faried was still on the board. At that point, EVERYONE wanted Faried and couldn't believe that he hadn't been picked yet. EG can definitely be blamed for missing him then. That's definitely not a mistake that every GM would have made. Faried went just 4 picks later.

Likewise, in 2012, nobody is angry that EG missed on Crowder at #3. The problem is that he whiffed again when Crowder was still there at #32.

I am not not not not defending Grunfool, but to be fair, several other teams had two shots at Faried in 2011. Cleveland picking Irving and T. Thompson is understandable. There were lots of trades, but Minnesota had two chances and ended up with Derrick Williams, Utah came away with Enes Kanter and Alec Burks, and Charlotte ended up with Kemba and Biyombo. I can't say Vesely and Singleton are better than any of those, but that's not the point.

And let's not forget Indiana traded Leonard to San Antonio for George Hill.

All that said, I totally agree Grunfeld whiffed twice on Faried (and that he needs to be fired). But others - some of whom are being lauded now as good GMs - did, too.

[Zonkerbl]

The point is, we need a GM who would not have whiffed twice on Faried. It's not like we're asking for much.

[Nivek]

The fact that other GMs also missed on a player -- not a persuasive argument to me. The NBA isn't an exercise in follow-the-crowd, it's supposed to be a competition. A key component of out-competing other teams is being better at recognizing talent.

The NBA draft -- heck, the entire NBA labor market -- is inefficient, and that's actually GREAT for smart, well-run teams. That ain't the Wizards with Grunfeld in charge.

[nate33]

I am not not not not defending Grunfool, but to be fair, several other teams had two shots at Faried in 2011. Cleveland picking Irving and T. Thompson is understandable. There were lots of trades, but Minnesota had two chances and ended up with Derrick Williams, Utah came away with Enes Kanter and Alec Burks, and Charlotte ended up with Kemba and Biyombo. I can't say Vesely and Singleton are better than any of those, but that's not the point.

And let's not forget Indiana traded Leonard to San Antonio for George Hill.

All that said, I totally agree Grunfeld whiffed twice on Faried (and that he needs to be fired). But others - some of whom are being lauded now as good GMs - did, too.

Again, I'm not blaming EG for missing Faried at #6. To some degree, GM's are forced to stay within the confines of "conventional wisdom" to give them cover if they are wrong. If a GM reaches for a guy 10 picks early (relative to the mocks) and whiffs, he gets fired. I'm blaming EG for missing Faried at #17. At 17, Faried was easily within the conventional wisdom range, and EG would have had cover if he turned out to be a bust. It was a big mistake and he should be held accountable.

[Nivek]

I don't blame Grunfeld for not PICKING Faried at #6. One of the advantages of an inefficient draft market and labor pool is that you can...for example...pick a kid like Beal at #3 and then take a guy like Crowder at 32.

In YODA, for example, Faried was rated as the third best player in the draft. I wouldn't use that information to trade up to get him -- knowing that other teams didn't have him that highly rated, I'd use that analysis to select him later -- in that way getting two high-quality players.

In this year's draft, YODA said Crowder was the 2nd best prospect. Again, doesn't mean you pick him #2 -- it means you exploit the fact that EVERYONE else thinks of him as a 2nd round pick to get him at 32. And then by picking Beal at 3 and Crowder at 32, you end up with 2 of the guys you think of as the top 5 prospects in the draft.

The problem with Grunfeld isn't that he didn't view Faried as the 3rd best prospect in the 2011 draft or that he didn't view Crowder as the 2nd best prospect in the 2012 draft -- it's that he didn't view Faried as being in the top 18 players of his draft and that he didn't view Crowder as one of the top 32.

[JAR69]

I am not not not not defending Grunfool, but to be fair, several other teams had two shots at Faried in 2011. Cleveland picking Irving and T. Thompson is understandable. There were lots of trades, but Minnesota had two chances and ended up with Derrick Williams, Utah came away with Enes Kanter and Alec Burks, and Charlotte ended up with Kemba and Biyombo. I can't say Vesely and Singleton are better than any of those, but that's not the point.

And let's not forget Indiana traded Leonard to San Antonio for George Hill.

All that said, I totally agree Grunfeld whiffed twice on Faried (and that he needs to be fired). But others - some of whom are being lauded now as good GMs - did, too.

Again, I'm not blaming EG for missing Faried at #6. To some degree, GM's are forced to stay within the confines of "conventional wisdom" to give them cover if they are wrong. If a GM reaches for a guy 10 picks early (relative to the mocks) and whiffs, he gets fired. I'm blaming EG for missing Faried at #17. At 17, Faried was easily within the conventional wisdom range, and EG would have had cover if he turned out to be a bust. It was a big mistake and he should be held accountable.

We don't disagree. And, Nivek, I agree that the fact that others made the same mistake doesn't absolve EG. The real problem is that the 2011 draft was only one of many data points of failed vision and judgment. I have defended some of EG's moves - including the Nene trade - but his overall record has a lot more negatives than positives. Sadly, I fear that Ted isn't going to do anything.

[Jimmy Recard]

I remember draft day 2011, there was speculation that Ernie was considering reaching for Kawhi Leonard at #6. If only...

Of course, i'd fully expect that if that did happen, we'd be sitting here today crucifying Leonard for his broken jump shot and lack of offense among other things.

The Spurs though, man, RC Buford and Pop sure know how to spot talent. More importantly though, they know how to develop them.

[Mickstix]

Back to topic, as long as Nene and Wall are injured, EG will ride that excuse as to the current mess.. Plus, is the arena any less full than it was last year? If not, please, no one hold their breath on Ted making a move. At least not a move against any of "his" guys.. Coach might need to sweat, but EG sleeps fine at night, Im almost positive..

[closg00]

Easy prediction. Not that Shaun Livingston is any great saviour, but there will enough of an adjustment to the rotation to spark a return to near mediocrity eventually. Ernie escapes the axe once-again.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

No. I don't expect that. I think Ted will recognize Ernie's loyalty, servitude, adherence to what his boss asked him to do, etc. but still turn the page to a new chapter.

Ernie Grunfeld is very likely at a point in life where there is something else great for him to embark upon. Being Wizard GM isn't it. However, there are many pro leagues. Israel, Europe, and other fledgling leagues beckon. New York Knicks organization last got to the finals with Grunfeld having selected many player from that team.

I don't hink Ernie will be with the Wizards much longer, but I think what SHOULD HAPPEN is instead of getting fired he should be given a leave of absence to pursue a higher calling, for the greater good.

[payitforward]

The fact that other GMs also missed on a player -- not a persuasive argument to me. The NBA isn't an exercise in follow-the-crowd, it's supposed to be a competition. A key component of out-competing other teams is being better at recognizing talent.

The NBA draft -- heck, the entire NBA labor market -- is inefficient, and that's actually GREAT for smart, well-run teams. That ain't the Wizards with Grunfeld in charge.

+1

And in any case, you can't defend the bad job you did by saying "other people also do a bad job."

Moreover, a GM is good or bad as his team is good or bad -- that's it. You can't say "Presti didn't take player X, so the fact that Ernie didn't take him is excusable." Presti has built a good team from nothing in 5 years. Ernie has dicked around like a fool forever.

[payitforward]

Easy prediction. Not that Shaun Livingston is any great saviour, but there will enough of an adjustment to the rotation to spark a return to near mediocrity eventually. Ernie escapes the axe once-again.

He might -- but not because Livingston will be taking us back to mediocrity or anywhere near. He isn't even an average player at his position. Not all that close actually.