Why can't we develop players?

[Nivek]

Agreed closg, many of EG's drafts never stood a chance. The just didn't have the mental fortitude or character. And many didn't have the skills. And others didn't have the opportunity. Examples

NY, McGee - character
Vesely - skills
Porter - opportunity

For Porter, why would you draft him if you already had Ariza and Webster - unless you are prescient and know he is going to be hurt and won't play until year two.

It all comes back to EG - he has been one of the worst drafting GMs of his time. He seems to miss either based upon character, skills or opportunity on virtually all of his picks sans Wall.

I need to update my draft analysis, but when I last did it, Grunfeld graded out about average as a drafter. It seems almost insane, but as a group, NBA GMs are not very good at drafting.

[dckingsfan]

82Games.com did one a while ago - I used some of their metrics but also weighted them for where they were drafted. EG didn't rate well at all. Like to hear your thoughts and rating system.

[Nivek]

82Games.com did one a while ago - I used some of their metrics but also weighted them for where they were drafted. EG didn't rate well at all. Like to hear your thoughts and rating system.

When I last did it (probably 2-3 years ago), I used PER as the metric, and looked at the first 4 years for each player -- reasoning that teams can control their picks for the first four seasons of the player's career. After that, teams essentially have to decide to reacquire the player with a new contract.

I used lottery era draft results. I calculated total PER credits, as well as the usual PER number (which is a per minute stat), and came up with the average value for each draft pick. Then I could measure how much each player exceeded or fell short of his expected production (based on the production of other players selected at his spot).

With some hits and some misses, Grunfeld got right around the "expected production" overall (all picks aggregated) based on the picks that he had.

Using PER wasn't ideal, but I hadn't put together PPA when I did the draft study. I want to redo with PPA.

Also, I didn't include stuff like trading the 5th pick for Miller and Foye -- which is something that would be easy to value when I get time to redo this thing better.

[dckingsfan]

OK, that is a reasonable method. I used WS/48 and rated them against expected output (subjective) per pick. It was definitely a pain to do and not repeatable/sustainable. I had EG in the bottom 7.

I did factor in trading the 5th pick with the assumption that the player would be with the Wizards for 3 years.

[Zonkerbl]

Yeah, I've said before, EG is perfectly mediocre at drafting and making trades.

Where he sucks is managing the plus assets that he manages to accumulate, like Blatche and Jordan Crawford.

So yeah, I wouldn't say he's the worst GM in the league. He's solidly below average -- 10th out of 30 or so.

Well, and his coaches are terrible. I would argue that Wittman is actually the best coach EG has hired as the Wizard's GM. Because I hated EJ and his "who gives a crap?" attitude towards defense.

[AWIZZINGBULLET]

Everything trickles down from Ernie Grunfeld's short-sightedness and lack of understanding of how to build a winning team IMO.

The Wizards have a dead front office... and a fill-in at the head coaching position.

[closg00]

The Sixers hired someone exclusively to work with their 6th pick Noel. The same can never be said for any Wizard rookie big.

[Kanyewest]

Practice and training do matter a lot, but so does opportunity. We have a #3 pick who is lacking opportunities. Except for year one, Ves lacked consistent opportunities. Kevin has lacked consistent opportunities as well. Specially this year. He will end the year playing less games and taking less shots then he has in any year since he was a raw rookie.

A coach can help accelerate the process or they can slow progress or even derail it.

McGee got opportunities and he actually did develop once he put in the proper work. Then he went to Denver and they adjusted his role and limited his sets with better compliment pieces and he become more efficient. His FG% went from .535 to .612 for 20 games. The following year is was .575 which was still better than his best year here .550. This year he was injured. Returning next year, he will be 27 on Jan 19. Missing this year injured was a huge set back in him developing. He was slotted to be their starting center.

Funny to see Denver now has two of our drafted big men. Also interesting is they have McGee listed at 7-0 270

Nick Young, he is playing meaningless basketball in LA making $1,106,942 He is going to blink and his career is going to be over. And it will be sad that he didn't optimize his talent by focusing more and growing up. In the famous words of Nick... Most definitely.

Nick Young just had 40 points, 4 rebounds, 2 steals (AND 1 ASSIST!!) in 33 minutes. It will be interesting to see if he gets paid next season even if he doesn't do much else except score

[Nivek]

That line -- 40, 4, 2 and 1 -- has been done 138 times since Young entered the league. Roughly 20 times a season.

He'll probably be in line for another minimum salary deal.

[dckingsfan]

The Sixers hired someone exclusively to work with their 6th pick Noel. The same can never be said for any Wizard rookie big.

Is that just for bigs or all Wizard rookies?

[hands11]

Practice and training do matter a lot, but so does opportunity. We have a #3 pick who is lacking opportunities. Except for year one, Ves lacked consistent opportunities. Kevin has lacked consistent opportunities as well. Specially this year. He will end the year playing less games and taking less shots then he has in any year since he was a raw rookie.

A coach can help accelerate the process or they can slow progress or even derail it.

McGee got opportunities and he actually did develop once he put in the proper work. Then he went to Denver and they adjusted his role and limited his sets with better compliment pieces and he become more efficient. His FG% went from .535 to .612 for 20 games. The following year is was .575 which was still better than his best year here .550. This year he was injured. Returning next year, he will be 27 on Jan 19. Missing this year injured was a huge set back in him developing. He was slotted to be their starting center.

Funny to see Denver now has two of our drafted big men. Also interesting is they have McGee listed at 7-0 270

Nick Young, he is playing meaningless basketball in LA making $1,106,942 He is going to blink and his career is going to be over. And it will be sad that he didn't optimize his talent by focusing more and growing up. In the famous words of Nick... Most definitely.

Nick Young just had 40 points, 4 rebounds, 2 steals (AND 1 ASSIST!!) in 33 minutes. It will be interesting to see if he gets paid next season even if he doesn't do much else except score

He will get paid. But I don't think it will be for much by NBA standards. I expect him to be slotted for back up SG/SF money.

[closg00]

The Sixers hired someone exclusively to work with their 6th pick Noel. The same can never be said for any Wizard rookie big.

Is that just for bigs or all Wizard rookies?

The Wiz once had Hoopalota for a brief period to help players with their shot. I think that's the only specialized coaching Ernie has ever gotten for the players.

[hands11]

Otto made the most of that opportunity.

Young man just needs some floor time. He will be ok

[gtn130]

So can we also say that player development is mostly dependent on the player?

This.

The player, his character and work ethic along with initial level of talent/potential are like 90% of it in my opinion. The problem is how the Wizards have drafted -- guys like McGee and Nick Young never developed because of their own character flaws that should have been visible during the draft process.

So draft players with the tools and work ethic and they develop. Could you add opportunity as well? Clearly many of the players mentioned had work ethic deficiencies. A player like Porter, is that an opportunity issue? Or is it a tools issue - nothing points to a work ethic issue.

And if it is an opportunity issue, who is that on? If a youngster isn't getting minutes should he go to the D league?

Opportunity is definitely a big part of it, but don't most players eventually get a shot? Do you think a player not getting minutes early on can damage his career? I think it would be hard to prove either way. Porter seems like a very rare circumstance where our beloved GM used the 3rd overall pick to be our 3rd small forward off the bench. Most 1st round draft picks get their opportunity at some point, and I'm sure OP will next year. But IMO it's a tools issue with OP -- he needs to get stronger plain and simple. Oh, and he could just be a bust .

Also, I think work ethic is a limiting descriptor when it comes to the mental side of development. A lot comes down to basic intelligence, not just how hard you work. Nick Young and JaVale McGee clearly lack intelligence in a way that deeply affects their development. There is a dearth of self-awareness between those two that allows them to continue their collectively myopic style of basketball. They just don't have much common sense, and I think Nick Young is actually kind of slow. I don't mean that disparagingly; I think he's not someone who will ever 1) be able to make quick, smart decisions in game and 2) benefit a lot from high level coaching. Conversely, I think Blatche is/was more than capable of learning and improving but has massive work ethic and attitude problems (not that Young and McGee are exempt from that either).

[dckingsfan]

Opportunity is definitely a big part of it, but don't most players eventually get a shot? Do you think a player not getting minutes early on can damage his career? I think it would be hard to prove either way.

Really good point, I can't think of a quantitative way of evaluating early opportunity.

Porter seems like a very rare circumstance where our beloved GM used the 3rd overall pick to be our 3rd small forward off the bench. Most 1st round draft picks get their opportunity at some point, and I'm sure OP will next year. But IMO it's a tools issue with OP -- he needs to get stronger plain and simple. Oh, and he could just be a bust .

Agreed, strength is a big part of the toolset that he needs. And that one just comes down to desire and hard work (provided you have the DNA to benefit from the work).

Also, I think work ethic is a limiting descriptor when it comes to the mental side of development. A lot comes down to basic intelligence, not just how hard you work. Nick Young and JaVale McGee clearly lack intelligence in a way that deeply affects their development. There is a dearth of self-awareness between those two that allows them to continue their collectively myopic style of basketball. They just don't have much common sense, and I think Nick Young is actually kind of slow. I don't mean that disparagingly; I think he's not someone who will ever 1) be able to make quick, smart decisions in game and 2) benefit a lot from high level coaching. Conversely, I think Blatche is/was more than capable of learning and improving but has massive work ethic and attitude problems (not that Young and McGee are exempt from that either).

Great description... I don't see Porter having an issue with either side, game decisions or listening to coaches. He doesn't seem like that kind of person - but I am not at the practices

It gives me some hope for Porter becoming a reasonably good player - the question is will he be worth the $4,470,480 then $4,662,960 and then $5,893,981 over the next three years? One can only hope...

[hands11]

This convo leads me to believe we should be drafting players like Zeller over higher potential players like Adams or Len. We just aren't gonna get the Adams or Len we want. Only when a player has potential star status, like a Bennett, for instance, do I think this organization should be taking a chance. Other than that we should be getting proven talent with perhaps lower ceilings. Until the organization turns the corner on this, the chances of contending are pretty low.

I think they have this put together well enough already to take on either of those players.

This is not the team is was to start the year or the team it was the year before or the year before that. I don't think Wizard fans have caught up with that fact enough yet.

Adam seems to be adding to his skill at a pretty rapid pace. He already has good shooting form. And he seems driven to get better. At least from what I have seen so far. And he is a man boy. I don't see him backing down to anyone.

As for Len, you can already see he has skills and he is getting better. Interviews and research have to play a critical role in deciding.

Between the two, you have to decide what you want. Adams seems like he will be more of a power player. A good drop step and that young man is going to do some damage down low. Len is also intriguing.

I hadn't seen him interviewed before. Interesting interview. I was most impressed by the fact he is already thinking 15 years down the road and how he wants to help young Ukrainian player make it to the NBA. He was also smart enough to come to the US and go to college to help him transition instead of just being one of those international players that is more of a crap shoot and who is stuff in a contract they have to get out of.

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I627pJP-0Qw&feature=player_embedded#![/youtube]

What if we just drafted one of these two last year ?

We would already have our young center prospect.

[dckingsfan]

This.

The player, his character and work ethic along with initial level of talent/potential are like 90% of it in my opinion. The problem is how the Wizards have drafted -- guys like McGee and Nick Young never developed because of their own character flaws that should have been visible during the draft process.

So draft players with the tools and work ethic and they develop. Could you add opportunity as well? Clearly many of the players mentioned had work ethic deficiencies. A player like Porter, is that an opportunity issue? Or is it a tools issue - nothing points to a work ethic issue.

And if it is an opportunity issue, who is that on? If a youngster isn't getting minutes should he go to the D league?

Opportunity is definitely a big part of it, but don't most players eventually get a shot? Do you think a player not getting minutes early on can damage his career? I think it would be hard to prove either way. Porter seems like a very rare circumstance where our beloved GM used the 3rd overall pick to be our 3rd small forward off the bench. Most 1st round draft picks get their opportunity at some point, and I'm sure OP will next year. But IMO it's a tools issue with OP -- he needs to get stronger plain and simple. Oh, and he could just be a bust .

Also, I think work ethic is a limiting descriptor when it comes to the mental side of development. A lot comes down to basic intelligence, not just how hard you work. Nick Young and JaVale McGee clearly lack intelligence in a way that deeply affects their development. There is a dearth of self-awareness between those two that allows them to continue their collectively myopic style of basketball. They just don't have much common sense, and I think Nick Young is actually kind of slow. I don't mean that disparagingly; I think he's not someone who will ever 1) be able to make quick, smart decisions in game and 2) benefit a lot from high level coaching. Conversely, I think Blatche is/was more than capable of learning and improving but has massive work ethic and attitude problems (not that Young and McGee are exempt from that either).

And that is where your draft process comes in... previously on EG Screws up the Draft - we saw him repeatedly draft those types of players. Someone who has a flaw (Bball IQ, Fear, Skills, etc.) that will keep them from reaching their potential.

And it all comes down to "In EG we don't trust".

[Zonkerbl]

82Games.com did one a while ago - I used some of their metrics but also weighted them for where they were drafted. EG didn't rate well at all. Like to hear your thoughts and rating system.

When I last did it (probably 2-3 years ago), I used PER as the metric, and looked at the first 4 years for each player -- reasoning that teams can control their picks for the first four seasons of the player's career. After that, teams essentially have to decide to reacquire the player with a new contract.

I used lottery era draft results. I calculated total PER credits, as well as the usual PER number (which is a per minute stat), and came up with the average value for each draft pick. Then I could measure how much each player exceeded or fell short of his expected production (based on the production of other players selected at his spot).

With some hits and some misses, Grunfeld got right around the "expected production" overall (all picks aggregated) based on the picks that he had.

Using PER wasn't ideal, but I hadn't put together PPA when I did the draft study. I want to redo with PPA.

Also, I didn't include stuff like trading the 5th pick for Miller and Foye -- which is something that would be easy to value when I get time to redo this thing better.

Can't wait to see the four year average value of one year's worth of Miller and Foye. Criminy. Or does EG get some credit for the cap space they left behind?

[Zonkerbl]

Nick Young has a learning disability.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/co ... 01490.html

[Nivek]

Nick Young has a learning disability.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/co ... 01490.html

Was going to say that it's something we knew about before he was drafted, but then I saw that the article is from 2007. The learning disability may have played a role in the difficulty he had learning the playbook(s).