Jan Vesely Part II: He a Bust

[closg00]

He turns 23 in a month. It's getting pretty hard to blame his lack of mass on immaturity. Do we really think he's going to fill out much going forward? Or is he just a guy who can't put on weight? He is just so pathetically weak out there. He tries hard but gets thrown around like a rag doll. Couple that with no offensive skills, poor hands, no handle, and no confidence, and it's pretty hard to see how he's going to turn it around. Even if he does, I think he'll look more like Jeffries than Ibaka. Why wait 4 years to develop the next Jared Jeffries?

You're probably right about his upper end - the next Jared Jeffries is not worth waiting for. But its certainly worth spending another year's worth of salary to find out. I agree the chances are pretty solid that Vesely was a massive bust ("Are you listening, Ted?"), and hopefully EG will be blamed accordingly for that. But the franchise needs to give him one more offseason before we etch it in the books.

Absolutely not, the team is starved for talent and role-players who can contribute more than what JV can offer. There was a sad moment during the blow-out last night when Temple tossed-up what would be failed Oop to Vesely. Vesely simply doesn't offer enough skills to merit him staying in the NBA.

[sfam]

Absolutely not, the team is starved for talent and role-players who can contribute more than what JV can offer. There was a sad moment during the blow-out last night when Temple tossed-up what would be failed Oop to Vesely. Vesely simply doesn't offer enough skills to merit him staying in the NBA.

Given who we've got at the back end of the roster this year, I don't see a problem keeping Ves. We can dump like 3-4 useless players in hopes of finding decent role players and still keep Ves. Bottom line, the kid showed potential last year, and then regressed this year. Its worth another year of waiting to make sure, even though the chances are pretty slim at this point. I'm not talking about keeping Ves 5 more years like Blatche in the hopes he turns into a superstar. But if Ves can turn into a Jeffries+ type player next year, its worth another year.

[tontoz]

Vesely is one of those useless players. He is a complete waste of a roster spot.

[nate33]

You're probably right about his upper end - the next Jared Jeffries is not worth waiting for. But its certainly worth spending another year's worth of salary to find out. I agree the chances are pretty solid that Vesely was a massive bust ("Are you listening, Ted?"), and hopefully EG will be blamed accordingly for that. But the franchise needs to give him one more offseason before we etch it in the books.

If we decline his player option, we free up $4M in cap room in 2014. I think a $4M free agent is going to be better than whatever Vesely develops into. (We would still have Vesely in 2013.)

[Higga]

I'll take $4 Mil over Vesley anytime. Hell I'd take $4 over Vesley. He is garabge(check the sig).

[sfam]

You're probably right about his upper end - the next Jared Jeffries is not worth waiting for. But its certainly worth spending another year's worth of salary to find out. I agree the chances are pretty solid that Vesely was a massive bust ("Are you listening, Ted?"), and hopefully EG will be blamed accordingly for that. But the franchise needs to give him one more offseason before we etch it in the books.

If we decline his player option, we free up $4M in cap room in 2014. I think a $4M free agent is going to be better than whatever Vesely develops into. (We would still have Vesely in 2013.)

I'm fine with that. Vesely gets one more year to develop/improve. If he screws the pooch in 2013/2014, we decline him and move on with our day. In the rare case that he turns into the second coming of Jared Jeffries next year, we pick up his option to see if he continues to improve.

EDIT: And again, if we already know he'll be here next year, we really should be using this month to help set his offseason priorities.

[Nivek]

EDIT: And again, if we already know he'll be here next year, we really should be using this month to help set his offseason priorities.

As part of the exit interview at the end of the season, every team in the league has a conversation with every player on the team in which it explains what the coaching staff and front office thinks the player needs to work on for the next season. That assessment and the offseason priorities are given to the player in writing. My guess is that most teams (if not all) likely provide this assessment and the offseason "work list" in electronic form -- probably with video and other resources for the player to use.

This is standard procedure for every team, including the Wizards. They do it for every player, including older guys and guys they don't expect to bring back.

[I_Like_Dirt]

He turns 23 in a month. It's getting pretty hard to blame his lack of mass on immaturity. Do we really think he's going to fill out much going forward? Or is he just a guy who can't put on weight? He is just so pathetically weak out there. He tries hard but gets thrown around like a rag doll. Couple that with no offensive skills, poor hands, no handle, and no confidence, and it's pretty hard to see how he's going to turn it around. Even if he does, I think he'll look more like Jeffries than Ibaka. Why wait 4 years to develop the next Jared Jeffries?

I think Jan is more of a genius. He knows that he was drafted by the Wizards, so the second he shows even the tiniest amount of talent he'll start suffering nagging, and eventually career-ending injuries. As a result, he's decided to take his millions of dollars and keep his health in tact so he can enjoy those millions of dollars later on in life.

[sfam]

EDIT: And again, if we already know he'll be here next year, we really should be using this month to help set his offseason priorities.

As part of the exit interview at the end of the season, every team in the league has a conversation with every player on the team in which it explains what the coaching staff and front office thinks the player needs to work on for the next season. That assessment and the offseason priorities are given to the player in writing. My guess is that most teams (if not all) likely provide this assessment and the offseason "work list" in electronic form -- probably with video and other resources for the player to use.

This is standard procedure for every team, including the Wizards. They do it for every player, including older guys and guys they don't expect to bring back.

My point is we'll have a better idea if Vesely is actually playing regularly this month. This gives Vesely a more legitimate chance of turning things around, while allowing us to tank better. Wins all the way around!

[tontoz]

leftover pizza > Vesely

[sfam]

leftover pizza > Vesely

That totally depends on the toppings.

[Nivek]

Took a look at the "What Happened Vesely" question over at the blog.

Went looking for some historical precedent and...couldn't find any. Players don't look "decent" as a rookie and then enter catastrophic suckitude in their second season. I'm open to, "Hey how 'bout..." thoughts.

[Kanyewest]

Well Vesely had 6 rebounds in 15 minutes and hit 2 of his free throws but that's far from a breakout performance. Probably the thing that changed is that he hasn't gotten much playing time and when he does he's on a short leash. I know February is a short month but he only had 7 minutes of playing time.That's what happens with depth. Excluding the last two games, he had 31 minutes of playing time in March and he saw 16 minutes of playing time vs Philly. Meaning when Vesely has been getting into games, it is for 2-3 minute spurts.

Nene also has declined considerably when the Wizards got him in 2012 vs this year with 2012-13 season. Nene still has his good games but they are not as frequent since he has been playing with injuries.

[hands11]

EDIT: And again, if we already know he'll be here next year, we really should be using this month to help set his offseason priorities.

As part of the exit interview at the end of the season, every team in the league has a conversation with every player on the team in which it explains what the coaching staff and front office thinks the player needs to work on for the next season. That assessment and the offseason priorities are given to the player in writing. My guess is that most teams (if not all) likely provide this assessment and the offseason "work list" in electronic form -- probably with video and other resources for the player to use.

This is standard procedure for every team, including the Wizards. They do it for every player, including older guys and guys they don't expect to bring back.

My point is we'll have a better idea if Vesely is actually playing regularly this month. This gives Vesely a more legitimate chance of turning things around, while allowing us to tank better. Wins all the way around!

And give him something to fell good about going into a summer of training. Shut Nene down or at a min bring him off the bench like they did to end last season.

As for Ves. Did you see him sink those two FTAs.

Vanchise.

[closg00]

Took a look at the "What Happened Vesely" question over at the blog.

Went looking for some historical precedent and...couldn't find any. Players don't look "decent" as a rookie and then enter catastrophic suckitude in their second season. I'm open to, "Hey how 'bout..." thoughts.

Nicely done piece Kev, I wish you didn't have to register your email address to comment (not your fault)

[sfam]

Took a look at the "What Happened Vesely" question over at the blog.

Went looking for some historical precedent and...couldn't find any. Players don't look "decent" as a rookie and then enter catastrophic suckitude in their second season. I'm open to, "Hey how 'bout..." thoughts.

Nicely done piece Kev, I wish you didn't have to register your email address to comment (not your fault)

Really good overview. And yeah, I'm totally stumped as to Vesely's performance. My best guess is he got money for the first time in his life and started seeing how white powder felt in his nose or something. Really, that's what normally explains massive drop offs like this. Timmy Smith for the Redskins comes to mind for instance.

[hands11]

He went from averaging 18 minutes a game on a bad team where he was one of the new young talents to 12 mins a game and long stretches of not playing at all on a team that has veteran post talent better then him.

Whats the confusion.

He has never been able to find any kind of rhythm because he doesn't play enough or often enough to do it.

To start the year there wasn't any PG for him to run with and now that there is, Randy doesn't play him because he had better options like Nene. And when Nene isn't in there they need a stronger rebounding body so they play Booker. Or there are other injuries and they need shooting range so they play Trevor A at PF or Singleton. Or they need a post scoring game so they go with Kevin S.

Ves could work in a line up like

Wall, Beal, Webster/Trevor A, Ves, Nene

They have rarely had those players all available when they weren't trying to win more then give Ves a chance to find his grove. You can only develop so many players at a time and Randy chose other options to develop like Kevin S. Kevin played like crap plenty but he still got minutes.

Ves had two nice games Mon 1/7 and Mon 1/14 and the Wizards won both. One was against OKC. Since then he has been banished and hardly played.

Kind of hard to show anything when youre never play.

The season is over. Start Kevin with Okafor and bring Ves and Nene off the bench. We know what Booker and Singleton can do at PF already.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Took a look at the "What Happened Vesely" question over at the blog.

Went looking for some historical precedent and...couldn't find any. Players don't look "decent" as a rookie and then enter catastrophic suckitude in their second season. I'm open to, "Hey how 'bout..." thoughts.

Guesses: He misses his original hottie GF. They broke up. Jan hates the NBA game with strong brothers hitting him. Total loss of confidence. He has role confusion from playing C and PF instead of playing SF.

When Jan first arrived, he displayed a great deal of swagger. Nene's arrival did not negatively impact Jan. Getting moved down the depth chart, initially when Singleton became the backup PF was significant. Whatever happened in practice is probably significant. Playing behind Okafor and also Seraphin and Booker was significant.

I think Vesely got shoved back down the depth chart and he has struggled to find a comfort zone ever since. He's a role player who needs minutes and to play off of other players. Vesely depends on continuity more than other players. Last season, there was quite a bit of cohesiveness between Vesely, Seraphin, and Wall at the end of the season. This season, Vesely has not been in a regular rotation.

I think his problems are 95% confidence-related. He might also dislike his role with the Wizards. Vesely was a big name in Europe and I think he's bound to return sooner than later.

[nate33]

To start the year there wasn't any PG for him to run with and now that there is, Randy doesn't play him because he had better options like Nene. And when Nene isn't in there they need a stronger rebounding body so they play Booker. Or there are other injuries and they need shooting range so they play Trevor A at PF or Singleton. Or they need a post scoring game so they go with Kevin S.

Yes, this explains the problem exactly, only not really in the way that you meant it. The problem with Vesely is that other people on the team do basketball things better than he does. Therefore, there is no role for him.

[fishercob]

Nivek, I appreciate the blog post. The conventional wisdom machine has continuously spouted that Vesely was a bust from day one. And while he may have been the wrong pick, you demonstrate that he made clear progress last year to the point of being a pretty helpful player by season's end. The competition was weak then, but he was nowhere near the anchor he is now.

This begs a few questions. Is Vesely's failure to improve solely on him, or are the Wizards complicit. Normally, I'm of the mind that it's the player's responsibility to get better. And it is. But with all these raw, young players, one has to blame the front office a bit for not having better plans to help them improve. Even moreso, it just represents a failure of scouting and drafting. The only way you draft a guy as limited as Vesely was is if you're sure beyond sure that he has an insatiable work ethic that will allow him to improve quickly. Ernie screwed the pooch there bigtime.

So given the evidence that Vesely was a productive player in the not so distant past, do we try to rehab him in the hopes of getting some contributions out of him or at least upping his trade value ? Or do we just chalk it up to a sunk cost, not pick up his option and bury him on the bench next year? I'm leaning towards the latter.