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payitforward wrote:

nate33 wrote:...Nearly any player would play better with Wall.

Whoa there... last year, with John Wall averaging 35+ minutes a game, we started the season 14-46. Didn't we? Do I have that right? So... exactly what would make you elevate him in this (to me nonsensical) way?

I keep trying to figure out where claims like this come from.

Wins and losses -- that's the sole measure of a team. Nothing else matters -- or at least it doesn't matter until you get lots of wins and few losses. Wins and losses are determined by numbers. Nothing else.

Contributing to team wins and losses by what you do on the court -- that's the sole measure of an individual player. Nothing else matters. That contribution is measured by numbers. Nothing else. After all, to get the team numbers, the ones that fully determine whether you win or lose, all you have to do is add up the individuals' numbers.

Overall, John Wall's numbers are those of an average nba point guard. Some of them are very good; others are very bad. Really bad. Overall... meh. I hope John Wall turns out to be an outstanding player. To date, he hasn't shown that he can produce consistently at a high level.

Read these number then.

120 pts.

2-0 with Wall returned along with a mostly healthy roster.

TS .545 %
9.7 FTA in 36 minutes
AST % 48%

Why they won the last two games is not just Wall. Its has a lot to do with with having viable PG behind him. Its Price. And even Temple behind that. Its also Trevor A returning and his defense. Its Nene starting and how that help Okafor.

But Wall is the little engine that brings it all together. Its his speed. Passing. FTAs. Driving. Handles. Leadership. Personality.

Yes. Those numbers are from only two games. There will be plenty of opportunity to post more of them moving forward. That is what we have right now. Well until his knee blows out his knee and he has major surgery that ends his season.

Wall makes other players better. Vesley is one of them.

hands11 wrote:Well until his knee blows out his knee and he has major surgery that ends his season.

What makes you so sure that will happen?

nate33 wrote:

payitforward wrote:

nate33 wrote:...Nearly any player would play better with Wall.

Whoa there... last year, with John Wall averaging 35+ minutes a game, we started the season 14-46. Didn't we? Do I have that right? So... exactly what would make you elevate him in this (to me nonsensical) way?

I keep trying to figure out where claims like this come from.

Wins and losses -- that's the sole measure of a team. Nothing else matters -- or at least it doesn't matter until you get lots of wins and few losses. Wins and losses are determined by numbers. Nothing else.

Contributing to team wins and losses by what you do on the court -- that's the sole measure of an individual player. Nothing else matters. That contribution is measured by numbers. Nothing else. After all, to get the team numbers, the ones that fully determine whether you win or lose, all you have to do is add up the individuals' numbers.

Overall, John Wall's numbers are those of an average nba point guard. Some of them are very good; others are very bad. Really bad. Overall... meh. I hope John Wall turns out to be an outstanding player. To date, he hasn't shown that he can produce consistently at a high level.

We would have been worse than 14-46 without him.

I'm not saying Wall is a superstar. I'm merely saying he is a true PG that knows how to make life easier for his teammates. Outside of Wall, nobody else on the roster can do this. Have you been watching the last 3 games. Do you honestly think Vesely would be playing like this if Sheldon Mack was PG?

Except, the offense has been no better when Wall's been on the floor so far this season. In Wall's 41 minutes, Wizards are scoring 97.6 pts per 100 possessions; without him this season: 97.2. Obviously a tiny sample size, and the on/off numbers could be interpreted a number of different ways (for example: the Wizards shot better in Wall's 41 minutes, but their turnovers skyrocketed and their offensive rebounding plummeted).

If his knee blows out, we could give him a new nickname - WallG3.

That's pending Rob Parker's approval.

Ruzious wrote:If his knee blows out, we could give him a new nickname - WallG3.

That's pending Rob Parker's approval.

Nivek wrote:Except, the offense has been no better when Wall's been on the floor so far this season. In Wall's 41 minutes, Wizards are scoring 97.6 pts per 100 possessions; without him this season: 97.2. Obviously a tiny sample size, and the on/off numbers could be interpreted a number of different ways (for example: the Wizards shot better in Wall's 41 minutes, but their turnovers skyrocketed and their offensive rebounding plummeted).

He made the offense 2.7 points better when he was on the floor last year.

I think Wall makes life easier for some of his teammates, particularly Vesely who is good at cutting to the basket. In some ways, Wall hurts other teammates because of his inability to space the floor. I wouldn't be surprised if the player pairs data showed that Nene was better without Wall, for example. Also, Wall himself isn't a very efficient player and that has hurt the offense.

nate33 wrote:

Nivek wrote:Except, the offense has been no better when Wall's been on the floor so far this season. In Wall's 41 minutes, Wizards are scoring 97.6 pts per 100 possessions; without him this season: 97.2. Obviously a tiny sample size, and the on/off numbers could be interpreted a number of different ways (for example: the Wizards shot better in Wall's 41 minutes, but their turnovers skyrocketed and their offensive rebounding plummeted).

He made the offense 2.7 points better when he was on the floor last year.

I'd say that a little differently. The offense was 2.7 pts better when Wall was on the floor last season. RAPM says the offense was +1.2 when Wall was on the floor last season.

But, last season is beside the point when talking about the narrative being spun out about this season. Namely, that the Wizards are playing better and winning games because Wall is making his teammates better. At best, the data is inconclusive. A more reasonable interpretation of these past two games is that Wall hasn't made much of a difference yet.

Unless we're going to credit Wall for guys performing better when he's in uniform but not on the floor.

Nivek wrote:At best, the data is inconclusive. A more reasonable interpretation of these past two games is that Wall hasn't made much of a difference yet.

Unless we're going to credit Wall for guys performing better when he's in uniform but not on the floor.

Fair enough.

But I did see Wall throw about 5 lobs to Vesely in the few minutes that they were on the court together. I don't believe our other PG's would have made those passes, and I do think that those types of plays inspire Vesely to play harder and with more confidence.

AJ Price has scored 34 points the last two games. He has been the one on the floor when Wall isn't playing so obviously Price's good play will have an effect on Wall's on/off numbers.

Personally i think it is pointless to look at +/- in sample sizes this small.

I will always be mad Wizards didn't take Nikola Vucevic. Pick was so obvious to me. Made no sense to me he was rated so low. I felt he was at least an equivalent talent to Enes Kanter.

Vucevic had much more skill than Vesely, just as much upside, and was by far the more proven player and low risk. With his size, rebounding skill, shooting ability, and very strong work ethic, I just will never understand the process involved with passing on a player like him in favor of Vesely.

SUPERBALLMAN wrote:I will always be mad Wizards didn't take Nikola Vucevic. Pick was so obvious to me. Made no sense to me he was rated so low. I felt he was at least an equivalent talent to Enes Kanter.

Vucevic had much more skill than Vesely, just as much upside, and was by far the more proven player and low risk. With his size, rebounding skill, shooting ability, and very strong work ethic, I just will never understand the process involved with passing on a player like him in favor of Vesely.

Very solid player. The only thing about him - he's got very bad feet on defense. I still like Kanter better.

tontoz wrote:AJ Price has scored 34 points the last two games. He has been the one on the floor when Wall isn't playing so obviously Price's good play will have an effect on Wall's on/off numbers.

Personally i think it is pointless to look at +/- in sample sizes this small.

Speaking of small sample sizes, I've been especially impressed with Price - since he and that Wall guy returned. I think he might end up being a better acquisition than Webster.

nate33 wrote:

Nivek wrote:At best, the data is inconclusive. A more reasonable interpretation of these past two games is that Wall hasn't made much of a difference yet.

Unless we're going to credit Wall for guys performing better when he's in uniform but not on the floor.

Fair enough.

But I did see Wall throw about 5 lobs to Vesely in the few minutes that they were on the court together. I don't believe our other PG's would have made those passes, and I do think that those types of plays inspire Vesely to play harder and with more confidence.

Just wrote about this over at the blog. Evan Zamir (an APBRmetrics guy) has a new site called http://nbawowy.com/ that allows for folks to look at stats with various combinations of players.

Wall and Vesely have shared the court for 23 possessions so far this season. During those 23 possessions, Vesely has attempted two shots; he made one.

The sample size is obviously TINY. Only guy who could arguably be described as better with Wall is Beal, but Beal's improved play preceded Wall's return to action.

One of the things I point out over at the blog -- during Wall's 41 minutes (all of them in the past two games), the Wizards produced an offensive rating of 98. During those two games, the Wizards offensive rating overall was 113.

This is NOT knocking Wall, but pointing out the unsupported assertions about what Wall's return has meant to the team. Wall's been along for the ride the past two games, which is perfectly fine considering that he's returning to the lineup after such a long absence and that he's not completely in shape yet.

Giving Wall credit for something he hasn't actually done serves to take credit from the guys who are actually getting the job done -- like Price and Webster.

Interesting factoid from Evan's site: last two games, Seraphin's efg with Wall on the floor -- .364. Without Wall: .571.

Vesely's play earlier this season surely contributed to him being often overlooked on court, but sometimes it seemed like everyone except maybe Crawford completely forgot about him. In that last game, it seemed like Price and Temple were more aware of Vesely as a scoring option. I tell myself (with no particular evidence) that Wall's mere return to the active roster brought about that altered mindset, both in Vesely and in his teammates regarding him. "Wall will be looking for him. We better do the same. CYA."

Whatever, I like when he can be a valid (if very narrowly defined) 5th option.

Nivek wrote:One of the things I point out over at the blog -- during Wall's 41 minutes (all of them in the past two games), the Wizards produced an offensive rating of 98. During those two games, the Wizards offensive rating overall was 113.

This is NOT knocking Wall, but pointing out the unsupported assertions about what Wall's return has meant to the team. Wall's been along for the ride the past two games, which is perfectly fine considering that he's returning to the lineup after such a long absence and that he's not completely in shape yet.

Giving Wall credit for something he hasn't actually done serves to take credit from the guys who are actually getting the job done -- like Price and Webster.

GhostsOfGil wrote:Small sample size but after 2 games, 82games.com has Wall at +14 in on/off diff. His counterpart is averaging a PER of 7.4 per 48 minutes and he's shooting .385 eFG% on jumpers; about 7% better than last season.

His per 36 numbers are ridiculous; about 23 ppg and 9 assists. I'm not sure we could have asked for a better start from a player who missed 33 games.

Can both of these be true?

nate33 wrote:

Nivek wrote:One of the things I point out over at the blog -- during Wall's 41 minutes (all of them in the past two games), the Wizards produced an offensive rating of 98. During those two games, the Wizards offensive rating overall was 113.

This is NOT knocking Wall, but pointing out the unsupported assertions about what Wall's return has meant to the team. Wall's been along for the ride the past two games, which is perfectly fine considering that he's returning to the lineup after such a long absence and that he's not completely in shape yet.

Giving Wall credit for something he hasn't actually done serves to take credit from the guys who are actually getting the job done -- like Price and Webster.

GhostsOfGil wrote:Small sample size but after 2 games, 82games.com has Wall at +14 in on/off diff. His counterpart is averaging a PER of 7.4 per 48 minutes and he's shooting .385 eFG% on jumpers; about 7% better than last season.

His per 36 numbers are ridiculous; about 23 ppg and 9 assists. I'm not sure we could have asked for a better start from a player who missed 33 games.

Can both of these be true?

Based off the eye test I'd say Kevs data seems to show Walls impact more accurately.. but heres where I pulled that data from:

(updated yesterday and includes both games) http://www.82games.com/1213/1213WAS.HTM

Edit on 2nd glance are you sure those numbers are correct kev? Wall is averaging an oRTG of 107.

On the John Wall page, it reads:

Offense: Pts per 100 Poss.: +0.4
Defense: Pts per 100 Poss.: -14.1
Net Points per 100 Possessions.: +14.5

So Wall is a net zero on offense, but makes a ginormous impact defensively.

Nate: Am I gonna have to fight you about how you describe on/off stats? The on/off stats don't say Wall is having a huge impact on defense. The stats say the TEAM defense has been better with Wall on the floor. They don't say that Wall is responsible for that change.

Looking for causality is what led to my defensive tracking project lo those many years ago.

^^True. But he has looked beastly on defense in the last 2 games. I don't know what's gotten into him. I think he's angry at his injury and career trajectory. This was supposed to be a big year for him and I think it's led to increased motivation. All pure conjecture.