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Kevin Seraphin Thread - Part II

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Post#1 Kevin Seraphin Thread - Part II
Mon Dec 10, 2012 12:03 am by nate33

Continued from here
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Post#2 Re: Kevin Seraphin Thread - Part II
Mon Dec 10, 2012 6:05 am by veji1

Hands11 wrote:He could be a truly dominate player if he had the right mind set. He should be grabbing 12 rebounds a game min in his 30 minutes and getting to the line at least 4 times.

But instead, he plays so French. Lots of talent. But he has no Balls. Even when he takes it toward the basket, its finesse stuff. Taking it to the reverse side. The kid has the foot work to get the angle on players. He needs to do that and then go strong to the hoop. Be a man already. Realize how to be a power player.


Dude... I know it is meant in gest but there is nothing "french" in the way he plays... Sure Boris Diaw plays like a delicate princess, but Tony Parker is one of the most reckless player in the league attacking the lane with abandon for more than 10 years while only being a featherweight....

I get what you are trying to say and I concurr, but lets not go into stereotypes... Should I say Crawford play is so American, no talent but lots of Balls ? see It doesn't make sense so let's abstain.

Cheers.
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Post#3 Re: Kevin Seraphin Thread - Part II
Mon Dec 10, 2012 7:20 am by tontoz

Hopefully KS will debut his "power move" before the All-Star break. I like the way he is being more patient setting up his hook but he really needs to start taking it to the basket.
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Post#4 Re: Kevin Seraphin Thread - Part II
Mon Dec 10, 2012 7:40 am by hands11

veji1 wrote:
Hands11 wrote:He could be a truly dominate player if he had the right mind set. He should be grabbing 12 rebounds a game min in his 30 minutes and getting to the line at least 4 times.

But instead, he plays so French. Lots of talent. But he has no Balls. Even when he takes it toward the basket, its finesse stuff. Taking it to the reverse side. The kid has the foot work to get the angle on players. He needs to do that and then go strong to the hoop. Be a man already. Realize how to be a power player.


Dude... I know it is meant in gest but there is nothing "french" in the way he plays... Sure Boris Diaw plays like a delicate princess, but Tony Parker is one of the most reckless player in the league attacking the lane with abandon for more than 10 years while only being a featherweight....

I get what you are trying to say and I concurr, but lets not go into stereotypes... Should I say Crawford play is so American, no talent but lots of Balls ? see It doesn't make sense so let's abstain.

Cheers.


If you know what I meant then just go with that.

To use stereotyping or not, I think we can all decide that on our own. There is nothing inherently bad about stereotyping but God, lets not get into that debate again.
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Post#5 Re: Kevin Seraphin Thread - Part II
Mon Dec 10, 2012 8:49 am by nate33

veji1 wrote:Should I say Crawford play is so American, no talent but lots of Balls ? see It doesn't make sense so let's abstain.

Actually, I think that's a perfect description of Crawford.
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Post#6 Re: Kevin Seraphin Thread - Part II
Mon Dec 10, 2012 10:34 am by veji1

nate33 wrote:
veji1 wrote:Should I say Crawford play is so American, no talent but lots of Balls ? see It doesn't make sense so let's abstain.

Actually, I think that's a perfect description of Crawford.


It is the perfect description of Crawford, except that there is nothing inherintently american about it...but well let's move on.
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Post#7 Re: Kevin Seraphin Thread - Part II
Mon Dec 10, 2012 11:47 am by le crapaud

hands11 wrote:
veji1 wrote:
Hands11 wrote:He could be a truly dominate player if he had the right mind set. He should be grabbing 12 rebounds a game min in his 30 minutes and getting to the line at least 4 times.

But instead, he plays so French. Lots of talent. But he has no Balls. Even when he takes it toward the basket, its finesse stuff. Taking it to the reverse side. The kid has the foot work to get the angle on players. He needs to do that and then go strong to the hoop. Be a man already. Realize how to be a power player.


Dude... I know it is meant in gest but there is nothing "french" in the way he plays... Sure Boris Diaw plays like a delicate princess, but Tony Parker is one of the most reckless player in the league attacking the lane with abandon for more than 10 years while only being a featherweight....

I get what you are trying to say and I concurr, but lets not go into stereotypes... Should I say Crawford play is so American, no talent but lots of Balls ? see It doesn't make sense so let's abstain.

Cheers.


If you know what I meant then just go with that.

To use stereotyping or not, I think we can all decide that on our own. There is nothing inherently bad about stereotyping but God, lets not get into that debate again.


I'm sorry Hands but what you're saying is just vastly irrelevant. You have to take a deep breath and stop reading the stats sheet. I know it's important to have great expectations for young players who are showing promises BUT you have to put things in perspective. Does Kevin hurt this team right now? I really don't think so because he's the only one that is quite good since game 1 this season. You can turn all the stats around, in the mess the wizards are he's the only one to be quite consistent whether you like it or not.

You want him to be dominant and at the same time want to pair him with Crawford...How the hell will it work with a player who is basically jacking up tons of stupid contested shots? Oh yeah, he is great, he has big balls I forgot. To be dominant, Kevin has to be paired with Nene, a guy who actually WANT to pass the ball. Crawford is capable of passing the ball well but only does it when it suits him, he's not team driven like Nene or Kevin are I'm sorry.

In Séraphin you have a great kid, willing to learn and progress. He is basically the best interior on this team on both ends of the floor whether you like it or not. Yet your model for him is...Crawford who can't defend a lick to save his own life. You've got to be kidding me besides the fact that it's just irrelevant to compare an interior and a guard.

So Kevin's game is finesse, what is wrong is that for now? Let him play, he'll get there, he's learning. Wizards wins are not short of a few dunks or free throws from a "so french" player. Everybody has to step up his game, Kevin won't do it by himself. This team has to play a better, a smarter basketball and I'm not sure the first to blame is the guy who handle less the ball.
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Post#8 Re: Kevin Seraphin Thread - Part II
Mon Dec 10, 2012 12:22 pm by hands11

Oh God. lol Talk about vastly irrelevant.

Hey Le. Le Lighten up.

You posted nothing new about Kevin that I haven't posted. Hell, even in the last few pages. Right. He is young. He has made lots of progress. He even had 3x 10 rebounds games in a row. He should keep getting better. Kid could be truely dominate on day. I'm a fan. I'm only frustrated because I know this kid can do so much more.

He can play more of a power game. He can rebound even better and he can get to the line.

Le Message Board posters sometimes post their frustration and what they want to see from players. Even ones they like.

There is no debate to have with me over Kevin and his talent. Only thing going on here is you chiming in about using a stereotype to discribe him like some how using a stereotype is inherently bad.

As for Crawford vs Nene passing. Fine. Put Nene at PG then.
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Post#9 Re: Kevin Seraphin Thread - Part II
Mon Dec 10, 2012 12:47 pm by Nivek

le crapaud wrote:
I'm sorry Hands but what you're saying is just vastly irrelevant.


Good point. ;)

Does Kevin hurt this team right now? I really don't think so because he's the only one that is quite good since game 1 this season. You can turn all the stats around, in the mess the wizards are he's the only one to be quite consistent whether you like it or not.


Yes, he has been hurting the team. In my stat system, he rates a bit below replacement level for the year. Since he doesn't rebound much and he's not a good passer, he needs to be an efficient offensive player. He's not. He's way below average. His shooting is around the league average, but he's a turnover machine and he doesn't get to the FT line.

You want him to be dominant and at the same time want to pair him with Crawford...How the hell will it work with a player who is basically jacking up tons of stupid contested shots? Oh yeah, he is great, he has big balls I forgot. To be dominant, Kevin has to be paired with Nene, a guy who actually WANT to pass the ball. Crawford is capable of passing the ball well but only does it when it suits him, he's not team driven like Nene or Kevin are I'm sorry.


Crawford is back to above average as a player this season. His efficiency is almost to the league average. If the choice is between letting Crawford use a possession and letting Seraphin use a possession, so far this season Crawford has been the better choice.

Plus, Crawford's gunning hasn't affected Seraphin much -- his usage is at a career high. All of that increase in offensive usage is in the form of field goal attempts and turnovers.

In Séraphin you have a great kid, willing to learn and progress. He is basically the best interior on this team on both ends of the floor whether you like it or not. Yet your model for him is...Crawford who can't defend a lick to save his own life. You've got to be kidding me besides the fact that it's just irrelevant to compare an interior and a guard.

So Kevin's game is finesse, what is wrong is that for now? Let him play, he'll get there, he's learning. Wizards wins are not short of a few dunks or free throws from a "so french" player. Everybody has to step up his game, Kevin won't do it by himself. This team has to play a better, a smarter basketball and I'm not sure the first to blame is the guy who handle less the ball.


No argument on Crawford's defense. I don't think Seraphin is the Wizards best defensive big, though. Nene and Okafor are both better defenders. No crime there, just saying. I don't think there's much problem with Seraphin being more of a "finesse" player either -- not everyone has to be a bull. That said, his free throw attempts are woefully low. He's missing out on an opportunity to become more efficient offensively, and he's not helping his teammates (no fouls means the other team isn't getting into the penalty as quickly, it also means he's not putting enough pressure on the defense to force them to foul, AND he's not a good passer so he's not creating open looks out of double-teams).

Seraphin certainly has the ability to be a good NBA player. But he's nowhere close yet.
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Post#10 Re: Kevin Seraphin Thread - Part II
Mon Dec 10, 2012 1:17 pm by le crapaud

Look, what I'm saying is just that of course Kevin has to keep growing. I'm a big fan and I have high expectations for him too because...yeah it's pretty obvious he is a special kid and more importantly a special baller. I think it's just wrong to point his flaws by saying it's because he is soft. He really is not. And yeah that's moronic to say it's because he's french. And it's not that simple. It's a long process and that's all I wanted to point out. Kevin won't be or play like an all star if he man's up, grow a pair or something stupid like that. I mean yeah his numbers are not great, he can be a better rebounder but for the most part he makes sur he has a grip on his man and prefers to box out first than go get those rebounds. Maybe it's a mistake I don't know, I'm not stubborn about this but like I said it's a team effort. If he box out well (which it's the case for the most part) then 50% of the rebound job is done...teammates can go grab them.

@hands : Yeah I'm an idiot I get it...it's ok. Never said I wanted Nene at pg but suit yourself. I'm fine with Crawford at PG actually, but he has to set up his teammates a little better than he is doing right now. I mentionned that he can be a good passer, it's a process for him too but the fact is that Kevin efficiency isn't in great hands since Wall isn't playing and I think he is doing more than ok despise that fact.
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Post#11 Re: Kevin Seraphin Thread - Part II
Mon Dec 10, 2012 1:17 pm by Chocolate City Jordanaire

Seraphin is a young 23 years old. He doesn't get the respect of the officials and he does not try to sell calls. If he did both would get him more FTAs. My inclination would be to stick with Seraphin. Just like a child goes through "terrible two" I think Seraphin is going through a patch of terribly selfish play. He has the perfect teammate to encourage him to keep teeing up shots, Jordan Crawford.

It's no secret, the problem with Seraphin is when he is in the game the Wizards absolutely get killed on the boards. Look at the team offensive rebounds. They dip and the overall rebound percentage go down, and opponent scoring goes way up. (See the bottom figures under On Court / Off Court Stats) Like Nivek said, Seraphin is most certainly hurting the team SO FAR.

http://www.82games.com/1213/12WAS13.HTM

Since he's young and played much better last season, i would look for successful lineups featuring Seraphin. Taking a quick look at the Top-Five Floor Units, Details, I like lineup #17. hands suggested this lineup:

Crawford, Beal, Martin, Seraphin, Nene

That is a "Defense be damned!" unit. What it has been is extremely effective offensively. Having Nene in there were keep Kevin from shot jacking. Crawford at PG and Beal at SG are good rebounders for their position. Cartier is a sure shooter when left open, and he will be with this lineup.

This is the lineup I would like to see the Wizards try moving forward.
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Post#12 Re: Kevin Seraphin Thread - Part II
Mon Dec 10, 2012 2:19 pm by Limo

So French and no balls... Wow.

Yes, there's something "French" in him. You won't turn him to an American aggressive nut. Play him with his own spirit or don't play him. Cause yes, the "soft French spirit" is to do things in the easy way. Why should he make it toughly? To go to the line? Hum, I thought the point was to win game. I love people who think there's rules for how to play and how to win. OK, so, you have to dunk and get to the line? Frankly... wow, you should have keep McGee. The man has terrific balls. For sure, he has zero French spirit. So though, so smart... huh no. Well you want a hopper then. Is it defending to have a lot of blocks, is it attacking to have a lot of dunks and FTs? Not sure. The good teams defend together. You block a shot, and then? you give the ball to the other team for a second chance. Is it that much a impressive mark and is this that much necessary?

Everything is a team work. You can differently and read the stats player by player and try to figure it out who's responsible for a bad defense and who don't rebound. So, when the other team misses a shot, it's the center to get the ball? it's not others problem? OK. And if the center boxes out, how could he takes the ball? Does he need to stop boxing out and think to his own stats? or this is to others to participate to the effort boxing out too and try to be concerned by the rebound? But OK, if the American spirit is to let one center do the job for the all the team, show his muscles, and get vain blocks, OK, that's your problem. You will have a lot of very individual and "effective" players, a lot of good stats and you will keep loosing.

You should try to watch the game with a new perspective and stop watch them behind the blinders of stats. Sure, it could help to understand your trouble to win games, but actually, there's only one stat which is important, it's the scoring numbers. Doesn't care how you do it, you have to be ahead. You can try to hunt for specific aims, you can think than some aspect are more important than others, but I'm really not sure that if you succeed in these specific eras that it wouldn't affect other aspect of your game and help you to win games. I think it's more simple than that. You want to defend? everybody should be concerned. You want to rebound? same. You want to make shots? found the easy way, share the ball. Crawford can have balls, well, there still has one ball on the game. You want to go to the line? fine; but others just play the game to win it in the easy way, no more. This "to go to the line more" is bs. Sure it could be an important aspect, but do you truly think to a player who plays with his best moves, the hook and the outside/quick shot, will go to the line? or should? Yes, come on Kevin, start to play with moves that you're not comfortable with but at least you will get to the line! Let him play his game, not other one game. And try to play as a team. In good teams, everyone knows what his role, but you won't play with someone else skills. If you're a PG but can't shoot 3s, do you HAVE to shoot 3s? Or do you play on your skills (like Tony Parker for instance).

If the Wiz want to start wining game (do they?) they have to start to think as a team, not individually. You can play with 5 players with enormous American patriot balls, the result would be the same: you share just one ball.

Good luck for your lottery pick.
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Post#13 Re: Kevin Seraphin Thread - Part II
Mon Dec 10, 2012 2:22 pm by tontoz

We have to keep in mind that Seraphin didn't start playing at all until he was 15. He still has a lot to learn. He has two gaping holes in his game (rebounding and not attacking the rim) that badly limit his effectiveness.

He certainly has the potential to be a good player but those two areas have to be addressed for that to happen. His issues have nothing to do with anyone else on the team. Early last year he was not getting touches. Now he is getting plenty of touches no matter who is in the game with him.
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Post#14 Re: Kevin Seraphin Thread - Part II
Mon Dec 10, 2012 2:27 pm by Chocolate City Jordanaire

Limo wrote:If the Wiz want to start wining game (do they?) they have to start to think as a team, not individually. You can play with 5 players with enormous American patriot balls, the result would be the same: you share just one ball.

Good luck for your lottery pick.


:lol:

***I don't think there is very much wrong with Seraphin at all that time won't fix. I am not worried about his rebounding or his "French Spirit". He needs to score more efficiently and I think he will. If he stays in America long enough, maybe he can develop "patriot balls". :)
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Post#15 Re: Kevin Seraphin Thread - Part II
Mon Dec 10, 2012 2:54 pm by Chocolate City Jordanaire

The notion that Kevin Seraphin is not tough is mind boggling to me. The guy does not generally fight for position and he needs to do one million Mikan drills, perhaps. Those can easily be learned. Part of what a young player like Kevin should be doing is watching all kinds of video and learning. He can probably grab 2 more boards a game--which would be very significant--just by learning positioning and some tricks. He also needs to get in better and better condition and to become high motor at both ends.

This is the kind of stuff I think Seraphin should learn if he doesn't already know it.

http://www.breakthroughbasketball.com/d ... drill.html
Kevin has the finesse moves down, but the rebounding emphasis and work inside would increase his boards by adding some physical play.

http://tlorc.wordpress.com/2010/11/30/k ... ebounding/
This diagrams one team's adjustments to rebound better. A young player like Kevin could learn to scout the other team's offensive rebounders and put a body on them. Okafor I am sure know this well and I would hope if he can benefit the team in the way Leonsis and EG hope it will be as a teacher. Just putting a body on the other team's rebounders and having the guards crash would help. Kevin needs to know better than to just shoot and not follow his shot or block out.

http://on.aol.com/video/how-to-play-bas ... _related_1
This is a nice drill that pits players one-on-one to rebound and power the ball back up.

http://on.aol.com/video/how-to-play-bas ... _related_5
Tricks on rebounding FTs.
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Post#16 Re: Kevin Seraphin Thread - Part II
Mon Dec 10, 2012 3:08 pm by Chocolate City Jordanaire

hands11 wrote: [Kevin Seraphin] is young. He has made lots of progress. He even had 3x 10 rebounds games in a row. He should keep getting better. Kid could be truely dominate on day. I'm a fan. I'm only frustrated because I know this kid can do so much more.

He can play more of a power game. He can rebound even better and he can get to the line.


:nod:

EG is a good judge of talent. Seraphin can play. The question is will fans and front office be patient long enough to see him play his best?

Kevin can be a nightmare at PF IMO. His rebounding and shooting will make him an asset. PFs are much more likely to struggle to guard Seraphin. He is too big and strong for them. Note his stats as a PF vs C from last season.

http://www.82games.com/1112/11WAS15.HTM
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Post#17 Re: Kevin Seraphin Thread - Part II
Mon Dec 10, 2012 6:38 pm by hands11

le crapaud wrote:Look, what I'm saying is just that of course Kevin has to keep growing. I'm a big fan and I have high expectations for him too because...yeah it's pretty obvious he is a special kid and more importantly a special baller. I think it's just wrong to point his flaws by saying it's because he is soft. He really is not. And yeah that's moronic to say it's because he's french. And it's not that simple. It's a long process and that's all I wanted to point out. Kevin won't be or play like an all star if he man's up, grow a pair or something stupid like that. I mean yeah his numbers are not great, he can be a better rebounder but for the most part he makes sur he has a grip on his man and prefers to box out first than go get those rebounds. Maybe it's a mistake I don't know, I'm not stubborn about this but like I said it's a team effort. If he box out well (which it's the case for the most part) then 50% of the rebound job is done...teammates can go grab them.

@hands : Yeah I'm an idiot I get it...it's ok. Never said I wanted Nene at pg but suit yourself. I'm fine with Crawford at PG actually, but he has to set up his teammates a little better than he is doing right now. I mentionned that he can be a good passer, it's a process for him too but the fact is that Kevin efficiency isn't in great hands since Wall isn't playing and I think he is doing more than ok despise that fact.


Look. If there is one thing I have learned its that these back and forths don't usually go anywhere. If you have read my posts on Kevin you know I support the kids talent. I just want him to play like he is 6-9 275 and athletic more.

I never said it was because he was French. I said stop playing so French... lol

It was a rant. I wouldn't take it like I don't like Kevin. He needs to get to the line more. That mean doing something different then he is. Right now he has great moves to get his shot off clean and those moves are generally away from the basket. He needs to add moves toward the basket. He needs a pump fake. He needs to power dunk. When he adds that. Kid should be a beast.

Then you went on to bust on Crawford saying he wasn't a team player. Crawfords AST% is 30.8 up from 19.3 last season.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/pla ... fjo02.html

With Crawford and Kevin on the floor together you have two legit shooters. One inside to mid range and one ball in hand creator. They compliment each other well and with the two of them together, the other pieces would work better. This team as one first option guard and two first option post players.

Crawford, Kevin and Nene. As such, Crawford should be playing 40 minutes a game. And that has been true since the start of the season.
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Post#18 Re: Kevin Seraphin Thread - Part II
Mon Dec 10, 2012 6:55 pm by hands11

Limo wrote:So French and no balls... Wow.

Yes, there's something "French" in him. You won't turn him to an American aggressive nut. Play him with his own spirit or don't play him. Cause yes, the "soft French spirit" is to do things in the easy way. Why should he make it toughly? To go to the line? Hum, I thought the point was to win game. I love people who think there's rules for how to play and how to win. OK, so, you have to dunk and get to the line? Frankly... wow, you should have keep McGee. The man has terrific balls. For sure, he has zero French spirit. So though, so smart... huh no. Well you want a hopper then. Is it defending to have a lot of blocks, is it attacking to have a lot of dunks and FTs? Not sure. The good teams defend together. You block a shot, and then? you give the ball to the other team for a second chance. Is it that much a impressive mark and is this that much necessary?

Everything is a team work. You can differently and read the stats player by player and try to figure it out who's responsible for a bad defense and who don't rebound. So, when the other team misses a shot, it's the center to get the ball? it's not others problem? OK. And if the center boxes out, how could he takes the ball? Does he need to stop boxing out and think to his own stats? or this is to others to participate to the effort boxing out too and try to be concerned by the rebound? But OK, if the American spirit is to let one center do the job for the all the team, show his muscles, and get vain blocks, OK, that's your problem. You will have a lot of very individual and "effective" players, a lot of good stats and you will keep loosing.

You should try to watch the game with a new perspective and stop watch them behind the blinders of stats. Sure, it could help to understand your trouble to win games, but actually, there's only one stat which is important, it's the scoring numbers. Doesn't care how you do it, you have to be ahead. You can try to hunt for specific aims, you can think than some aspect are more important than others, but I'm really not sure that if you succeed in these specific eras that it wouldn't affect other aspect of your game and help you to win games. I think it's more simple than that. You want to defend? everybody should be concerned. You want to rebound? same. You want to make shots? found the easy way, share the ball. Crawford can have balls, well, there still has one ball on the game. You want to go to the line? fine; but others just play the game to win it in the easy way, no more. This "to go to the line more" is bs. Sure it could be an important aspect, but do you truly think to a player who plays with his best moves, the hook and the outside/quick shot, will go to the line? or should? Yes, come on Kevin, start to play with moves that you're not comfortable with but at least you will get to the line! Let him play his game, not other one game. And try to play as a team. In good teams, everyone knows what his role, but you won't play with someone else skills. If you're a PG but can't shoot 3s, do you HAVE to shoot 3s? Or do you play on your skills (like Tony Parker for instance).

If the Wiz want to start wining game (do they?) they have to start to think as a team, not individually. You can play with 5 players with enormous American patriot balls, the result would be the same: you share just one ball.

Good luck for your lottery pick.


I have no idea who you are responding to because it isn't too any posts I have seen here. Talk about taking things wildly out of context.

In review.

He has shown a ton of growth. He is a good kid. The baby hooks are awesome and the mid range looks very good. He is decisive with his moves which is good. He even has a pretty quick release. He is 23 and has come a long way.

He is also 275 6-9 and athletic. That is kind of unique on this team. He needs to rebound better. Boxing out is good. Grabbing the rebound is better. He needs to go strong to the basket. Not to look good. He needs to do it to get fouled and pressure the defense. That gets their bigs off the floor and it gives him easy shoots from the line which will increase his efficiency.

Right now all his moves are away from the basket. Now do that move and stop half way. Let the defender lean off balance then go straight up and get the foul. When he is close to the basket, he need to go up or fake and go up. Right now he is going for the opposite side of the rim away from players like Dray would do in the past. Scoring and getting fouled or getting fouled and going to the line is worth more then just 2pts and no foul. He isn't Stefan Curry. He is Kevin S 6-9 275. I want him to play like it.
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Post#19 Re: Kevin Seraphin Thread - Part II
Mon Dec 10, 2012 8:31 pm by payitforward

Chocolate City Jordanaire wrote:Kevin can be a nightmare at PF IMO. His rebounding and shooting will make him an asset.

??
His rebounding is in the bottom 20-25% of all power forwards who play 20+ minutes a game.
His eFG% is a bit below average among all power forwards who play 20+ minutes a game.

I guess that's a nightmare, but not the way you mean it.
People say I'm mellowing with age. Nah.

It is still not possible to formulate a counter-argument -- even if I say... Is so!
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Post#20 Re: Kevin Seraphin Thread - Part II
Mon Dec 10, 2012 11:25 pm by hands11

payitforward wrote:
Chocolate City Jordanaire wrote:Kevin can be a nightmare at PF IMO. His rebounding and shooting will make him an asset.

??
His rebounding is in the bottom 20-25% of all power forwards who play 20+ minutes a game.
His eFG% is a bit below average among all power forwards who play 20+ minutes a game.



I think he is saying it will, post light bulb going on. He is a good shooter. If/when he learns to get to the line more, his eFG will go up. If/when he starts to rebound better.

Can be = project positive statement about his identifiable potential that poster thinks he can reach

Will = A statement about the future
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