yardbarker

NCAA Wiretap Headlines

Kevin Seraphin Thread - Part II

Moderators: LyricalRico, pineappleheadindc, WizStorm, nate33, miller31time

Post#21 Re: Kevin Seraphin Thread - Part II
Tue Dec 11, 2012 12:31 am by montestewart

To some degree of possible certitude, Seraphin may or may not be a nightmarish asset.
montestewart
General Manager
Posts: 7,848
And1: 846
Joined: Feb 24, 2009
Top

Post#22 Re: Kevin Seraphin Thread - Part II
Tue Dec 11, 2012 6:51 am by Limo

hands11 wrote: He is Kevin S 6-9 275. I want him to play like it.

You want him to play like a player who doesn't exist. You don't win game by dreaming on what you could have. Sure it would be nice to see Kevin be able to go to line, go to the basket aggressively; but at the moment it's not the case. You point it out like he was responsible of those losses. Kevin has already made tremendous progress and you still want him to perfect his game? Why not, you always can make progress but ask more at this point it's unfair cause he's not the reason of the troubles of the team.

You want a stereotype player in your team. Will you ask to Dirk to block shots? Will you ask Howard to make his FTs?^ You have to do with what you have.

How do you want Kevin to go to the line more? The hook shot is done to avoid contact, you avoid contact to have uncontested shots. The quick outside shot is by definition an uncontested shot, you won't have foul on it. So what, because you have decide that to win games you should go to the line, Kevin has to create contact i.e take uncomfortable shots? Does he need to handle the ball more? It would mean more TOs. Does he need to hustle, going more on the offensive rebound? Yeah, this is what he tried to do, then it was more something like an offensive foul. Does he need to cut to the basket? well, you do it with a good playmaker and I'm not sure that Kevin is enough quick for that and even lucid to avoid himself offensive fouls. Yes, he's 6'9 and big but he's not that much quick to make it. Does he need to pump and pump? Why not, but it seems that he needs his rhythm to shot. For now, he needs the confidence, the clean shot and his rhythm. Sure he can work in all these aspects to get better, but he's already making a good job in his comfort zone and shots, why do you want to try to make him play like somebody else? It doesn't make any sense.

Yes Kevin is 6-9 275, but Kevin is Kevin. He doesn't play like Howard, he doesn't play like Macgee; he plays like Kevin. He has to work on what there's some potential improvements. If you work on something but in exchange you lose your own game,I don't see the progress, mostly if you just do it because you have decided as it was one of the ten commandments for a NBA player, that a big needed to go to the line. Ironically, another commandments would be at the other side to "send him to the FT line -- no easy basket". I, I have on principle: try to make the game easily, i.e play in your comfort zone, don't do when you don't know how to do. Religions quarrel: I won't go to your church.

Kevin can make a lot of progress, but he has already made a lot. He's one of two or three talented player in this team, start to moan about other players, Kevin is not the right target.
Limo


Sophomore
User avatar
Posts: 161
And1: 3
Joined: Jun 30, 2008
Location: Paris
Top

Post#23 Re: Kevin Seraphin Thread - Part II
Tue Dec 11, 2012 8:44 am by payitforward

hands11 wrote:
payitforward wrote:
Chocolate City Jordanaire wrote:Kevin can be a nightmare at PF IMO. His rebounding and shooting will make him an asset.

??
His rebounding is in the bottom 20-25% of all power forwards who play 20+ minutes a game.
His eFG% is a bit below average among all power forwards who play 20+ minutes a game.



I think he is saying it will, post light bulb going on. ... Can be = project positive statement about ...potential ...A statement about the future

Good point. Fair enough....
People say I'm mellowing with age. Nah.

It is still not possible to formulate a counter-argument -- even if I say... Is so!
payitforward
Veteran
Posts: 2,889
And1: 364
Joined: May 1, 2012
Top

Post#24 Re: Kevin Seraphin Thread - Part II
Tue Dec 11, 2012 8:52 am by payitforward

Limo wrote:
hands11 wrote: He is Kevin S 6-9 275. I want him to play like it.

You want him to play like a player who doesn't exist.

You want a stereotype player in your team. Will you ask to Dirk to block shots? Will you ask Howard to make his FTs?^ You have to do with what you have.

How do you want Kevin to go to the line more? ... Does he need to cut to the basket? ... not sure that Kevin is enough quick for that and even lucid to avoid himself offensive fouls. Yes, he's 6'9 and big but he's not that much quick to make it.

..Kevin is Kevin. He doesn't play like Howard, he doesn't play like Macgee; he plays like Kevin. He has to work on what there's some potential improvements. If you work on something but in exchange you lose your own game,I don't see the progress, mostly if you just do it because you have decided as it was one of the ten commandments for a NBA player, that a big needed to go to the line. Ironically, another commandments would be at the other side to "send him to the FT line -- no easy basket". I, I have on principle: try to make the game easily, i.e play in your comfort zone, don't do when you don't know how to do. Religions quarrel: I won't go to your church.

Kevin can make a lot of progress, but he has already made a lot. He's one of two or three talented player in this team, start to moan about other players, Kevin is not the right target.

These are all extremely good points. In particular, they are *real* as opposed to idealized, if-only-style hopes. At the same time, we really need to see a bit more rapid progress in the areas where he *does* have potential.

Kevin's in his third year. As I've said before, the older a player gets the closer he gets to his ceiling; therefore the higher he is now the higher his ceiling is. Most players in the league peak at about 25, then play on a plateau for a few years, then begin to decline. There are exceptions, of course, guys who peak later, guys who play longer at their peak. But the overall rule still holds.
People say I'm mellowing with age. Nah.

It is still not possible to formulate a counter-argument -- even if I say... Is so!
payitforward
Veteran
Posts: 2,889
And1: 364
Joined: May 1, 2012
Top

Post#25 Re: Kevin Seraphin Thread - Part II
Tue Dec 11, 2012 9:20 am by willbcocks

Has there been any analysis on the development of big men vs guards? There's a common saying that big men develop more slowly, and young bigs should be given more time, but is this actually the case?

I was ready to give up on KSera last year at this time. He looked terrible. Since then his defense has improved dramatically and he has developed two good offensive tools: a 15-18 foot jump shot and a short jump hook.

He seems to work hard and wants to improve. He will have time for extra practice/minutes with the French team over the summer. I think we're likely to see incremental improvement in his game for a couple years, especially in the area of passing/turnovers. You can tell he's trying new ways to protect the ball and recognize double teams, but that feel for the game takes a while and he hasn't been playing top-level basketball long enough.

Rebounding and aggressive moves at the basket--I hope those will improve but I'm less confident.
willbcocks
Analyst
User avatar
Posts: 3,390
And1: 15
Joined: Mar 16, 2003
Location: Wall-E has come to save Washington!
Top

Post#26 Re: Kevin Seraphin Thread - Part II
Tue Dec 11, 2012 9:28 am by Nivek

will: That's a great question. I sorta remember someone over at APBRmetrics doing some research along these lines. My guess is either MikeG or Kevin Pelton. I've pinged the group to see if there's anything on this.
"A lot of what we call talent is the desire to practice."
-- Malcolm Gladwell

Check out my blog about the Wizards, movies, writing, music, TV, sports, and whatever else comes to mind.
Nivek





Head Coach
User avatar
Posts: 6,767
And1: 641
Joined: Sep 29, 2010
Top

Post#27 Re: Kevin Seraphin Thread - Part II
Tue Dec 11, 2012 9:35 am by tontoz

I don't think Seraphin was as bad early last year as some thought. I just think he wasn't getting enough minutes, touches to be comfortable out there. I think he already had a hook/jumper but didn't have the opportunity to show it.

Now that he is getting plenty of time/touches it is more a matter of developing his game. He is saying the right things but the proof is what happens on the floor. I have yet to see him get the ball in post, face up and make a strong drive to the basket. Even when he gets an offensive rebound close to the basket he is more inclined to fade away instead of moving towards the rim and trying to dunk.
tontoz
RealGM
User avatar
Posts: 12,994
And1: 430
Joined: Apr 10, 2005
Top

Post#28 Re: Kevin Seraphin Thread - Part II
Tue Dec 11, 2012 10:52 am by Chocolate City Jordanaire

payitforward wrote:
Chocolate City Jordanaire wrote:Kevin can be a nightmare at PF IMO. His rebounding and shooting will make him an asset.

??
His rebounding is in the bottom 20-25% of all power forwards who play 20+ minutes a game.
His eFG% is a bit below average among all power forwards who play 20+ minutes a game.

I guess that's a nightmare, but not the way you mean it.


pif, see Seraphin's 2011-2012 48-Minute Player Production By Position, PF and C stats.

http://www.82games.com/1112/11WAS15.HTM

When he played with Nene, Kevin Seraphin was listed as the PF.

Last season, he out-rebounded, out-scored, and converted a significantly higher FG percentage than his counterpart PF.

Seraphin's net rebounds per-48 were 12.2 vs 10.5, or +1.7. His net points per-48 were 22.7 vs 17.6, or +5.1. His net eFG at PF was .654 vs .457, or +.194.

Based on the above I think Kevin at PF can be a very effective player. Did I misinterpret something?
Will the Wizards' success be sustained or was it fool's gold?
Chocolate City Jordanaire
RealGM
User avatar
Posts: 31,647
And1: 484
Joined: Aug 4, 2001
Location: Ft. Washington, MD/Mililani, HI
Top

Post#29 Re: Kevin Seraphin Thread - Part II
Tue Dec 11, 2012 11:00 am by nate33

Chocolate City Jordanaire wrote:
payitforward wrote:
Chocolate City Jordanaire wrote:Kevin can be a nightmare at PF IMO. His rebounding and shooting will make him an asset.

??
His rebounding is in the bottom 20-25% of all power forwards who play 20+ minutes a game.
His eFG% is a bit below average among all power forwards who play 20+ minutes a game.

I guess that's a nightmare, but not the way you mean it.


pif, look at Seraphin's 2011-2012 48-Minute Player Production By Position, PF and C stats.

http://www.82games.com/1112/11WAS15.HTM

When he played with Nene, Kevin Seraphin was listed as the PF.

He out-rebounded, out-scored, and converted a significantly higher FG percentage than his counterpart PF.

While I don't disagree that he might be better off alongside Nene, it's worth noting that the data you cite has a paltry sample size of roughly 150 minutes. Also, he is not producing at PF like that this year (though he has hardly played alongside Nene at all).
nate33
Forum Mod - Wizards
Forum Mod - Wizards
User avatar
Posts: 38,807
And1: 1,149
Joined: Oct 27, 2002
Top

Post#30 Re: Kevin Seraphin Thread - Part II
Tue Dec 11, 2012 11:03 am by Nivek

1) Position designations at 82games aren't good. They're not based on actual intel on the team's rotation, but rather on height.

2) Even if the position designation is correct, the sample size is small -- about 190 minutes.

3) Even if the position designation is correct and we ignore the small sample size, the difference is almost exclusively in FG%. (He also got an additional rebound per 48 minutes.)

I'm not poo-pooing the idea of Seraphin playing some at PF. But those numbers don't really offer much support for the idea.
"A lot of what we call talent is the desire to practice."
-- Malcolm Gladwell

Check out my blog about the Wizards, movies, writing, music, TV, sports, and whatever else comes to mind.
Nivek





Head Coach
User avatar
Posts: 6,767
And1: 641
Joined: Sep 29, 2010
Top

Post#31 Re: Kevin Seraphin Thread - Part II
Tue Dec 11, 2012 11:07 am by Chocolate City Jordanaire

Nivek wrote:1) Position designations at 82games aren't good. They're not based on actual intel on the team's rotation, but rather on height.

2) Even if the position designation is correct, the sample size is small -- about 190 minutes.

3) Even if the position designation is correct and we ignore the small sample size, the difference is almost exclusively in FG%. (He also got an additional rebound per 48 minutes.)

I'm not poo-pooing the idea of Seraphin playing some at PF. But those numbers don't really offer much support for the idea.


Thanks. I have my mind made up but it's nice to be informed. So those stats mean diddly poo! Thank goodness for intelligent, rational, fact-based folks like Nivek to balance us intuitive folk. :)

To me, the Wizards were dumb not to try McGee with Seraphin and they should be looking at Alex Len or even Jeff Withey at C to play next to Seraphin. Kevin is best at PF. He's Antoine Carr/Ben Coleman but bigger and more agile than either player.

I don't know why but to me it should be intuitively obvious to others that Kevin Seraphin would be a beast at PF.
Will the Wizards' success be sustained or was it fool's gold?
Chocolate City Jordanaire
RealGM
User avatar
Posts: 31,647
And1: 484
Joined: Aug 4, 2001
Location: Ft. Washington, MD/Mililani, HI
Top

Post#32 Re: Kevin Seraphin Thread - Part II
Tue Dec 11, 2012 11:30 am by Chocolate City Jordanaire

Since 82 games is based on height, per Nivek, then Kevin with Vesely always makes Kevin the PF in 82 games statistical breakdowns.

Last season, the two players taller that Kevin played with were Nene and Vesely. Seraphin's PF stats were really good last season. Unfortunately, the dumb Okafor trade has prevented much time for Vesely with Seraphin this season. See lineups 10 and 16 this season of Vesely with Seraphin, and lineup 17 for Nene with Seraphin:

http://www.82games.com/1213/12WAS13.HTM

Very small sample size, but last season showed many instances where Vesely with Seraphin was a good combination for the Wizards. Virtually every Vesely/Seraphin lineup did well last season:

http://www.82games.com/1112/11WAS15.HTM

The Wizards could effectively start Crawford, Beal, Singleton, Vesely, and Seraphin to get all their young players the most game experience. They can come in with their veterans as needed off the bench. I think this would get Vesely out of his funk real fast.
Will the Wizards' success be sustained or was it fool's gold?
Chocolate City Jordanaire
RealGM
User avatar
Posts: 31,647
And1: 484
Joined: Aug 4, 2001
Location: Ft. Washington, MD/Mililani, HI
Top

Post#33 Re: Kevin Seraphin Thread - Part II
Tue Dec 11, 2012 11:47 am by Nivek

Looking at this year's data, they might have changed the approach to position designation. They always list the center last and in those Vesely-Seraphin pairings, Seraphin is last. So, they have him at center there. But, then they have Nene listed at center when paired with Seraphin, and that doesn't seem right. The only time they don't list Nene at center is when he's playing with Okafor.

Just guessing here, but Roland probably got tired of people (like me) complaining about the position designations and went with a "most center" system. So, the guy who's "most center" is listed at center, the next guy at PF, the next at SF and so on. That would be an improvement on the old height-based system, but still not all that good.

I'm trying to think about who defends whom when Nene and Seraphin are on the floor together. It could be that Seraphin is at PF and Nene at C. Might be the other way around. In all honesty, the position designations don't matter all that much. Matchups matter a lot less than the standard analysis would have us believe. The game isn't 5 1-on-1 contests, it's a single game of 5-on-5.

I'll pay more attention next time I see Nene and Seraphin on the floor together. Ultimately, I don't think there's that much distinction between PF and C, at least in terms of the way these guys play the positions. Neither is a stretch 4. They're both inside players regardless of whether they're called PF or C.
"A lot of what we call talent is the desire to practice."
-- Malcolm Gladwell

Check out my blog about the Wizards, movies, writing, music, TV, sports, and whatever else comes to mind.
Nivek





Head Coach
User avatar
Posts: 6,767
And1: 641
Joined: Sep 29, 2010
Top

Post#34 Re: Kevin Seraphin Thread - Part II
Tue Dec 11, 2012 1:59 pm by hands11

tontoz wrote:I don't think Seraphin was as bad early last year as some thought. I just think he wasn't getting enough minutes, touches to be comfortable out there. I think he already had a hook/jumper but didn't have the opportunity to show it.

Now that he is getting plenty of time/touches it is more a matter of developing his game. He is saying the right things but the proof is what happens on the floor. I have yet to see him get the ball in post, face up and make a strong drive to the basket. Even when he gets an offensive rebound close to the basket he is more inclined to fade away instead of moving towards the rim and trying to dunk.


Exactly. The progress will come in stages. I actually did see him make a move toward the hoop last games, but he went to the backside of the rim. Again, avoiding the contact but he did make the shot.

Point is, he has proven he can score. The next stage is scoring pts while causing the other team to foul him.
Free shots at the line plus a foul is worth more then just 2pts.

Hell, I would even tell him, we realize you might get called for a charge now an again. But if someone wants to set up in front of your 275 lbs going to the hoop, take it strong and make them think twice before wanting to do that again. I would gladly give up 1 foul a game to see him make that move.

Anyone of you remember the first KS interview where he pounded his hand into his fist and said he like to play aggressive ? We need to see more of that Kevin.

But at a min, he needs to rebound better and more consistent.
Step by Step - viewtopic.php?f=35&t=1269473&start=45&p=36843686&view=show#p36843686

Why so many poster have hotties as avatars. If anything screams can't get any, that would be it.
hands11
RealGM
User avatar
Posts: 24,713
And1: 1,186
Joined: May 15, 2005
Top

Post#35 Re: Kevin Seraphin Thread - Part II
Fri Dec 14, 2012 12:32 am by hands11

http://espn.go.com/nba/player/_/id/4289/kevin-seraphin

In his third year, this kid simply has to step it up and become more consistent.

http://espn.go.com/nba/player/stats/_/i ... n-seraphin

Year 3 is a good time to show some major improvement if you plan on being an impact player.
Step by Step - viewtopic.php?f=35&t=1269473&start=45&p=36843686&view=show#p36843686

Why so many poster have hotties as avatars. If anything screams can't get any, that would be it.
hands11
RealGM
User avatar
Posts: 24,713
And1: 1,186
Joined: May 15, 2005
Top

Post#36 Re: Kevin Seraphin Thread - Part II
Fri Dec 14, 2012 10:14 pm by hands11

LA game.

Kevin started really rough but rebounded to have a pretty decent game.

I saw some nice rebounds from him. End up with 8 but in 37 minutes, you would expect more then that.

8-14 from the field 1 FTA 16 pts

Nene, he had 12 FTA in 22 minutes 17 pts.

Randy said in the post game that Kevin needs to get to the line more and that he is practicing again Nene. That is good to hear and that is one of the huge benefits of having Nene healthy and on the court.

Give me hope that Kevin can still be a beast. Nene will teach him and toughen him up. The kid did have 2 dunks tonight.

I saw some toughness in Martins eyes tonight as well. Maybe he can still make something of himself. Give him the start and see what he can do.
Step by Step - viewtopic.php?f=35&t=1269473&start=45&p=36843686&view=show#p36843686

Why so many poster have hotties as avatars. If anything screams can't get any, that would be it.
hands11
RealGM
User avatar
Posts: 24,713
And1: 1,186
Joined: May 15, 2005
Top

Post#37 Re: Kevin Seraphin Thread - Part II
Fri Dec 14, 2012 10:58 pm by Knighthonor

hands11 wrote:LA game.

Kevin started really rough but rebounded to have a pretty decent game.

I saw some nice rebounds from him. End up with 8 but in 37 minutes, you would expect more then that.

8-14 from the field 1 FTA 16 pts

Nene, he had 12 FTA in 22 minutes 17 pts.

Randy said in the post game that Kevin needs to get to the line more and that he is practicing again Nene. That is good to hear and that is one of the huge benefits of having Nene healthy and on the court.

Give me hope that Kevin can still be a beast. Nene will teach him and toughen him up. The kid did have 2 dunks tonight.

I saw some toughness in Martins eyes tonight as well. Maybe he can still make something of himself. Give him the start and see what he can do.

Well honestly, I felt like the Refs gave the lakers the game. Cant get calls if refs wont give it to you.
Knighthonor
Sixth Man
User avatar
Posts: 1,787
And1: 80
Joined: Feb 15, 2012
Top

Post#38 Re: Kevin Seraphin Thread - Part II
Sat Dec 15, 2012 1:25 am by hands11

You ignore that Nene got to the line.
Step by Step - viewtopic.php?f=35&t=1269473&start=45&p=36843686&view=show#p36843686

Why so many poster have hotties as avatars. If anything screams can't get any, that would be it.
hands11
RealGM
User avatar
Posts: 24,713
And1: 1,186
Joined: May 15, 2005
Top

Post#39 Re: Kevin Seraphin Thread - Part II
Sat Dec 15, 2012 1:31 am by AFM

My beef with Seraphin is that he's the PF/C version of Nick Young, Dude never passes it back out. Man, tonight one play he attracted a triple team and I was screaming "NO NO NO NO NO!!!!" and this dude shot it anyway. WTF.
WizarDynasty wrote:Ted is trying to transform you from a bullet .....piece of metal shot from a gin into a wizard....wise.... wisest fans in the .ba. board has a long way to go but ee have wise wizard posters to guide into Ted the savior rescue operation.
AFM
Starter
User avatar
Posts: 2,265
And1: 773
Joined: May 25, 2012
Top

Post#40 Re: Kevin Seraphin Thread - Part II
Fri Dec 21, 2012 11:38 pm by closg00

Wittman yelled at Seraphin for not being in rebound position, then he stood alone, flabbergasted. Wittman then drew up a play for Seraphin on the next possession but Seraphin had his jump hook blocked by Maxiell. When Wittman pulled Seraphin shortly thereafter, he got in Seraphin’s face and shouted, “You just got your shot blocked by a small forward!” He demanded that Seraphin play with more force. His demand was not met.


Randy must have quite an ulcer.
Guys on a message board could do a better job managing the Wizards than Ernie Grunfeld.
closg00
RealGM
User avatar
Posts: 14,838
And1: 191
Joined: Nov 21, 2004
Top

PreviousNext

Return to Washington Wizards


Who is online

Users browsing this forum: Kanyewest, nuposse04, WallWithTheDime