Kevin Seraphin Thread - Part II

[montestewart]

Don't they have Cartier at PF and Booker at C?

[hands11]

http://sports.yahoo.com/nba/teams/was/roster

At least Yahoo lists players who are multi position players.

Nene and Kevin are PF/C

Okafor is a center

Temple is a PG/SG

[penbeast0]

tontoz is talking reading comprehension, hands is discussing multiplication players (?) . . . . I feel like I'm back at school.

[hands11]

^^^

Read everything and comprehend my friend . You can't just pick one thing and try to frame that to make it my entire point. Doesn't work that way.

So since ESPN has Ves as a SF ( which is how he arrived yet never plays there this year ) .. that means everyone they have listed is wrong ? Good logic.


.

Speaking of reading comprehension where did i say all ESPN listings are wrong?

I am saying is that they are basically irrelevant. Josh Smith has been the starting 4 for the Hawks almost all the time since 2007 yet they have him listed as a 3.

When Seraphin has spent time as a 4 he has been playing out of position, and doing a poor job of it. Playing Seraphin at the 4 is like playing Booker or Vesely at the 3.

I guess you missed what I was doing there. I was using your own style on agreement against you. lol

Look. I already said it as clear as can be. He is both. That is an NBA fact. You might not think he is good at PF. That is a different point.

I'm getting off the merry go round.

[Deeptu McPullup]

*Forced bump with regrets*

I didn't actually want to bump an amazingly sucky thread, but it seems the previous Seraphin thread got to 99 pages and was locked without anyone bothering to create a new one. I have a pet theory on why that might be, but I'm afraid it's 'Insider only' content. PM me for payment details.

viewtopic.php?f=35&t=1023277&start=1470

Is there another Seraphin thread I'm overlooking? I was thinking "I could create a new one...", but do I really want to be the guy to do that? What if I created one and it turned out there was already a thread and mine got locked? Then I'd have created a new thread that got locked for the sake of Kevin Seraphin, of all people.

Feeling trapped, I decided that despite some reservations, the best course of action was to bump this up. I'm so very sorry, Kevin's mom.

That out of the way, there was some news:

Also off subject, but this is encouraging about Seraphin...
http://www.csnwashington.com/basketball ... ional-team

The Wizards held workouts Wednesday for late-round draft prospects, but Kevin Seraphin was able to get in some training and confirmed to CSN Washington that he would not join the French national team.

Wittman also wants to see Seraphin be a better rebounder. He has never averaged more than 4.9 per game.

"I know he expects a lot from me," Seraphin said the day after the Wizards ended the regular season on a six-game losing streak. "He thinks I can be really great. He already tells me that so that's why he is like that with me."

I would propose that - should nobody be willing to create a new Seraphin thread - we rename this one something like this:

The though I was highly discouraged by Seraphin's play last year it costs us nothing to keep him around through the end of his rookie deal and if he dropped 20 pounds he might establish himself as a legit rotation big for us so I'd just as soon keep him if he's not required in a larger deal on draft night thread

Commas and periods in thread titles are for wankers, but Mods, feel free to plop a colon in there if you see a good landing spot. Colon's in thread titles give off a nice "THIS IS A BIG F'ING DEAL" luster and you might even be able to work it as a double entendre.

[nate33]

I moved it, Deeptu. Of course, now your preamble makes a lot less sense.

[dobrojim]

better rebounding
better reaction to 2x teams
fewer jumpers or more makes on the ones he takes or just more dunks where he
simply bullies to the rim

some combination of at least 2 of those things and I think you have an acceptable
3rd big/first big off the bench and maybe even a long term replacement for when
Nene/Ok depart.

otherwise meh

[rockymac52]

I just want to say that I very recently changed my mind on Seraphin. I'm not ready to give up on him yet.

Singleton and Vesely are both terrible and show no signs of improving. This will almost undoubtedly be their last season in DC, and for good reason. Good riddance! But Seraphin does not belong in the same category as those two.

Seraphin has at least shown us some talents in his first three seasons. His first season he was incredibly raw and simply wasn't ready for the NBA. No big deal, we all expected that. His second season he improved a ton and started playing regular minutes, especially at the end of the season when we traded away our front court and dealt with injuries there. Seraphin was a very good defensive player as a sophomore, and showed some promise offensively. But then he regressed in his 3rd season.

The reasons for his significant decline in production? His usage rate skyrocketed, and his efficiency plummeted accordingly. He went from an ORtg of 105 with a usage rate of about 18% in his second season, to an ORtg of 89 with a usage rate of about 24% this past season. Yuck! It goes without saying that his usage rate needs to decrease to the 18% or so that it was in his second season. Hopefully his offensive efficiency numbers will increase as a result.

The biggest reason for his decline other than the fact that he was taking way too many shots was that he started taking a lot more jumpers instead of looking for close, easy shots around the rim. In 2012, 13.4% of Seraphin's offense came on jump shots. He scored .86 PPP, which was at the 50th percentile. Then this season he irrationally decided to take about twice as many jumpers, with 27.3% of his offense coming on jump shots, and he scored only .84 PPP, which was at the 44th percentile. This is the biggest reason for his offensive decline. Now, we'd all like him to develop a respectable midrange jumper, but clearly we need to take baby steps. He can keep working on his jumper if he'd like, but he needs to understand it's not a strength yet, and he needs to stick to what's working. I'd like to imagine that part of the reason for his inflated usage rate and jumpers last season was because of injuries to Nene and Booker, as well as ones to Wall, Beal, and Ariza, that forced Seraphin to get more minutes and become a bigger role in the offense than he was ready for. Maybe he'll learn his lesson and come back next year humbled and ready to be a real role player, with a below average usage rate and a much better efficiency as a result.

The good news is that even in his terrible season this year, he was still an above average defender. That should only improve over time. If he can get back to his offensive efficiency he had in his second season, coupled with continued above average defense, then he's not so bad. For a backup center, that's respectable production, and the key is that he wouldn't be hurting us when he's on the floor anymore. This past season he absolutely killed us whenever he got in the game. Seriously, pretty much every lineup with Seraphin in it was awful.

But I'm fairly confident that he can once again be an above average or better defender, and I'm willing to give him another chance to take a backseat on offense and start making sure he's a lot more selective with his shots. I'm not sure he's going to develop into a starting caliber big man, but there's still the potential to do so, and I think he can definitely be a solid 4th big man this coming season. I'd still like to add another capable backup big to the mix of Nene, Okafor, Booker, and Seraphin, for some insurance and depth just to be safe.

[nate33]

I agree, rockymac. Seraphin definitely isn't in the same category as Vesely and Singleton.

Seraphin has most of the tools to be a solid NBA player. He's a good post defender and a pretty quick-footed pick-and-roll defender. He's a good post scorer. And he's actually a pretty good shooter from 16-23 feet. His problems are mostly mental. He makes bad decisions. He shoots too often and too high of a percentage of his shots are jumpers. It seems to me that those problems are relatively easy to correct.

There's no reason that he won't get better with time and experience unless he's a complete idiot or a selfish egomaniac. And everything I've seen and heard from him indicates that he's a pretty good guy.

Beyond making simple mental adjustments, I only see two long term issues that separate him from being an solid NBA player and a real good one: his rebounding and his ability to read double teams. Presumably he'll get a little better dealing with double teams over time, but he may never be really good at it. And rebounding rarely improves dramatically this late in a player's career. You either have the motor and situational awareness to rebound, or you don't.

[hands11]

I agree, rockymac. Seraphin definitely isn't in the same category as Vesely and Singleton.

Seraphin has most of the tools to be a solid NBA player. He's a good post defender and a pretty quick-footed pick-and-roll defender. He's a good post scorer. And he's actually a pretty good shooter from 16-23 feet. His problems are mostly mental. He makes bad decisions. He shoots too often and too high of a percentage of his shots are jumpers. It seems to me that those problems are relatively easy to correct.

There's no reason that he won't get better with time and experience unless he's a complete idiot or a selfish egomaniac. And everything I've seen and heard from him indicates that he's a pretty good guy.

Beyond making simple mental adjustments, I only see two long term issues that separate him from being an solid NBA player and a real good one: his rebounding and his ability to read double teams. Presumably he'll get a little better dealing with double teams over time, but he may never be really good at it. And rebounding rarely improves dramatically this late in a player's career. You either have the motor and situational awareness to rebound, or you don't.

This is in line with what I have been thinking. Kevin was my wild card for last year. If he could put it together, that would have had a big impact on the team. But it didn't happen. Last year was kind of a lateral movement for Kevin. He got more experience. He got to learn more about double teams. He shot more from mid range. But it didn't all come together.

With Kevins its mostly about his mind. He has the body. But mental covers a lot of facets.

I don't think motor is an issue with him. I think he has that. I think it mind set, experience and maturity.

Oddly, he seemed like more of a bull earlier in his career. He would set bone crushing picks. Aggressive rebounding wasn't far off. But he also picked up a ton of fouls. Some not his fault. They were fouls causes by Wall and other guards not letting him get set before they tried to use the pick he was setting.

Also seems he started his career with mostly hooks and then as they expanded his game to mid range, he fell in love with that part. And with him having both as options, he focused on just getting his shot off instead of also considering how he was doing it. Meaning, get the foul. Move toward the basket more. Play with more power.

I posted a link that he is not playing international ball this summer as expected but instead is hanging around to work with Randy. I see that as a very good sign. I think he needs that kind of work more then just playing games. And him doing this, I think that would also lend to the idea that they keep him another year.

So for me, Kevins problem is part skill, but a bigger part is experience, maturity, and focus. He need to understand there is a difference in how you score. Ideally you want to put up pts that pressure the defense to adjust or put them in foul trouble.

He would have to be deadly from 15 for the D to adjust but even if that happened, it not going to generate of lot of fouls. On the other hand, if he learned to mix in some fakes to go with his hook shot, he could draw fouls. Those fakes will lead to player being more flat footed and that will open things up even more. From there passing is easier and it opens up things like the up and under moves, or one dribble dunk moves. Simply put, he needs more Nene to his game. Thats how he would have a greater impact.

So I agree Kevin is in a different class. He has skills. And if he could put it together, he could be a complete handful. I mean he could literally dominate. But while I see hope he could be that, it would likely be several years off still. The game hasn't slowed down for him yet. He still comes across very much as a young puppy. Part of that is age, but that doesn't explain all of it. I know it might not be fair, but Beal at 19 has more maturity, BB IQ, leadership, etc then Kevin does at 23.

But this is why you bring in a Randy and add Nene, Okafor, Webster and Trevor A and you draft a Beal. Surrounded by these kind of people, young players like Kevin stand a better chance of getting to the promised land. But it does take some patience. That group was only put together last year.

Until I see a different maturity/personality from him, I don't think he will reach becoming that beast player. What Kevin needs as much as anything is work on his mental approach to the game. He needs to buy into "how" he can be a relevant impact player in a playoff game. Thats all that really matter. And that is mostly working on his mind/personality/focus/maturity.

Its a big year for him. You would really want to see progress in these important areas. My guess ? I think Randy is sharpening his sword. If he is getting a lot of one on one time with Randy, then I would expect Randy is really working his mind as much as anything. I would expect Kevin to come back with more of a power game and mental approach to the game.

[Ruzious]

Well, I'll say what I've said before - If Seraphin becomes a good player, that's a bonus, but to actually base any plans on that happening is foolish. Make any analysis you want on his skills and abilities - the fact is - he's a bad NBA player.

[nuposse04]

I think there is a clear distinction between a "bad player" and people like Vesely/Singleton...who are more or less the epitome of woe.

I wonder if Seraphin will really be a late bloomer seeing as he started basketball a little later then most pros...and if that is the case....would the Wiz not be fortunate to be the beneficiaries of better play...cause we can only be so patient with him.

[tontoz]

Seraphin is already a good defender, both in help and man D. Center is the most important spot to have a good defender.

But his woeful rebounding is a major concern, moreso than his offense.

[rockymac52]

Seraphin is not a bad NBA player. He was bad his rookie season. He was pretty solid his second season (PER of 15 aka league average is pretty solid proof of that, not to mention for a young and inexperienced player like him that year, a league average PER is downright phenomenal). He took a big step back this last season, where he hurt us time and time again, but while his overall production in his 3rd season might have been below average for an NBA player, there's still hope. No reason he can't return to what he did his 2nd season at the very least.

This seems to be a yearly occurrence for Seraphin, but once again, he got a lot better as the season progressed.

Pre All-Star: when Seraphin was on the court, the Wizards had an ORtg of 92.8 and a DRtg of 101.
Post All-Star: when Seraphin was on the court, the Wizards had an ORtg of 99.6 and a DRtg of 101.4.

I couldn't find his splits for his individual ORtg, only the team ORtg while he's on the floor, so those stats might not be proof of anything as a result, but still interesting that they improved offensively towards the latter half of the season. The defense was good all season long.

I mentioned in my last post my concerns about his increased usage rate this season. Well, looking at the splits, it paints an encouraging picture.

November: 27.7%
December: 24%
January: 24.6%
February: 20%
March: 21.6%
April: 20.5%

Again, the latter half of the season he stopped taking too many shots. I'd like to see his usage rate drop back down to the 18% that it was in his second season, but 20% is reasonable for now, certainly a big improvement from the first three months this season.

Again, because this next stat is team ORtg while Seraphin was on the court, and I'm not used to that, I'm not completely sure what to make of these numbers, but I'm cautiously optimistic and intrigued...

In games we won:
ORtg: 104.8
DRtg: 97.5

In games we lost:
ORtg: 90
DRtg: 103

Makes sense, and again, I'm not sure what to make of those numbers, but they're still interesting. It appears that when we manage to do well with Seraphin on the floor, we win (and by a good margin). On the flip side, when we struggle as a team with Seraphin on the floor, we lose (and by a considerable amount). This might be the case for every role player, I'll have to do more research there, but it still caught my eye and I wanted to point that out. This does go hand in hand with my prior observations that we have many very good and dominant lineup combinations, but our downfall was in large part the majority of our lineup combinations with Seraphin in the game.

Pre All-Star eFG%: 44.4
Post All-Star eFG%: 50.5

Lastly, I'm a little bit concerned with his rebounding numbers. We all know rebounding is a weakness of his. But what concerns me is that his rebounding has actually gotten worse every year since he entered the league, especially his offensive rebounding numbers.

2011 OREB%: 12.7
2012 OREB%: 10.2
2013 OREB%: 6.9

What's going on there???

Anyways, I know this is a very random collection of stats, but I figured I'd throw a few of them together for you guys. I thought they were pretty interesting. Reasons for optimism are always good in Wizardland!

[deneem4]

Kevin or vesely could easily be our gibson(with a jumper and post moves) and asik off the bench...they jus havent been developed...kevin has some post moves, and he's pretty solid oon d...he usually get doubled teamed becahse he plays with the bench which sucks at spacing the floor, and giv defenders the chance to leave their man and double him...he sucks at passing but I see seraphin as bein a carlos boozer potentially...

Let the lineup be

Wall
Beal
Webster(porter)
Seraphin
Okafor

I guarantee seraphin will give us 15/10 games

[rockymac52]

Kevin or vesely could easily be our gibson(with a jumper and post moves) and asik off the bench...they jus havent been developed...kevin has some post moves, and he's pretty solid oon d...he usually get doubled teamed becahse he plays with the bench which sucks at spacing the floor, and giv defenders the chance to leave their man and double him...he sucks at passing but I see seraphin as bein a carlos boozer potentially...

Let the lineup be

Wall
Beal
Webster(porter)
Seraphin
Okafor

I guarantee seraphin will give us 15/10 games

Yeahhh... no.

If Seraphin and Vesely turned into last year's Bulls front court minus Noah, we'd be winning 50+ games easily. I don't know which Seraphin and Vesely you're watching, or which Gibson, Boozer, and Asik you're watching, for that matter. Those three players are all much better than Seraphin and Vesely. Vesely will never be able to hold a candle to any of those three guys. Seraphin is everything goes right could develop into a quality big, but even then, the three guys you named are all pretty damn good, and it's hard to see Seraphin being on their level.

[deneem4]

Kevin or vesely could easily be our gibson(with a jumper and post moves) and asik off the bench...they jus havent been developed...kevin has some post moves, and he's pretty solid oon d...he usually get doubled teamed becahse he plays with the bench which sucks at spacing the floor, and giv defenders the chance to leave their man and double him...he sucks at passing but I see seraphin as bein a carlos boozer potentially...

Let the lineup be

Wall
Beal
Webster(porter)
Seraphin
Okafor

I guarantee seraphin will give us 15/10 games

Yeahhh... no.

If Seraphin and Vesely turned into last year's Bulls front court minus Noah, we'd be winning 50+ games easily. I don't know which Seraphin and Vesely you're watching, or which Gibson, Boozer, and Asik you're watching, for that matter. Those three players are all much better than Seraphin and Vesely. Vesely will never be able to hold a candle to any of those three guys. Seraphin is everything goes right could develop into a quality big, but even then, the three guys you named are all pretty damn good, and it's hard to see Seraphin being on their level.

Asik was jus a rebounder on the bulls bench mob, his offense consisted of tip ins and a dunk here or there, he was tall and tom excellent coaching taught him to jus out his hands up

Gibson was jus a good defensive player and a dunker, he really had no post moves and a very on/off jumper that was given to him on occasin

What made them become special? ??

Derrick rose
Kyle korver

Rose attacking drew all defense attenrion, open dunks for asik and gibson
Rose presence drew all attention period,l....

Kyle korver and that corner 3, drew whoever was in the post to run out...bulls always set excellent screens which gave korver that open space and always left tht paint defender thinking of runnimg out towards him forgetting asik or gibson once again. ..
Look at ronnie brewer a premier player off that bulls bench squad...dont even have a job now, asik a perfect fit with the rockets, they cam start len, harden, delfino, parsons....all good 3pt shooters, floor spacers, leave the 7ft lanky energy filled asik in the paint alone...

Watch basketball from a relative perspective if wall wouldnt hav came back beal would be labled as a bus

Look at dwight with the magic vs the lakers....all 3pt shooters on magic...dwight was 1on1 with most big men in the paint...

Watch basketball

[Nivek]

deneem: Seraphin is a poor rebounder. And a meh defender. Asik is a good rebounder and defender. Seraphin is ill-suited a role similar to Asik. Unless, of course, he suddenly becomes a player completely unlike...umm...himself.

[deneem4]

deneem: Seraphin is a poor rebounder. And a meh defender. Asik is a good rebounder and defender. Seraphin is ill-suited a role similar to Asik. Unless, of course, he suddenly becomes a player completely unlike...umm...himself.

Brook lopez

[Ruzious]

Guys, you can't sugar-coat a 10 PER combined with terrible offensive efficiency. Well, a bunch here have tried, but it doesn't work. He's a bad player and should not be counted on in any substantial way.