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Kevin Seraphin Thread - Part II

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Post#16 Re: Kevin Seraphin Thread - Part II
Mon Dec 10, 2012 3:08 pm by Chocolate City Jordanaire

hands11 wrote: [Kevin Seraphin] is young. He has made lots of progress. He even had 3x 10 rebounds games in a row. He should keep getting better. Kid could be truely dominate on day. I'm a fan. I'm only frustrated because I know this kid can do so much more.

He can play more of a power game. He can rebound even better and he can get to the line.


:nod:

EG is a good judge of talent. Seraphin can play. The question is will fans and front office be patient long enough to see him play his best?

Kevin can be a nightmare at PF IMO. His rebounding and shooting will make him an asset. PFs are much more likely to struggle to guard Seraphin. He is too big and strong for them. Note his stats as a PF vs C from last season.

http://www.82games.com/1112/11WAS15.HTM
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Post#17 Re: Kevin Seraphin Thread - Part II
Mon Dec 10, 2012 6:38 pm by hands11

le crapaud wrote:Look, what I'm saying is just that of course Kevin has to keep growing. I'm a big fan and I have high expectations for him too because...yeah it's pretty obvious he is a special kid and more importantly a special baller. I think it's just wrong to point his flaws by saying it's because he is soft. He really is not. And yeah that's moronic to say it's because he's french. And it's not that simple. It's a long process and that's all I wanted to point out. Kevin won't be or play like an all star if he man's up, grow a pair or something stupid like that. I mean yeah his numbers are not great, he can be a better rebounder but for the most part he makes sur he has a grip on his man and prefers to box out first than go get those rebounds. Maybe it's a mistake I don't know, I'm not stubborn about this but like I said it's a team effort. If he box out well (which it's the case for the most part) then 50% of the rebound job is done...teammates can go grab them.

@hands : Yeah I'm an idiot I get it...it's ok. Never said I wanted Nene at pg but suit yourself. I'm fine with Crawford at PG actually, but he has to set up his teammates a little better than he is doing right now. I mentionned that he can be a good passer, it's a process for him too but the fact is that Kevin efficiency isn't in great hands since Wall isn't playing and I think he is doing more than ok despise that fact.


Look. If there is one thing I have learned its that these back and forths don't usually go anywhere. If you have read my posts on Kevin you know I support the kids talent. I just want him to play like he is 6-9 275 and athletic more.

I never said it was because he was French. I said stop playing so French... lol

It was a rant. I wouldn't take it like I don't like Kevin. He needs to get to the line more. That mean doing something different then he is. Right now he has great moves to get his shot off clean and those moves are generally away from the basket. He needs to add moves toward the basket. He needs a pump fake. He needs to power dunk. When he adds that. Kid should be a beast.

Then you went on to bust on Crawford saying he wasn't a team player. Crawfords AST% is 30.8 up from 19.3 last season.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/pla ... fjo02.html

With Crawford and Kevin on the floor together you have two legit shooters. One inside to mid range and one ball in hand creator. They compliment each other well and with the two of them together, the other pieces would work better. This team as one first option guard and two first option post players.

Crawford, Kevin and Nene. As such, Crawford should be playing 40 minutes a game. And that has been true since the start of the season.
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Post#18 Re: Kevin Seraphin Thread - Part II
Mon Dec 10, 2012 6:55 pm by hands11

Limo wrote:So French and no balls... Wow.

Yes, there's something "French" in him. You won't turn him to an American aggressive nut. Play him with his own spirit or don't play him. Cause yes, the "soft French spirit" is to do things in the easy way. Why should he make it toughly? To go to the line? Hum, I thought the point was to win game. I love people who think there's rules for how to play and how to win. OK, so, you have to dunk and get to the line? Frankly... wow, you should have keep McGee. The man has terrific balls. For sure, he has zero French spirit. So though, so smart... huh no. Well you want a hopper then. Is it defending to have a lot of blocks, is it attacking to have a lot of dunks and FTs? Not sure. The good teams defend together. You block a shot, and then? you give the ball to the other team for a second chance. Is it that much a impressive mark and is this that much necessary?

Everything is a team work. You can differently and read the stats player by player and try to figure it out who's responsible for a bad defense and who don't rebound. So, when the other team misses a shot, it's the center to get the ball? it's not others problem? OK. And if the center boxes out, how could he takes the ball? Does he need to stop boxing out and think to his own stats? or this is to others to participate to the effort boxing out too and try to be concerned by the rebound? But OK, if the American spirit is to let one center do the job for the all the team, show his muscles, and get vain blocks, OK, that's your problem. You will have a lot of very individual and "effective" players, a lot of good stats and you will keep loosing.

You should try to watch the game with a new perspective and stop watch them behind the blinders of stats. Sure, it could help to understand your trouble to win games, but actually, there's only one stat which is important, it's the scoring numbers. Doesn't care how you do it, you have to be ahead. You can try to hunt for specific aims, you can think than some aspect are more important than others, but I'm really not sure that if you succeed in these specific eras that it wouldn't affect other aspect of your game and help you to win games. I think it's more simple than that. You want to defend? everybody should be concerned. You want to rebound? same. You want to make shots? found the easy way, share the ball. Crawford can have balls, well, there still has one ball on the game. You want to go to the line? fine; but others just play the game to win it in the easy way, no more. This "to go to the line more" is bs. Sure it could be an important aspect, but do you truly think to a player who plays with his best moves, the hook and the outside/quick shot, will go to the line? or should? Yes, come on Kevin, start to play with moves that you're not comfortable with but at least you will get to the line! Let him play his game, not other one game. And try to play as a team. In good teams, everyone knows what his role, but you won't play with someone else skills. If you're a PG but can't shoot 3s, do you HAVE to shoot 3s? Or do you play on your skills (like Tony Parker for instance).

If the Wiz want to start wining game (do they?) they have to start to think as a team, not individually. You can play with 5 players with enormous American patriot balls, the result would be the same: you share just one ball.

Good luck for your lottery pick.


I have no idea who you are responding to because it isn't too any posts I have seen here. Talk about taking things wildly out of context.

In review.

He has shown a ton of growth. He is a good kid. The baby hooks are awesome and the mid range looks very good. He is decisive with his moves which is good. He even has a pretty quick release. He is 23 and has come a long way.

He is also 275 6-9 and athletic. That is kind of unique on this team. He needs to rebound better. Boxing out is good. Grabbing the rebound is better. He needs to go strong to the basket. Not to look good. He needs to do it to get fouled and pressure the defense. That gets their bigs off the floor and it gives him easy shoots from the line which will increase his efficiency.

Right now all his moves are away from the basket. Now do that move and stop half way. Let the defender lean off balance then go straight up and get the foul. When he is close to the basket, he need to go up or fake and go up. Right now he is going for the opposite side of the rim away from players like Dray would do in the past. Scoring and getting fouled or getting fouled and going to the line is worth more then just 2pts and no foul. He isn't Stefan Curry. He is Kevin S 6-9 275. I want him to play like it.
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Post#19 Re: Kevin Seraphin Thread - Part II
Mon Dec 10, 2012 8:31 pm by payitforward

Chocolate City Jordanaire wrote:Kevin can be a nightmare at PF IMO. His rebounding and shooting will make him an asset.

??
His rebounding is in the bottom 20-25% of all power forwards who play 20+ minutes a game.
His eFG% is a bit below average among all power forwards who play 20+ minutes a game.

I guess that's a nightmare, but not the way you mean it.
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Post#20 Re: Kevin Seraphin Thread - Part II
Mon Dec 10, 2012 11:25 pm by hands11

payitforward wrote:
Chocolate City Jordanaire wrote:Kevin can be a nightmare at PF IMO. His rebounding and shooting will make him an asset.

??
His rebounding is in the bottom 20-25% of all power forwards who play 20+ minutes a game.
His eFG% is a bit below average among all power forwards who play 20+ minutes a game.



I think he is saying it will, post light bulb going on. He is a good shooter. If/when he learns to get to the line more, his eFG will go up. If/when he starts to rebound better.

Can be = project positive statement about his identifiable potential that poster thinks he can reach

Will = A statement about the future
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Post#21 Re: Kevin Seraphin Thread - Part II
Tue Dec 11, 2012 12:31 am by montestewart

To some degree of possible certitude, Seraphin may or may not be a nightmarish asset.
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Post#22 Re: Kevin Seraphin Thread - Part II
Tue Dec 11, 2012 6:51 am by Limo

hands11 wrote: He is Kevin S 6-9 275. I want him to play like it.

You want him to play like a player who doesn't exist. You don't win game by dreaming on what you could have. Sure it would be nice to see Kevin be able to go to line, go to the basket aggressively; but at the moment it's not the case. You point it out like he was responsible of those losses. Kevin has already made tremendous progress and you still want him to perfect his game? Why not, you always can make progress but ask more at this point it's unfair cause he's not the reason of the troubles of the team.

You want a stereotype player in your team. Will you ask to Dirk to block shots? Will you ask Howard to make his FTs?^ You have to do with what you have.

How do you want Kevin to go to the line more? The hook shot is done to avoid contact, you avoid contact to have uncontested shots. The quick outside shot is by definition an uncontested shot, you won't have foul on it. So what, because you have decide that to win games you should go to the line, Kevin has to create contact i.e take uncomfortable shots? Does he need to handle the ball more? It would mean more TOs. Does he need to hustle, going more on the offensive rebound? Yeah, this is what he tried to do, then it was more something like an offensive foul. Does he need to cut to the basket? well, you do it with a good playmaker and I'm not sure that Kevin is enough quick for that and even lucid to avoid himself offensive fouls. Yes, he's 6'9 and big but he's not that much quick to make it. Does he need to pump and pump? Why not, but it seems that he needs his rhythm to shot. For now, he needs the confidence, the clean shot and his rhythm. Sure he can work in all these aspects to get better, but he's already making a good job in his comfort zone and shots, why do you want to try to make him play like somebody else? It doesn't make any sense.

Yes Kevin is 6-9 275, but Kevin is Kevin. He doesn't play like Howard, he doesn't play like Macgee; he plays like Kevin. He has to work on what there's some potential improvements. If you work on something but in exchange you lose your own game,I don't see the progress, mostly if you just do it because you have decided as it was one of the ten commandments for a NBA player, that a big needed to go to the line. Ironically, another commandments would be at the other side to "send him to the FT line -- no easy basket". I, I have on principle: try to make the game easily, i.e play in your comfort zone, don't do when you don't know how to do. Religions quarrel: I won't go to your church.

Kevin can make a lot of progress, but he has already made a lot. He's one of two or three talented player in this team, start to moan about other players, Kevin is not the right target.
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Post#23 Re: Kevin Seraphin Thread - Part II
Tue Dec 11, 2012 8:44 am by payitforward

hands11 wrote:
payitforward wrote:
Chocolate City Jordanaire wrote:Kevin can be a nightmare at PF IMO. His rebounding and shooting will make him an asset.

??
His rebounding is in the bottom 20-25% of all power forwards who play 20+ minutes a game.
His eFG% is a bit below average among all power forwards who play 20+ minutes a game.



I think he is saying it will, post light bulb going on. ... Can be = project positive statement about ...potential ...A statement about the future

Good point. Fair enough....
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Post#24 Re: Kevin Seraphin Thread - Part II
Tue Dec 11, 2012 8:52 am by payitforward

Limo wrote:
hands11 wrote: He is Kevin S 6-9 275. I want him to play like it.

You want him to play like a player who doesn't exist.

You want a stereotype player in your team. Will you ask to Dirk to block shots? Will you ask Howard to make his FTs?^ You have to do with what you have.

How do you want Kevin to go to the line more? ... Does he need to cut to the basket? ... not sure that Kevin is enough quick for that and even lucid to avoid himself offensive fouls. Yes, he's 6'9 and big but he's not that much quick to make it.

..Kevin is Kevin. He doesn't play like Howard, he doesn't play like Macgee; he plays like Kevin. He has to work on what there's some potential improvements. If you work on something but in exchange you lose your own game,I don't see the progress, mostly if you just do it because you have decided as it was one of the ten commandments for a NBA player, that a big needed to go to the line. Ironically, another commandments would be at the other side to "send him to the FT line -- no easy basket". I, I have on principle: try to make the game easily, i.e play in your comfort zone, don't do when you don't know how to do. Religions quarrel: I won't go to your church.

Kevin can make a lot of progress, but he has already made a lot. He's one of two or three talented player in this team, start to moan about other players, Kevin is not the right target.

These are all extremely good points. In particular, they are *real* as opposed to idealized, if-only-style hopes. At the same time, we really need to see a bit more rapid progress in the areas where he *does* have potential.

Kevin's in his third year. As I've said before, the older a player gets the closer he gets to his ceiling; therefore the higher he is now the higher his ceiling is. Most players in the league peak at about 25, then play on a plateau for a few years, then begin to decline. There are exceptions, of course, guys who peak later, guys who play longer at their peak. But the overall rule still holds.
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Post#25 Re: Kevin Seraphin Thread - Part II
Tue Dec 11, 2012 9:20 am by willbcocks

Has there been any analysis on the development of big men vs guards? There's a common saying that big men develop more slowly, and young bigs should be given more time, but is this actually the case?

I was ready to give up on KSera last year at this time. He looked terrible. Since then his defense has improved dramatically and he has developed two good offensive tools: a 15-18 foot jump shot and a short jump hook.

He seems to work hard and wants to improve. He will have time for extra practice/minutes with the French team over the summer. I think we're likely to see incremental improvement in his game for a couple years, especially in the area of passing/turnovers. You can tell he's trying new ways to protect the ball and recognize double teams, but that feel for the game takes a while and he hasn't been playing top-level basketball long enough.

Rebounding and aggressive moves at the basket--I hope those will improve but I'm less confident.
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Post#26 Re: Kevin Seraphin Thread - Part II
Tue Dec 11, 2012 9:28 am by Nivek

will: That's a great question. I sorta remember someone over at APBRmetrics doing some research along these lines. My guess is either MikeG or Kevin Pelton. I've pinged the group to see if there's anything on this.
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Post#27 Re: Kevin Seraphin Thread - Part II
Tue Dec 11, 2012 9:35 am by tontoz

I don't think Seraphin was as bad early last year as some thought. I just think he wasn't getting enough minutes, touches to be comfortable out there. I think he already had a hook/jumper but didn't have the opportunity to show it.

Now that he is getting plenty of time/touches it is more a matter of developing his game. He is saying the right things but the proof is what happens on the floor. I have yet to see him get the ball in post, face up and make a strong drive to the basket. Even when he gets an offensive rebound close to the basket he is more inclined to fade away instead of moving towards the rim and trying to dunk.
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Post#28 Re: Kevin Seraphin Thread - Part II
Tue Dec 11, 2012 10:52 am by Chocolate City Jordanaire

payitforward wrote:
Chocolate City Jordanaire wrote:Kevin can be a nightmare at PF IMO. His rebounding and shooting will make him an asset.

??
His rebounding is in the bottom 20-25% of all power forwards who play 20+ minutes a game.
His eFG% is a bit below average among all power forwards who play 20+ minutes a game.

I guess that's a nightmare, but not the way you mean it.


pif, see Seraphin's 2011-2012 48-Minute Player Production By Position, PF and C stats.

http://www.82games.com/1112/11WAS15.HTM

When he played with Nene, Kevin Seraphin was listed as the PF.

Last season, he out-rebounded, out-scored, and converted a significantly higher FG percentage than his counterpart PF.

Seraphin's net rebounds per-48 were 12.2 vs 10.5, or +1.7. His net points per-48 were 22.7 vs 17.6, or +5.1. His net eFG at PF was .654 vs .457, or +.194.

Based on the above I think Kevin at PF can be a very effective player. Did I misinterpret something?
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Post#29 Re: Kevin Seraphin Thread - Part II
Tue Dec 11, 2012 11:00 am by nate33

Chocolate City Jordanaire wrote:
payitforward wrote:
Chocolate City Jordanaire wrote:Kevin can be a nightmare at PF IMO. His rebounding and shooting will make him an asset.

??
His rebounding is in the bottom 20-25% of all power forwards who play 20+ minutes a game.
His eFG% is a bit below average among all power forwards who play 20+ minutes a game.

I guess that's a nightmare, but not the way you mean it.


pif, look at Seraphin's 2011-2012 48-Minute Player Production By Position, PF and C stats.

http://www.82games.com/1112/11WAS15.HTM

When he played with Nene, Kevin Seraphin was listed as the PF.

He out-rebounded, out-scored, and converted a significantly higher FG percentage than his counterpart PF.

While I don't disagree that he might be better off alongside Nene, it's worth noting that the data you cite has a paltry sample size of roughly 150 minutes. Also, he is not producing at PF like that this year (though he has hardly played alongside Nene at all).
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Post#30 Re: Kevin Seraphin Thread - Part II
Tue Dec 11, 2012 11:03 am by Nivek

1) Position designations at 82games aren't good. They're not based on actual intel on the team's rotation, but rather on height.

2) Even if the position designation is correct, the sample size is small -- about 190 minutes.

3) Even if the position designation is correct and we ignore the small sample size, the difference is almost exclusively in FG%. (He also got an additional rebound per 48 minutes.)

I'm not poo-pooing the idea of Seraphin playing some at PF. But those numbers don't really offer much support for the idea.
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Post#31 Re: Kevin Seraphin Thread - Part II
Tue Dec 11, 2012 11:07 am by Chocolate City Jordanaire

Nivek wrote:1) Position designations at 82games aren't good. They're not based on actual intel on the team's rotation, but rather on height.

2) Even if the position designation is correct, the sample size is small -- about 190 minutes.

3) Even if the position designation is correct and we ignore the small sample size, the difference is almost exclusively in FG%. (He also got an additional rebound per 48 minutes.)

I'm not poo-pooing the idea of Seraphin playing some at PF. But those numbers don't really offer much support for the idea.


Thanks. I have my mind made up but it's nice to be informed. So those stats mean diddly poo! Thank goodness for intelligent, rational, fact-based folks like Nivek to balance us intuitive folk. :)

To me, the Wizards were dumb not to try McGee with Seraphin and they should be looking at Alex Len or even Jeff Withey at C to play next to Seraphin. Kevin is best at PF. He's Antoine Carr/Ben Coleman but bigger and more agile than either player.

I don't know why but to me it should be intuitively obvious to others that Kevin Seraphin would be a beast at PF.
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Post#32 Re: Kevin Seraphin Thread - Part II
Tue Dec 11, 2012 11:30 am by Chocolate City Jordanaire

Since 82 games is based on height, per Nivek, then Kevin with Vesely always makes Kevin the PF in 82 games statistical breakdowns.

Last season, the two players taller that Kevin played with were Nene and Vesely. Seraphin's PF stats were really good last season. Unfortunately, the dumb Okafor trade has prevented much time for Vesely with Seraphin this season. See lineups 10 and 16 this season of Vesely with Seraphin, and lineup 17 for Nene with Seraphin:

http://www.82games.com/1213/12WAS13.HTM

Very small sample size, but last season showed many instances where Vesely with Seraphin was a good combination for the Wizards. Virtually every Vesely/Seraphin lineup did well last season:

http://www.82games.com/1112/11WAS15.HTM

The Wizards could effectively start Crawford, Beal, Singleton, Vesely, and Seraphin to get all their young players the most game experience. They can come in with their veterans as needed off the bench. I think this would get Vesely out of his funk real fast.
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Post#33 Re: Kevin Seraphin Thread - Part II
Tue Dec 11, 2012 11:47 am by Nivek

Looking at this year's data, they might have changed the approach to position designation. They always list the center last and in those Vesely-Seraphin pairings, Seraphin is last. So, they have him at center there. But, then they have Nene listed at center when paired with Seraphin, and that doesn't seem right. The only time they don't list Nene at center is when he's playing with Okafor.

Just guessing here, but Roland probably got tired of people (like me) complaining about the position designations and went with a "most center" system. So, the guy who's "most center" is listed at center, the next guy at PF, the next at SF and so on. That would be an improvement on the old height-based system, but still not all that good.

I'm trying to think about who defends whom when Nene and Seraphin are on the floor together. It could be that Seraphin is at PF and Nene at C. Might be the other way around. In all honesty, the position designations don't matter all that much. Matchups matter a lot less than the standard analysis would have us believe. The game isn't 5 1-on-1 contests, it's a single game of 5-on-5.

I'll pay more attention next time I see Nene and Seraphin on the floor together. Ultimately, I don't think there's that much distinction between PF and C, at least in terms of the way these guys play the positions. Neither is a stretch 4. They're both inside players regardless of whether they're called PF or C.
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Post#34 Re: Kevin Seraphin Thread - Part II
Tue Dec 11, 2012 1:59 pm by hands11

tontoz wrote:I don't think Seraphin was as bad early last year as some thought. I just think he wasn't getting enough minutes, touches to be comfortable out there. I think he already had a hook/jumper but didn't have the opportunity to show it.

Now that he is getting plenty of time/touches it is more a matter of developing his game. He is saying the right things but the proof is what happens on the floor. I have yet to see him get the ball in post, face up and make a strong drive to the basket. Even when he gets an offensive rebound close to the basket he is more inclined to fade away instead of moving towards the rim and trying to dunk.


Exactly. The progress will come in stages. I actually did see him make a move toward the hoop last games, but he went to the backside of the rim. Again, avoiding the contact but he did make the shot.

Point is, he has proven he can score. The next stage is scoring pts while causing the other team to foul him.
Free shots at the line plus a foul is worth more then just 2pts.

Hell, I would even tell him, we realize you might get called for a charge now an again. But if someone wants to set up in front of your 275 lbs going to the hoop, take it strong and make them think twice before wanting to do that again. I would gladly give up 1 foul a game to see him make that move.

Anyone of you remember the first KS interview where he pounded his hand into his fist and said he like to play aggressive ? We need to see more of that Kevin.

But at a min, he needs to rebound better and more consistent.
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Post#35 Re: Kevin Seraphin Thread - Part II
Fri Dec 14, 2012 12:32 am by hands11

http://espn.go.com/nba/player/_/id/4289/kevin-seraphin

In his third year, this kid simply has to step it up and become more consistent.

http://espn.go.com/nba/player/stats/_/i ... n-seraphin

Year 3 is a good time to show some major improvement if you plan on being an impact player.
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