Official Trade Thread XXI (12/13/12 - 02/06/13)

[DCZards]

I haven't looked but isn't Bosh their best rebounder? That is their big weakness and Nene won't help.

Miami would probably prefer Okafor. They could use his rebounding and defensive toughness in the paint. In fact, I've been thinking that Miami might be already eyeballing Okafor.

[nate33]

I haven't looked but isn't Bosh their best rebounder? That is their big weakness and Nene won't help.

Miami would probably prefer Okafor. They could use his rebounding and defensive toughness in the paint. In fact, I've been thinking that Miami might be already eyeballing Okafor.

They don't have anything to trade for him... except Bosh.

[tontoz]

I haven't looked but isn't Bosh their best rebounder? That is their big weakness and Nene won't help.

Miami would probably prefer Okafor. They could use his rebounding and defensive toughness in the paint. In fact, I've been thinking that Miami might be already eyeballing Okafor.

He would be a perfect fit there.

He has been playing well but his efficiency on offense is still pretty bad. Teams give him the midrange j and he obliges. He just can't make those with any consistency. That wouldn't be a problem with the Heat.

[fishercob]

A poster on the General Board posted some interesting screen caps of a frustrated Chris Bosh looking like he is sick of being the 3rd fiddle behind Lebron and Wade. Just for kicks, this trade might actually make some sense for all parties:

Miami trades: Bosh
Washington trades: Nene + Ariza + 1st round pick (top 10 prot. in 2013, top 3 prot. thereafter)

Miami gets a true center and a player who fits in better as a 3rd option and doesn't need so many touches. They also save about $15M in luxtax payments in 2015. They could save another $15M or so if they manage to flip Ariza for an expiring contract with a 3rd party involved.

Washington gets probably the best possible fit at PF among any player in the league. Bosh is a first option scorer who has the perimeter game to spread the floor for Wall or to run the pick and roll. Our lineup next year would be:

PG Wall
SG Beal/Crawford
SF Webster
PF Bosh/Booker
C Okafor/Seraphin

Add in a 2013 top 5 pick, an MLE-caliber free agent, and a few vet minimum guys and that's a real good team for a while.

Interesting!

My question is why Miami even wants Ariza in the deal? He's not getting any minutes in that wing rotation. WOuldn't they just prefer Nene or Nene + Seraphin? I'd consider adding any of our marginal young guys.

We'd be well over the cap next year but safely under the tax, yes?

[popper]

Posted on Minny forum -response below


popper wrote:
Wiz Fan Here - I'd like Williams for some combination of Seraphin, Ariza, Vesely, Singleton, Webster, Crawford (not all of course but some combination of two for instance). Unless you guys are over-valuing Williams by a lot then I see no reason a trade couldn't be worked out. I hope our GM is talking to your GM.

Reddick is going to be a pure rental for whoever gets him which should drive down his value significantly.

From Minny Fan
Yep, Seraphin and Webster package looks great to me. Seraphin give us a big that can play both positions and will be able to find minutes even when Love is back. Webster is a perfect short term patch on the wings since he plays both 2 & 3, plus he's familiar with the team.

[nate33]

I was giving up Ariza mainly to offset that massive salary of Bosh and his 15% Trade Kicker. With Ariza included, it's salary neutral for the Wizards (the Heat take on about $3M).

Ariza doesn't have to be included, though we would need to add at least $2.1M to Nene's outgoing salary to make it work. That means either Vesely or two of our other young players. I figured Ariza is most suited to help in a win now environment. I'd really be resistant to sending Seraphin, as I believe he could excel here as a cheap reserve big playing mostly C and just a smidge of PF. That's a good role for him.

The best move would probably be to launder Ariza through a 3rd team, hopefully to reduce salary going to Miami.

[nuposse04]

I never thought we'd be in a position to say this, but I'd rather hold onto webster. He's a pleasent surprise in a rather bleh year. I'd see if they'd go for JC+Seraphin+Singleton, 2nd round pick for Williams.

[fishercob]

Hm. The ESPN trade checker allows Nene for Bosh straight up. But hey, I'm all for trading Ariza for expirings either way.

[nate33]

Hm. The ESPN trade checker allows Nene for Bosh straight up. But hey, I'm all for trading Ariza for expirings either way.

The Trade Checker must not be accounting for Bosh's 15% kicker. Add another 15% to the incoming salary for Washington and it doesn't work.

[fishercob]

Gotcha.

Well, George Karl probably thinks Miami should make the deal, nate. From Mike Lee's story on Nene's return to Denver:

Nuggets Coach George Karl said he would always feel a special connection with Nene since he relied on the 6-foot-11 forward during his own bout with throat cancer three years ago. But he was frank while explaining why the trade “had to made.” After the Nuggets traded Carmelo Anthony and started to rebuild the team, they wanted more from Nene. The expectations rose when Nene signed a five-year, $65 million contract in December 2011 and when they went unfilled, the team sought a younger alternative in JaVale McGee.

“I think Nene is a team player to a fault. I guess that’s the best way to phrase that,” Karl said. “When we kind of made all of the changes, we kind of wanted Nene to be more assertive and more demanding of his skills and the responsibility of the team. And I’m not saying he didn’t do that. He likes being a team guy.
“The situation came down to, when you’re reshaping a team, it’s better to go younger and that’s the choice management made and I was supportive of that,” Karl said. “I mean, I could’ve very easily kept Nene. I think Nene is easily a 14 [points] and 8 [rebounds], 14 and 9 guy. He’ll probably be that for the next three or four years. But sometimes, I think we wanted him to try to be an 18 and 12 guy. Sometimes, I think Nene enjoys being a major part of a good team and playing as a team. Sometimes, your best player has to say, ‘Give me the ball. Give me the responsibility.’ ”

That said, Bosh is both better and younger. Miami won a title last year with him and I think they think they can do it again (they may not have won last year were it not for Harden's dismantling of the Spurs -- SA owned Miami during the season last year and I thought they'd take them apart in the FInals). CHemistry would have to deteriorate further and the Heat would have to lose a bunch of games before they'd really consider this IMO.

[gambitx777]

I don't want bosh he is showing signs of slowing down and he should not be playing the center position . PASS!
as for the redick deal he would probably be asked to agree to an extension first.

[shrink]

Hm. The ESPN trade checker allows Nene for Bosh straight up. But hey, I'm all for trading Ariza for expirings either way.

The Trade Checker must not be accounting for Bosh's 15% kicker. Add another 15% to the incoming salary for Washington and it doesn't work.

1. Yes, the ESPN Trade Checker does not calculate trade kickers.

2. Bosh's trade kicker can't take him higher than the average of the max (for his 9 years of servive) and the new number with the full 15% raise. The average of $16,402,500 and $20,072,100 ($17,545,000 x 1.15) is $18,237,300.

3. Nene's deal is $13,000,000 .. to match it has to be within $5,000,000, so it just misses.

4. Bosh could agree to take less than his full kicker. If he has to take less, that gives him a de facto "no trade clause." Pay him the full amount, and he can't say "no."

5. It other players are added from MIA's side, it's likely that you will need to configure it as two consecutive trades to make the numbers work. Bosh part matches witrhin $5 mil if you don't go over $19.8 mil, and then a second trade for the second part. Try to avoid a Bosh package that goes over $20 mil in one deal, because then matching has to be within 25% .. not the $5 mil grace period.

[jivelikenice]

I also think we're valuing D Williams based on his draft position versus actual production...He wasn't inexperienced coming out and for Minnesota to shop him so heavily just 1 1/2 yrs after drafting him #2 is a big red flag.

Im not valuing D Will on his draft position but rather his potential. His per 36 minute stats this year are all up and he's improved his shooting drastically (last year his eFG% on jumpers was .353 this year it's .486).

While I agree with some of things you wrote, I just don't see that level of potential in Seraphin, whether he's hit his ceiling or not.

Tonight's game is why Seraphin is such a tough case to examine. I just think if you trade a young big man with scoring ability, you just have to get a proven commodity, which Derrick Williams is not.

[nate33]

I also think we're valuing D Williams based on his draft position versus actual production...He wasn't inexperienced coming out and for Minnesota to shop him so heavily just 1 1/2 yrs after drafting him #2 is a big red flag.

Im not valuing D Will on his draft position but rather his potential. His per 36 minute stats this year are all up and he's improved his shooting drastically (last year his eFG% on jumpers was .353 this year it's .486).

While I agree with some of things you wrote, I just don't see that level of potential in Seraphin, whether he's hit his ceiling or not.

Tonight's game is why Seraphin is such a tough case to examine. I just think if you trade a young big man with scoring ability, you just have to get a proven commodity, which Derrick Williams is not.

Agreed. Seraphin was fantastic in the 2nd half last night. He actually took it to the basket strong instead of always looking to fadeaway or shoot the hook. Yes, he is still a black hole, but the man has real good skills and can also play defense. If he can just figure out the mental side of the game, he can be a excellent player. He has all the tools.

[miller31time]

I wouldn't have any problem at all including an unprotected 1st rounder along with Nene for Bosh.

If the opportunity ever presented itself to acquire not only a top-notch player but a top-notch player who would fit in seamlessly, you have to present a serious offer.

Nene (who, while a good player, is injury prone with a crappy contract) and a protected pick wouldn't get the deal done.