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Official Trade Thread XXI (12/13/12 - 02/06/13)

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Re: Official Trade Thread XXI (12/13/12 - present) 

Post#921 » by AWIZZINGBULLET » Mon Jan 21, 2013 4:25 pm

fishercob wrote:Like everyone else, I'm beginning to wonder about Cousins. With the move to Seattle in the offing, I wonder if the new organization decides that he's just not who they want as the face of their franchise as they make a fresh start, and trade him for a tanktastic package that will help their full rebuild.

Do you think they'd remotely consider:

Seraphin, Crawford, Booker, Vesely, Singleton, Wiz firsts in '13 and '15
for
Cousins, Salmons, Honeycut

Our rotation would be Wall, Beal, Webster, Nene, Cousins, Okafor, Ariza, Salmons and Price.
Okafor, Ariza and Salmons all come off the books after next year (only $1M of Salmons deal is guaranteed in the final year).

Going into next offseason, Nene and Beal would be our only 2 players under contract with Wall and Cousins up for extensions.


How would that be in the best interest of the Wizards? All that for one man who hasn't proven himself to be more positive than negative? I'd hope the Wizards would never consider anything like that.
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Re: Official Trade Thread XXI (12/13/12 - present) 

Post#922 » by fishercob » Mon Jan 21, 2013 4:52 pm

sfam wrote:
fishercob wrote:Like everyone else, I'm beginning to wonder about Cousins. With the move to Seattle in the offing, I wonder if the new organization decides that he's just not who they want as the face of their franchise as they make a fresh start, and trade him for a tanktastic package that will help their full rebuild.

Do you think they'd remotely consider:

Seraphin, Crawford, Booker, Vesely, Singleton, Wiz firsts in '13 and '15
for
Cousins, Salmons, Honeycut

Our rotation would be Wall, Beal, Webster, Nene, Cousins, Okafor, Ariza, Salmons and Price.
Okafor, Ariza and Salmons all come off the books after next year (only $1M of Salmons deal is guaranteed in the final year).

Going into next offseason, Nene and Beal would be our only 2 players under contract with Wall and Cousins up for extensions.


That deal seems insanely high to me. two firsts for Cousins? I really hope you're making both protected, like top 10 or something. If not, this deal wouldn't be about Sacremento dumping Cousins - they'd be selling high, very high in fact.


Well, the assumption is that one of the firsts would be a mid-late lotto pick in this year's craptastic draft, and that the '15 pick would be a mid-first rounder at best. Probably a little too much caffeine and optimism there. But I think we'd need at least one of the picks included for our offer to be competitive with what else Seattle is likely to see.

While I recognize that Cousins hasn't accomplished much, there's the reality that this package isn't really all that expensive. What impact player or difficult to replace player are we including? I love our guys and all, but I think much of the league would see this package as a bunch of flotsam.
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Re: Official Trade Thread XXI (12/13/12 - present) 

Post#923 » by nate33 » Mon Jan 21, 2013 4:57 pm

Seraphin + Crawford + 2013 top 3 protected first is probably the most I would offer. They can certainly have Vesely or Singleton in place of Crawford if they so desired.
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Re: Official Trade Thread XXI (12/13/12 - present) 

Post#924 » by Chocolate City Jordanaire » Mon Jan 21, 2013 5:01 pm

nate33 wrote:Seraphin + Crawford + 2013 top 3 protected first is probably the most I would offer. They can certainly have Vesely or Singleton in place of Crawford if they so desired.


Seraphin, Vesely, and a first is too much for Cousins because of their rookie deals and his approaching contract. Demarcus is not a stabilizing presence. As good as he is I would not do a deal like this.

The Wizards need to trade Okafor or Nene in any Cousins deal. Nene is damaged goods, or else he would be a keeper.
Bye bye Beal.
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Re: Official Trade Thread XXI (12/13/12 - present) 

Post#925 » by fishercob » Mon Jan 21, 2013 5:03 pm

nate33 wrote:Seraphin + Crawford + 2013 top 3 protected first is probably the most I would offer. They can certainly have Vesely or Singleton in place of Crawford if they so desired.


So if you're GM, you're going to nix a deal for Cousins because Seattle wants Trevor Booker too?
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Re: Official Trade Thread XXI (12/13/12 - present) 

Post#926 » by Chocolate City Jordanaire » Mon Jan 21, 2013 5:16 pm

How about Okafor, Booker, Crawford, 2014 1st (unprotected) for Cousins, Thornton, Hayes?

http://espn.go.com/nba/tradeMachine?tradeId=bdwmmql

Crawford is arguably better than Thornton and makes 6M less. Booker has upside. Hayes does not. Okafor and a 1st (unprotected) included. Thoughts?
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Re: Official Trade Thread XXI (12/13/12 - present) 

Post#927 » by gambitx777 » Mon Jan 21, 2013 5:17 pm

I do not think that we should give up a first at all for a head case, that should just be a rule.
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Re: Official Trade Thread XXI (12/13/12 - present) 

Post#928 » by verbal8 » Mon Jan 21, 2013 6:29 pm

I don't mind trading spare pieces to get Cousins. However if a 1st is needed it should have significant protection.

I wonder if they would want the opposite direction and would have interest in Nene. I don't know they would want Cousins as the "face of the franchise" when they move to a new city.

The only guys I would remotely consider giving up the proposed package for would be Love, Bosh or Howard if he would resign.

fishercob wrote:Like everyone else, I'm beginning to wonder about Cousins. With the move to Seattle in the offing, I wonder if the new organization decides that he's just not who they want as the face of their franchise as they make a fresh start, and trade him for a tanktastic package that will help their full rebuild.

Do you think they'd remotely consider:

Seraphin, Crawford, Booker, Vesely, Singleton, Wiz firsts in '13 and '15
for
Cousins, Salmons, Honeycut

Our rotation would be Wall, Beal, Webster, Nene, Cousins, Okafor, Ariza, Salmons and Price.
Okafor, Ariza and Salmons all come off the books after next year (only $1M of Salmons deal is guaranteed in the final year).

Going into next offseason, Nene and Beal would be our only 2 players under contract with Wall and Cousins up for extensions.
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Re: Official Trade Thread XXI (12/13/12 - present) 

Post#929 » by fishercob » Mon Jan 21, 2013 6:55 pm

verbal8 wrote:I don't mind trading spare pieces to get Cousins. However if a 1st is needed it should have significant protection.

I wonder if they would want the opposite direction and would have interest in Nene. I don't know they would want Cousins as the "face of the franchise" when they move to a new city.

The only guys I would remotely consider giving up the proposed package for would be Love, Bosh or Howard if he would resign.

fishercob wrote:Like everyone else, I'm beginning to wonder about Cousins. With the move to Seattle in the offing, I wonder if the new organization decides that he's just not who they want as the face of their franchise as they make a fresh start, and trade him for a tanktastic package that will help their full rebuild.

Do you think they'd remotely consider:

Seraphin, Crawford, Booker, Vesely, Singleton, Wiz firsts in '13 and '15
for
Cousins, Salmons, Honeycut

Our rotation would be Wall, Beal, Webster, Nene, Cousins, Okafor, Ariza, Salmons and Price.
Okafor, Ariza and Salmons all come off the books after next year (only $1M of Salmons deal is guaranteed in the final year).

Going into next offseason, Nene and Beal would be our only 2 players under contract with Wall and Cousins up for extensions.


Holy overvaluing our own players, Batman! Let's say the Wiz buck that odds and get the #1 pick in this draft. There would be pretty hot debate over who the pick should be, essentially because there's no clear cut superstar or even star in this draft. Just for hypotheticals, let's assume it's McLemore. What do people think a sextet of McLemore, Seraphin, Booker, Crawford, Vesely and Singleton could actually win in the NBA? 10 games? 15 maybe? Our '15 first will quite likely (the good lord willing) be out of the lottery.

It's just not that valuable a package. The notion that Love, Howard, or Bosh would be anywhere near attainable for that collection of guys is simply ridiculous.
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Re: Official Trade Thread XXI (12/13/12 - present) 

Post#930 » by Nivek » Mon Jan 21, 2013 7:22 pm

I think that sextet could win 20-25 games. So long as all six were permitted to play at the same time.
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Re: Official Trade Thread XXI (12/13/12 - present) 

Post#931 » by fishercob » Mon Jan 21, 2013 7:37 pm

Nivek wrote:I think that sextet could win 20-25 games. So long as all six were permitted to play at the same time.


I dunno. Spacing issues.
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Re: Official Trade Thread XXI (12/13/12 - present) 

Post#932 » by jivelikenice » Mon Jan 21, 2013 7:42 pm

Seraphin and a first is enough for Cousins. And I'm not overvaluing our players, I'm just not overvaluing a player on another team who's an obvious head case, abad teammate by most accounts, and hasn't had any success in the win column.
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Re: Official Trade Thread XXI (12/13/12 - present) 

Post#933 » by fishercob » Mon Jan 21, 2013 7:58 pm

jivelikenice wrote:Seraphin and a first is enough for Cousins. And I'm not overvaluing our players, I'm just not overvaluing a player on another team who's an obvious head case, abad teammate by most accounts, and hasn't had any success in the win column.


Two separate points.

1) If Cousins is good enough for Seraphin and first, why would you let giving up marginal players -- Crawford, Vesely, Booker, Singleton -- get in the way of getting him. It would be one thing if you said "Cousins sucks and is a head case, I wouldn't even give up Seraphin for him." But the marginal cost is just so.....margina.

2) Head case, bad teammate, hasn't won: No disputing that he hasn't won. Neither has Kevin Love or Aldridge or John Wall or Kyrie Irving. I'd take all those guys. Team success isn't a fair barometer of an individual player's complete worth.

Head case: sure. But so was Rasheed Wallace and he turned the Pistons from contenders to champions. The Bulls never would have three-peated the second time without Rodman. JR Smith is getting All-Star consideration. There was a time when Magic was called "Tragic Johnson" for being such a choker in big moments. Not too long ago Lebron couldn't get it done when it counted because of his problems between the ears.

Bad teammate: Haven't heard this -- not from Kings players, nor from Wall or other UK guys that year. Not saying it's not true, just saying it's news to me.

I cannot help but wonder if Cousins, playing with a dynamic young backcourt and a steady veteran front line might not play better. His usage would invariably go down, and his efficiency may well go up with less of an offensive burden. The Kings have been a horrible defensive team his entire career, yet he has posted individual DRtg's well better than the team's measure. Again, I wonder if he'd be a defensive stud alongside our currently 10th ranked D, and perhaps push us into the elite.
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Re: Official Trade Thread XXI (12/13/12 - present) 

Post#934 » by nate33 » Mon Jan 21, 2013 8:56 pm

fishercob wrote:
nate33 wrote:Seraphin + Crawford + 2013 top 3 protected first is probably the most I would offer. They can certainly have Vesely or Singleton in place of Crawford if they so desired.


So if you're GM, you're going to nix a deal for Cousins because Seattle wants Trevor Booker too?

Is Sacramento's GM really going to nix a deal for Seraphin and a top 3 first just because they insist on acquiring the last season of Booker's rookie deal?

There's not really much a point in arguing this. The crux of the deal is Seraphin and a 1st for Cousins. I honestly don't think the filler swap is a significant motive for either side. The notion of us trading essentially every rookie contract on the roster (save Beal) for Cousins and Salmons is a little far fetched. Quantity doesn't equal quality and both sides know this.
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Re: Official Trade Thread XXI (12/13/12 - present) 

Post#935 » by nate33 » Mon Jan 21, 2013 9:11 pm

fishercob wrote:Head case: sure. But so was Rasheed Wallace and he turned the Pistons from contenders to champions. The Bulls never would have three-peated the second time without Rodman. JR Smith is getting All-Star consideration. There was a time when Magic was called "Tragic Johnson" for being such a choker in big moments. Not too long ago Lebron couldn't get it done when it counted because of his problems between the ears.

Bad teammate: Haven't heard this -- not from Kings players, nor from Wall or other UK guys that year. Not saying it's not true, just saying it's news to me.

C'mon fish, you are reaching.

In what universe is J.R. Smith getting All-Star consideration? The guy is posting a TS% of .496. Jordan freaking Crawford is beating him in per-minute points, rebounds and assists, while posting a higher TS%. And I don't even what to get into the Magic and Lebron comparisons. And I can prove Cousins is a bad teammate simply by posting his Usg% in conjunction with his shooting percentage on jumpers.

fishercob wrote:I cannot help but wonder if Cousins, playing with a dynamic young backcourt and a steady veteran front line might not play better. His usage would invariably go down, and his efficiency may well go up with less of an offensive burden. The Kings have been a horrible defensive team his entire career, yet he has posted individual DRtg's well better than the team's measure. Again, I wonder if he'd be a defensive stud alongside our currently 10th ranked D, and perhaps push us into the elite.

His DRtg is good because DRtg is an extremely imprecise stat which basically amounts to a comparison of DRB%. Cousins gets a ton of defensive boards, so his DRtg is going to look good. That's not to say that I think Cousins is a really bad defender. I'm just saying that I don't particularly trust the DRtg stat. Overall, Cousins is intriguing for the reason you cite: he might play better in a better team environment with a true PG to get him the ball. For that reason, he is worth a risk. I'm just not ready to go "all in" and give up 2 future 1sts plus Seraphin, Crawford and Booker (all of whom are likely to pan out to be at least serviceable NBA players for a while). I think Seraphin and a 1st is enough.

I'm not convinced that others will offer considerably more. If Sacramento declines, there we wait. There will probably be another moment at some point next year when Cousins' antics lower his trade value again.
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Re: Official Trade Thread XXI (12/13/12 - present) 

Post#936 » by mhd » Mon Jan 21, 2013 9:35 pm

Ariza+Ves+Seraphin+unprotected 2013 1st for Horford?

Atl decides to tank for Wiggins/Parker/Randle next year and holds off spending any money this off-season. They now have their pick, Wiz pick, and Rockets pick to select some young cheap players.

Horford is signed longterm at a flat 12 million per year and provides a nice big rotation of Emeka, Horford, Nene, and Booker.

Resign Webster, and sign someone like Mike Dunlevy as a shooter/bench scorer and the team becomes:

PG: Wall/Price
SG: Beal/Crawford
SF: Webster/Dunleavy
PF: Horford/Booker
C: Nene/Emeka
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Re: Official Trade Thread XXI (12/13/12 - present) 

Post#937 » by fishercob » Mon Jan 21, 2013 9:38 pm

nate33 wrote:
fishercob wrote:Head case: sure. But so was Rasheed Wallace and he turned the Pistons from contenders to champions. The Bulls never would have three-peated the second time without Rodman. JR Smith is getting All-Star consideration. There was a time when Magic was called "Tragic Johnson" for being such a choker in big moments. Not too long ago Lebron couldn't get it done when it counted because of his problems between the ears.

Bad teammate: Haven't heard this -- not from Kings players, nor from Wall or other UK guys that year. Not saying it's not true, just saying it's news to me.

C'mon fish, you are reaching.

In what universe is J.R. Smith getting All-Star consideration? The guy is posting a TS% of .496. Jordan freaking Crawford is beating him in per-minute points, rebounds and assists, while posting a higher TS%. And I don't even what to get into the Magic and Lebron comparisons. And I can prove Cousins is a bad teammate simply by posting his Usg% in conjunction with his shooting percentage on jumpers.


You're missing my point, which is that perceptions change. I don't think JR Smith deserves All-Star dap, but he's part of the discussion on studio shows on TNT and NBATV (guys like Fratello, Kenny Smith, etc). It's because his team is good. Two years ago he was a coach killer and last year he was starting international incidents in China.

"Bad teammate" was not a reference to Cousins shot selection and usage as I understood it. I think it was of a suggestion along the lines of "locker room cancer" who cares more about himself than team success. And just as you astutely pointed out that Wall's turnovers and poor shooting could partially be the result of terrible teammates and him trying to shoulder too much of the load, couldn't it be the similar for Cousins?

fishercob wrote:I cannot help but wonder if Cousins, playing with a dynamic young backcourt and a steady veteran front line might not play better. His usage would invariably go down, and his efficiency may well go up with less of an offensive burden. The Kings have been a horrible defensive team his entire career, yet he has posted individual DRtg's well better than the team's measure. Again, I wonder if he'd be a defensive stud alongside our currently 10th ranked D, and perhaps push us into the elite.


His DRtg is good because DRtg is an extremely imprecise stat which basically amounts to a comparison of DRB%. Cousins gets a ton of defensive boards, so his DRtg is going to look good. That's not to say that I think Cousins is a really bad defender. I'm just saying that I don't particularly trust the DRtg stat. Overall, Cousins is intriguing for the reason you cite: he might play better in a better team environment with a true PG to get him the ball. For that reason, he is worth a risk. I'm just not ready to go "all in" and give up 2 future 1sts plus Seraphin, Crawford and Booker (all of whom are likely to pan out to be at least serviceable NBA players for a while). I think Seraphin and a 1st is enough.

I'm not convinced that others will offer considerably more. If Sacramento declines, there we wait. There will probably be another moment at some point next year when Cousins' antics lower his trade value again.


You're probably right about DRtg; I know little about the metric, but was just struck by his relative strength compared to the team's rating.

If Cousins is worth Seraphin and a high pick, he's only worth it because he has significant unrealized upside. I''d hate to pass up on that because we wanted to hang on to "at least servicable NBA players." You have to give to get and the Wiz would have to give Seattle reason to want to make a deal beyond just fair value. You're probably right about the inclusion of the 2nd first round pick, but I'd consider if it had lotto protection on it.
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Re: Official Trade Thread XXI (12/13/12 - present) 

Post#938 » by Nivek » Mon Jan 21, 2013 10:09 pm

I've already dedicated way too many pixels to Cousins.

Regarding drtg -- When extracted from the box score (which is how they do it at basketball-reference), I think it's possibly the worst thing Dean Oliver put in his book. (For my money, I wouldn't argue with anyone who wants to say it's his "smell test" line, which gets used inappropriately all the time.) It's basically a series calculations trying to estimate how many defensive possessions a player participated in and how many stops that player is responsible for using defensive rebounds, blocks, steals, fouls, and team-level stats. It can work okay in some situations, but it's not all that good -- especially for defenders who don't generate many blocks or steals.

The formulas underpinning drtg are excellent when combined with tracked data. Not very useful, however, when estimated using box score stats.
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Re: Official Trade Thread XXI (12/13/12 - present) 

Post#939 » by Dat2U » Mon Jan 21, 2013 11:29 pm

I kind of wished we traded Nene like yesterday. In the bits and pieces I've seen lately he looks like he's really laboring out there.

Holding on the Nene is compounding a foolish trade in the first place. Trusting him to stay healthy or hoping for his injury concerns to go away just doesn't make one bit of sense to me. It's part of the reason why I'm not completely optimistic about playing .500 basketball or close to from here on out. I'm really worried about Nene's ability to last the season.
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Re: Official Trade Thread XXI (12/13/12 - present) 

Post#940 » by Nivek » Mon Jan 21, 2013 11:40 pm

That "laboring" may be showing in the stats, dat. When I ran the stat update this morning, Nene was down to a PPA of 121 from 136 last week. That's a significant drop.
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