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Official Trade Thread XXI (12/13/12 - 02/06/13)

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Re: Official Trade Thread XXI (12/13/12 - present) 

Post#981 » by jivelikenice » Tue Jan 22, 2013 8:20 pm

Ruzious wrote:So, something like Nene to LAL, Lopez to Washington, and Howard to Brooklyn with some accoutrements thrown in. Gotta figure for the Lakers purposes, Nene is a much better fit than Okafor.


Nene is better but is tied up long-term and I don't think they want his contract on their books. Gasol goes to being the primary low post scorer with Okafor doing the dirty work
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Re: If we trade Nene/Okafor/Ariza, who's picking up the slac 

Post#982 » by Chocolate City Jordanaire » Tue Jan 22, 2013 8:52 pm

DaRealHibachi wrote:Been thinking about this for a while, especially since all 3 have been playing (somewhat) better lately. While I haven't checked the stats, I think it's safe to say that all 3 have a (positive) effect on different parts of our team;

Nene, offense and passing
Okafor, rebounding and post-defense
Ariza, perimeter defense (meh, maybe I wouldn't mind him leaving that much)

So yeah, back to them leaving; Who are we going to get that can "replace" these guys? They have size, length, strength, high BBIQ and most importantly, experience.. I don't believe the draft has anyone at their level on offense/defense/rebounding at our draft slot (+/- 7th pick). Trading might not be possible, since we have nothing trade-worthy (expect our future, which ofcourse, we need).

I would hate to watch this team next year if we start Wall/Beal/Webster(?)/?/? and being a non-playoff yet again, and no, I don't consider Seraphin, Singleton and Vesely as parts of our future team.

I'm not necessarily advocating for keeping them at their current salary, but what do you think of resigning/keeping them until we get better players, instead of fielding yet another talent-lacking team?

Discuss!


I think the right thing to do is to keep them this season and to enjoy the good things they bring to the team UNLESS a good to great offer is made for them. They are providing the very players you don't see as part of the future experience in winning. As for the players you don't see being part of the future, DRH, I think all three can be very solid rotation players on winning teams. This Wizards' team reminds me of the 2006-2007 Celtics.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/BOS/2007.html

They went 24-58 with a roster that included: Paul Pierce, Rashon Rondo, Kendrick Perkins, Al Jefferson, Delonte West, Leon Powe, Tony Allen, Ryan Gomes, and Gerald Green. The next season, the guys they kept won a championship. That could happen with the Wizards, too, if they draft right and make one great trade.

I think the best time for a trade would be at the end of the season, or possibly right before the deadline.

Singleton for a pick might be all that I would not hesitate to do.
Bye bye Beal.
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Re: If we trade Nene/Okafor/Ariza, who's picking up the slac 

Post#983 » by Chocolate City Jordanaire » Tue Jan 22, 2013 8:56 pm

Rafael122 wrote:Doubt Nene goes anywhere. Okafor will probably be traded next year since he's an expiring. Should the Wizards get Noel, Okafor would be there to bridge the gap.

Second, I may be a homer so take this prediction with a grain of salt but I really think Ariza is going to opt out and become a free agent.


Byron Russell opted out right before a great thing happened for the Wizards. The Clippers or another West team could use Ariza. I could see Trevor Ariza opting out as not too far-fetched.

I also agree that next season is a great time to trade Okafor's expiring deal.
Bye bye Beal.
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Re: Official Trade Thread XXI (12/13/12 - present) 

Post#984 » by Chocolate City Jordanaire » Tue Jan 22, 2013 9:09 pm

fishercob wrote:I just know that if we were to acquire a maxed out Brook Lopez he would surely cripple himself and never play again.


Lopez is overpaid. If he were worth the max deal they wouldn't be so eager to dump him for Howard. Lopez is maxed out but I don't see where he's that much better than Andrey Blatche.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/BRK/2013.html

If you look at TS%, ORB%, DRB%, TRB%, AST%, STL%, and WS/48 there is not a big difference between Blatche's play and Lopez's
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Re: Official Trade Thread XXI (12/13/12 - present) 

Post#985 » by fishercob » Tue Jan 22, 2013 9:14 pm

jivelikenice wrote:Let me throw something into the equation. Would you be willing to be the third party in a Brooklyn/LA deal where Lopez ends up here. I'm assuming LA wouldn't want to take on Brook's long-term deal and might be more enticed with a package centered around guys like Okafor, Ariza, Humphries, Brooks, picks. That would allow them to compete more now, not tie in long-term money, and gather picks for the post Kobe era.



Brooklyn trades: Lopez, Wallace
Brooklyn gets: Dwight, Ariza

Lakers get Dwight and downgrade at SF but still get a competent defensive role player

Lakers trade: Dwight
Lakers get: Okafor, Gerald Wallace, Crawford

Lakers address their D via a good banger,/boardman in Okafor and the ideal hybrid forward for D'antoni, and a much needed bench scorer. While Wallace is signed long term, Okafor isn't and Crawford is cheap. Much better scenario for them than Dwight walking for nothing.

Wiz trade: Okafor, Ariza, Crawford
Wiz get: Lopez.

24 year old all-star centers don't grow in trees. Wiz would also be about $10 under the cap this summer before picks or re-signing anyone.
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Re: Official Trade Thread XXI (12/13/12 - present) 

Post#986 » by Nivek » Tue Jan 22, 2013 9:22 pm

Chocolate City Jordanaire wrote:
fishercob wrote:I just know that if we were to acquire a maxed out Brook Lopez he would surely cripple himself and never play again.


Lopez is overpaid. If he were worth the max deal they wouldn't be so eager to dump him for Howard. Lopez is maxed out but I don't see where he's that much better than Andrey Blatche.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/BRK/2013.html

If you look at TS%, ORB%, DRB%, TRB%, AST%, STL%, and WS/48 there is not a big difference between Blatche's play and Lopez's


Keep in mind that Blatche is coming off the bench and Lopez is starting. Because Lopez is a low-minute starter (29.3 mpg), he's facing mostly starters while in the game. Blatche gets the benefit of going against bench guys for a substantial chunk of his minutes -- and it's easier to generate stats against bench guys (this has been shown in research by Mike Goodman over at APBRmetrics).

Using MikeG's starter% estimator, Lopez faces 80% starters in his minutes; Blatche 54%. Despite the higher degree of difficulty, Lopez this season has a slightly better offensive rating.

This isn't a knock on Blatche -- he's having BY FAR the best season of his career. But Lopez is performing better. My salary formula estimates Lopez as worth about $13.7 million overall. Per 36 minutes, the salary formula pegs his value at $16.4 million. This season, Lopez is getting paid $13.7 million. He'll be getting $16.7 million in 2015-16.

He's not the bargain Blatche is this year. Blatche, of course, is getting the league minimum. His per-36 performance is worth about $14.1 million, according to the salary formula. His total production (he's getting about 21 mpg) is worth $8.0 million.
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Re: Official Trade Thread XXI (12/13/12 - present) 

Post#987 » by Ruzious » Tue Jan 22, 2013 9:22 pm

Chocolate City Jordanaire wrote:
fishercob wrote:I just know that if we were to acquire a maxed out Brook Lopez he would surely cripple himself and never play again.


Lopez is overpaid. If he were worth the max deal they wouldn't be so eager to dump him for Howard. Lopez is maxed out but I don't see where he's that much better than Andrey Blatche.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/BRK/2013.html

If you look at TS%, ORB%, DRB%, TRB%, AST%, STL%, and WS/48 there is not a big difference between Blatche's play and Lopez's

I know you're itching to compare Lopez to Cousins. 8-) Btw, both Lopez' have really stepped up their games this year - at age 24.
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Re: Official Trade Thread XXI (12/13/12 - present) 

Post#988 » by gambitx777 » Tue Jan 22, 2013 9:26 pm

I do not want to give away a first round pick ! we need talent, there is NO WAY ted lets E.G. draft again this year so we have a chance of getting a good player. Also i wanted to see how you guys think that the griz cav's trade effects the trade market. they traded Marreese Speights, Wayne Ellington, Josh Selby and a future draft pick for Leuer. now they did this to stay under the tax but still.
I think that we need to go after more draft picks. I say we go to the nest and try to move nene to them. I think we need to get ride of NENE before he has no trade value what so ever.
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Re: If we trade Nene/Okafor/Ariza, who's picking up the slac 

Post#989 » by daSwami » Tue Jan 22, 2013 9:29 pm

yeah if we trade those guys we'll never make the play-offs!
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Re: Official Trade Thread XXI (12/13/12 - present) 

Post#990 » by tontoz » Tue Jan 22, 2013 9:35 pm

Nene > Lopez.

Lopez has weak efficiency, weak rebounding, no defense and is a total black hole.
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Re: Official Trade Thread XXI (12/13/12 - present) 

Post#991 » by Chocolate City Jordanaire » Tue Jan 22, 2013 9:39 pm

Nivek wrote:
Chocolate City Jordanaire wrote:
Lopez is overpaid. If he were worth the max deal they wouldn't be so eager to dump him for Howard. Lopez is maxed out but I don't see where he's that much better than Andrey Blatche.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/BRK/2013.html

If you look at TS%, ORB%, DRB%, TRB%, AST%, STL%, and WS/48 there is not a big difference between Blatche's play and Lopez's


Keep in mind that Blatche is coming off the bench and Lopez is starting. Because Lopez is a low-minute starter (29.3 mpg), he's facing mostly starters while in the game. Blatche gets the benefit of going against bench guys for a substantial chunk of his minutes -- and it's easier to generate stats against bench guys (this has been shown in research by Mike Goodman over at APBRmetrics).

Using MikeG's starter% estimator, Lopez faces 80% starters in his minutes; Blatche 54%. Despite the higher degree of difficulty, Lopez this season has a slightly better offensive rating.

This isn't a knock on Blatche -- he's having BY FAR the best season of his career. But Lopez is performing better. My salary formula estimates Lopez as worth about $13.7 million overall. Per 36 minutes, the salary formula pegs his value at $16.4 million. This season, Lopez is getting paid $13.7 million. He'll be getting $16.7 million in 2015-16.

He's not the bargain Blatche is this year. Blatche, of course, is getting the league minimum. His per-36 performance is worth about $14.1 million, according to the salary formula. His total production (he's getting about 21 mpg) is worth $8.0 million.


I never doubt your accuracy and I believe you, Nivek. Lopez is better than Blatche.

One observation: This season Blatche's best stats actually occurred the 7 games he started. I think Andray could be putting up even better stats if he weren't coming off the bench.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/pla ... lits/2013/
http://www.basketball-reference.com/pla ... lits/2013/

As starter (7 games), Blatche: 17.6 points, 8.9 rebounds over 29.5 minutes. He shot .545 FG%.
As starter (34 games), Lopez: 18.4 points, 7.4 rebounds over 29.5 minutes. He shoots .517 FG%

Blatche has played very good basketball this season.
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Re: Official Trade Thread XXI (12/13/12 - present) 

Post#992 » by gambitx777 » Tue Jan 22, 2013 9:40 pm

see thats why i do not really want lopez, i would rather do NENE for hump, brooks and/or their 2013 first. that seems fair to me considering hump is barley playing, and brooks is loosing playing time every game.
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Re: Official Trade Thread XXI (12/13/12 - present) 

Post#993 » by Ruzious » Tue Jan 22, 2013 9:52 pm

On Blatche v Lopes, while +/- can be mis-leading, it's interesting to note that through 1/15, Lopez had a +12.0 for Brooklyn, while Blatche had a -3.5.
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Re: Official Trade Thread XXI (12/13/12 - present) 

Post#994 » by jivelikenice » Tue Jan 22, 2013 10:01 pm

gambitx777 wrote:see thats why i do not really want lopez, i would rather do NENE for hump, brooks and/or their 2013 first. that seems fair to me considering hump is barley playing, and brooks is loosing playing time every game.


I don't see Nene going yet unless he requests a trade. Brooklyn is a team that would probably take him, but our team seems to be developing some chemistry and non of the pieces coming our way would be impactful. Humphries would play, but wouldn't brign that veteran presense. Brooks is a nice player, but is useless behind Beal and Crawford. The first round pick is ok but its a late pick in a weak draft AND we already have a lottery pick, two 2nd rd picks, and Satoransky on the way. If they trade before the deadline, it will be for a legit piece like a Rudy Gay/ Lopez/ Cousins type, or I see them standing pat until pre-draft.
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Re: If we trade Nene/Okafor/Ariza, who's picking up the slac 

Post#995 » by barelyawake » Tue Jan 22, 2013 10:07 pm

Nene and Wall are Fegan properties, as is Cousins. Wall (thus Fegan) can get the most money here. If we don't get Noel, one would hope we make a large push for Cousins. One would hope Wall and Cousins have been talking, and will continue to talk, about how beneficial that would be for all parties involved. Wall needs to help market this team to other players.
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Re: Official Trade Thread XXI (12/13/12 - present) 

Post#996 » by Dat2U » Tue Jan 22, 2013 10:11 pm

Hope for Cousins, live with Lopez, bet on Gay.
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Re: Official Trade Thread XXI (12/13/12 - present) 

Post#997 » by Nivek » Tue Jan 22, 2013 10:12 pm

I'd take Lopez over Nene. Yeah, he costs a little more, but he's also 24 years old to Nene's 30. I'd rather bet on Lopez being productive over the next 3 years (after this one) than Nene. Plus, Lopez is higher usage and more efficient overall. And, he's 24, which means there's a reasonable chance he'll get better. With Nene at 30 -- what you see is what you get. Until he starts to decline.
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Re: Official Trade Thread XXI (12/13/12 - present) 

Post#998 » by DANNYLANDOVER » Tue Jan 22, 2013 11:51 pm

gambitx777 wrote:see thats why i do not really want lopez, i would rather do NENE for hump, brooks and/or their 2013 first. that seems fair to me considering hump is barley playing, and brooks is loosing playing time every game.

Lol it seems that you wouldn't even trade our pick for Lebron James. It's about time we stopped living through the draft, you know , like not making a draft thread till after the playoffs. I know the uncertainty of a draft prospect is enticing, but if you have the opportunity to acquire good, young, established NBA players (Love, Cousins, Gay, Lopez,etc.), you just have to do it.
Personally, I will trade all our future picks, for the chance to be competing in the playoffs/championships every season.
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Re: Official Trade Thread XXI (12/13/12 - present) 

Post#999 » by nuposse04 » Wed Jan 23, 2013 12:15 am

Say we're actually supremely confident that we're going to play ourselves out of position from getting a pick that could help immediately...does this make sense from our end:

Ariza+Singleton+top 10 protected pick this year, top 5 next year

for

Ersan+2nd round pick

I think Ersan is slightly overpaid, but I think he'd flourish next to Wall.
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Re: Official Trade Thread XXI (12/13/12 - present) 

Post#1000 » by hands11 » Wed Jan 23, 2013 1:55 am

So at what point does Boston start selling out. Like LA, they are spending a lot of money to not be very good.

Seems like the league is going through one of those transition period and the new cap rules are going to start leveling the playing field.

How good a team has to be to be good is going to start to change.

I mean, what does Boston really have. Rondo, PP and an aging KG. And old Jason Terry. They are at 70M next year with just 10 players.

As for overvaluing draft picks, I agree. They are good sometimes. Other times they are a waste. Its a crap shoot most drafts. Most players take time to develop. But in every draft there seems to be a few nuggets like Lillard. He is a baby Westbrook.

The key to the NBA is you have to find value and build a core with the right personalities. Duncan isn't just productive, he is the right person to anchor that team and he has done it forever. You can pay a guy like that a ton and not get burned. Same with a KD. Problem is, to many people overpay for player that look like they are great but don't have to personality to anchor a team. For example, I would never overpay D Howard. He is no T Duncan. The same reason I would have never paid Gil that much money. To much of a flake to hook your anchor to.

You have to be very careful who you pay double digit millions to. Specially when you start getting into the 15M range. Very few players are really worth that. But you need to find the ones that are. Because they are pure gold.

Nene... I think he is worth every penny of 13M. He is that level of player both in play and personality. For me, I look at talent but I look at personality equally. Nick Y has talent, but not the personality to be great or sometimes even useful.

You find the right player that fit what you need wherever you can. Can't be to young of a team nor to old. Right now the Wizards have a decent mix. They need to be mindful of not letting go of vets like Trevor A and Okafor before it makes sense. I wouldn't do it for picks. They would need productive players in return.

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