Official Trade Thread XXI (12/13/12 - 02/06/13)

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Lopez is overpaid. If he were worth the max deal they wouldn't be so eager to dump him for Howard. Lopez is maxed out but I don't see where he's that much better than Andrey Blatche.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/BRK/2013.html

If you look at TS%, ORB%, DRB%, TRB%, AST%, STL%, and WS/48 there is not a big difference between Blatche's play and Lopez's

Keep in mind that Blatche is coming off the bench and Lopez is starting. Because Lopez is a low-minute starter (29.3 mpg), he's facing mostly starters while in the game. Blatche gets the benefit of going against bench guys for a substantial chunk of his minutes -- and it's easier to generate stats against bench guys (this has been shown in research by Mike Goodman over at APBRmetrics).

Using MikeG's starter% estimator, Lopez faces 80% starters in his minutes; Blatche 54%. Despite the higher degree of difficulty, Lopez this season has a slightly better offensive rating.

This isn't a knock on Blatche -- he's having BY FAR the best season of his career. But Lopez is performing better. My salary formula estimates Lopez as worth about $13.7 million overall. Per 36 minutes, the salary formula pegs his value at $16.4 million. This season, Lopez is getting paid $13.7 million. He'll be getting $16.7 million in 2015-16.

He's not the bargain Blatche is this year. Blatche, of course, is getting the league minimum. His per-36 performance is worth about $14.1 million, according to the salary formula. His total production (he's getting about 21 mpg) is worth $8.0 million.

I never doubt your accuracy and I believe you, Nivek. Lopez is better than Blatche.

One observation: This season Blatche's best stats actually occurred the 7 games he started. I think Andray could be putting up even better stats if he weren't coming off the bench.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/pla ... lits/2013/
http://www.basketball-reference.com/pla ... lits/2013/

As starter (7 games), Blatche: 17.6 points, 8.9 rebounds over 29.5 minutes. He shot .545 FG%.
As starter (34 games), Lopez: 18.4 points, 7.4 rebounds over 29.5 minutes. He shoots .517 FG%

Blatche has played very good basketball this season.

[gambitx777]

see thats why i do not really want lopez, i would rather do NENE for hump, brooks and/or their 2013 first. that seems fair to me considering hump is barley playing, and brooks is loosing playing time every game.

[Ruzious]

On Blatche v Lopes, while +/- can be mis-leading, it's interesting to note that through 1/15, Lopez had a +12.0 for Brooklyn, while Blatche had a -3.5.

[jivelikenice]

see thats why i do not really want lopez, i would rather do NENE for hump, brooks and/or their 2013 first. that seems fair to me considering hump is barley playing, and brooks is loosing playing time every game.

I don't see Nene going yet unless he requests a trade. Brooklyn is a team that would probably take him, but our team seems to be developing some chemistry and non of the pieces coming our way would be impactful. Humphries would play, but wouldn't brign that veteran presense. Brooks is a nice player, but is useless behind Beal and Crawford. The first round pick is ok but its a late pick in a weak draft AND we already have a lottery pick, two 2nd rd picks, and Satoransky on the way. If they trade before the deadline, it will be for a legit piece like a Rudy Gay/ Lopez/ Cousins type, or I see them standing pat until pre-draft.

[barelyawake]

Nene and Wall are Fegan properties, as is Cousins. Wall (thus Fegan) can get the most money here. If we don't get Noel, one would hope we make a large push for Cousins. One would hope Wall and Cousins have been talking, and will continue to talk, about how beneficial that would be for all parties involved. Wall needs to help market this team to other players.

[Dat2U]

Hope for Cousins, live with Lopez, bet on Gay.

[Nivek]

I'd take Lopez over Nene. Yeah, he costs a little more, but he's also 24 years old to Nene's 30. I'd rather bet on Lopez being productive over the next 3 years (after this one) than Nene. Plus, Lopez is higher usage and more efficient overall. And, he's 24, which means there's a reasonable chance he'll get better. With Nene at 30 -- what you see is what you get. Until he starts to decline.

[DANNYLANDOVER]

see thats why i do not really want lopez, i would rather do NENE for hump, brooks and/or their 2013 first. that seems fair to me considering hump is barley playing, and brooks is loosing playing time every game.

Lol it seems that you wouldn't even trade our pick for Lebron James. It's about time we stopped living through the draft, you know , like not making a draft thread till after the playoffs. I know the uncertainty of a draft prospect is enticing, but if you have the opportunity to acquire good, young, established NBA players (Love, Cousins, Gay, Lopez,etc.), you just have to do it.
Personally, I will trade all our future picks, for the chance to be competing in the playoffs/championships every season.

[nuposse04]

Say we're actually supremely confident that we're going to play ourselves out of position from getting a pick that could help immediately...does this make sense from our end:

Ariza+Singleton+top 10 protected pick this year, top 5 next year

for

Ersan+2nd round pick

I think Ersan is slightly overpaid, but I think he'd flourish next to Wall.

[hands11]

So at what point does Boston start selling out. Like LA, they are spending a lot of money to not be very good.

Seems like the league is going through one of those transition period and the new cap rules are going to start leveling the playing field.

How good a team has to be to be good is going to start to change.

I mean, what does Boston really have. Rondo, PP and an aging KG. And old Jason Terry. They are at 70M next year with just 10 players.

As for overvaluing draft picks, I agree. They are good sometimes. Other times they are a waste. Its a crap shoot most drafts. Most players take time to develop. But in every draft there seems to be a few nuggets like Lillard. He is a baby Westbrook.

The key to the NBA is you have to find value and build a core with the right personalities. Duncan isn't just productive, he is the right person to anchor that team and he has done it forever. You can pay a guy like that a ton and not get burned. Same with a KD. Problem is, to many people overpay for player that look like they are great but don't have to personality to anchor a team. For example, I would never overpay D Howard. He is no T Duncan. The same reason I would have never paid Gil that much money. To much of a flake to hook your anchor to.

You have to be very careful who you pay double digit millions to. Specially when you start getting into the 15M range. Very few players are really worth that. But you need to find the ones that are. Because they are pure gold.

Nene... I think he is worth every penny of 13M. He is that level of player both in play and personality. For me, I look at talent but I look at personality equally. Nick Y has talent, but not the personality to be great or sometimes even useful.

You find the right player that fit what you need wherever you can. Can't be to young of a team nor to old. Right now the Wizards have a decent mix. They need to be mindful of not letting go of vets like Trevor A and Okafor before it makes sense. I wouldn't do it for picks. They would need productive players in return.

[dangermouse]

I think we'll be fine without Okafor/Ariza. Nene on the other hand, we are not going to be even competitive without him.

Right now we are paying ~$14m for a rebounder and garbage man, and ~$7m for a not-very-good 3&D guy who is coming off the bench.

Webster is better than Riza. If we moved Riza to free up money to sign Webster for a little less, maybe around the same, than what we are paying Trevor right now, thats a good move in my books.

Its hard to find a double-double shotblocking big body. Okafor has played well of late, but he is too expensive and too inconsistent on offense to really be anything more than a very attractive expiring contract next year.

I agree with above, and I think Okafor could be used in a trade for Cousins (along with our prot. pick) and one of the KingSonics bad contracts. The SuperKings might want to start clean and fresh with all new guys. Which would be why they want our 1st. Cousins is good but they might see his tantrums and whatnot as something they dont want their new (old) franchise to be associated with.

[dangermouse]

Say we're actually supremely confident that we're going to play ourselves out of position from getting a pick that could help immediately...does this make sense from our end:

Ariza+Singleton+top 10 protected pick this year, top 5 next year

for

Ersan+2nd round pick

I think Ersan is slightly overpaid, but I think he'd flourish next to Wall.

Have you been hooking into the Milwaukee's Best? Take out that pick! WAY too much for Ersan.

I think value is near enough to equal without the pick. Bucks could really use Ariza at SF too.

[nuposse04]

Say we're actually supremely confident that we're going to play ourselves out of position from getting a pick that could help immediately...does this make sense from our end:

Ariza+Singleton+top 10 protected pick this year, top 5 next year

for

Ersan+2nd round pick

I think Ersan is slightly overpaid, but I think he'd flourish next to Wall.

Have you been hooking into the Milwaukee's Best? Take out that pick! WAY too much for Ersan.

I think value is near enough to equal without the pick. Bucks could really use Ariza at SF too.

Well truthfully, I don't think anyone in this draft will be better than Ersan (In the right system) after the top 10. That and Ersan is actually having good games as of late, bucks fans may inflate his value more than we might. Ariza is a serviceable SF for them, but its mostly to clear salary, they have a lot of similar SFs as it right now. Luc, Harris. I'm not exactly sure what they need, or if they'd be even willing to part with him. They have talent at most positions, but nothing proven, kinda like us Sans Beal, Wall, and Nene.

And Mil's Best might be the worst tasting "beverage" on the planet.

[TGW]

You don't give up picks for players like Ersan, unless it's a second rounder. The chance of getting a player better than Ersan in the draft is worth more.

Anyway, do you think our FO is still interested in Enes Kanter or Derrick Favors? I'm still interested in getting either player, and I would trade Seraphin, Crawford, Vesely, and even our first this year to do so.

[gambitx777]

Say we're actually supremely confident that we're going to play ourselves out of position from getting a pick that could help immediately...does this make sense from our end:

Ariza+Singleton+top 10 protected pick this year, top 5 next year

for

Ersan+2nd round pick

I think Ersan is slightly overpaid, but I think he'd flourish next to Wall.

No way is ersan worth our fist! i know you may think that this draft is "weak" but its not. it might be lacking a clear super star. but it if full of under the radar, NBA starting caliber talent. We should not give up on this draft so easily.

I don't see Nene going yet unless he requests a trade. Brooklyn is a team that would probably take him, but our team seems to be developing some chemistry and non of the pieces coming our way would be impactful. Humphries would play, but wouldn't brign that veteran presense. Brooks is a nice player, but is useless behind Beal and Crawford. The first round pick is ok but its a late pick in a weak draft AND we already have a lottery pick, two 2nd rd picks, and Satoransky on the way. If they trade before the deadline, it will be for a legit piece like a Rudy Gay/ Lopez/ Cousins type, or I see them standing pat until pre-draft.

Here is the thing, i think we need to realize that NENE is a ticking time bomb. he could blow any day now. we need a big man who can put up some point and rebound and hump can do that. I think we move crawford at some point as well so getting brooks would then make sense. Plus i feel that there are good players to be had late in this draft. That pick will be in the early 20's and around there you can still get some good shooters like Tim Hardaway Jr.and Doug McDermott.

Lol it seems that you wouldn't even trade our pick for Lebron James. It's about time we stopped living through the draft, you know , like not making a draft thread till after the playoffs. I know the uncertainty of a draft prospect is enticing, but if you have the opportunity to acquire good, young, established NBA players (Love, Cousins, Gay, Lopez,etc.), you just have to do it.
Personally, I will trade all our future picks, for the chance to be competing in the playoffs/championships every season.

I probably would't
Love could end up being injury prone, Cousins is a basket case, gay is not worth our first round pick, and lopez is not a complete player. It's not time we stop living through the draft. would you like to know how many starters on OKC were drafted by them, 4 out of 5. We should not stop living in the draft, How well did giving away our first in 2009 for good established nba players work out for us? we should find someone who can actually draft well. E.G. f**ked the draft in 2011. he made bad picks! there were players that we could have taken that could make us better if we had taken them. We need to make good solid picks, we can not make picks on upside or projects with one solid skill anymore.