Nivek wrote:Chocolate City Jordanaire wrote:
Lopez is overpaid. If he were worth the max deal they wouldn't be so eager to dump him for Howard. Lopez is maxed out but I don't see where he's that much better than Andrey Blatche.
http://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/BRK/2013.html
If you look at TS%, ORB%, DRB%, TRB%, AST%, STL%, and WS/48 there is not a big difference between Blatche's play and Lopez's
Keep in mind that Blatche is coming off the bench and Lopez is starting. Because Lopez is a low-minute starter (29.3 mpg), he's facing mostly starters while in the game. Blatche gets the benefit of going against bench guys for a substantial chunk of his minutes -- and it's easier to generate stats against bench guys (this has been shown in research by Mike Goodman over at APBRmetrics).
Using MikeG's starter% estimator, Lopez faces 80% starters in his minutes; Blatche 54%. Despite the higher degree of difficulty, Lopez this season has a slightly better offensive rating.
This isn't a knock on Blatche -- he's having BY FAR the best season of his career. But Lopez is performing better. My salary formula estimates Lopez as worth about $13.7 million overall. Per 36 minutes, the salary formula pegs his value at $16.4 million. This season, Lopez is getting paid $13.7 million. He'll be getting $16.7 million in 2015-16.
He's not the bargain Blatche is this year. Blatche, of course, is getting the league minimum. His per-36 performance is worth about $14.1 million, according to the salary formula. His total production (he's getting about 21 mpg) is worth $8.0 million.
I never doubt your accuracy and I believe you, Nivek. Lopez is better than Blatche.
One observation: This season Blatche's best stats actually occurred the 7 games he started. I think Andray could be putting up even better stats if he weren't coming off the bench.
http://www.basketball-reference.com/pla ... lits/2013/
http://www.basketball-reference.com/pla ... lits/2013/
As starter (7 games), Blatche: 17.6 points, 8.9 rebounds over 29.5 minutes. He shot .545 FG%.
As starter (34 games), Lopez: 18.4 points, 7.4 rebounds over 29.5 minutes. He shoots .517 FG%
Blatche has played very good basketball this season.