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Kings Suspend Cousins Indefinitely - reinstated 12/25

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Post#181 Re: Kings Suspend Cousins Indefinitely - rein
Sat Jan 5, 2013 10:54 pm by hands11

DANNYLANDOVER wrote:
nate33 wrote:We really need Seraphin to start playing like he did last year and up his trade value. If Seraphin continues to play like crap, we really have no assets other than Beal or a first round pick. And I'd prefer not to give up either (unless that pick has substantial protection).

Yeah, the Kings would be absolutely insane to trade Cousins for anything less than a lottery pick and a decent young player. Dude just scored 31 pts and had 20 rebs. I can't remember a Wiz player in my lifetime that could actually do that. There's no way they're only taking Nene or Seraphin for him.


Why more then a lottery pick. That is all they spent on him.

Depending on who is on the board, we have our own lottery pick.

Whoever gets him only get one more year at $4,916,973 and the QO at $6,519,198

Then they will likely have to pay him some big dollars.

Sure he can put up big numbers. Hell, Dray posted big numbers.

Now over the last four games, he has been on a tear. 23 pts 17 rebounds 4 assists per game. :o

Lets see how long that lasts. Maybe this is him focused and auditioning for Ted.

If he really wants to come here with John, that would be the best thing for him to do. Have him work it out will Wall that he is going to turn it on for them. Show us what he can do. Then suck again so we can get him cheap. Have another blow up. Back closet deal between Wall and Cousins. :wink:

Hey, if he is coming here. He doesn't want it to cost up to much to get him.

Right now would be a terrible time to get him.
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Post#182 Re: Kings Suspend Cousins Indefinitely - rein
Sat Jan 5, 2013 11:45 pm by Mickstix

hands11 wrote:Why more then a lottery pick. That is all they spent on him.


Look at it this way: Would you trade a "winning lotto ticket" heads up, for a "lotto ticket"?? There's no guarantee your going to get another winner..
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Post#183 Re: Kings Suspend Cousins Indefinitely - rein
Sat Jan 5, 2013 11:59 pm by hands11

Mickstix wrote:
hands11 wrote:Why more then a lottery pick. That is all they spent on him.


Look at it this way: Would you trade a "winning lotto ticket" heads up, for a "lotto ticket"?? There's no guarantee your going to get another winner..


That is the question that isn't answered that will get more answered in time. And none of us know how much time there is to decide.

What is our pick.
Who is available.
What is Cousins.
What do they want for him
What are others offering.
And what do we really have once healthy.

There is the debate.
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Post#184 Re: Kings Suspend Cousins Indefinitely - rein
Sun Jan 6, 2013 1:58 am by DANNYLANDOVER

GhostsOfGil wrote:
DANNYLANDOVER wrote:
nate33 wrote:We really need Seraphin to start playing like he did last year and up his trade value. If Seraphin continues to play like crap, we really have no assets other than Beal or a first round pick. And I'd prefer not to give up either (unless that pick has substantial protection).

Yeah, the Kings would be absolutely insane to trade Cousins for anything less than a lottery pick and a decent young player. Dude just scored 31 pts and had 20 rebs. I can't remember a Wiz player in my lifetime that could actually do that. There's no way they're only taking Nene or Seraphin for him.

Kwame brown says how dare u forget about him.

Lol I apologize everyone. Although, I'd rather forget about Kwame's time here. Also, I'm not suggesting that we trade an unprotected 1st rd pick for Cousins and to be honest, I'd rather watch knuckleheads that produce on the court than the dross we have to put up with (Vesely, Seraphin, etc.)
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Post#185 Re: Kings Suspend Cousins Indefinitely - rein
Sun Jan 6, 2013 8:50 am by penbeast0

Mickstix wrote:
Look at it this way: Would you trade a "winning lotto ticket" heads up, for a "lotto ticket"?? There's no guarantee your going to get another winner..


The problem is, Cousins isn't a winning lotto ticket, he's a potential disaster with potential upside and the maturity needed to turn stats into winning basketball skills is probably a few years away . . . after his rookie contract has run out and he has gone free agent. I'd guess the odds of getting a player that will help make us title contenders is higher in a top 10 pick than in DeMarcus Cousins . . . about the same if you are looking at the 10-17 range.
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Post#186 Re: Kings Suspend Cousins Indefinitely - rein
Sun Jan 6, 2013 9:45 am by hands11

Question is, is Cousins a 2nd teamer or a 3rd teamer. Meaning, how many teams will he have to go to before becoming a solid productive player who fits in and is productive on a winning team. Right now his stats are inflated.

I think most think he can be valuable on a good team but when ? He should be able to rebound well. Everyone needs that. He is big and has an edge.

What would be produce.
What is that worth?

No doubt he should be a double double machine. Should be worth at least Okafor money or McGee money.

Is he as valuable as Nene ? I don't think so but then again, Nene is signed to a contract that is good value. 13M for Nene is a solid contract.

Cousins at 11, 12, 13M could be a good contract.
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Post#187 Re: Kings Suspend Cousins Indefinitely - rein
Sun Jan 6, 2013 10:41 am by nate33

We don't want to get caught up in a bidding war for Cousins. We need leverage. We need Cousins and/or his agent to demand a trade to a very small subset of teams (hopefully just us). Then we can make a lowball offer.
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Post#188 Re: Kings Suspend Cousins Indefinitely - rein
Sun Jan 6, 2013 2:08 pm by montestewart

penbeast0 wrote:
Mickstix wrote:
Look at it this way: Would you trade a "winning lotto ticket" heads up, for a "lotto ticket"?? There's no guarantee your going to get another winner..


The problem is, Cousins isn't a winning lotto ticket, he's a potential disaster with potential upside and the maturity needed to turn stats into winning basketball skills is probably a few years away . . . after his rookie contract has run out and he has gone free agent. I'd guess the odds of getting a player that will help make us title contenders is higher in a top 10 pick than in DeMarcus Cousins . . . about the same if you are looking at the 10-17 range.

There were measures and other evidence that Cousins might be the best (most talented, capable of being most productive, etc.) in his draft class. There's a reason CCJ was so high on him, there's a reason WoW (or someone writing there), among others, had him highest rated. There's also a reason that, in the face of so much evidence, he fell to 5th, and his professional career has reflected some of the behavior that created that hesitation. He was a gamble then and he's a gamble now. A potentially extremely productive gamble. Worth trying to get, but don't bet the ranch on it.
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Post#189 Re: Kings Suspend Cousins Indefinitely - rein
Sun Jan 6, 2013 2:20 pm by pancakes3

It's more of a half-scratched lotto ticket that guarantees a minimum of 10k and a shot at a full mill but is disqualified from the powerball 200mil prize vs a brand new powerball ticket. A very specific and probably nonexistant set of lottery conditions.
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Post#190 Re: Kings Suspend Cousins Indefinitely - rein
Sun Jan 6, 2013 3:35 pm by hands11

nate33 wrote:We don't want to get caught up in a bidding war for Cousins. We need leverage. We need Cousins and/or his agent to demand a trade to a very small subset of teams (hopefully just us). Then we can make a lowball offer.


Exactly.

He is a nice option but we shouldn't jump just to jump.

There are several ways this team can get better. Knowing Cousins is an option is good. But it has to be the right time at the right price.

Right now he is to hot and the Wizards are about to get to see what they look like healthy. Not a good time to make a move.
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Post#191 Re: Kings Suspend Cousins Indefinitely - rein
Mon Jan 7, 2013 3:52 am by noworriesinmd

@NBAonNBCBoston tweeted this at 8pm.
http://www.nbaonnbc.com/profiles/blogs/ ... us-cousins

Looks like we are out the Cousins' sweepstakes. I have no idea what Boston would give to get Cousins. They are positioning themselves for a multi-team trade.
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Post#192 Re: Kings Suspend Cousins Indefinitely - rein
Mon Jan 7, 2013 4:10 am by Knighthonor

noworriesinmd wrote:@NBAonNBCBoston tweeted this at 8pm.
http://www.nbaonnbc.com/profiles/blogs/ ... us-cousins

Looks like we are out the Cousins' sweepstakes. I have no idea what Boston would give to get Cousins. They are positioning themselves for a multi-team trade.

CRAP CRAP CRAAAAPPP
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Post#193 Re: Kings Suspend Cousins Indefinitely - rein
Mon Jan 7, 2013 4:21 am by WizarDynasty

pretty sad to say the least. Keep Wall and Beal and trade everyone else for Cousins. Grunfeld Management team is notorious for grabbing bad deals and over value Wizards own assets.
Wall and Cousins are soul mates. If you are willing to draft Vesely solely because you think he fits well with your franchise, why would you not gut your team for the perfect compliment to wall for decades to come. Makes no sense.
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Post#194 Re: Kings Suspend Cousins Indefinitely - rein
Mon Jan 7, 2013 7:28 am by blazinskillz

Cousins, Garcia and John Salmons for Okafor, Vesley, Kevin Seraphin and 2 1st round picks(2013)(2014 top 8 protected)

Why this works for the wizards

Cousins and Nene frontcourt would be the best in the east...maybe league.
Wall gets to play with his good friend
Wizards turns into a Eastern Conference contender
John Salmons can create his own shot?

Why this works for Sacramento

Rebuild with solid pieces
Wizards are likely to get a top 3 pick agin this year
Gets rid of John Salmons contract
Okafor will be expiring next year, could be use as bait?
Would have 2 lottery picks this year and possible next year as well
Could resign Seraphin for much cheaper that it would have cost for Cousins while having cap space
to go after some nice free agents in 2014
Could develop Vesley?

I think this is a fair trade

Basically the wizards gets cousins and the kings gets a nice rebuilding package. Some may say the wizards are giving up a little too much, but lets be honest, they aren't going nowhere unless they make some changes. boogie would give u 20-10. He's shooting in the low 40's but he's an impact player in this league.
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Post#195 Re: Kings Suspend Cousins Indefinitely - rein
Mon Jan 7, 2013 8:05 am by Nivek

I wouldn't give up a single first round pick to get Cousins much less two. He MIGHT be a great player someday, but he is being colossally overrated. Trade anything for him except Beal, Wall or a 1st round pick.

And you can't just glide past that awful shooting percentage. The list of PF/C types who shot this poorly through their first 3 seasons is not impressive. It includes some guys who became solid players like: Zaza Pachulia, Clifford Robinson, Donyell Marshall and Erick Dampier.

But it mainly consists of scrubs and worse: Michael Doleac, Terrence Morris, Shawn Bradley, Jared Jeffries, Tellis Frank, Michael Ruffin, Chris Dudley, Chris Mihm, Yi Jianlian, DeSagana Diop, Nikoloz Tskitishvili.

But Cousins is a great rebounder.

Yep, he's 2nd in rebound rate among awful shooting PF/Cs. Right behind Jamie Feick; ahead of Chris Dudley and Michael Ruffin and Chris Andersen.

But Cousins has a PER 3 points better than the next guy on this list.

Yep, because he shoots the most. His usage rate is 28.5 through his first three season -- 6.0 points higher than the next guy on this list. This actually makes Cousins' inefficiency more damaging to his team. An inefficient offensive player who doesn't use possessions limits his damage. A guy like Cousins just keeps piling up the wasted possessions.

And so on through the categories. And then add in the attitude issues and immaturity. I'd still trade for him if the price was low enough and hope that my coaching staff could get him to change his shot selection. But I would not give up 1st round picks to get him.*


* Well, I would give up a first round pick, but it would have to be lottery protected at a minimum.
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Post#196 Re: Kings Suspend Cousins Indefinitely - rein
Mon Jan 7, 2013 9:42 am by blazinskillz

So who in next year draft has better potential than Cousins? AT LEAST he at the very least has proved he can be a player int his league. All of what you typed screams "I dont like this guy....so let me skew some numbers to my liking..to prove a point." Cousins is what? 22 yrs old? Who says he can't improve as things start to get slower for him.
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Post#197 Re: Kings Suspend Cousins Indefinitely - rein
Mon Jan 7, 2013 9:50 am by nate33

Nivek wrote:I wouldn't give up a single first round pick to get Cousins much less two. He MIGHT be a great player someday, but he is being colossally overrated. Trade anything for him except Beal, Wall or a 1st round pick.

And you can't just glide past that awful shooting percentage. The list of PF/C types who shot this poorly through their first 3 seasons is not impressive. It includes some guys who became solid players like: Zaza Pachulia, Clifford Robinson, Donyell Marshall and Erick Dampier.

But it mainly consists of scrubs and worse: Michael Doleac, Terrence Morris, Shawn Bradley, Jared Jeffries, Tellis Frank, Michael Ruffin, Chris Dudley, Chris Mihm, Yi Jianlian, DeSagana Diop, Nikoloz Tskitishvili.

But Cousins is a great rebounder.

Yep, he's 2nd in rebound rate among awful shooting PF/Cs. Right behind Jamie Feick; ahead of Chris Dudley and Michael Ruffin and Chris Andersen.

But Cousins has a PER 3 points better than the next guy on this list.

Yep, because he shoots the most. His usage rate is 28.5 through his first three season -- 6.0 points higher than the next guy on this list. This actually makes Cousins' inefficiency more damaging to his team. An inefficient offensive player who doesn't use possessions limits his damage. A guy like Cousins just keeps piling up the wasted possessions.

And so on through the categories. And then add in the attitude issues and immaturity. I'd still trade for him if the price was low enough and hope that my coaching staff could get him to change his shot selection. But I would not give up 1st round picks to get him.*


* Well, I would give up a first round pick, but it would have to be lottery protected at a minimum.

Cosign.

Only I would only need top 10 protection, not full lotto protection. The way I see it, if Cousins is a good enough addition to get us out of the top of the lottery, then it will have been an investment well worth it. If Cousins bombs, then we will continue to suck and won't have to give up that pick.
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Post#198 Re: Kings Suspend Cousins Indefinitely - rein
Mon Jan 7, 2013 10:38 am by Nivek

blazinskillz wrote:So who in next year draft has better potential than Cousins? AT LEAST he at the very least has proved he can be a player int his league. All of what you typed screams "I dont like this guy....so let me skew some numbers to my liking..to prove a point." Cousins is what? 22 yrs old? Who says he can't improve as things start to get slower for him.


I don't "like" or "dislike" Cousins -- I'm analyzing his performance. If you don't like what I type, you have a few options: don't read what I post, put me on ignore, or do your own research to demonstrate the error of my ways.

Back to the topic: Cousins is an excellent rebounder and looks like a good passer for center. The combination of his high possession usage and his poor shooting hurts his team. Add in the attitude/maturity issues and he's a risk. He's a risk worth taking, but not at full price -- especially since he'll need a new contract at the end of next season.

Can Cousins improve? OF COURSE. I expect him to get better. Many players improve through their first 3-4 seasons. For bigs, it's probably 3-5 years. For young bigs, even more. But, some players also don't continue improving. Given Cousins' immaturity and attitude, how much he improves has to be questioned. Which gets back to the issue of risk and how to manage it. Pay two 1st round picks for him and he absolutely, positively MUST become an All-Star caliber player. Otherwise, the team is screwed now and in the future. Keep the picks, and if he doesn't work out, the team still has assets it can use to continue building. If you're certain he's going to be a great player -- fine. I'm not certain at all. I think he COULD be one of the game's best bigs. But he also could be fool's gold.

I don't know that the game needs to "get slower" -- he's in his third season and he has 5000+ career minutes. What he needs to do is what most inefficient players need to do, which is to change the way he plays the game. In his case, that means changing shot selection. Sorta like what Blatche has done in Brooklyn.

As for the draft, I've done limited work in Ye Olde Draft Analyzer, but Zeller and McLemore look like excellent prospects -- better prospects than Cousins coming out of college. When Cousins came out, he was kind of a 1A to Wall, but it was actually a pretty weak draft. Neither guy would have rated as the top pick in most drafts.
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Post#199 Re: Kings Suspend Cousins Indefinitely - rein
Mon Jan 7, 2013 10:42 am by MikeTheKid

I just put it in the other teams moves thread but it looks like DMC maybe a Celtic today.
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Post#200 Re: Kings Suspend Cousins Indefinitely - rein
Mon Jan 7, 2013 11:11 am by Nivek

Just looked up players similar to Cousins in terms of per minute scoring and rebounding. Guys who started their careers averaging at least 19 points and 11 rebounds per 36 minutes -- an impressive lot.

- David Robinson
- Charles Barkley
- Shaquille O'Neal
- Arvydas Sabonis
- Hakeem Olajuwon
- Jeff Ruland
- Tim Duncan
- Ralph Sampson

And Cousins, of course. The potential to be great is there.

But drill down a little and some important differences emerge. Avg player in this group had 15.3 FGA per 36 -- Cousins had 17.1. Avg player: 8.1 FGM; Cousins: 7.5. Avg FG%: .527; Cousins: .438. Only guy on this list to shoot more frequently than Cousins was Shaq, and Shaq had a .583 FG%. That difference is enormous. Here's a quick comparison of Cousins to the avg of this group:

Code: Select all
STAT    DC      Avg
MIN     29.6    34.9
PTS     19.6    21.2
FGA     17.1    15.3
FTA     6.6     7.2
REB     11.9    11.6
AST     2.7     2.7
STL     1.5     1.2
BLK     1.1     2.1
TOV     3.6     3.3
PF      4.8     3.8
FG%     .438    .527
FT%     .709    .691
Ortg    99      110
PPA     101     168


Stats are per 36 minutes.
Ortg = points produced per 100 possessions.
PPA = my overall measure, which basically credits players for doing things that help a team win and debits them for things that don't (in proper proportion to what causes teams to win and lose) In PPA, average = 100 and higher is better.

A PPA of 168 (average for this group) would typically be in the top 15-20 players in the league. Robinson and Shaq had ratings through their 1st three seasons typical of an MVP candidate.

PPA illustrates just how much Cousins inefficiency hurts. If he shot .527 (average for this group of players), his PPA would be 158, which would put him among the top 25 players in the league. Which would be outstanding at age 22.
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