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Kings Suspend Cousins Indefinitely - reinstated 12/25

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Re: Kings Suspend Cousins Indefinitely - reinstated 12/25 

Post#196 » by blazinskillz » Mon Jan 7, 2013 2:42 pm

So who in next year draft has better potential than Cousins? AT LEAST he at the very least has proved he can be a player int his league. All of what you typed screams "I dont like this guy....so let me skew some numbers to my liking..to prove a point." Cousins is what? 22 yrs old? Who says he can't improve as things start to get slower for him.
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Re: Kings Suspend Cousins Indefinitely - reinstated 12/25 

Post#197 » by nate33 » Mon Jan 7, 2013 2:50 pm

Nivek wrote:I wouldn't give up a single first round pick to get Cousins much less two. He MIGHT be a great player someday, but he is being colossally overrated. Trade anything for him except Beal, Wall or a 1st round pick.

And you can't just glide past that awful shooting percentage. The list of PF/C types who shot this poorly through their first 3 seasons is not impressive. It includes some guys who became solid players like: Zaza Pachulia, Clifford Robinson, Donyell Marshall and Erick Dampier.

But it mainly consists of scrubs and worse: Michael Doleac, Terrence Morris, Shawn Bradley, Jared Jeffries, Tellis Frank, Michael Ruffin, Chris Dudley, Chris Mihm, Yi Jianlian, DeSagana Diop, Nikoloz Tskitishvili.

But Cousins is a great rebounder.

Yep, he's 2nd in rebound rate among awful shooting PF/Cs. Right behind Jamie Feick; ahead of Chris Dudley and Michael Ruffin and Chris Andersen.

But Cousins has a PER 3 points better than the next guy on this list.

Yep, because he shoots the most. His usage rate is 28.5 through his first three season -- 6.0 points higher than the next guy on this list. This actually makes Cousins' inefficiency more damaging to his team. An inefficient offensive player who doesn't use possessions limits his damage. A guy like Cousins just keeps piling up the wasted possessions.

And so on through the categories. And then add in the attitude issues and immaturity. I'd still trade for him if the price was low enough and hope that my coaching staff could get him to change his shot selection. But I would not give up 1st round picks to get him.*


* Well, I would give up a first round pick, but it would have to be lottery protected at a minimum.

Cosign.

Only I would only need top 10 protection, not full lotto protection. The way I see it, if Cousins is a good enough addition to get us out of the top of the lottery, then it will have been an investment well worth it. If Cousins bombs, then we will continue to suck and won't have to give up that pick.
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Re: Kings Suspend Cousins Indefinitely - reinstated 12/25 

Post#198 » by Nivek » Mon Jan 7, 2013 3:38 pm

blazinskillz wrote:So who in next year draft has better potential than Cousins? AT LEAST he at the very least has proved he can be a player int his league. All of what you typed screams "I dont like this guy....so let me skew some numbers to my liking..to prove a point." Cousins is what? 22 yrs old? Who says he can't improve as things start to get slower for him.


I don't "like" or "dislike" Cousins -- I'm analyzing his performance. If you don't like what I type, you have a few options: don't read what I post, put me on ignore, or do your own research to demonstrate the error of my ways.

Back to the topic: Cousins is an excellent rebounder and looks like a good passer for center. The combination of his high possession usage and his poor shooting hurts his team. Add in the attitude/maturity issues and he's a risk. He's a risk worth taking, but not at full price -- especially since he'll need a new contract at the end of next season.

Can Cousins improve? OF COURSE. I expect him to get better. Many players improve through their first 3-4 seasons. For bigs, it's probably 3-5 years. For young bigs, even more. But, some players also don't continue improving. Given Cousins' immaturity and attitude, how much he improves has to be questioned. Which gets back to the issue of risk and how to manage it. Pay two 1st round picks for him and he absolutely, positively MUST become an All-Star caliber player. Otherwise, the team is screwed now and in the future. Keep the picks, and if he doesn't work out, the team still has assets it can use to continue building. If you're certain he's going to be a great player -- fine. I'm not certain at all. I think he COULD be one of the game's best bigs. But he also could be fool's gold.

I don't know that the game needs to "get slower" -- he's in his third season and he has 5000+ career minutes. What he needs to do is what most inefficient players need to do, which is to change the way he plays the game. In his case, that means changing shot selection. Sorta like what Blatche has done in Brooklyn.

As for the draft, I've done limited work in Ye Olde Draft Analyzer, but Zeller and McLemore look like excellent prospects -- better prospects than Cousins coming out of college. When Cousins came out, he was kind of a 1A to Wall, but it was actually a pretty weak draft. Neither guy would have rated as the top pick in most drafts.
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Re: Kings Suspend Cousins Indefinitely - reinstated 12/25 

Post#199 » by MikeTheKid » Mon Jan 7, 2013 3:42 pm

I just put it in the other teams moves thread but it looks like DMC maybe a Celtic today.
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Re: Kings Suspend Cousins Indefinitely - reinstated 12/25 

Post#200 » by Nivek » Mon Jan 7, 2013 4:11 pm

Just looked up players similar to Cousins in terms of per minute scoring and rebounding. Guys who started their careers averaging at least 19 points and 11 rebounds per 36 minutes -- an impressive lot.

- David Robinson
- Charles Barkley
- Shaquille O'Neal
- Arvydas Sabonis
- Hakeem Olajuwon
- Jeff Ruland
- Tim Duncan
- Ralph Sampson

And Cousins, of course. The potential to be great is there.

But drill down a little and some important differences emerge. Avg player in this group had 15.3 FGA per 36 -- Cousins had 17.1. Avg player: 8.1 FGM; Cousins: 7.5. Avg FG%: .527; Cousins: .438. Only guy on this list to shoot more frequently than Cousins was Shaq, and Shaq had a .583 FG%. That difference is enormous. Here's a quick comparison of Cousins to the avg of this group:

Code: Select all

STAT    DC      Avg
MIN     29.6    34.9
PTS     19.6    21.2
FGA     17.1    15.3
FTA     6.6     7.2
REB     11.9    11.6
AST     2.7     2.7
STL     1.5     1.2
BLK     1.1     2.1
TOV     3.6     3.3
PF      4.8     3.8
FG%     .438    .527
FT%     .709    .691
Ortg    99      110
PPA     101     168


Stats are per 36 minutes.
Ortg = points produced per 100 possessions.
PPA = my overall measure, which basically credits players for doing things that help a team win and debits them for things that don't (in proper proportion to what causes teams to win and lose) In PPA, average = 100 and higher is better.

A PPA of 168 (average for this group) would typically be in the top 15-20 players in the league. Robinson and Shaq had ratings through their 1st three seasons typical of an MVP candidate.

PPA illustrates just how much Cousins inefficiency hurts. If he shot .527 (average for this group of players), his PPA would be 158, which would put him among the top 25 players in the league. Which would be outstanding at age 22.
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Re: Kings Suspend Cousins Indefinitely - reinstated 12/25 

Post#201 » by Chocolate City Jordanaire » Mon Jan 7, 2013 4:42 pm

MikeTheKid wrote:I just put it in the other teams moves thread but it looks like DMC maybe a Celtic today.


For Boston, the potential reward is very high and the risk is minimized to being relatively low.

Boston makes sense because their window of opportunity coincides with Cousins' rookie deal. Garnett and Pierce are winding down. There is no way DeMarcus runs off Doc Rivers anytime in the next two seasons. If any current coach can manage his outbursts and channel his aggression successfully, Doc can. Garnett and Pierce are old enough to be respected as father figures. Rondo would become the best player he's ever played with, including John Wall. Rondo is a Kentucky alum, just like DeMarcus. Those stabilizing factors improve Cousins' chances to succeed. He would be coming to a strong core and a very positive basketball environment.

Of all the teams he could go to, Boston makes the most sense.
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Re: Kings Suspend Cousins Indefinitely - reinstated 12/25 

Post#202 » by tontoz » Mon Jan 7, 2013 5:02 pm

blazinskillz wrote:So who in next year draft has better potential than Cousins? AT LEAST he at the very least has proved he can be a player int his league. All of what you typed screams "I dont like this guy....so let me skew some numbers to my liking..to prove a point." Cousins is what? 22 yrs old? Who says he can't improve as things start to get slower for him.



Jordan Crawford has proven that he can be a player in this league. He just hasn't proven he can be a good one. Neither has Cousins.
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Re: Kings Suspend Cousins Indefinitely - reinstated 12/25 

Post#203 » by Nivek » Mon Jan 7, 2013 5:03 pm

Tweet from NBA analyst Couper Moorhead:

Couper wrote:Last 3 years, among players 6'9"+, nobody has shot a worse % (.543) in the restricted area than DeMarcus Cousins (500+ FGA)
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Re: Kings Suspend Cousins Indefinitely - reinstated 12/25 

Post#204 » by GhostsOfGil » Mon Jan 7, 2013 5:15 pm

Nivek wrote:Tweet from NBA analyst Couper Moorhead:

Couper wrote:Last 3 years, among players 6'9"+, nobody has shot a worse % (.543) in the restricted area than DeMarcus Cousins (500+ FGA)


Ouch thats a pretty painful stat but this year he's made some improvements in converting inside. The only part of his game I dislike is his confidence in his long range shot. Over 50% of his shot attempts are jumpers.
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Re: Kings Suspend Cousins Indefinitely - reinstated 12/25 

Post#205 » by blazinskillz » Mon Jan 7, 2013 6:26 pm

@Nivek stop catching so much feelings. I never said I didnt like what you post, hell I dont agree with a lot of stuff I read on here, should I put everyone on ignore? I'm not impress by your Hollinger-esque NBA stats to mathematics but I at lewast appreciate your contributions
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Re: Kings Suspend Cousins Indefinitely - reinstated 12/25 

Post#206 » by Nivek » Mon Jan 7, 2013 6:30 pm

blazinskillz wrote:@Nivek stop catching so much feelings. I never said I didnt like what you post, hell I dont agree with a lot of stuff I read on here, should I put everyone on ignore? I'm not impress by your Hollinger-esque NBA stats to mathematics but I at lewast appreciate your contributions


See, now you've hurt me.

My stats stuff is WAAAAAY better than Hollinger's.




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Re: Kings Suspend Cousins Indefinitely - reinstated 12/25 

Post#207 » by LyricalRico » Mon Jan 7, 2013 6:33 pm

^ Would it be more accurate if he said your stats stuff was a "Hollinger-type of situation"?

:D
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Re: Kings Suspend Cousins Indefinitely - reinstated 12/25 

Post#208 » by Nivek » Mon Jan 7, 2013 6:42 pm

Not really.

Though I think I'd be happy with Hollinger's employment situation.
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Re: Kings Suspend Cousins Indefinitely - reinstated 12/25 

Post#209 » by Chocolate City Jordanaire » Mon Jan 7, 2013 7:56 pm

Nivek wrote:Tweet from NBA analyst Couper Moorhead:

Couper wrote:Last 3 years, among players 6'9"+, nobody has shot a worse % (.543) in the restricted area than DeMarcus Cousins (500+ FGA)


How bad would Cousins shoot playing on Boston with Rondo, Perkins, and Garnett as teammates? How much of his shooting inefficiency is situational?

Andray Blatche can't finish above the rim as well as DeMarcus Cousins. A huge knock on Andray Blatche's game as a Wizard was that he shot poorly. However, Andray suddenly shoots better with the Brooklyn Nets.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/pla ... can01.html

Blatche's career eFG% is .465 but this season he's shooting .497. His career PER is 16.1 but he's up to 23.4 this season. The Wizards amnestied a player who is currently 9th in the league in PER and fourth in ORB%. :o

I digress. Blatche has better teammates and he's very effective now. However, he's still got the same weaknesses he always had.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/pla ... ting/2013/

Blatche is shooting .333 from 3 to 9 feet. He's only shooting .278 from 9 to 15 feet if the shot chart stats are to be believed. He excels from 16 feet to 3PT at .472. The difference is he's getting a lot more at the rim. A lot higher percentage of his shots come right at the rim AND he's finishing better due to being in shape.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/pla ... ting/2013/

Looking at Cousins' shooting it is really easy to say that he can't shoot well anywhere but within three feet. Dunks and layups are all he needs to take. If I were to predict for a team like Boston I think Cousins would be very similar to Blatche for them. Blatche improved from shooting 45% on 2 point shots for the Wizards to shooting 50% for the Nets. Quality of shots and confidence levels makes a big difference. Playing with an elite playmaker makes a difference.

If Cousins were a Wizard I wonder what would restrain him from taking bad shots and how good the quality of his shots would be. Obviously, a lot would depend on the availability of a healthy John Wall to facilitate Cousins getting his share of dunks and layups.
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Re: Kings Suspend Cousins Indefinitely - reinstated 12/25 

Post#210 » by Nivek » Mon Jan 7, 2013 8:41 pm

CCJ: You're making the exact point the stat I posted (from Couper) is making. The issue with Cousins is the same as it was with Blatche -- shot selection. Blatche's shooting improved this season because he stopped taking so many long 2s.

Blatche actually does a better job of converting at-rim than Cousins does. Even so, Cousins could significantly improve his shooting percentage if he'd cut back on the long 2s and focus on getting more of his attempts at-rim.
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