Kool-Aid Drinking, Season Turnaround Thread

[dobrojim]

naw, don't think so.

why aim so low?

the goal should be to win out

the expectation for us fans ought to be .600 or better

[cwb3]

This thread seems somewhat less ironic now than at its inception.

[montestewart]

Goal should be to go .500 the rest of the way, which would be ~21 wins and ~31 wins to finish the season.

A number of people on the board, myself included, figured the team could win in the 36-44 range if healthy. I even thought they might exceed that 36 wins before the Okariza trade, and I think maybe CCJ, hands11 and some others thought likewise.

Collectively, Vesely/Seraphin/Booker/Singleton are playing below what I expected, but Okafor/Ariza/Webster/Price are collectively exceeding my expectations, and Beal, Wall, and Nene are currently playing about where I was hoping they would be. I was hoping Wall's jumper would be a little further along, but he is otherwise looking pretty good .

If they reach or exceed 31 wins, in spite of injuries, I would see that as generally meeting or exceeding reasonable expectations. Seeing all those recent draft picks underperform leaves me pretty unsure about the Wizards' long-term prospects, but I'm pretty happy with the way the team's playing right now, especially after that horrible start.

[dobrojim]

BTW - the brutal next 2 weeks that Fish (and I) alluded to is:

(after @PHL on Wed)

@ MEM (they've cooled off and are beatable)
@ SAN (we NEVER beat them, that team knows how to play the right way)
vs Floppers (love to win this one, not counting on it although if CP3 is still out...)
vs Nix (will Melo be 9-29 or 14-25? that is the question)
vs BKN (god help us if we get Blatched)

winning 3 of these would be pretty good, not losing all 5 would be some solace

[nate33]

BTW - the brutal next 2 weeks that Fish (and I) alluded to is:

(after @PHL on Wed)

@ MEM (they've cooled off and are beatable)
@ SAN (we NEVER beat them, that team knows how to play the right way)
vs Floppers (love to win this one, not counting on it although if CP3 is still out...)
vs Nix (will Melo be 9-29 or 14-25? that is the question)
vs BKN (god help us if we get Blatched)

winning 3 of these would be pretty good, not losing all 5 would be some solace

We never beat San Antonio when we were a low bball IQ team that was consistently victimized by their ball movement. It was like grown men playing teenagers.

I'm not so sure that it's a foregone conclusion that we will lose this time. I'm not saying we will win, they're still a better team. I'm just saying that we are no longer the type of team that is intrincically incapable of beating them.

[dobrojim]

^ I agree with you but even though we're both drinking the Koolaid,
it's worth remembering how infrequent Ws against the Spurs are for us.

That said, we are, for the moment, a different team than just about any
I can remember in my long history as a Buzzards fan.

[Zonkerbl]

As I said earlier, to get to .500 the wiz would need to go 17-3 at home and 12-8 on the road. Of the top tier teams they play at home, they only face LAC and Miami, so they can lose ONE OTHER home game besides those. Or win those two and lose two more to someone else. Whatever.

They have much more freedom to lose on the road, only having to collect 12 road wins. They could help their cause by going 4-1 in February (they only have five road games? am I reading the schedule correctly?), with the only scary game against SA.

They have nine road games in March, with only one truly terrifying one against OKC. And none of the April road games are against championship contenders either. So doable. Unlikely, but doable.

[nate33]

BTW - the brutal next 2 weeks that Fish (and I) alluded to is:

(after @PHL on Wed)

@ MEM (they've cooled off and are beatable)
@ SAN (we NEVER beat them, that team knows how to play the right way)
vs Floppers (love to win this one, not counting on it although if CP3 is still out...)
vs Nix (will Melo be 9-29 or 14-25? that is the question)
vs BKN (god help us if we get Blatched)

winning 3 of these would be pretty good, not losing all 5 would be some solace

We never beat San Antonio when we were a low bball IQ team that was consistently victimized by their ball movement. It was like grown men playing teenagers.

I'm not so sure that it's a foregone conclusion that we will lose this time. I'm not saying we will win, they're still a better team. I'm just saying that we are no longer the type of team that is intrincically incapable of beating them.

Come to think of it, our team right now is quite similar to the Spurs in many ways.

Nene is like Duncan in that he's a skilled, heady post player who facilitates the offense from the post rather than just looking to score for himself. Obviously, Duncan is better on the defensive end thanks to his length, but Nene is no slouch defensively.

Wall is a lot like Parker in that he's unstoppable in the open court and can get into the lane almost at will. Parker is the better shooter, Wall the better defender.

At SF, a hybrid of Webster and Ariza would be much like Kawhi Leonard: an ideal 3&D SF who specializes in the corner 3.

Jordan Crawford is a homeless man's Manu Ginobili in that he plays SG but is the primary ball handler for the second unit and does a little bit of everything (minus Ginobili's efficiency).

We play tough, disciplined D like San Antonio. We have a plethora of grunt big men to come off the bench and bang like San Antonio. The one thing we really lack is a stretch 4 like San Antonio.

[dobrojim]

Tom Bonner, where are you?

[Nivek]

Matt?

[LyricalRico]

Well, he does have a younger brother named Luke. Let's give him a 10-day! LOL

[dobrojim]

I know what it is...there used to be a guy here at work name Tom Bonner.
He retired a few years ago. Senior moment.

[MDStar]

If the Wizards somehow continue to play well and effectively win 60% of the rest of their games, which misses the playoffs but would be an amazing turnaround. Does that then justify EG and Teddy? And does that dispel the notion that making other moves (Ryan Anderson, Danny Green, Ersan Illysova) would have been better for us this past off-season?

In my opinion it kinda does. I know we are 11-31, which is terrible but i wonder if the Wizards may have actually found a money ball type solution, one in which couldn't withstand injuries to their two best players but once healthy somehow clicks to be a pretty damn good team. Of course, this goes out the window if this is just a nice run. However for conversational, what-if purposes, I wonder what the thinking would be if we sustain this level of play.

[Zonkerbl]

One thing for sure -- there are enough games left in the season to make a solid evaluation as to the quality of this team. Do or die time for EG.

[tontoz]

The Hawks increased their win total for 5 straight seasons but in the end they couldn't get past the second round. Their draft blunders (childress at 6, Marvin at 2, Shelden at 5) did them in.

I am sure EG would consider them a model of success but i don't.

[Upper Decker]

While everyone's drinking the kool-aid, let me indulge. Suppose the Wiz made the Beal/Singleton for James Harden deal. With the way they’re playing now would they be a legit contender to knock off the Heat in the playoffs? I’m not saying win a championship, but could they actually go toe-to-toe with the best in the league and beat them in a seven game series?

It’s be a lethal combination of an explosive athletic backcourt, paired with a couple of grunt big’s who Miami couldn’t match. Webster and Ariza wouldn’t shut down Lebron by any stretch of the imagination, but they’d do as well as any SF pairing in the East. One way or another, it’d be a fantastic series and it’s a shame the trade didn’t happen. If Jabba the Ted made the Harden deal I suppose the Wiz would be 6 games better than what they are and primed to make a serious run to end the season…Ah, what might have been.

[closg00]

If the Wizards somehow continue to play well and effectively win 60% of the rest of their games, which misses the playoffs but would be an amazing turnaround. Does that then justify EG and Teddy? And does that dispel the notion that making other moves (Ryan Anderson, Danny Green, Ersan Illysova) would have been better for us this past off-season?

In my opinion it kinda does. I know we are 11-31, which is terrible but i wonder if the Wizards may have actually found a money ball type solution, one in which couldn't withstand injuries to their two best players but once healthy somehow clicks to be a pretty damn good team. Of course, this goes out the window if this is just a nice run. However for conversational, what-if purposes, I wonder what the thinking would be if we sustain this level of play.

That depends on whether you are building a contending team, or one just good-enough to compete for the 8th seed. The last time Ernie acquired short-term rentals, he proclaimed that Foye/Miller would be with us of years to come.

Ted will show his hand if he does not aggressively pursue the personnel to put us in contention...even if it puts him over the cap.

Folks on the board have said repeatedly early that Nene and Okariza could pay short-term dividends for the team and a return us competitive basketball. I am enjoying the run immensely and waiting to see what moves we make in the future. Judging by history, we don't do much long-term planning.

[fishercob]

End of thread.

[GhostsOfGil]

End of thread.

[FAH1223]

End of thread.

Yup. No playoffs talk... Please!