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No Pussyfooting! When do we hit .500?

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No Pussyfooting! When do we hit .500? 

Post#1 » by JWizmentality » Mon Jan 14, 2013 10:22 pm

I say 40-40.


































.....he he. I wrote p*ssy in the title. :D
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Re: No Pussyfooting! When do we hit .500? 

Post#2 » by closg00 » Mon Jan 14, 2013 10:26 pm

The Denver and Clipper games will be good barometers. The Bulls are blowing-out ATL now and Orlando is up and down.
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Re: No Pussyfooting! When do we hit .500? 

Post#3 » by MikeTheKid » Mon Jan 14, 2013 10:32 pm

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Re: No Pussyfooting! When do we hit .500? 

Post#4 » by Benjammin » Mon Jan 14, 2013 10:34 pm

November 3rd....2013.
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Re: No Pussyfooting! When do we hit .500? 

Post#5 » by JWizmentality » Mon Jan 14, 2013 10:41 pm

Benjammin wrote:November 3rd....2013.


Party poopers. :(
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Re: No Pussyfooting! When do we hit .500? 

Post#6 » by miller31time » Mon Jan 14, 2013 10:49 pm

Looks like I'm gonna have to break out the ol' "lock and ban".
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Re: No Pussyfooting! When do we hit .500? 

Post#7 » by nuposse04 » Mon Jan 14, 2013 11:04 pm

they'd have to go 34-13.....That would be like nearly as miraculous as the Redskins run to end the season...I'd love to see it...but I'mma go with....YES
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Re: No Pussyfooting! When do we hit .500? 

Post#8 » by Chocolate City Jordanaire » Mon Jan 14, 2013 11:12 pm

nuposse04 wrote:they'd have to go 34-13.....That would be like nearly as miraculous as the Redskins run to end the season...I'd love to see it...but I'mma go with....YES


Beat OKC. Beat ATL by 10. Favored by 2 but beat ORL by 29….

Very motivated team that really did a good job not bailing out on each other during the worst of times...

Last season they won their last 6 and 8 of their last 10. If they can win 5 of their next 7, then they have to go 29-11. If they win 15 of their next 20, they would need to finish 19-8. Very, very, highly unlikely this happens--unless this win streak can go on another 4-5 games.
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Re: No Pussyfooting! When do we hit .500? 

Post#9 » by Ed Wood » Mon Jan 14, 2013 11:28 pm

So would a 0-0 record technically be disqualified because of the whole dividing-by-zero issue? Are we talking an even record in a strictly mathematical way or is this more of a metaphysical state? Please these are all very important issues that must be resolved prior to my reply.
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Re: No Pussyfooting! When do we hit .500? 

Post#10 » by AFM » Tue Jan 15, 2013 12:11 am

28-28
WizarDynasty wrote:Ted is trying to transform you from a bullet .....piece of metal shot from a gin into a wizard....wise.... wisest fans in the .ba. board has a long way to go but ee have wise wizard posters to guide into Ted the savior rescue operation.
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Re: No Pussyfooting! When do we hit .500? 

Post#11 » by JWizmentality » Tue Jan 15, 2013 12:23 am

miller31time wrote:Looks like I'm gonna have to break out the ol' "lock and ban".


B*itch I dare ya!
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Re: No Pussyfooting! When do we hit .500? 

Post#12 » by pineappleheadindc » Tue Jan 15, 2013 12:35 am

miller31time wrote:Looks like I'm gonna have to break out the ol' "lock and ban".



LOL!

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Re: No Pussyfooting! When do we hit .500? 

Post#13 » by tontoz » Tue Jan 15, 2013 12:41 am

AFM wrote:28-28



I'll have what he's having.
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Re: No Pussyfooting! When do we hit .500? 

Post#14 » by AFM » Tue Jan 15, 2013 12:45 am

We'll see who has the last laugh tontoz.
WizarDynasty wrote:Ted is trying to transform you from a bullet .....piece of metal shot from a gin into a wizard....wise.... wisest fans in the .ba. board has a long way to go but ee have wise wizard posters to guide into Ted the savior rescue operation.
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Re: No Pussyfooting! When do we hit .500? 

Post#15 » by Nivek » Tue Jan 15, 2013 10:17 am

In his book, Dean Oliver addressed the issue of winning streaks. He makes the point that a team that wins 70% of its games should have 3-game win streaks about 35% of the time. A team that wins 30% of its games -- about 3% of the time.

Dean Oliver wrote:That does not mean your local .300 team will rarely win three straight games. "Three percent of the time" means that the .300 team will win 3 straight for 3 percent of the (independent) three-game sequences in a season. Given that an NBA season is 82 games long, there are a lot of three-game sequences. ... In fact...there is actually about a 90% chance that a .300 team will win three in a row sometime in the season.


So, what does the Wizards 3-game winning streak mean? They're a .200 team at the moment. According to the able on page 70 of Dean's book, a .200 team has a 47% chance of winning three straight at some point during an 82-game schedule. Their odds are lower in a shorter season. Dean also has a table for a 32-game season, which is close enough to 35 for this. A .200 team has about a 21% chance of winning 3 in a row during a 32-game season; a .300 team has a 56% chance.

Getting to ~.300 is a reasonable goal for the Wizards this season. They'd have to go 18-29 the rest of the way to get there. They'd finish the season with 24-25 wins.
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Re: No Pussyfooting! When do we hit .500? 

Post#16 » by Ruzious » Tue Jan 15, 2013 10:41 am

I'm still sticking with my preseason prediction of exactly 30.5 wins.
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Re: No Pussyfooting! When do we hit .500? 

Post#17 » by Zonkerbl » Tue Jan 15, 2013 11:13 am

To get to .500, they'd have to win 41 games. They have 7 wins so far, and have played 35, so they have 47 games left to play. So, to win 41 games, they need to win 34 of the next 47 games (34-13). That's a win percentage of 72.3%, giving them a record equivalent to San Antonio's, about a 59 win pace. A 50 win team has a win percentage of 61%.

If they go on a tear and win their next seven games for a ten game winning streak, they will have 14 wins with 40 games left to win another 27, so they would need to go 27-13 over that stretch. That's a .675 probability of winning each game, about equal to Miami which has gone 24-12 so far, a 55 win pace.

If they had a 61% win percentage over the next 47 games, they would win 29 games and finish up with 36 wins. After a 7 game win streak, a 61% win percentage over the next 40 games would give them another 24 wins, good for a total of 38 wins.

So... does this team look like it could win at a 59 win pace for 47 games?
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I would have Ves be the first PF off the bench so he can play with Wall. Seraphin would have to get his minutes backing up Okafor at C.

I think Vesely could maintain the kind of production he had yesterday, and Okafor. Beal as well. Price is the only one playing at an unsustainable level right now, and that production should be replaced by Wall's as his minutes go up. So I think this team will do well. I think a 50 game pace is not too optimistic, so most likely we'll end up with something like 36 wins. If we have as much good luck to end the season as we had bad luck to start it, we might squeak out a lucky 40 wins. Not terribly likely though.
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Re: No Pussyfooting! When do we hit .500? 

Post#18 » by Induveca » Tue Jan 15, 2013 11:17 am

We will lose 4 in a row soon enough and all this nonsense, sadly, will be forgotten.
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Re: No Pussyfooting! When do we hit .500? 

Post#19 » by tontoz » Tue Jan 15, 2013 11:35 am

Ruzious wrote:I'm still sticking with my preseason prediction of exactly 30.5 wins.



I can say with confidence they won't win 30.5 games lol.

Seriously though my prediction of 35 wins seems like a spec in the distance. Having a strong defense allows you to win even when your offense is off. But this offense has been soooo bad.....
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Re: No Pussyfooting! When do we hit .500? 

Post#20 » by Higga » Tue Jan 15, 2013 11:52 am

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