No Pussyfooting! When do we hit .500?

[Ruzious]

I'm still sticking with my preseason prediction of exactly 30.5 wins.

[Zonkerbl]

To get to .500, they'd have to win 41 games. They have 7 wins so far, and have played 35, so they have 47 games left to play. So, to win 41 games, they need to win 34 of the next 47 games (34-13). That's a win percentage of 72.3%, giving them a record equivalent to San Antonio's, about a 59 win pace. A 50 win team has a win percentage of 61%.

If they go on a tear and win their next seven games for a ten game winning streak, they will have 14 wins with 40 games left to win another 27, so they would need to go 27-13 over that stretch. That's a .675 probability of winning each game, about equal to Miami which has gone 24-12 so far, a 55 win pace.

If they had a 61% win percentage over the next 47 games, they would win 29 games and finish up with 36 wins. After a 7 game win streak, a 61% win percentage over the next 40 games would give them another 24 wins, good for a total of 38 wins.

So... does this team look like it could win at a 59 win pace for 47 games?
Healthy Wall/Price
Beal/Crawford
Webster/Ariza
Healthy Nene/Ves/Booker
Okafor/Seraphin

I would have Ves be the first PF off the bench so he can play with Wall. Seraphin would have to get his minutes backing up Okafor at C.

I think Vesely could maintain the kind of production he had yesterday, and Okafor. Beal as well. Price is the only one playing at an unsustainable level right now, and that production should be replaced by Wall's as his minutes go up. So I think this team will do well. I think a 50 game pace is not too optimistic, so most likely we'll end up with something like 36 wins. If we have as much good luck to end the season as we had bad luck to start it, we might squeak out a lucky 40 wins. Not terribly likely though.

[Induveca]

We will lose 4 in a row soon enough and all this nonsense, sadly, will be forgotten.

[tontoz]

I'm still sticking with my preseason prediction of exactly 30.5 wins.

I can say with confidence they won't win 30.5 games lol.

Seriously though my prediction of 35 wins seems like a spec in the distance. Having a strong defense allows you to win even when your offense is off. But this offense has been soooo bad.....

[Higga]

[cwb3]

Sometime in 2014.

[penbeast0]

Followup question . . . when the Wiz do reach the .500 mark and make the playoffs . . . is John Wall going to win the MVP award?

[dobrojim]

Too funny. But I like people with sense of humor. And I like optimists.
There is a season tix holder behind me who predicted last night
we make the playoffs which he thinks we can do with 38 wins.

math wizard says we have 47 games left and would need to win 31 to get
to 38 wins. Not bloody likely. Also we'd have to pass 7 teams in the standings,
AND right now, the 8th seed has a +.500 record so 38 wins wouldn't do it.

This is how Ernie can keep his job and Ted can sell season tix...by the existence
of crazy optimistic fans.

[Illuminaire]

Followup question . . . when the Wiz do reach the .500 mark and make the playoffs . . . is John Wall going to win the MVP award?

Dude, stop being ridiculous. The Janchise has that locked up.

[pineappleheadindc]

We will lose 4 in a row soon enough and all this nonsense, sadly, will be forgotten.

[JWizmentality]

We will lose 4 in a row soon enough and all this nonsense, sadly, will be forgotten.

Take him out to the streets and beat him!

[JWizmentality]

[mohammed10]

I'm still sticking with my preseason prediction of exactly 30.5 wins.

Was that including preseason?