Official Trade Thread XXII (2/6/13 - 4/1/13)

[TheKingOfVa360]

The first priority should be improving the rest of the roster that went 4-28 in Wall's absence but hey, what do I know?

Hmmm, Let's resign the 31 yr old big so he can retire a Wizard. Then lets give the minimum salaried FA a big pay day and of course Nene's presence is too important to risk losing, bad wheels in all, Continuity is important after all. Gotta keep that core that started 4-28 together.

Oh, but we should trade the 22 yr old PG because he's not a game changing star yet.

Yep, I guess that makes total sense.

Amazing post, I agree with everything you are saying. The roster without Wall was by far the worst team in the NBA.

[nate33]

The first priority should be improving the rest of the roster that went 4-28 in Wall's absence but hey, what do I know?

My response is that trading Wall for a starter plus a lotto pick would be a way to improve the rest of the roster.

Hmmm, Let's resign the 31 yr old big so he can retire a Wizard.

Who said we should resign Okafor?

Then lets give the minimum salaried FA a big pay day

Martell Webster currently ranks 27th in the league in ORtg. If you ignore low usage bigs who only put back offensive boards, then he ranks 17th. Let's not act like Webster is some scrub. The guy is having an extremely good year and is only 26 years old. I hardly think that paying him $3-4M a year somehow sabotage's our long term potential.

...and of course Nene's presence is too important to risk losing, bad wheels in all, Continuity is important after all. Gotta keep that core that started 4-28 together.

If you trade Nene, please explain to me how we are going to replace his production. If you have a plan, I'm all ears. Certainly a Nene trade isn't off the table.

Oh, but we should trade the 22 yr old PG because he's not a game changing star yet.
Yep, I guess that makes total sense.

Yes. It does make total sense if we get back a less glamorous starter like Kyle Lowry who happens to be a better player, and we also get a lotto pick or recent lotto pick like Valanciunas.

[fishercob]

Hmm, we were 4-28 without Wall... somehow were only 13-9 with Wall. So obviously the solution by many here is to trade Wall because he's obviously the problem.

Pure Genius!

My openness to moving Wall has more to do with what I think it will take to re-sign him than the fact that he's a bad player. While his shooting, turnovers, and decision-making remain quite suspect, I agree that it's not just magic that the team went from really bad without to pretty decent with him. Kev did a nice post on the effect he's had on his teammates shooting percentages. There's also the much harder to quantify presence that he brings on defense.

He was the #1 overall pick. He's going to want -- with a strong push from his agent and his union -- a max contract, and he's not close to worth it. If I was confident he'd take somewhere between ROndo and Mike Conley money I'd be much less concerned. But in the age of this new CBA, there's just nothing worse than overpaying a guy for the long term who isn't worth it.

As a sidebar, the Wizards are culpable in Wall's salary expectations because they treated like a franchise savior from the moment he was drafted and marketed him to be something much better than he actually was/is.

But I'd think long and hard about that Toronto package, or Greivis, Ryan Anderson and a lotto pick for Wall and change.

[dandrews]

Giving up on a 22 year old point guard that oozes potential is something I would expect out of Ernie, not some of the brighter posters on this forum.

2 weeks ago he was being hailed as the next Gary Payton, and now he struggles for 2 games and every trade scenario for him is being concocted. Talk about overreacting.

[gambitx777]

Well,
1. when i brought this up, it was under the assumption that we had a new GM, Wall should stay if E.G. does because he would never get a good deal for him.

2. I do feel we should dump NENE, Okafur, ariza, and Jan.

Now, I feel that we are not going to get good pieces if we trade away NENE, okafur ariza and Jan. I just feel that this rebuild was done the wrong way, we went after "vets" when we should have stayed committed to goring from the ground up. Plus we drafted badly and could not evaluate 2ed round talent to save our lives.

I am not saying Wall is not good enough, I am saying that if we trade him now, we can get a massive return. Then we can aford to dump NENE, Ariza, Okafur and Jan, for what ever we can get for them.

NENE and Okafur would blow out on us at any minute. We have to many holes on this team as it is. If we commit to doing it the right way, we will be better off in the long run. If we make smart moves with Wall, NENE, Okafur, Ariza, Jan, possibly some other parts, and draft well with the picks we have and end up with. we will come out with a net gain in talent and youth.

I am not saying Wall is bad, I am saying if we trade while all there value is as high as it can be, we will undoubtedly end up with a massive return that we will not get if we let the current roaster play out.

That and we could very well get a GM in here that sees the problems with the current roaster and decides to make huge changes while he can get a return out of it,

Our teams problem has always been holding on to mediocrity to keep from being bad,and it has never worked out well for long, its time to strive for greatness not goodness.

[Dat2U]

I want the best player, not the best package. Even if were overpaying for Wall (if he gets the max that means he's shown a lot of improvement because right now he's not getting it), if it's a 4 yr deal he's only going to be 27/28 when that deal ends. If he's one of the better PGs in the league if not quite a star then you could do a lot worse.

Even at his TO prone, brick laying worst he's made this team watchable. You can credit Webster, Beal & Okafor all you want but realize how inconsistent they were before Wall came back. I remember when Okafor's TS% was in the .450 range. I remember when Beal looked completely overwhelmed trying to create shots for himself. I remember for every good game Webster had there would be one or two where he would totally disappear.

[jivelikenice]

CCJ we both know Wall was injured this off season and missed half of the season. It's not fair to judge any player under those circumstances. Look at HOF players like Dirk and how poorly he is playing this year. It's not easy for any NBA player to miss half of the season then have a career year.

Wall was healthy in the offseason. He didn't hurt his knee until just before the preseason. It's not like he was sitting out all summer rehabbing after surgery. He was working on his game.

I"m a little leery of the constant excuses for Wall. Before his rookie year, the excuse was he didn't understand how hard he needed to work. Before his 2nd year, the excuse was the lockout. Before his third year, the excuse is an injury even though he had about 4 months after the season ended and before his injury.

This is his third season. He hasn't shown any significant improvement since his first. How much do guards typically improve beyond their 3rd season? I think it's time to start considering that there won't be a dramatic turnaround. What we see is what we get. He'll improve incrementally, but not all that much. That means he is a solid player, but not an elite one. Nobody is saying we should arbitrarily dump Wall, but if we can trade him for a quality starter plus a high pick, it's definitely worth considering. Fish's idea of trading him for Lowry plus Valanciunas makes sense to me. Lowry is just as good as Wall right now, if not a bit better. He is 26 years old so should remain good for another 5 years or so. If we also add Valanciunas, who would essentially be Okafor's young replacement, that's a tempting offer.

Nate, who needs to make excuses. We were epically bad without him and are above .500 with him. Im really surprised that you don't think 3 months of inactivity wouldn't offset any improvements he made in the offseason. When you're working on a new skill or improving a weakness and an injury doesnt allow you to continue to build that muscle memory, how would that not have a direct impact? Then when he did get healthy, he had to get back n condition, work off rust, and acclimate himself to teammates he has never played with in roughly two weeks of practices between games. No TC....

The lockout had an impact, but I don't think anyone excuses him....he just went about it the wrong way.

Chemistry and continuity....that's what this team needs. There's no reason for unnecessary roster turnover and potentially negatively impacting Beal's development....

[nate33]

Giving up on a 22 year old point guard that oozes potential is something I would expect out of Ernie, not some of the brighter posters on this forum.

2 weeks ago he was being hailed as the next Gary Payton, and now he struggles for 2 games and every trade scenario for him is being concocted. Talk about overreacting.

I don't understand why people talk about my willingness to trade Wall as if it's a willingness to dump Wall. I would only trade Wall for value. My theory is his trade value is likely to be higher than his actual potential. A lot of people still view him as a potential superstar which should boost his trade value, yet I think it's pretty likely that his ceiling is merely "good starter". What's so bad about trading a good starter if we can get another good starter plus a lotto pick?

He can't be traded until this summer so there's really not much point discussing this in depth right now. Obviously, if he picks it up and plays much better over the rest of the season, then my opinion might change. All I'm saying is that if Wall finishes the year playing roughly like he has so far, then my expectations for him are going to drop considerably. Very few guards make substantial improvements after 3 full seasons in the league. I don't think Wall is an exception. What you see is what you get. Wall might be pretty close to his ceiling.

There's also all the contract ramifications that fishercob mentioned a few posts ago.

[nate33]

Nate, who needs to make excuses. We were epically bad without him and are above .500 with him. Im really surprised that you don't think 3 months of inactivity wouldn't offset any improvements he made in the offseason. When you're working on a new skill or improving a weakness and an injury doesnt allow you to continue to build that muscle memory, how would that not have a direct impact? Then when he did get healthy, he had to get back n condition, work off rust, and acclimate himself to teammates he has never played with in roughly two weeks of practices between games. No TC....

I'm not convinced that the turnaround is because Wall is such an exceptional player. I think it had a lot more to do with Beal finding his groove (which happened before Wall returned) and the fact that Wall is significantly better than the dreck we had at PG before he came back. Don't forget that Price and Ariza were also hurt and came back about the same time as Wall did. So we replaced a scrub (Temple) with a solid starter (Wall). We replaced a scrub (pre-January Beal) with a near all-star caliber SG (post-January Beal), and we replaced a scrub (Chris Singleton) with a starting caliber SF (Ariza). And we replaced a scrub (Mack) with a slightly better scrub (Price) who happened to have the best month of his career in January. That's 4 upgrades to our roster all in the same week, two significantly better starters and two significantly better backups. It wasn't Wall alone.

[hands11]

Nate, who needs to make excuses. We were epically bad without him and are above .500 with him. Im really surprised that you don't think 3 months of inactivity wouldn't offset any improvements he made in the offseason. When you're working on a new skill or improving a weakness and an injury doesnt allow you to continue to build that muscle memory, how would that not have a direct impact? Then when he did get healthy, he had to get back n condition, work off rust, and acclimate himself to teammates he has never played with in roughly two weeks of practices between games. No TC....

I'm not convinced that the turnaround is because Wall is such an exceptional player. I think it had a lot more to do with Beal finding his groove (which happened before Wall returned) and the fact that Wall is significantly better than the dreck we had at PG before he came back. Don't forget that Price and Ariza were also hurt and came back about the same time as Wall did. So we replaced a scrub (Temple) with a solid starter (Wall). We replaced a scrub (pre-January Beal) with a near all-star caliber SG (post-January Beal), and we replaced a scrub (Chris Singleton) with a starting caliber SF (Ariza). And we replaced a scrub (Mack) with a slightly better scrub (Price) who happened to have the best month of his career in January. That's 4 upgrades to our roster all in the same week, two significantly better starters and two significantly better backups. It wasn't Wall alone.

Why do people keep forgetting this. I can understand the press over looking this but everyone hear should know the difference.

Sadly, there will never be a pure before and after wall comparison that can be done with this roster. To much changed all at once. You even left out Nene getting more healthy. Thats kind of a big thing.

[fishercob]

I want the best player, not the best package. Even if were overpaying for Wall (if he gets the max that means he's shown a lot of improvement because right now he's not getting it), if it's a 4 yr deal he's only going to be 27/28 when that deal ends. If he's one of the better PGs in the league if not quite a star then you could do a lot worse.

Even at his TO prone, brick laying worst he's made this team watchable. You can credit Webster, Beal & Okafor all you want but realize how inconsistent they were before Wall came back. I remember when Okafor's TS% was in the .450 range. I remember when Beal looked completely overwhelmed trying to create shots for himself. I remember for every good game Webster had there would be one or two where he would totally disappear.

Who hacked your account? This is the most anti-Dat post I've seen in some time.

You gloss over the prospect of overpaying Wall as if it would only happen under ideal circumstances: if we're overpaying him, he must be really good. Have you forgotten who is running this team? My distinct fear is that Wall gets a max extension based on the player he is today because the Wizards have bought into their own narrative about him being a #1 overall pick and a franchise savior. That type of deal would be just as damaging as any one of the bad deals Ernie has agreed to over the past decade.

And I'm really surprised you'd invoke the "watchability" standard. It's almost a synonym for mediocrity, which you've been a strident opponent of for years. Make no mistake about it: if Wall remains a Wizard, he must improve drastically for the Wizards to reach contender status. We'll simply have too much in the way of resources tied up in him with too many big holes to fill going forward (unless he agrees to a significantly smaller extension than any #1 pick in years).

So like Nate, I have no desire at all to dump Wall. But given the risk proposition that he brings, I'd certainly entertain offers that could make us better going forward.

[Ruzious]

It is a bit odd that Wall's return coincided with Webster - in his 7th season - suddenly becoming one of the NBA's best 3 point shooters and being a far more efficient scorer than he's ever been before, Beal evolving from an overwhelmed starter to an uber confident 19 year old star in the making, and Okafor all of a sudden becoming a double/double machine in 27 minutes a game. As was said, part of it was how bad the previous crew of PG's were, but it's startling - if not sustainable. I would not actively shop Wall any more than any other player, but if he is traded - I think you need to look at what Wall brought to the table and get a PG who can duplicate that. Someone mentioned Lowry. I think he'd be an interesting choice - as pure speculation.

[nate33]

I just want to point out that Webster has shot the lights out all year, with or without Wall, and there continues to be no noticeable difference in his shooting efficiency whether he's on the floor with Wall or not. And Beal broke out on January 1st, 5 games before Wall's return, and maintained a high level of play for the next 7 games after that when Wall was playing just 20 minutes a game, mostly with the 2nd unit. I don't think the cause-and-effect is quite so clear.

[Nivek]

It is a bit odd that Wall's return coincided with Webster - in his 7th season - suddenly becoming one of the NBA's best 3 point shooters and being a far more efficient scorer than he's ever been before,

Since Wall's return, Webster has shot the ball even better when Wall's been on the bench. Efg with Wall on the floor: .642; when Wall's been out of the game: .711. He's better from 3pt range with Wall out of the game as well. His shooting has improved abruptly. When I look at his game log, the uptick begins in that OKC game -- when Price came back. Wall came back the following game, though.

Beal evolving from an overwhelmed starter to an uber confident 19 year old star in the making,

Beal's transformation also seemed to occur abruptly, but it looks like the change happened January 1 -- Wall returned January 12.

Okafor all of a sudden becoming a double/double machine in 27 minutes a game.

Okafor churning out double-doubles appears to have started in late December.

As was said, part of it was how bad the previous crew of PG's were, but it's startling - if not sustainable. I would not actively shop Wall any more than any other player, but if he is traded - I think you need to look at what Wall brought to the table and get a PG who can duplicate that. Someone mentioned Lowry. I think he'd be an interesting choice - as pure speculation.

My point is not to knock Wall -- he has helped (I wrote a piece for my blog last week about how he helps). But, when we're talking cause and effect, there were other things happening. Price came back at the same time, for example, and played at a borderline All-Star level for a couple weeks while Wall was coming off the bench. Beal appears to have "gotten it" at the start of January. It's like he got that Rookie of the Month award for December, and decided to make sure he deserved the next one. Saying he's better because of Wall...it could be, but it also might be an independent development.

All that said, I agree with your conclusion. I wouldn't actively shop Wall either, but I'd certainly listen to offers. He still has the makings of a top-flight PG -- if he improves.

[payitforward]

...I wouldn't actively shop Wall either, but I'd certainly listen to offers. He still has the makings of a top-flight PG -- if he improves.

You might be right, but I don't see that fact as a reason not to trade him, or even not to shop him. To me, the only way to decide whether to trade player A or not to trade him is on the basis of what comes back. If you get more than you give, then whoever the player is -- make the trade.

So I'd trade Wall or anyone else on the team if we got back "more." And, yes, I'd have traded the pick that got us Beal in return for Harden. When someone is in a position where they have to make a trade, as OKC was, take advantage of their problem.

[Ruzious]

I just want to point out that Webster has shot the lights out all year, with or without Wall, and there continues to be no noticeable difference in his shooting efficiency whether he's on the floor with Wall or not. And Beal broke out on January 1st, 5 games before Wall's return, and maintained a high level of play for the next 7 games after that when Wall was playing just 20 minutes a game, mostly with the 2nd unit. I don't think the cause-and-effect is quite so clear.

Good points by you and Kev, but I don't think anyone - other than you - and including NBA opponents - took Webster seriously when he was scoring 9 points a game in the first 3 months of the season - not to mention the first 6 years of his NBA career. Now that he's making 2.8 out of 5.0 3's per game this month, he's a player to account for - and his efficiency numbers are definitely better than they were earlier in the season. Again, maybe Wall's not the reason, and his return wasn't the exact day that players decided to play, but it'd be nice to get a reason why these changes happened and if they are sustainable.

[Nivek]

payitforward: We're on the same page with Wall. Like you, I'd trade anyone if I thought it made the Wizards better. I would've made a deal based on Beal for Harden (depending on what the "other stuff" in the deal was going to be). I don't think the Wizards are at a point where they need to be actively coming up with a trade involving Wall...yet. I think the next training camp is going to be telling. If he comes back with the same stuff -- rampant turnovers and no jumper to speak of -- then it'll be time. But, I'd be listening to offers during the offseason.

[nate33]

I just want to point out that Webster has shot the lights out all year, with or without Wall, and there continues to be no noticeable difference in his shooting efficiency whether he's on the floor with Wall or not. And Beal broke out on January 1st, 5 games before Wall's return, and maintained a high level of play for the next 7 games after that when Wall was playing just 20 minutes a game, mostly with the 2nd unit. I don't think the cause-and-effect is quite so clear.

Good points by you and Kev, but I don't think anyone - other than you - and including NBA opponents - took Webster seriously when he was scoring 9 points a game in the first 3 months of the season - not to mention the first 6 years of his NBA career. Now that he's making 2.8 out of 5.0 3's per game this month, he's a player to account for - and his efficiency numbers are definitely better than they were earlier in the season. Again, maybe Wall's not the reason, and his return wasn't the exact day that players decided to play, but it'd be nice to get a reason why these changes happened and if they are sustainable.

Ruzious, I think the uptick in his scoring is mostly due to him playing more minutes. Here are Webster's per-36 scoring averages by month:

Oct. 13.8
Nov. 14.4
Dec. 10.5
Jan. 15.8
Feb. 14.7

He had a rough month in December, which was probably due to Ariza's absence forcing him to devote more energy to defense. His scoring rate in January and February is about the same as it was in October and November.

[nate33]

I think the next training camp is going to be telling. If he comes back with the same stuff -- rampant turnovers and no jumper to speak of -- then it'll be time. But, I'd be listening to offers during the offseason.

The problem is that if we wait until January or so of next year to conclude that Wall isn't going to turn the corner, the rest of the league will have had time to draw the same conclusion and his value will drop. I think the offseason is key. The Wizards need to check in on his development a lot, and if that jumper isn't improving, they should get on the phone and start exploring trades.

[Rafael122]

Turnovers can be fixed for sure, but why are we willing to give up so quickly on Wall because his jumper is inconsistent? Can someone run the numbers on Lebron and Rondo? Those two guys stick out when it came to their jump shots, it was inconsistent to start off. Rondo, before he got hurt, looked like he developed a jump shot. Wall is only what....22? He's not even in his prime?