Official Trade Thread XXII (2/6/13 - 4/1/13)

Nivek · Post #901 » by **Nivek** » Mon Feb 25, 2013 4:26 pm

I agree nate. That's basically what I meant by referencing training camp. I don't think they can wait until games start in Wall's 4th season or they risk letting his value drop. But, I think they still need to show some patience and give him some time to improve. Problem is: the moment they call someone and say, we want Player X or Asset Y, and we're willing to trade Wall, the other side is going to think something's up.

DCZards · Post #902 » by **DCZards** » Mon Feb 25, 2013 4:33 pm

I wouldn't trade Wall at this point unless the Zards got a star player (and not just a quality starter) in return. John has too much upside too give up on just yet. But I'd listen to offers.

However, I wouldn't "actively shop" Wall because putting out the word that you're looking to trade Wall would be harmful to team chemistry. I don't think either John or the team needs to hear that at this point. That time may come...but it's not now, imo.

Nivek · Post #903 » by **Nivek** » Mon Feb 25, 2013 4:39 pm

Rafael122 wrote:Turnovers can be fixed for sure, but why are we willing to give up so quickly on Wall because his jumper is inconsistent? Can someone run the numbers on Lebron and Rondo? Those two guys stick out when it came to their jump shots, it was inconsistent to start off. Rondo, before he got hurt, looked like he developed a jump shot. Wall is only what....22? He's not even in his prime?

Rondo's rookie season was about the same as Wall's when it came to shooting jumpers (Rondo: .323 on jumpers; Wall: .327). The next season, Rondo shot .417 to Wall's .288. Year three -- Rondo: .363; Wall: .315. After that, Rondo settled shooting 37-37% (efg) on jumpers until this season where he shot .422.

Lebron has never had a season where he shot jumpers as badly as Wall's best season. Lebron's worst jumper shooting season was his rookie year -- .356. He sorta hovered in the 38-40% range until his 6th season when he bumped it up to 43-45%. This year, he's shooting .498 on jumpers, which is superb.

Wall's jumper isn't "inconsistent," it's bad.

Post #904 » by **Ruzious** » Mon Feb 25, 2013 4:55 pm

nate33 wrote:
Ruzious wrote:
nate33 wrote:I just want to point out that Webster has shot the lights out all year, with or without Wall, and there continues to be no noticeable difference in his shooting efficiency whether he's on the floor with Wall or not. And Beal broke out on January 1st, 5 games before Wall's return, and maintained a high level of play for the next 7 games after that when Wall was playing just 20 minutes a game, mostly with the 2nd unit. I don't think the cause-and-effect is quite so clear.

Good points by you and Kev, but I don't think anyone - other than you - and including NBA opponents - took Webster seriously when he was scoring 9 points a game in the first 3 months of the season - not to mention the first 6 years of his NBA career. Now that he's making 2.8 out of 5.0 3's per game this month, he's a player to account for - and his efficiency numbers are definitely better than they were earlier in the season. Again, maybe Wall's not the reason, and his return wasn't the exact day that players decided to play, but it'd be nice to get a reason why these changes happened and if they are sustainable.

Ruzious, I think the uptick in his scoring is mostly due to him playing more minutes. Here are Webster's per-36 scoring averages by month:

Oct. 13.8
Nov. 14.4
Dec. 10.5
Jan. 15.8
Feb. 14.7

He had a rough month in December, which was probably due to Ariza's absence forcing him to devote more energy to defense. His scoring rate in January and February is about the same as it was in October and November.

He scored what he scored, and that's fine, but his TS% now is 62 and his eFG% is 57. There's no chance those numbers were that high through December. He's never shot like that before. The question is - is it sustainable.

Post #905 » by **Rafael122** » Mon Feb 25, 2013 5:01 pm

Nivek wrote:
Rafael122 wrote:Turnovers can be fixed for sure, but why are we willing to give up so quickly on Wall because his jumper is inconsistent? Can someone run the numbers on Lebron and Rondo? Those two guys stick out when it came to their jump shots, it was inconsistent to start off. Rondo, before he got hurt, looked like he developed a jump shot. Wall is only what....22? He's not even in his prime?

Rondo's rookie season was about the same as Wall's when it came to shooting jumpers (Rondo: .323 on jumpers; Wall: .327). The next season, Rondo shot .417 to Wall's .288. Year three -- Rondo: .363; Wall: .315. After that, Rondo settled shooting 37-37% (efg) on jumpers until this season where he shot .422.

Lebron has never had a season where he shot jumpers as badly as Wall's best season. Lebron's worst jumper shooting season was his rookie year -- .356. He sorta hovered in the 38-40% range until his 6th season when he bumped it up to 43-45%. This year, he's shooting .498 on jumpers, which is superb.

Wall's jumper isn't "inconsistent," it's bad.

But bad enough to be traded or at least listen to offers? He's not a franchise player, he's probably not going to be, but he's a top 15 point guard when healthy, arguably.

tontoz · Post #906 » by **tontoz** » Mon Feb 25, 2013 5:03 pm

I was just looking at Webster's splits and he has shot 40% or better from 3 each month, a pretty impressive display of consistency. His 56% mark this month is obviously the standout but he has been shooting well from the beginning.

jivelikenice · Post #907 » by **jivelikenice** » Mon Feb 25, 2013 5:15 pm

Nobody is saying he should be untouchable, but why break up chemsitry that's building between him and Beal and bring about unecessary roster turnover? If a team wants to give us a clear upgrade, I'm in.....But most of the offers I've seen tossed around include getting a player who's not an upgrade and a draft pick. How is that a sure upgrade or anything better than just rolling the dice?

Nivek · Post #908 » by **Nivek** » Mon Feb 25, 2013 5:23 pm

Rafael122 wrote:
Nivek wrote:
Rafael122 wrote:Turnovers can be fixed for sure, but why are we willing to give up so quickly on Wall because his jumper is inconsistent? Can someone run the numbers on Lebron and Rondo? Those two guys stick out when it came to their jump shots, it was inconsistent to start off. Rondo, before he got hurt, looked like he developed a jump shot. Wall is only what....22? He's not even in his prime?

Rondo's rookie season was about the same as Wall's when it came to shooting jumpers (Rondo: .323 on jumpers; Wall: .327). The next season, Rondo shot .417 to Wall's .288. Year three -- Rondo: .363; Wall: .315. After that, Rondo settled shooting 37-37% (efg) on jumpers until this season where he shot .422.

Lebron has never had a season where he shot jumpers as badly as Wall's best season. Lebron's worst jumper shooting season was his rookie year -- .356. He sorta hovered in the 38-40% range until his 6th season when he bumped it up to 43-45%. This year, he's shooting .498 on jumpers, which is superb.

Wall's jumper isn't "inconsistent," it's bad.

But bad enough to be traded or at least listen to offers? He's not a franchise player, he's probably not going to be, but he's a top 15 point guard when healthy, arguably.

Yes, bad enough to trade him and/or listen to offers. Especially when also considering the rampant turnovers.

In my overall rating system, which accounts for defense, Wall rates well below average so far this season. He was about average last season. He was below average as a rookie. I don't consider him a top 15 PG when healthy. In terms of physical tools, he's top 2 or 3. But his game still isn't good enough.

Nivek · Post #909 » by **Nivek** » Mon Feb 25, 2013 5:33 pm

jivelikenice wrote:Nobody is saying he should be untouchable, but why break up chemsitry that's building between him and Beal and bring about unecessary roster turnover? If a team wants to give us a clear upgrade, I'm in.....But most of the offers I've seen tossed around include getting a player who's not an upgrade and a draft pick. How is that a sure upgrade or anything better than just rolling the dice?

Beal is a good player. His chemistry with another good player is likely to be fine because he's a good guy, a smart player, and he has skills. Wall isn't some irreplaceable superstar. He's playing at a below-average level.

Plus, roster turnovers is basically built in with the roster they've assembled. The frontcourt is aging, the youngsters -- except for Beal -- have given no sign of becoming quality NBA players. The primary arguments for keeping Wall around is "chemistry" and the fact that he was a #1 overall pick. I can kinda-sorta agree with the chemistry argument, but I think it's something that would develop quickly between Beal and another PG. The #1 pick is a sunk cost at this point. Now it's a question of what's of greater value: what Wall might become, or Something Else?

I'm not ready to give up on Wall by any stretch. He has a world of ability. But, ability is not synonymous with production. He's in his third season now, and it's worrisome that the jumper is still bad and the turnovers still rampant (higher than ever, actually). These are the same flaws evident in his game coming out of college. That he's not showing improvement in these areas is a concern for me. Which is why I'd be willing to listen to teams talking about Something Else.

Severn Hoos · Post #910 » by **Severn Hoos** » Mon Feb 25, 2013 5:38 pm

Nivek wrote:Wall's jumper isn't "inconsistent," it's bad.

On the contrary, it's quite consistent. And that's the problem.

nuposse04 · Post #911 » by **nuposse04** » Mon Feb 25, 2013 5:56 pm

http://basketball.realgm.com/wiretap/22 ... greed-Upon

Isn't butler expiring? **** Sterling.

ah nvm he isn't I think http://www.spotrac.com/nba/los-angeles- ... on-butler/

Still, **** Sterling.

GhostsOfGil · Post #912 » by **GhostsOfGil** » Mon Feb 25, 2013 6:06 pm

nuposse04 wrote:http://basketball.realgm.com/wiretap/226375/Clippers-Wizards-Had-Butler-For-Ariza-Trade-Agreed-Upon

Isn't butler expiring? **** Sterling.

ah nvm he isn't I think http://www.spotrac.com/nba/los-angeles- ... on-butler/

Still, **** Sterling.

The fact that Ernie was even considering this is mind blowing...

MikeTheKid · Post #913 » by **MikeTheKid** » Mon Feb 25, 2013 6:09 pm

GhostsOfGil wrote:
nuposse04 wrote:http://basketball.realgm.com/wiretap/226375/Clippers-Wizards-Had-Butler-For-Ariza-Trade-Agreed-Upon

Isn't butler expiring? **** Sterling.

ah nvm he isn't I think http://www.spotrac.com/nba/los-angeles- ... on-butler/

Still, **** Sterling.

The fact that Ernie was even considering this is mind blowing...

nuposse04 · Post #914 » by **nuposse04** » Mon Feb 25, 2013 6:09 pm

Butler is shooting well, but he's pretty **** old. Plus he actually makes more. The pro's negate the cons. Seems like making a move for the sake of making a move.

*I woulda done it in a heartbeat if Caron was expiring

jivelikenice · Post #915 » by **jivelikenice** » Mon Feb 25, 2013 6:17 pm

Yeah...don't get why they would take Butler for Ariza is Butler isn't expiring. I think you can get a better deal for Ariza in the offseason or at the deadline with his expiring deal.

keynote · Post #916 » by **keynote** » Mon Feb 25, 2013 6:21 pm

Well, WAS can't recruit a player of Butler's caliber in free agency. So, if we had traded Ariza for him, it'd have been like getting the FA we wanted for free. Only not.

jivelikenice · Post #917 » by **jivelikenice** » Mon Feb 25, 2013 6:23 pm

Butler doesn't have a ton left in the tank. I'd take Ariza over him. I guess the FO wanted Butler an another leader in the lockeroom and someone who could score in the halfcourt.....

Upper Decker · Post #918 » by **Upper Decker** » Mon Feb 25, 2013 6:28 pm

God help us all. Caron freaking Butler. The guys been awful since 2007. It's amazing that Sterling wanted to keep him for "Chemistry" because eveyrthing I've heard is that he's been rather petulant about his playing time. I'm like, HELLO, CARON. Wake up! Your back up is better than you and so is your back up's back up. The fact that he get's burn on that team amazes me, but whatever.

This is such a sad move by a pathetic GM. His rational..."Boy, these fans hate me, maybe I should bring someone back to remind them of the glory days. Wonder what Sterling would want for Tough Juice?" It's like Susan O'Malley is running this insane asylum again. Let's make moves for PR purposes. Be on the lookout for a Juan Dixon resigning! It'll really inspire the UMD fan's and bring them back, you know, for old time sake. I wonder what Lonny Baxter and Byron Mouton are up to these days. Anyone up for a couple 10-days contacts?

MikeTheKid · Post #919 » by **MikeTheKid** » Mon Feb 25, 2013 6:33 pm

^^^^*Patiently awaiting the 10 day contracts of Steve Francis and DJ Strawberry

Upper Decker · Post #920 » by **Upper Decker** » Mon Feb 25, 2013 7:03 pm

Man, as I think about this trade I'm starting to get ticked at Sterling. Think about how much smoother the offense would be by sending Webster to the bench and inserting Prune Juice into the starting 5...Imagine this, Wall hits Butler at the wing where he puts up his patented three jab steps, two pump fakes, step back jumper. Two words--offensive continuity. EG, with his stroke of genious solves all the half court issues with one trade. Curse you Sterling!