Otto Porter

[tontoz]

Porter is shooting 46% from 10-22 feet. I am not concerned about his jumper.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/pla ... rder_by=fg

He has a low turnover rate and a respectable assist rate. His rebound rate is the same as Ariza.

I think it is very unlikely that he will be a bust. However i also have my doubts about him being an impact player. His lack of athleticism hurts him taking it to the basket and on D.

[nate33]

I don't disagree he could be decent for that draft. It was a putrid draft. Found it more useful to project possible upside by looking at comparables since 1985. Just not a pretty list.

It's really an unfair screen to put together. The problem is that, in your narrowly defined criteria, you pick games played over 50 but points under 273 and rebounds under 164. That arbitrarily narrows your list to just players who played a total of roughly 51-75 game. Anybody who played more than that by virtue of simply entering the league at a younger age is likely to hit the points or rebounds total by accident and thus fail your criteria.

I tried it this way. Instead of over 50 games but under 273 points and 164 rebounds, I did a screen for player who played more than 50 games but averaged less than 5.2 points per game and 3.2 rebounds per game. Here's what I came up with:
http://bkref.com/tiny/vhtxW


It's not a great list, but there are some respectable names including Humphries, Wallace and Bass.

[Induveca]

I don't disagree he could be decent for that draft. It was a putrid draft. Found it more useful to project possible upside by looking at comparables since 1985. Just not a pretty list.

It's really an unfair screen to put together. The problem is that, in your narrowly defined criteria, you pick games played over 50 but points under 273 and rebounds under 164. That arbitrarily narrows your list to just players who played a total of roughly 51-75 game. Anybody who played more than that by virtue of simply entering the league at a younger age is likely to hit the points or rebounds total by accident and thus fail your criteria.

I tried it this way. Instead of over 50 games but under 273 points and 164 rebounds, I did a screen for player who played more than 50 games but averaged less than 5.2 points per game and 3.2 rebounds per game. Here's what I came up with:
http://bkref.com/tiny/vhtxW


It's not a great list, but there are some respectable names including Humphries, Wallace and Bass.

Fair enough there was an error in the formula though we had both used (I think) first to third season. If you notice Humphries played his first two years in Utah, your list had him in Toronto.

Here is a corrected version.

http://bkref.com/tiny/Sb1zZ

Regardless, I think both lists point to a high likelihood of bust status. I was hoping there was an option for <= pick 6. I suspect he'd be firmly at the bottom of that list.

Edit: there is something buggy with their queries. It seems it won't count a second season for Porter as he hasn't completed his second season. Not a bug, but doesn't seem to do "number of games" only sums season totals. Ahh well still a decent enough comp he still ranks close to the top of a pretty unimpressive list. I agree PPG/RPG was a better choice.

[Kanyewest]

I changed the filters from 5 to 7 ppg and then there were some impressive guys like Nicolas Batum (6.9 ppg) and Hedo Turkoglu (5.3 ppg). The common thread with those guys and Porter is that they were on 50+ win teams- at least that Washington is on pace to do doing at this point.

[Induveca]

I changed the filters from 5 to 7 ppg and then there were some impressive guys like Nicolas Batum (6.9 ppg) and Hedo Turkoglu (5.3 ppg). The common thread with those guys and Porter is that they were on 50+ win teams- at least that Washington is on pace to do doing at this point.

Increase rebounds by 30 percent or so as well and you get Zach Randolph.

Batum is an outlier in that query, he started 101/116 games his first two years. No one else on the list comes close.

[Kanyewest]

I changed the filters from 5 to 7 ppg and then there were some impressive guys like Nicolas Batum (6.9 ppg) and Hedo Turkoglu (5.3 ppg). The common thread with those guys and Porter is that they were on 50+ win teams- at least that Washington is on pace to do doing at this point.

Increase rebounds by 30 percent or so as well and you get Zach Randolph.

Batum is an outlier in that query, he started 101/116 games his first two years. No one else on the list comes close.

True Batum is on the further end of the spectrum but not as much as 30% given that Batum saw more playing time. In a per 36 mpg sense, Batum production is only 6.7% more than Porter.

I'm not sure I would take conclusive evidence though from the data because Pierce/Butler/Beal probably presented a tougher route to playing time than Batum- who still had to beat out talented players like Roy/Fernandez/Webster. But yeah, Porter has a lot to prove especially given the way he's played over the last few games.

[payitforward]

I like Porter's game a lot; I bet he's going to be a terrific pro. Noel might well be better, but that's hindsight.

Noel was injured, and none of us know how likely/unlikely it was that he'd recover. Inasmuch as he *did* recover, he's looking like what everyone thought he'd be if he recovered.

Now, if there was someone other than Noel whom you thought back then that we should pick instead of Porter, then you have a legitimate gripe. Make sense?

Whether or not, it's definitely looking like we all (and the league) underestimated Adams, Muhammed & Adetokunbo. No one in the top 10 that year (except maybe Noel) is looking like as good a player. Might add Carter-Williams and Olynyk to that list!

Vic Oladipo and Alex Len are studs.

...I like Otto but we should have drafted Noel or Len. I understand both had injury concerns surrounding them, so this mostly hindsight but still. Len in particular is massive with long arms and quite mobile, With Gortat showing that he's on a steady decline...

Gortat isn't "showing that he's on a steady decline." Don't know what you're talking about there. Which of his numbers are declining steadily? Do tell....

In any case, that's irrelevant. If we picked Porter, it was because we thought it likely that he'd be a better player than the other two (factoring in injury concerns). It might turn out that Noel and/or Len are better, but the jury ain't in -- how could it be?

[Illmatic12]

I like Porter's game a lot; I bet he's going to be a terrific pro. Noel might well be better, but that's hindsight.

Noel was injured, and none of us know how likely/unlikely it was that he'd recover. Inasmuch as he *did* recover, he's looking like what everyone thought he'd be if he recovered.

Now, if there was someone other than Noel whom you thought back then that we should pick instead of Porter, then you have a legitimate gripe. Make sense?

Whether or not, it's definitely looking like we all (and the league) underestimated Adams, Muhammed & Adetokunbo. No one in the top 10 that year (except maybe Noel) is looking like as good a player. Might add Carter-Williams and Olynyk to that list!

Vic Oladipo and Alex Len are studs.

...I like Otto but we should have drafted Noel or Len. I understand both had injury concerns surrounding them, so this mostly hindsight but still. Len in particular is massive with long arms and quite mobile, With Gortat showing that he's on a steady decline...

Gortat isn't "showing that he's on a steady decline." Don't know what you're talking about there. Which of his numbers are declining steadily? Do tell....

In any case, that's irrelevant. If we picked Porter, it was because we thought it likely that he'd be a better player than the other two (factoring in injury concerns). It might turn out that Noel and/or Len are better, but the jury ain't in -- how could it be?

Maybe just eye test, but looks to me that Gortat's defensive intensity has fallen off. That's always the first thing to go, he looks lazy on way too many possessions where he could be contesting or getting in the way of an opponent. Nene has actually been carrying us on the defensive end and deserves more credit.

[payitforward]

...

I'm just not seeing it with Porter. Too many of the same "intangible claims" on the board. People saying Porter moves great without the ball, he just "gets it" etc. I don't see it. Many here thought Vesely could become a defensive stopper, he had a "nose for the ball" Etc. I think everyone knows year 3 after Kwame/Vesely/Singleton etc etc you know what you have in a guy.

I'm holding out hope but by January next year if his numbers remain the same, Porter will be lucky if the Wiz pick up his 4th year.

And here I thought you were a rationalist. Porter is playing quite well. Nor is it a matter of intangibles -- except insofar as they contribute to the perfectly tangible elements of his productivity.

Porter's shooting just over 50% on 2-point attempts. He's shooting 31.5% on 3-point attempts (a small sample, but that needs to improve; I can't see why it won't). He doesn't foul much or TO much. He blocks and steals well. He's rebounding ok as well.

Overall, Porter is already a somewhat above average NBA SF on a minute-by-minute productivity basis. Since they run absolutely nothing for him on offense, he rarely gets open shot opportunities.

I think he's doing great this year. In fact, on the year (not a cherry-picked outstanding game) he's doing better as an SF than Noel is as a C. That's not a critique of Noel; I think he's going to be terrific. I think Porter is going to be terrific too.

[dckingsfan]

He looked pretty good today

[Illmatic12]

Yeah he was quite active. Would have been even better if he had strength to finish a few drives right at the rim.

He needs to seriously bulk up between now and next season, but I have faith that he will be a solid contributor when given starter minutes.

[The Consiglieri]

All these people come out now and say they wanted Nerlens Noel but at the time of the draft noone was willing to stick their neck out and say it.

I certainly was. I certainly have been saying for years that we need a young big, and have been roundly attacked for backing: Marc Gasol (wanted to buy a pick to get him); Drummond; Gobert (the draft page here was calling him the biggest bust of the draft, I wanted to buy picks to get him); and yes Noel. Noel is exactly the type of player we need to pair with Durant.

Porter will be better than he is playing. But, we need a foundational piece much more. Porter, Beal, Serphin and Gortat are all good pieces that we can package in some way to get a great piece. And we need another great piece.

I have no idea where Jangles got that from. At the time of the '12 draft, the fan base was utterly apoplectic that Noel wasn't the pick. Apoplectic. I'll grant that there were some Cody Zeller backers, some fans of Oladipo, and a few others, but the main debate was between Noel, with the injury, or Porter for about 80% of the board, and I, and many, many, many others were irate about the decision that was made. It was utterly moronic in my view regardless of how it played out. You just don't take players with that low of a ceiling with that high of a pick EVER, unless there's noone else with a high ceiling, and there were several players that were known to have a higher ceiling, Noel, the most highly thought of amongst them.

It was an idiotic decision then, and looked even worse last season, although Porter's play when given quality minutes this past offseason, suggests he just needs minutes to become a solid league average player (maybe better), which at least is a sign that he wouldn't be a bust, if we'd just simply put him on the floor.

Still absolutely barely awake, i have ZERO IDEA where jangles gets this perspective that it's revisionist thinking to say that Noel should have been the pick (or Len, or Carter Williams, or Adams, or Giannis etc) is complete and utter nonsense. Just scroll through the thread right around 740-815 pm on draft day from 2013. It's all right there. The Porter supporters, the outraged, holy ---- we can get NOEL! crew screaming with delight, then minutes later screaming with rage, than debating whether it should matter that several other teams proved to be morons as well (never understood why five perennial cellar dwellers passing on Noel, thus proves that passing on him was the right decision. Utterly fallacious reasoning,), it shouldn't.

It's all there in the thread, granted it takes a little digging, but at least by looking that up, you won't be either lying and misrepresenting, or simply ignorant of the truth.

[payitforward]

Sorry, but I don't buy either half of this compound statement.

Maybe just eye test, but looks to me that Gortat's defensive intensity has fallen off. That's always the first thing to go...

I don't think his "defensive intensity has fallen off." And anyway, that is certainly NOT "always the first thing to go." In fact, what you say about Nene...

Nene has actually been carrying us on the defensive end and deserves more credit.

...makes the 2d point for me. No way is Nene the player he was at his prime, not even close. But it's not his "defensive intensity", nor his defensive effectiveness (more important), that declined first or that have declined most.

[The Consiglieri]

All these people come out now and say they wanted Nerlens Noel but at the time of the draft noone was willing to stick their neck out and say it.

Okay: Consult this thread from page 29-30 forward and see the litany of posters who got this right, the posters, and GM who got it wrong, and the evidence that proves your point completely wanting (of course maybe you weren't here then?).

viewtopic.php?f=35&t=1258257&start=580

[The Consiglieri]

Noel has been garbage. If he were playing the way he is for us, 85% of the fan base would be calling him a bust. Actually there is no way he'd be playing for us, he'd be buried on the bench with no hope of ever displacing Gortat in the future. He has less workable offensive skill than Vesely did.

The hindsight pick is clearly Alex Len, but again he'd have had trouble stealing the starting job from Gortat. And with his injury history, Phoenix was a much better landing spot for him than we would have been.

I'm not sure if the hindsight pick is Len, but Noel has been pretty sub-par so far. Although it might work out for Noel if Embiid is a stud.

Len has done a great job, Giannis was the easily one of the best options, Noel is having a nice solid start to his career. Not sure how someone says he's awful, he's getting 8 points, 7 boards, and 1 and a half blocks in 30 minutes a game on a team completely bereft of talent that is deliberately tanking in his first games since being layed off basically January '13, two years ago.

Not sure what he'll become as the offense was always going to be a massive work in progress, but he's definitely a worthwhile weapon on the boards and defensive end with a lot of potential to grow.

It's a shame somebody didn't take Porter at 1 or 2, to help prevent us from being morons. Alas that was just a dream.

[payitforward]

All these people come out now and say they wanted Nerlens Noel but at the time of the draft noone was willing to stick their neck out and say it.

I certainly was. I certainly have been saying for years that we need a young big, and have been roundly attacked for backing: Marc Gasol (wanted to buy a pick to get him); Drummond; Gobert (the draft page here was calling him the biggest bust of the draft, I wanted to buy picks to get him); and yes Noel. Noel is exactly the type of player we need to pair with Durant.

Porter will be better than he is playing. But, we need a foundational piece much more. Porter, Beal, Serphin and Gortat are all good pieces that we can package in some way to get a great piece. And we need another great piece.

I have no idea where Jangles got that from. At the time of the '12 draft, the fan base was utterly apoplectic that Noel wasn't the pick. Apoplectic. I'll grant that there were some Cody Zeller backers, some fans of Oladipo, and a few others, but the main debate was between Noel, with the injury, or Porter for about 80% of the board, and I, and many, many, many others were irate about the decision that was made. It was utterly moronic in my view regardless of how it played out. You just don't take players with that low of a ceiling with that high of a pick EVER, unless there's noone else with a high ceiling, and there were several players that were known to have a higher ceiling, Noel, the most highly thought of amongst them.

It was an idiotic decision then, and looked even worse last season, although Porter's play when given quality minutes this past offseason, suggests he just needs minutes to become a solid league average player (maybe better), which at least is a sign that he wouldn't be a bust, if we'd just simply put him on the floor.

Still absolutely barely awake, i have ZERO IDEA where jangles gets this perspective that it's revisionist thinking to say that Noel should have been the pick (or Len, or Carter Williams, or Adams, or Giannis etc) is complete and utter nonsense. Just scroll through the thread right around 740-815 pm on draft day from 2013. It's all right there. The Porter supporters, the outraged, holy ---- we can get NOEL! crew screaming with delight, then minutes later screaming with rage, than debating whether it should matter that several other teams proved to be morons as well (never understood why five perennial cellar dwellers passing on Noel, thus proves that passing on him was the right decision. Utterly fallacious reasoning,), it shouldn't.

It's all there in the thread, granted it takes a little digging, but at least by looking that up, you won't be either lying and misrepresenting, or simply ignorant of the truth.

You're totally right. And I would have been happier too had we taken Noel. So, yeah, jangles is off.

But, there's a more important point here, and I think you are missing it. Tell me if you agree (or at least if you see what I mean):

Noel was projected to go #1 in the draft. Then his injury was revealed, and the fact of it was given some weight by GMs, so he fell a little. But the people here who wanted him anyway, who wanted to pay no attention to the injury, didn't give that injury any weight -- and, really, why should they? Fans have no skin in the game (me included: I'd have preferred to roll the dice). If he doesn't recover, what price does a fan pay? Nothing. So of course fans give the injury no weight.

But... if you run the picks w/o giving that injury any weight, then, sorry, Noel isn't available to us. Nor can you say "see, he recovered; obviously it was stupid to give the injury any weight." That's hindsight. What if he hadn't recovered?

Now, if back then you said "we should pick Alex Len; he'd be a better pick than Otto Porter," fine. No hindsight, and tho he was nicked up a bit really no injury issue either. Lets see who turns out to be the better player, Otto or Alex.

Note: that's what Hands wanted to do. He wanted Len, and if Len turns out to be a better NBA player than Porter, that'll be a feather in his cap.

But if you said "I want Noel; who cares about the injury," the fact that he's recovered doesn't make you right -- neither you nor I had any idea whatever how bad that injury was or what his recovery chances were.

[The Consiglieri]

Noel has been garbage. If he were playing the way he is for us, 85% of the fan base would be calling him a bust. Actually there is no way he'd be playing for us, he'd be buried on the bench with no hope of ever displacing Gortat in the future. He has less workable offensive skill than Vesely did.

The hindsight pick is clearly Alex Len, but again he'd have had trouble stealing the starting job from Gortat. And with his injury history, Phoenix was a much better landing spot for him than we would have been.

I think when it's all said and done, Porter will prove to be a good use of that pick.

But if we want to play the hindsight game, let's talk about Rudy Gobert. He's 22, on his way to being a better Tyson Chandler, and Utah traded cash and the 46th pick to get him.

We could have had him -- as could have the entire league. Given where he was picked, his contract is going to be one of the league's single most valuable for the next few years.

On my targets for our second rounder post from the '13 draft day thread I had:

#1 Tony Mitchell
#2 Rudy Gobert
#3 Giannis Adetoknobu
#4 Shabazz Muhhamad (could fall that far)
#5 GRJR

It's funny to think of how thoroughly I got some things wrong (hating Draymond Green, thinking Giannis was either a superstar or a wtf? failure, Tony Mitchell), and how many things i got right, like viewing Gobert, and Adetoknobu as 2 of the best 3 players ranked outside of the top 20. Nailed both, but then totally ---- the bed with the Tony Mitchell love (I'm always enamoured with players previously ranked high that fall like a rock, the previous year I loved PJIII for the same reason).

[The Consiglieri]

I like Porter's game a lot; I bet he's going to be a terrific pro. Noel might well be better, but that's hindsight.

Noel was injured, and none of us know how likely/unlikely it was that he'd recover. Inasmuch as he *did* recover, he's looking like what everyone thought he'd be if he recovered.

Now, if there was someone other than Noel whom you thought back then that we should pick instead of Porter, then you have a legitimate gripe. Make sense?

Whether or not, it's definitely looking like we all (and the league) underestimated Adams, Muhammed & Adetokunbo. No one in the top 10 that year (except maybe Noel) is looking like as good a player. Might add Carter-Williams and Olynyk to that list!

No it doesnt make sense. Noel had an ACL injury, not a foot injury, and ACL recovery these days is miles different than it was 15-25, 35 years ago. There was zero reason to justify taking Porter over Noel. Zero. The reason those top 5 teams passed was that they were run by incompetent F.O.'s with guys terrified they'd get ---- canned if they drafted a big man who went Greg Oden on them. They were drafting for their jobs, so went safe, and as a result, 3 out of 5 drafted busts or relative busts (so far), while a fourth got a good player that was rated #1 by most teams (oladipo), and a fifth speculated on a healthy big man with nearly as much upside as Noel, but more floor too in Len. We were one of the three stupid teams in the top 5, no doubt about it, period.

[The Consiglieri]

I like Porter's game a lot; I bet he's going to be a terrific pro. Noel might well be better, but that's hindsight.

Noel was injured, and none of us know how likely/unlikely it was that he'd recover. Inasmuch as he *did* recover, he's looking like what everyone thought he'd be if he recovered.

Now, if there was someone other than Noel whom you thought back then that we should pick instead of Porter, then you have a legitimate gripe. Make sense?

Whether or not, it's definitely looking like we all (and the league) underestimated Adams, Muhammed & Adetokunbo. No one in the top 10 that year (except maybe Noel) is looking like as good a player. Might add Carter-Williams and Olynyk to that list!

giannas
adams
gobert
adams
Shabazz
gorgui!!!

In the long run, I'm pretty confident that Porter will pan out to be better than Shabazz and Dieng, but the rest of those guys might all end up better. Gobert is a real game changer on defense, and I love Adams' potential.

Keeping hearing that Adams could be even better than people thought his ceiling would be back in '13 which is kind of crazy.

[nuposse04]

I was pro porter before Noel fell, I definitely wanted Noel once he fell, but some of what PIF says is right, it does weigh a lot more on ANY GM in selecting Noel if he was actually medically red flagged. Not to say Porter is physically where he needs to be, but he has made progress. He is a productive player this season, and should continue to get minutes. I still Noel should become the more impactful player when it is all said and done, but for now I'm enjoying the fruits of Porter

Also, I'd like to see Porter get more burn with the starters. Miller is a decent enough backup PG but someone like Wall ought to REALLY make things easier on porter. Miller has his limitations. As does Seraphin as a + screener.