Team/Player Stats Discussion

[Nivek]

Biggest thing I'd say are these words: Small Sample Size Theater. Over the course of the season, guys like Deandre Jordan, Courtney Lee, Jared Sullinger, Rudy Gay, Wes Matthews...are likely to fall in nearly any statistical that's worth a damn.

Wall is someone who could possibly remain in this general stratosphere -- at least in this measure. His VORP so far would be the best mark of his career, but he's improved in this measure every season of his career, and last year was at 3.4 (which doesn't seem a long ways from 4.0).

"...guys ...are likely to fall" -- I don't think that's true in the case of DeAndre Jordan, Kev -- he's not even playing quite as well as he did last year!

I was talking about this Box Plus Minus Value Over Replacement Player thing. Jordan's mark so far is the best of his career, though still just 0.4 points better than the last season. In my stuff, his overall rating was about the same through Sunday's games as it was last season. So, he's probably not due for much of a drop-off.

[Dat2U]

I don't trust any list that ranks Kyle Korver over John Wall in anything except resemblance to Ashton Kutcher.

Korver is one of the best off the ball threats in the league. i read a rather lengthy article last year that detailed just how much of a problem he is for the defense. His constant movement, size, quick release and deadly jumper force the defense to constantly adjust.

So far this season Korver is shooting 55% from 3 on nearly 7 attempts per game. His TS is currently 71%.

Yep, Korver is one of the better offensive weapons in the league and has turned into a respectable defender as well. I read some folks on the GB considered him one of the worst starting SFs in the league.... that's laughable, he's closer to Wall than to being one of the worst starters in the league IMO.

[Nivek]

I agree with you guys on Korver. Part of his value is that he cannot be left open -- period. If he's open, he makes his shots. And, he's automatic from the free throw line, so you don't foul him either. Plus, he moves extremely well without the ball, and makes really good use of screens. He's a tough cover.

[fishercob]

Let's play "who can cherry pick the most impressive stat," sponsored by Comcast SportsNet!

The Wizards are 22-12 in their last 34 regular season games.

[Nivek]

Let's play "who can cherry pick the most impressive stat," sponsored by Comcast SportsNet!

The Wizards are 22-12 in their last 34 regular season games.

Through Sunday's games, Kevin Seraphin had ALMOST as many rebounds per 40 minutes as Milwaukee Bucks PG Brandon Knight.

Did I do that right?

[fishercob]

Let's play "who can cherry pick the most impressive stat," sponsored by Comcast SportsNet!

The Wizards are 22-12 in their last 34 regular season games.

Through Sunday's games, Kevin Seraphin had ALMOST as many rebounds per 40 minutes as Milwaukee Bucks PG Brandon Knight.

Did I do that right?

No. No you did not.

[tontoz]

Ive given up on Seraphin. Setting aside his other problems, getting rebounds is a fundamental part of being a big man. He has made no improvement at all in that area. Some young guys learn, others don't. KS appears to be one that just doesn't learn.

He's in good shape though.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

I agree with you guys on Korver. Part of his value is that he cannot be left open -- period. If he's open, he makes his shots. And, he's automatic from the free throw line, so you don't foul him either. Plus, he moves extremely well without the ball, and makes really good use of screens. He's a tough cover.

I recall before Korver came out of Creighton statistical analyses weren't like they are today. He was not highly regarded. I remember thinking he'd be a very good player. I kind of eyeballed certain stats back then.

Back in the day I felt really far ahead of the average draft fan because certain numbers would give me a basis to try to project how a player would do at the next level. Draft Express didn't have a ton of video and all kinds of advanced stats then. The science of evaluating draft prospects wasn't what it is today.

No way should Korver have slipped so far in the draft.

Hate to stereotype, but I'm kind of wondering what was different about Korver's stats vs those of Adam Morrison? I thought he was going to be a good one. I also was SURE Morrison Almond would be good. I know in Almond's case I didn't take into account Rice's competition and I overestimated the impact of his high rebounds. But I can't recall why I missed so badly thinking Morrison would be very good (and why Korver really did turn out to be better than most others predicted).

[Nivek]

I recall before Korver came out of Creighton statistical analyses weren't like they are today. He was not highly regarded. I remember thinking he'd be a very good player. I kind of eyeballed certain stats back then.

Back in the day I felt really far ahead of the average draft fan because certain numbers would give me a basis to try to project how a player would do at the next level. Draft Express didn't have a ton of video and all kinds of advanced stats then. The science of evaluating draft prospects wasn't what it is today.

No way should Korver have slipped so far in the draft.

Hate to stereotype, but I'm kind of wondering what was different about Korver's stats vs those of Adam Morrison? I thought he was going to be a good one. I also was SURE Morrison Almond would be good. I know in Almond's case I didn't take into account Rice's competition and I overestimated the impact of his high rebounds. But I can't recall why I missed so badly thinking Morrison would be very good (and why Korver really did turn out to be better than most others predicted).

In YODA, Korver rated as a late-lotto, mid-first.

YODA had a "don't draft" grade on Almond. Good shooter, but lots of turnovers and fouls.

For Morrison, YODA would have said "don't draft". When I say "don't draft," I mean AT ALL -- not even 2nd round. Morrison scored efficiently at Gonzaga, but his non-scoring stats weren't good, his level of competition wasn't exceptional, and he measured up poorly in the physical attributes parts of YODA.

[Ruzious]

Ive given up on Seraphin. Setting aside his other problems, getting rebounds is a fundamental part of being a big man. He has made no improvement at all in that area. Some young guys learn, others don't. KS appears to be one that just doesn't learn.

He's in good shape though.

He pretty much has to shoot 70% from the floor just to not hurt the team. But, because he can "score the ball", there's going to continue to be a market for him, imo.

[Nivek]

To digress...Anthony Davis !!!

His PPA was 362 when I ran the numbers Monday. Obviously, tiny sample size, but...highest PPA since 1977-78 was a 284 by Lebron a couple years ago. I'd be SHOCKED if Davis can maintain that kind of production over a full season, but a) he's phenomenal, and b) he's 21.

Just for kicks, I ran his performance last season through my statistical doppelganger machine. His "most similars" included Olajuwon, Duncan, Shaq and David Robinson.

[Ruzious]

To digress...Anthony Davis !!!

His PPA was 362 when I ran the numbers Monday. Obviously, tiny sample size, but...highest PPA since 1977-78 was a 284 by Lebron a couple years ago. I'd be SHOCKED if Davis can maintain that kind of production over a full season, but a) he's phenomenal, and b) he's 21.

Just for kicks, I ran his performance last season through my statistical doppelganger machine. His "most similars" included Olajuwon, Duncan, Shaq and David Robinson.

So, the year after we sign Durant - when Davis is a UFA, Davis will see that the Wiz could be GOAT team if he joins them, and voila - he comes here for the veteran minimum . Wall, Beal, Durant, Davis, Gortat might be okay - with Otto off the bench.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

I recall before Korver came out of Creighton statistical analyses weren't like they are today. He was not highly regarded. I remember thinking he'd be a very good player. I kind of eyeballed certain stats back then.

Back in the day I felt really far ahead of the average draft fan because certain numbers would give me a basis to try to project how a player would do at the next level. Draft Express didn't have a ton of video and all kinds of advanced stats then. The science of evaluating draft prospects wasn't what it is today.

No way should Korver have slipped so far in the draft.

Hate to stereotype, but I'm kind of wondering what was different about Korver's stats vs those of Adam Morrison? I thought he was going to be a good one. I also was SURE Morrison Almond would be good. I know in Almond's case I didn't take into account Rice's competition and I overestimated the impact of his high rebounds. But I can't recall why I missed so badly thinking Morrison would be very good (and why Korver really did turn out to be better than most others predicted).

In YODA, Korver rated as a late-lotto, mid-first.

YODA had a "don't draft" grade on Almond. Good shooter, but lots of turnovers and fouls.

For Morrison, YODA would have said "don't draft". When I say "don't draft," I mean AT ALL -- not even 2nd round. Morrison scored efficiently at Gonzaga, but his non-scoring stats weren't good, his level of competition wasn't exceptional, and he measured up poorly in the physical attributes parts of YODA.

Thanks, Kevin. (And props on your son's music and your influence. Some day I'll share with you my son's experience with music. How the hell can you get an F in band? )

Almond had a lot of turnovers? I missed that. I remember he shot a lot of FTs (which I'm now learning might not translate from college to pros). I also probably didn't even look at his fouls.

Morrison balled out on national tv and Gonzaga was pretty good. Eyeball test made me think he'd be a scorer. I guess I whiffed on looking at who Gonzaga played that season.

[tontoz]

I saw AD being interviewed after the Lakers game. They had a big lead and he was not happy that they let the Lakers get into single digits.

He also commented that, as a young guy, he didn't know anything. He said it was important to accept that he didn't know much which opens his mind to learning from the older guys how to improve.

Pretty heady stuff coming from a 21 year old.

[dckingsfan]

Do we think that Webster will have any chance to return to statistical form after this 3rd back surgery?

I was asked by a friend of mine that is in a fantasy league. My guess was no. But I couldn't give him the Pro - what would be the reason he would get back to the same level?

[Nivek]

Do we think that Webster will have any chance to return to statistical form after this 3rd back surgery?

I was asked by a friend of mine that is in a fantasy league. My guess was no. But I couldn't give him the Pro - what would be the reason he would get back to the same level?

I guess the question would be: what statistical form? He's had one season that was average or better -- the contract year with the Wizards. Last season was right around his career average. I suspect he can get back to that level, but I wouldn't anticipate him getting back to his peak performance level.

[dckingsfan]

Do we think that Webster will have any chance to return to statistical form after this 3rd back surgery?

I was asked by a friend of mine that is in a fantasy league. My guess was no. But I couldn't give him the Pro - what would be the reason he would get back to the same level?

I guess the question would be: what statistical form? He's had one season that was average or better -- the contract year with the Wizards. Last season was right around his career average. I suspect he can get back to that level, but I wouldn't anticipate him getting back to his peak performance level.

OK, so the ceiling is probably last year's numbers. The floor is he doesn't play much at all.

Thanks

[Ruzious]

Bizarre Bucks stats - Brandon Knight is having a career year statistically while playing 66% of the Bucks minutes at PG. Howevuh, the Bucks are 28.4 points per hundred possessions [b]worse[/b] when he is on the floor vs off the floor. 28.4 worse. Horrendous. His backup, Jerryd Bayless, is + 21.4. Maybe it's the Giannis effect. G has stepped up his game - so far.

[GhostsOfGil]

Kev do you have the PPA numbers for the wiz guys yet? I'm also interested in getting thoughts on our 6-2 record. Our scheduled has been absurdly easy. I'm having trouble assessing the quality of this team. The Toronto game shed a lot of light on this specifically.

Edit- Went back and saw your latest blog post. Interesting to see PP rated so highly.

[Nivek]

Kev do you have the PPA numbers for the wiz guys yet? I'm also interested in getting thoughts on our 6-2 record. Our scheduled has been absurdly easy. I'm having trouble assessing the quality of this team. The Toronto game shed a lot of light on this specifically.

Edit- Went back and saw your latest blog post. Interesting to see PP rated so highly.

Glad you found it. My view on the 6-2 start is the same as it was after 5-2. "Worried" isn't really the right word, but it's in that area. The record is good, but the schedule has been favorable. So far, the Wiz have outscored their opponents by 1.9 points per game, but the league has outscored those opponents by 2.6 points per game. Pretty average so far despite the nice record.