Team/Player Stats Discussion

[fishercob]

Kev do you have the PPA numbers for the wiz guys yet? I'm also interested in getting thoughts on our 6-2 record. Our scheduled has been absurdly easy. I'm having trouble assessing the quality of this team. The Toronto game shed a lot of light on this specifically.

Edit- Went back and saw your latest blog post. Interesting to see PP rated so highly.

Glad you found it. My view on the 6-2 start is the same as it was after 5-2. "Worried" isn't really the right word, but it's in that area. The record is good, but the schedule has been favorable. So far, the Wiz have outscored their opponents by 1.9 points per game, but the league has outscored those opponents by 2.6 points per game. Pretty average so far despite the nice record.

I agree with the "concern" to an extent, but the truth of the matter is that the NBA isn't college football and there is no such thing as a "quality win." Beating a crappy team counts just as much as beating a good one. The Wizards are going to be judged two ways -- their regular season record, and how they do in the playoffs. And as distasteful as it might be, the NBA narrative machine is really powerful and important.

So if the Wizards win 50 -- even on the strength of an easy schedule --- the franchise is going to be able to spin positive value out of it.

Zach Lowe made a comment to this effect (not the narrative thing) on Simmons' pod yesterday -- the Wizards are beating bad teams, and they have struggled to do that in the past.

[Nivek]

I agree with the "concern" to an extent, but the truth of the matter is that the NBA isn't college football and there is no such thing as a "quality win." Beating a crappy team counts just as much as beating a good one. The Wizards are going to be judged two ways -- their regular season record, and how they do in the playoffs. And as distasteful as it might be, the NBA narrative machine is really powerful and important.

So if the Wizards win 50 -- even on the strength of an easy schedule --- the franchise is going to be able to spin positive value out of it.

Zach Lowe made a comment to this effect (not the narrative thing) on Simmons' pod yesterday -- the Wizards are beating bad teams, and they have struggled to do that in the past.

I agree with your point -- I don't think a team in pro sports needs to apologize for its schedule. They don't control that, and they don't control how good or bad their opponents are. My "concern" is more that the Wizards aren't actually playing like a 50-win team. Or even a 46-win team. Beating bad teams is good -- way better than the alternative. But, I think they'll need to play better if they're going to beat good teams, and they'll need to beat some good teams along the way to get to 48-50 wins.

[tontoz]

Zach Lowe made a comment to this effect (not the narrative thing) on Simmons' pod yesterday -- the Wizards are beating bad teams, and they have struggled to do that in the past.

They struggled twice to beat Indy even though Indy was missing their best players.

It would be a lot more encouraging if these wins, or just one of the wins, was as easy as the Raps win over us.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

I agree with the "concern" to an extent, but the truth of the matter is that the NBA isn't college football and there is no such thing as a "quality win." Beating a crappy team counts just as much as beating a good one. The Wizards are going to be judged two ways -- their regular season record, and how they do in the playoffs. And as distasteful as it might be, the NBA narrative machine is really powerful and important.

So if the Wizards win 50 -- even on the strength of an easy schedule --- the franchise is going to be able to spin positive value out of it.

Zach Lowe made a comment to this effect (not the narrative thing) on Simmons' pod yesterday -- the Wizards are beating bad teams, and they have struggled to do that in the past.

I agree with your point -- I don't think a team in pro sports needs to apologize for its schedule. They don't control that, and they don't control how good or bad their opponents are. My "concern" is more that the Wizards aren't actually playing like a 50-win team. Or even a 46-win team. Beating bad teams is good -- way better than the alternative. But, I think they'll need to play better if they're going to beat good teams, and they'll need to beat some good teams along the way to get to 48-50 wins.

I predicted just 42 wins because I thought Ariza was largely responsible for last season's success.

They look more like a 50 win team to me just because they have found ways to grind out wins. At times the defense has been intense. Wall looks good. The team lacks athleticism but there are focused guys who can compete. So far this is what I think. The schedule has been easy.

Sent from my SGH-M919 using RealGM Forums mobile app

[Nivek]

I agree with the "concern" to an extent, but the truth of the matter is that the NBA isn't college football and there is no such thing as a "quality win." Beating a crappy team counts just as much as beating a good one. The Wizards are going to be judged two ways -- their regular season record, and how they do in the playoffs. And as distasteful as it might be, the NBA narrative machine is really powerful and important.

So if the Wizards win 50 -- even on the strength of an easy schedule --- the franchise is going to be able to spin positive value out of it.

Zach Lowe made a comment to this effect (not the narrative thing) on Simmons' pod yesterday -- the Wizards are beating bad teams, and they have struggled to do that in the past.

I agree with your point -- I don't think a team in pro sports needs to apologize for its schedule. They don't control that, and they don't control how good or bad their opponents are. My "concern" is more that the Wizards aren't actually playing like a 50-win team. Or even a 46-win team. Beating bad teams is good -- way better than the alternative. But, I think they'll need to play better if they're going to beat good teams, and they'll need to beat some good teams along the way to get to 48-50 wins.

I predicted just 42 wins because I thought Ariza was largely responsible for last season's success.

They look more like a 50 win team to me just because they have found ways to grind out wins. At times the defense has been intense. Wall looks good. The team lacks athleticism but there are focused guys who can compete. So far this is what I think. The schedule has been easy.

Sent from my SGH-M919 using RealGM Forums mobile app

I hope you're right. The numbers suggest the Wizards have been pretty average both on offense and defense given the competition they've faced. An average team against this schedule would have 5-6 wins. Their offensive and defensive efficiency are right about average given who they've faced.

I will say that "average" might be good enough for 50 wins in the East this season.

[Hypnotizer]

Only 3 teams stay unbeaten at home: MEM, WAS and ATL.

[nate33]

I will say that "average" might be good enough for 50 wins in the East this season.

[Zonkerbl]

In the east all the kids are above average.

[Nivek]

To digress...Anthony Davis !!!

His PPA was 362 when I ran the numbers Monday. Obviously, tiny sample size, but...highest PPA since 1977-78 was a 284 by Lebron a couple years ago. I'd be SHOCKED if Davis can maintain that kind of production over a full season, but a) he's phenomenal, and b) he's 21.

Just for kicks, I ran his performance last season through my statistical doppelganger machine. His "most similars" included Olajuwon, Duncan, Shaq and David Robinson.

So, a week later, and Anthony Davis' PPA has gone...

Spoiler:

UP.

Through last night's games, his PPA is 372, which is outlandish. The Pelicans have become one of my favorite league pass teams.

[Dat2U]

To digress...Anthony Davis !!!

His PPA was 362 when I ran the numbers Monday. Obviously, tiny sample size, but...highest PPA since 1977-78 was a 284 by Lebron a couple years ago. I'd be SHOCKED if Davis can maintain that kind of production over a full season, but a) he's phenomenal, and b) he's 21.

Just for kicks, I ran his performance last season through my statistical doppelganger machine. His "most similars" included Olajuwon, Duncan, Shaq and David Robinson.

So, a week later, and Anthony Davis' PPA has gone...

Spoiler:

UP.

Through last night's games, his PPA is 372, which is outlandish. The Pelicans have become one of my favorite league pass teams.

I remember a certain poster who considers themselves to be quite knowledgable who was not sold on Anthony Davis being a franchise level player stating he's built like a twig and years away from making a positive contribution. He was pretty much the lone voice among the vast majority of us who knew that Davis was pretty special.

[dobrojim]

so would you predict he will have the highest PPA in the league by the end of the season?

(barring injury)

I think I would and heck, you never exactly told us all the factors that go into PPA (trade secret).

[Zonkerbl]

Well, do you expect him to continue shooting 58%, scoring 25 ppg the rest of the season? I think that's reasonable.

Do you think he will continue to average 11.7 rebounds per game the rest of the season? Sure, why not.

Will he continue to average only 1.1 turnovers a game despite high usage? Sure, he's a big. That's what's nice about big men.

Will he continue to take 6 fts a game and make them at a 77% rate? Sure!

Will he continue to average 4 blocks a game? Again, why the heck not?

Dunno what else might go into PPA but I don't see anything in the box score that doesn't look reasonable to expect for the rest of the season.

[Ruzious]

In the east all the kids are above average.

Life is good in the Wizards Home Companion.

At some point, do they have to play real teams?

[Nivek]

To digress...Anthony Davis !!!

His PPA was 362 when I ran the numbers Monday. Obviously, tiny sample size, but...highest PPA since 1977-78 was a 284 by Lebron a couple years ago. I'd be SHOCKED if Davis can maintain that kind of production over a full season, but a) he's phenomenal, and b) he's 21.

Just for kicks, I ran his performance last season through my statistical doppelganger machine. His "most similars" included Olajuwon, Duncan, Shaq and David Robinson.

So, a week later, and Anthony Davis' PPA has gone...

Spoiler:

UP.

Through last night's games, his PPA is 372, which is outlandish. The Pelicans have become one of my favorite league pass teams.

I remember a certain poster who considers themselves to be quite knowledgable who was not sold on Anthony Davis being a franchise level player stating he's built like a twig and years away from making a positive contribution. He was pretty much the lone voice among the vast majority of us who knew that Davis was pretty special.

I don't remember who that was. Maybe I had/have him on ignore. I know that Davis had the highest score in YODA since Shaq.

[dobrojim]

trying to remember who that was as well. No one is coming to mind.

[fishercob]

To digress...Anthony Davis !!!

His PPA was 362 when I ran the numbers Monday. Obviously, tiny sample size, but...highest PPA since 1977-78 was a 284 by Lebron a couple years ago. I'd be SHOCKED if Davis can maintain that kind of production over a full season, but a) he's phenomenal, and b) he's 21.

Just for kicks, I ran his performance last season through my statistical doppelganger machine. His "most similars" included Olajuwon, Duncan, Shaq and David Robinson.

So, a week later, and Anthony Davis' PPA has gone...

Spoiler:

UP.

Through last night's games, his PPA is 372, which is outlandish. The Pelicans have become one of my favorite league pass teams.

I remember a certain poster who considers themselves to be quite knowledgable who was not sold on Anthony Davis being a franchise level player stating he's built like a twig and years away from making a positive contribution. He was pretty much the lone voice among the vast majority of us who knew that Davis was pretty special.

[Nivek]

so would you predict he will have the highest PPA in the league by the end of the season?

(barring injury)

I think I would and heck, you never exactly told us all the factors that go into PPA (trade secret).

I think zonker's analysis is about right. His shooting percentage will probably come down some, but I don't see why his other numbers would necessarily fall. But, there's a TON of room for him to "decline" and still have the top PPA. Number two in the league right now is Stephen Curry -- at 271.

Usually, MVP candidates are in the 230-250 range. Of the guys who have been near the top the past few years, only Chris Paul is still there (240). Lebron is at 185. Durant hasn't played.

Davis is off to a start I haven't seen.

In terms of what goes into PPA, it's box score stats weighted by how much they contribute to winning. I also use team defense while the player is on the court (part of the defensive impact measurement), and a "degree of difficulty" factor based on an estimate of the level of competition the player faces while on the floor.

[tontoz]

[Zonkerbl]

Gosh, who could that possibly be?

[dobrojim]

mr spellcheck? What's that?