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Wizards "impressive" in their use of SportsVU analytics data

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Re: Wizards "impressive" in their use of SportsVU analytics 

Post#21 » by tontoz » Tue Jun 17, 2014 12:28 am

DCZards wrote:Even when the news about the Zards appears to be good...It doesn't take long for a bunch of Negative Nancys to show up and put their worn out spin on it. :o



And nobody knows worn out spin better than you.

Great call on the Finals BTW.
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Re: Wizards "impressive" in their use of SportsVU analytics 

Post#22 » by JWizmentality » Tue Jun 17, 2014 2:19 am

DCZards wrote:Even when the news about the Zards appears to be good...It doesn't take long for a bunch of Negative Nancys to show up and put their worn out spin on it. :o


I don't think it's being negative at all. You say you've built a better mouse trap? Why is there rat $h!t all over the place?
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Re: Wizards "impressive" in their use of SportsVU analytics 

Post#23 » by montestewart » Tue Jun 17, 2014 4:35 am

DCZards wrote:Even when the news about the Zards appears to be good…It doesn't take long for a bunch of Negative Nancys to show up and put their worn out spin on it. :o

For some, each Wizards tidbit is answered by a Cioran aphorism. Pessimism is only the realism of observation and experience. It's not good news. It only "appears" to be good. Sustainable success, that would be good news.
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Re: Wizards "impressive" in their use of SportsVU analytics 

Post#24 » by payitforward » Tue Jun 17, 2014 12:32 pm

Nivek wrote:In my experience with the front office (which is well finished except for sporadic emails/calls), Dat's point was right on target. Perhaps they've learned and are doing a better job, but I found their approach to data to be superficial and misguided. They were pleased with how much data they had available, but in my view they were looking for info to confirm what they already believed, they narrow-sliced data to the point of absurdity, they tended to ignore data that contradicted what they thought, and they tended to oversimplify their use of data in the decision-making process.

Maybe they're making better use of data now. (Though I'm dubious.)

Well, the guy says "...they use the match ups from the data very well. One of the most effective pick-and-roll match ups is Wall and Gortat or Wall and Nenê. Those two paired up are some of the most effective and we can measure that stuff and they're taking actions based on it."

Who knows? Maybe he's just giving strokes to a paying customer? But, if it's true, then there's some hope they'd turn around and use analytics in making draft picks, etc. In which case we could expect better results.

At the same time, this all seems to happen at a level well below Ernie and his "I'm an old basketball guy, and I know best" approach. I can't imagine Ernie is involved in game planning, which is what they're described as using the data for.

Put it another way -- a few guys in the organization look like they're good w/ this stuff. So... they'll probably get hired away! Maybe by Hinkie, the young Philly GM they describe as an early adopter?
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Re: Wizards "impressive" in their use of SportsVU analytics 

Post#25 » by payitforward » Tue Jun 17, 2014 12:42 pm

DCZards wrote:Even when the news about the Zards appears to be good...It doesn't take long for a bunch of Negative Nancys to show up and put their worn out spin on it. :o

...in which case, it doesn't take long for you to show up and put your worn out negative nancy spin on your fellow community participants!

Seems to me that mostly what you post is how it's no big deal that we passed on this or that good player or signed this or that mediocre player....

Or, do I have that wrong? Point me to an incisive example of analysis by you, Zards. I'd like to see it, and if I do I'll give you props for it. Happily. "Positive Paula."
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Re: Wizards "impressive" in their use of SportsVU analytics 

Post#26 » by payitforward » Tue Jun 17, 2014 12:46 pm

montestewart wrote:
DCZards wrote:Even when the news about the Zards appears to be good…It doesn't take long for a bunch of Negative Nancys to show up and put their worn out spin on it. :o

For some, each Wizards tidbit is answered by a Cioran aphorism. Pessimism is only the realism of observation and experience. It's not good news. It only "appears" to be good. Sustainable success, that would be good news.

Whoooaah! I'm pretty sure I never expected to see Emil Cioran's name and words in this forum! All right!

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Emil_Cioran
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Re: Wizards "impressive" in their use of SportsVU analytics  

Post#27 » by fishercob » Tue Jun 17, 2014 1:35 pm

Summary of this thread so far:

The SportsVU guys says he's impressed with how the Wizards have used the data.

People respond by saying "the Wizards management sucks, so......no."

Nuh uh, Yuh huh ensues.

I know I risk angering Ruz with this comment, but what a stupid discussion. The reason it's stupid is because no one here knows what we're actually arguing about -- including my friend Nivek who himself said he has very little contact with the front office any more.

Here's what we don't know:

(1) What data the Wiz are mining from SportsVu
(2) How they're using it. Specifically, we don't know who is analyzing the data, the conclusions they're drawing from it, and how they're communicating it to the decision makers in the front office and on the coaching staff -- nor do we know if and how these decision makers are using it.

What we actually know is that this guy said he's impressed by what the Wizards are doing. That's pretty much it.

That this guy's statement would morph into a referendum on long two's, Eric Maynor, etc. is abjectly stupid and a demonstration of this forum performing way, way below its potential. We know next to nothing about the subject at hand -- and that's okay. It's okay to not have the answers all the time. It's okay to just pose questions and wonder. Uninformed certitude is the worst.
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Re: Wizards "impressive" in their use of SportsVU analytics 

Post#28 » by miller31time » Tue Jun 17, 2014 2:05 pm

fishercob wrote:That this guy's statement would morph into a referendum on long two's, Eric Maynor, etc. is abjectly stupid and a demonstration of this forum performing way, way below its potential. We know next to nothing about the subject at hand -- and that's okay. It's okay to not have the answers all the time. It's okay to just pose questions and wonder. Uninformed certitude is the worst.


There's a correlation between the long-2 discussion and analytics. It's relevant to the topic at hand, even if it doesn't prove/disprove the SportsVU's assertion. I made no statement referring to the data gathered nor who interprets it. Is it possible or even probable that good, helpful advanced information is being collected and disseminated throughout the organization? Sure, as you accurately pointed out - we don't know. But one of the main causes of inefficiency for this team is the long-2 and one would think that would be captured by any team of analysts, especially paid analysts. So speculatively (and keep in mind, it's okay to speculate as long as you're not asserting fact, which I didn't), it would appear something is fishy in the analytics department, whether it's from those who compile the data or those who distribute it or those who make the choice to use or not use it.

My apologies if it bothered you, man.
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Re: Wizards "impressive" in their use of SportsVU analytics  

Post#29 » by Zonkerbl » Tue Jun 17, 2014 2:07 pm

I think "If the Wizards are so damn good at analytics, why do they take so many long twos and shoot such a poor percentage on them?" is a legit question.

It's sad we can't answer it, but it's a legit question nevertheless.
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Re: Wizards "impressive" in their use of SportsVU analytics 

Post#30 » by Dat2U » Tue Jun 17, 2014 2:15 pm

fishercob wrote:Summary of this thread so far:

The SportsVU guys says he's impressed with how the Wizards have used the data.

People respond by saying "the Wizards management sucks, so......no."

Nuh uh, Yuh huh ensues.

I know I risk angering Ruz with this comment, but what a stupid discussion. The reason it's stupid is because no one here knows what we're actually arguing about -- including my friend Nivek who himself said he has very little contact with the front office any more.

Here's what we don't know:

(1) What data the Wiz are mining from SportsVu
(2) How they're using it. Specifically, we don't know who is analyzing the data, the conclusions they're drawing from it, and how they're communicating it to the decision makers in the front office and on the coaching staff -- nor do we know if and how these decision makers are using it.

What we actually know is that this guy said he's impressed by what the Wizards are doing. That's pretty much it.

That this guy's statement would morph into a referendum on long two's, Eric Maynor, etc. is abjectly stupid and a demonstration of this forum performing way, way below its potential. We know next to nothing about the subject at hand -- and that's okay. It's okay to not have the answers all the time. It's okay to just pose questions and wonder. Uninformed certitude is the worst.


I don't know what crawled in your coffee and died this morning but I don't see what's so wrong with the discussion in this thread. No one is claiming to have all the answers, only questioning the original comment made regarding their use of the SportsVU technology. Especially after the head coach demonstratively points out during the year that he's not a fan of advanced statistics and then watching the amount long 2s we took over the course of last season.
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Re: Wizards "impressive" in their use of SportsVU analytics 

Post#31 » by fishercob » Tue Jun 17, 2014 2:26 pm

miller31time wrote:
fishercob wrote:That this guy's statement would morph into a referendum on long two's, Eric Maynor, etc. is abjectly stupid and a demonstration of this forum performing way, way below its potential. We know next to nothing about the subject at hand -- and that's okay. It's okay to not have the answers all the time. It's okay to just pose questions and wonder. Uninformed certitude is the worst.


There's a correlation between the long-2 discussion and analytics. It's relevant to the topic at hand, even if it doesn't prove/disprove the SportsVU's assertion. I made no statement referring to the data gathered nor who interprets it. Is it possible or even probable that good, helpful advanced information is being collected and disseminated throughout the organization? Sure, as you accurately pointed out - we don't know. But one of the main causes of inefficiency for this team is the long-2 and one would think that would be captured by any team of analysts, especially paid analysts. So speculatively (and keep in mind, it's okay to speculate as long as you're not asserting fact, which I didn't), it would appear something is fishy in the analytics department, whether it's from those who compile the data or those who distribute it or those who make the choice to use or not use it.

My apologies if it bothered you, man.


Zonkerbl wrote:I think "If the Wizards are so damn good at analytics, why do they take so many long twos and shoot such a poor percentage on them?" is a legit question.

It's sad we can't answer it, but it's a legit question nevertheless.


But what do long two's have to do with SportsVU? Shot distance and the efficiency of those shots is available everywhere -- NBA.com, 82games, basketball reference, etc. While I don't know the types of data that the Wizards are paying SportsVU for, I am supremely confident that it's not stuff that is freely available to the public.

So Zonk and miller, the long two question is a very legit one, but it's only marginally and tangentially related to this discussion; that is to say, the Wizards have struggled to put certain types of data-supported theories into practice. Can we conclude from that that they don't put other types of data-supported theories into successful practice, that they value them too much or too little or ignore them entirely? I don't think so, because again, what we know here is absolutely dwarfed by what we don't.
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Re: Wizards "impressive" in their use of SportsVU analytics  

Post#32 » by fishercob » Tue Jun 17, 2014 2:37 pm

[youtube]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fhGq2FMsoyI#t=291[/youtube]

I don't have time to watch this now, but hope to do so later. I thought some here might find this interesting.
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Re: Wizards "impressive" in their use of SportsVU analytics 

Post#33 » by montestewart » Tue Jun 17, 2014 2:38 pm

It's just a nice little button pushing thread.

I think "shouldn't the burden of proof be on the team with a long history of bad decisions, bad luck, and suck, rather than on justly skeptical fans?" is a legitimate question.

I'm always happy with success. Is that success? I'd be less skeptical if the source was an unnamed assistant GM who sounded envious, rather than the vendor of the product.

Maybe Rachel Ray and Paula Deen make great vegan dishes. I guess anything's possible. I'll try to be more open to these possibilities.
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Re: Wizards "impressive" in their use of SportsVU analytics 

Post#34 » by tontoz » Tue Jun 17, 2014 2:56 pm

If the Wizards are paying these SportsVU guys for advanced stats but ignoring the stats that are available for free that certainly leads to questions about their competence.
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Re: Wizards "impressive" in their use of SportsVU analytics  

Post#35 » by Nivek » Tue Jun 17, 2014 3:05 pm

At the risk of being repetitive, I'm totally speculating in this thread. Based on what I know of how the front office operates, I'm dubious that they're making good use of ANY data, much less the take from SportsVu. It could be different at the coaching staff level -- I have zero contact with the coaches.

BUT, I do think it's reasonable to question how influential and effective that data is when there are basic things they do a lot of (taking 2pt jumpers while shooting them badly) that analytics would discourage.

It's fair to ask: If the Wizards are so great at using these analytics, why do they shoot so many **** shots? I could probably put together a much longer list of questions about stuff they could theoretically be doing better with analytics. Although, it could be that they're completely aware, and that what they've decided to do is make compromises between what would seem to be optimal based on the global numbers, but doesn't necessarily fit with their roster. Ultimately, you need players to do the work, and the Wizards players have some limitations.

So, I agree with fish's point that we don't know a lot about this subject. It is fair to be skeptical, however.
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Re: Wizards "impressive" in their use of SportsVU analytics 

Post#36 » by dobrojim » Tue Jun 17, 2014 3:16 pm

fishercob wrote:Summary of this thread so far:

The SportsVU guys says he's impressed with how the Wizards have used the data.

People respond by saying "the Wizards management sucks, so......no."

Nuh uh, Yuh huh ensues.

I know I risk angering Ruz with this comment, but what a stupid discussion. The reason it's stupid is because no one here knows what we're actually arguing about -- including my friend Nivek who himself said he has very little contact with the front office any more.

Here's what we don't know:

(1) What data the Wiz are mining from SportsVu
(2) How they're using it. Specifically, we don't know who is analyzing the data, the conclusions they're drawing from it, and how they're communicating it to the decision makers in the front office and on the coaching staff -- nor do we know if and how these decision makers are using it.

What we actually know is that this guy said he's impressed by what the Wizards are doing. That's pretty much it.

That this guy's statement would morph into a referendum on long two's, Eric Maynor, etc. is abjectly stupid and a demonstration of this forum performing way, way below its potential. We know next to nothing about the subject at hand -- and that's okay. It's okay to not have the answers all the time. It's okay to just pose questions and wonder. Uninformed certitude is the worst.


There you go again...:)
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Re: Wizards "impressive" in their use of SportsVU analytics  

Post#37 » by FAH1223 » Tue Jun 17, 2014 4:00 pm

The Wall/Nene pick and roll was horrible this season.

Don't know what they're talking about
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Re: Wizards "impressive" in their use of SportsVU analytics 

Post#38 » by TGW » Tue Jun 17, 2014 4:16 pm

LOL sorry we aren't living up to your rigorous standards of message board posting, Fishercob. I hope to not disappoint you and the stick up your butt anymore this offseason. :D
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Re: Wizards "impressive" in their use of SportsVU analytics 

Post#39 » by Dat2U » Tue Jun 17, 2014 4:27 pm

FAH1223 wrote:The Wall/Nene pick and roll was horrible this season.

Don't know what they're talking about


Yep....

Athough this article is dated 2/28/14 I thought it had some merit in the discussion.

there’s a big difference between a Wall-Gortat pick-and-roll and a Wall-Nene pick-and-roll, which has produced just 0.85 points per 100 possessions. That’s one reason why Washington ranks 29th in pick-and-roll efficiency (better than only the Milwaukee Bucks).


http://hangtime.blogs.nba.com/2014/02/2 ... -the-suns/
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Re: Wizards "impressive" in their use of SportsVU analytics 

Post#40 » by Dat2U » Tue Jun 17, 2014 4:51 pm

DCZards wrote:Even when the news about the Zards appears to be good...It doesn't take long for a bunch of Negative Nancys to show up and put their worn out spin on it. :o


fishercob wrote:Summary of this thread so far:

The SportsVU guys says he's impressed with how the Wizards have used the data.

People respond by saying "the Wizards management sucks, so......no."

....

Here's what we don't know:

(1) What data the Wiz are mining from SportsVu
(2) How they're using it. Specifically, we don't know who is analyzing the data, the conclusions they're drawing from it, and how they're communicating it to the decision makers in the front office and on the coaching staff -- nor do we know if and how these decision makers are using it.

What we actually know is that this guy said he's impressed by what the Wizards are doing. That's pretty much it.

That this guy's statement would morph into a referendum on long two's, Eric Maynor, etc. is abjectly stupid and a demonstration of this forum performing way, way below its potential. We know next to nothing about the subject at hand -- and that's okay. It's okay to not have the answers all the time. It's okay to just pose questions and wonder. Uninformed certitude is the worst.


Of course, we'll likely never know the exact impact but In light of the complaints on the negativity, here's an example of some of the P&R adjustments they made during the playoffs which were helpful and may have come from SportsVU relationship.

http://www.bulletsforever.com/2014/5/14 ... yoffs-2014

It helped that the Wizards added a new wrinkle to their offense. They've found a lot of success on 1-3 pick and rolls with Trevor Ariza this postseason, but they took it a step further and added a roll man to the equation, turning it into a double screen.
---
Washington used this set a number of times in Game 5, and Indiana just couldn't crack it. Ariza and Gortat would often set their screens in succession (this is known as a staggered screen), or they would do it all at once
---
But the beauty of this set lies in all of the options Wall has at his disposal.

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