sashae wrote:IMO the 5th year salary is irrelevant due to the CBA expiration in '17. The financial landscape is TOTALLY unknown at this point, and fretting about Gortat's '18 contract is futile -- with the amount the cap is increasing yearly as well, it'd be unsurprising if that's a near "middle class" salary by the time the deal expires. Let's worry about then then and pillory Ernie for the stupid things he does in the now (hello, Otto Porter vs. Nerlens Noel.)
CBA uncertainty IMO is an argument for less than 100% guarrantee, front loading or in the very least flattening a long-term contract. With a few exceptionally terrible max deals, the deals from 1 to 2 times the average salary have historically been the worst for the owners. Even if the owners lose ground in a new CBA, I think they lose it to rookies, vet minimum players and/or star players, not the NBA "upper middle class".
If Gortat was in his early 20s and the deal was covering his prime, I could see being willing to take the risk. Howver this contract is for the end of his career as an effective NBA player. Even if his production stays strong into his mid-30s it is unlikely that his availability(old players are a bigger injury risk) will.