stevemcqueen1 wrote:What? This post-departure Ariza boosting is getting out of hand. We're going to take a big step back because we lost our fifth most important starter from last season? A pure 3&D wing that was 10th on the team in usage. Nevermind the likelihood Wall and Beal improve, Porter actually gives us something, and the bench is much better. We replaced Ariza with a good player. If anything, Pierce might still be a better player. Ariza is a pure 3 & D player. Pierce is a lot more than that. I don't think there is a single aspect of offense that Ariza is better than Pierce at. And while Ariza is a very good defender, he ain't Jimmy Butler, Paul George, Kawhi Leonard, or Tony Allen. Losing him doesn't wreck your defense. Especially since Pierce is a good defender and Otto Porter is probably a really good defender.
Eh. I love Otto Porter's all game potential, his instincts etc. But his lateral speed is lacking. And there are bully SF's who will move him off position whenever they feel like it. Whatever his potential, no one's gonna see him as the answer when we are getting torched by the DJ Augustines of the league. Wittman used Ariza to defend spots 1-4 this year, for a top 5 defense for much of the year. Of the players you cite, Ariza on defense compares well with any of the names mentioned, holding opposing SFs below their season average over the course of the year. Otto, he's a gangly redshirt rookie, will suffer from referee bias until he develops a defensive rep; foul troubles are in his future for a little bit.
Years ago Popovich stated it and it seems proven true, the two players you need most on defense in the no-hand-check era are a show-and-recover Big who can guard the pick & roll but still make it back to the paint to challenge on the interior, and a versatile long player who you can send at whatever perimeter guy has the hot hand that night, force them to miss or make lateral passes instead of hitting threes or driving past.
A healthy Nene gives us the first, as well as any big in the league. I suspect the 2nd guy is not on our roster yet. I'd love to believe Otto's length, positioning, and BBIQ make up the difference, but right now I see him likely to get smeared on picks, and chasing behind those quick-twitch 1's and 2's who can sidestep him and strafe into the interior.
Our perimeter D will be somewhat of a liability this year. Terrible? Maybe not. Pierce was a good defender, under Thibbs, with Garnett and Perk behind him, and Rondo challenging the ball pressure. Maybe we have the equivalent in Nene, Gortat, and Wall. Not quite as good, nor is Pierce that same Celtics Pierce. But he's a smart defender, strong enough to hold his ground, I do like the pick-up, even with questions about chemistry. But perimeter defense is no longer a game-winning strength for us. Just a probability.
Ariza was in a contract year last season, playing with a PG that made his game. If Pierce stays healthy, I bet that not only does he have a better season than Ariza this year, he and Otto Porter are better for us this year than Ariza and Webster were last year. As far as whether PP fits in our offense, a guy with his ability to create for himself and others, particularly in the mid range doesn't fit? He's a far better career 3 pt shooter than Ariza too. In terms of transition offense, Pierce can't shoot open trailing 3s too?
Check the shot charts. Pierce, Beal, (even Nene and Humphries) all take their preferred shot from the left elbow and out. When playing well in the past, Webster found a role on this squad by being able to hit the corner three from the Right side (and Otto liked the right side as well, though he seems comfy wherever you put him). Okay I could design sets to take advantage of that overload, but Ariza and Wall had a synergy that amounted to a league leading number and % of assists to that leftside corner three.
Can Pierce hit that shot? He can. Did so last year at a good rate when left open in small ball sets, drawing the Bigs out to him. But he had a good % in the games I saw simply because those were wide open shots for him. The bigs did not chase on that play. Can he still do it when guarded tighter? By SFs? Hmm, maybe, he's tough. But only really started to come on strong when he was the small ball Big out there. That's not his role here. He and Beal may be battling for real estate on the court.
Then too Wall I suspect will defer to him. Which is fine in terms of short term accomplishment, Pierce is a proven scorer, more efficient, more versatile. But in terms of the long term development of this team, I want Wall cocky and attacking and learning where and when he can attack and finish strong. Right, Pierce is not a 3&D guy, but a 3&D guy is a proven fit next to John. I want him with space to attack, so he can develop that mindset.
Also, up tempo teams that struggle to run half court offense are the ones who struggle in the playoffs, not vice versa. Pierce upgrades our half court offense because he's a much better offensive player than Ariza.
And as far as chemistry with Wall goes, if Pierce can play with Rondo, he can play with Wall. Playing with Wall is at least half the reason Pierce signed with us.
You really think we're going to be lucky to get out of the first round this season? Just who do you think is beating us?
Well that's a fair point. In the debauched and degraded East there are no juggernauts. IF Rose stays healthy they are really tough. IF the Cavs gel by year's end they are unguardable. Miami will have an oddball inside out team with Bosh and McBob shooting long ball from the perimeter while Deng and Wade back down their man in the low post, they'll beat some teams who scramble to adjust. Charlotte with Lance, Kemba, and AlJeff are better than they were. With good health we're in the conversation with any of them.
And your point on post season offense is well taken. Even if in postseason Defense we don't have a shutdown guy.
Are we a better team without Ariza's contract, and with the players we landed for that cap space? Yes, we are. In the regular season especially. We will be fun to watch. And in the post season, the expectation has to be that Pierce's experience as a lynchpin player on a championship team adds a toughminded aspect to young players learning how it is done. That may take us deeper than otherwise on attitude and clutch-nessness.
Which long term is the best benefit for this squad. The player who most needs to learn from Pierce's game, and most stands to benefit, is Porter. And Glen Rice actually. Both show suggestions that they can play as he has done, with a versatile game deadly from any part of the floor, not requiring the fastest footspeed to get the job done. And John Wall needs to learn to play in the half court, as that is his weakness right now, so maybe the discomfort works to the positive over the long haul, even if I personally am tired in advance about the conversation on whether John Wall is not worth the bla bla bla....
But would I love him to play as well as Rondo? Or Rondo with a three ball eventually? Yes, yes I would. The two active players I want him to aspire to are Rondo (his closest comparator) and Tony Parker (staying in constant motion to put pressure on the defense and use your speed as an asset always, no hesitation or stopping to watch). Otherwise I'd say study Kevin Johnson, another speed guard who had that blow-by gear but was always under control even at 9000 rpm.
